Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized
Re-Posted Oct 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Merkel remains the face of Europe outside of the continent and the risk of Merkel losing the Chancellorship will be a serious crack in the confidence of the Euro. The Hesse election is now taking place and what is at risk here is Chancellor Angela Merkel and her grand coalition. The voters will decide Sunday whether Merkel’s supporters will survive politically. What is at stake is the future of the CDU itself and possibly also her SPD colleague. With the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the socialistic ideas of the SPD, the SPD is coming to the conclusion that they see no future in maintaining the coalition with Merkel’s CDU. Following the Bavarian election two weeks ago, the rise of the AfD has placed Markel at risk. The Bavarian election turned out to be truly a referendum on the CSU’s anti-Merkel position in Germany. Under pressure from the nativist AfD, the CSU chose to imitate the far-right party’s anti-immigrant and anti-European rhetoric to win with whatever lies it would take. The coalition is breaking apart and a loss in Hesse may see political change in Germany before the end of November.
There is a rising view that Merkel has to go because of her immigrate/refugee policy that has undermined not just Germany, but the entire EU as a whole. A loss for the CDU in Hesse will most likely put pressure on Merkel to step down. In the CDU talk is that the Secretary-General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has the best chances for succession. Ironically, Kramp-Karrenbauer does not want to be endorsed by Merkel as the talk behind the curtain goes. The fear is that Merkel has perhaps less the 20% support among Germans in general and that can be toxic for anyone she would endorse as her heir. Some are claiming that Merkel can still prevail. Other say she would have to be dragged out by her hair before she would relinquish he political position. Meanwhile, the Euro hangs in the balance