Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Feb 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
It is possible to include heating elements in wind turbines to prevent freezing. They never took that into consideration in Texas where the wind turbines probably supply as much as 10% of the power. The same problem took place in Germany. Nobody seems to have done their research into historic weather patterns.
I have said many times that in school, I was confronted with a real conflict between Physics class and Economics. The first said nothing is random and the latter said everything was so the government can manipulate the economy i.e. Marxism.
The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor, is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe.
In the coming Geometry of Time (soon to be published), I show the evolution of cycle theory and all the people who have contributed. I listened to a presentation of Sallie Baliunas and her finding of weather cycles from ice core samples. To my astonishment, the 300-year cycle she determined from the ice core samples aligned with the 309.6-year wave fairly closely of the Economic Confidence Model. Where my research had been derived from studying the history of the monetary system and the global economy, I did not conclude as to a direct cause behind the cycle other than its existence. When I saw her work, I went up to tell her what this really meant. It was the rise and fall of civilization over the course of 6000 years.
Clearly, one of the most significant factors driving the weather is the energy output of the sun and that means our entire universe is part of the cycle. I have explained how the type of energy wave differ between solar maximum and solar minimum which also correlate to when earthquakes take place with the rising belief that the gamma rays penetrate the surface of the earth during solar minimum and may be part of the cause behind earthquakes and volcanos which also correspond to cyclical waves.
We have input all the weather data for it has been extremely critical as a driving force in the long-term direction of the world economy. These forecasts are by no means my opinion. That is no way to forecast anything. We are all human and we will be right and wrong because we do not consider all the variables in a complex world.
Wind turbines need to be protected against cold. This is a regular event of Arctic Oscillations that have a clearly defined cyclical pattern.