Trying to Forecast Long-Term Technology Trends


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have a hard time envisioning this age of knowledge some claim is behind cryptocurrencies and others claim is behind robots that necessitate a guarantee welfare system. Do you give any credence to these type of forecasts of the long-term future?

BG

ANSWER: No. This idea that we advance to a higher state of knowledge is rather absurd. We evolve with technology, but it is not going to produce world peace. There was a German electrical engineer by the name of Charles Proteus Steinmetz who had made a dramatic forecast with the invention of electricity back in 1923. He said that by 2023, electricity would be doing all the hard work and people would not have to toil for more than four hours a day. Steinmetz also envisioned cities free of pollution and litter in a century’s time.

If we look at electricity, yes it is cleaner and would produce less pollution if you generated by solar or nuclear. He could not forecast in 1923 nuclear energy nor could he fathom the computer so we are not working less but can work even more from anywhere. The danger of trying to make long-term forecasts in technology is that the trend can be changed by a development in a parallel field. This is why in designing Socrates, I taught it how to analyze rather than create fixed rules. In this manner, it will evolve with technology. Who knows, perhaps they discover a way to get energy from Azuki beans that replaced everything.

Nobody can know the discoveries that await us long-term. Who knows, perhaps we can one day create black holes and appear on the other side of the universe. It may sound like complete fiction today no down as traveling under the sea did to people who read 20th Thousand Leagues under the Sea by Jules Verne (1828–1905)  in 1870.

It is best to just go with the flow. The markets pick up changes in technology. Just pay attention.

11:00pm Update Hurricane Florence – Slight Weakening as Storm Stays On Predicted Course…


According to the 11:00pm advisory Hurricane Florence has weakened to a Category 2 storm with winds at 110mph.  Forward speed is still around 17mph and it is located approximately 280 miles east south-east of Wilmington North Carolina. [16 hrs away]

Time Lapse Forecast Map Available Here

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday. (read more)

(Link to National Hurricane Center)

Hurricanes – Mostly The Aftermath…


As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes.  I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.

But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value.  Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.

When the winds reach around 40mph, the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power.  This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild.  Don’t expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.

Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary.  There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.

Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks.  There’s a sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget.  It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar.  A damn scary roar that just won’t quit…. it will… eventually, but at the time you are hearing it, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.

A constant, and pure rage of scary wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms… hurricane wind just starts and stays, sometimes for hours.  Relentless and damn scary…. it just won’t let up.  And then, depending on her irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, hopefully she stops.

Then silence.  No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.

Nature goes mute.  It’s weird.

We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.

Oh, if she wants, she’ll keep dumping buckets on you as she wanders away.  Buckets. Not pails, garbage can sized buckets.  After the scour, yup, nature too has a rinse cycle.

If your town, city or hamlet is not underwater, there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process.  Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west.  A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up.   Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.

But first, there will be an assessment.  The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Street-by-street everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid.  Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.

Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.

It will all be cattywampus.

Trees gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.

I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.

Stay away from power-lines.

Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months.  Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system.  When that raging Florence takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.

It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.

Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.

Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs.  Like I said, everything is cattywampus.  Your brain will need to reboot and rewire.  In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.

No street signs. Likely no stop signs.  No traffic lights.

Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION.  Even the major intersections.

You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit.  You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention.  Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.

Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before.  It ain’t normalville now.

Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too.  In the aftermath, there’s no class structure.  Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess.  Everyone is equally a mess.

The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.

You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together.  If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane.  Git-r-done lives there.

Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood.  Figure out who’s got chainsaws and set about clearing the road.  If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.

Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc.  It’s a process.  Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path.  Just deal with it.

Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet.  It’ll be ok.

Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk.  You will be surrounded by jerks….  elevate yourself.  If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk.  Keep your wits about you and stay calm.

Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you pass a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks.  Just simple “thanks”.  Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get all unnecessarily familiar, a simple “thank you for your help” will generally suffice.  You know, ordinary people skills.

Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts.  If you eventually start getting power back, and see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”.  If you can pay their tab, do it.  If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.

Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network.  Those will get power before other locales without power.  Fuel outlets are a priority.  Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.

Remember, you are the first responder for your neighborhood.  Don’t quit.

Recovery is a process.  Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.  Take care of your family, friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.

It’ll be ok.

It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.

√Andrew

√Jeanne

√Frances

√Ivan

√Charley

√Irma

Keep a good thought.  Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.

It’ll be OK.  Promise.

A Message From President Trump About Hurricane Florence…


The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center is 2:00pm today.  President Trump delivers a strong message of caution and concern ahead of the storm’s arrival.

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On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday. Florence is still forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast.

President Trump FEMA Press Briefing in Oval Office – Hurricane Florence Preparations (video and transcript)…


Earlier this afternoon President Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence held a press briefing in the oval office along with FEMA Administrator Brock Long and DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen to discuss concerns and preparation in advance of hurricane Florence.

Those in the forecast areas are strongly advised to pay close attention to local officials and heed all evacuation orders. Florence is projected to be a long-duration event for the eastern seaboard and mid-Atlantic region.  Severe, possibly catastrophic, flooding is likely.

.

[Transcript] – Oval Office – 3:13 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Okay, thank you very much. I’ve received a briefing from Secretary Nielsen, Administrator Long, and my senior staff regarding Hurricane Florence and other tropical systems that will soon impact the United States and its territories. The safety of American people is my absolute highest priority. We are sparing no expense. We are totally prepared. We’re ready. We’re as ready as anybody has ever been.

And it looks to me, and it looks to all of — a lot of very talented people that do this for a living, like this is going to be a storm that’s going to be a very large one — far larger than we’ve seen in perhaps decades. Things can change, but we doubt they will at this stage. It’s a pretty late stage. We doubt they’re going to be veering very far off course.

The places that are in the way and in the most jeopardy would be Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina — that area. And again, they haven’t seen anything like what’s coming at us in 25, 30 years — maybe ever. It’s tremendously big and tremendously wet. Tremendous amounts of water.

So I’ve spoken with the governors of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. They’re prepared. We’re prepared. We’re working very well in conjunction with the governors.

I’d like to ask Brock Long, our Administrator, who’s done so well for us in Texas and Florida — we have something that could very well be very similar to Texas, in the sense that it’s tremendous amounts of water. Texas was the one that had, I would say, to this point, Brock, probably more water than we’ve ever seen in a storm or a hurricane. And it went out for seconds and thirds. We’ve never seen anything like it.

But FEMA, as you know, did a fantastic job, and a fantastic job also in Florida. And I’d like to ask Brock, if you would, to just say a few words to the media as to where it is now, what’s going to be happening, and how well prepared we are.

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Thank you, Mr. President. Unfortunately, Hurricane Florence is setting out to be a devastating event to the Carolinas, and potentially Virginia as well.

So as you can see, they’re forecasting a major landfalling storm — Category 3 or 4 storm at landfall. The biggest hazard that we’re worried about is storm surge. That’s the primary driver of the evacuations that are underway by the states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia right now. But as this system comes in and makes landfall, during the weekend it’s forecast to stall out, lose its strength and its steering currents, and drop copious amounts of rainfall.

Unfortunately, the remnants of Gordon passed through the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend and dropped a lot of rain, saturating rivers. So, Hurricane Florence, as it comes in and puts anywhere between 20 and 30 inches more in isolated areas, could create a lot of inland flooding.

So, right now, sir, we’re supporting the governors with achieving their life safety evacuation and movements. We’re focused on mass care and sheltering. And then we’ll be focused on helping them to execute their response and recovery goals.

THE PRESIDENT: What are the chances that it veers off course and the hit won’t be so direct? What are the chances of that?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Unfortunately, I believe there’s quite a bit of certainty in the track forecast because the forward speed is picking up. It’s getting faster. And when systems do that, the track forecast becomes a lot more accurate. And I think the expectation needs to be set with the citizens in this area that, if you’ve been asked to leave, get out of the areas that are going to flood, and get into a facility that can withstand the winds.

Let’s set the expectations as well: This has an opportunity of being a very devastating storm. The power is going to be off for weeks. You’re going to be displaced from your home in the coastal areas. And there will be flooding in the inland areas as well.

So these are going to be statewide events. The hazards will be statewide.

THE PRESIDENT: Thanks. You wanted to show us this one then?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Yeah. This is a seven-day rainfall graphic. As you can see, the pink areas and the purple areas indicate 20 inches. That’s mean area rainfall; that’s an average rainfall amount. But you may see isolated amounts greater — into the 30-inch range — over Virginia, the central portions of Virginia and West Virginia. And these impacts are — they’re going to be through the Mid-Atlantic. So we’re coordinating not only with South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, but other Mid-Atlantic states, all the way to Delaware.

THE PRESIDENT: Good. And it has been great coordination. I have to tell you, the states have been terrific. Everybody is working together. The governors and all of their representatives have been absolutely fantastic. And FEMA — there’s nobody like you people. I mean, what they’re doing is incredible.

Do you have any questions for Secretary Nielsen or for Brock Long, please? Anybody?

Q What lesson do we take from what happened in Puerto Rico? How do we apply the lessons we took from Puerto Rico?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think Puerto Rico was incredibly successful. Puerto Rico was, actually, our toughest one of all because it’s an island, so you just — you can’t truck things onto it. Everything is by boat. We moved a hospital into Puerto Rico — a tremendous military hospital in the form of a ship. You know that.

And I actually think — and the Governor has been very nice. And if you ask the Governor, he’ll tell you what a great job. I think probably the hardest one we had, by far, was Puerto Rico because of the island nature. And I actually think it was one of the best jobs that’s ever been done with respect to what this is all about.

Puerto Rico got hit not with one hurricane but with two. And the problem with Puerto Rico is their electric grid and their electric generating plant was dead before the storms ever hit. It was in very bad shape. It was in bankruptcy. It had no money. It was largely — you know, it was largely closed.

And when the storm hit, they had no electricity — essentially before the storm. And when the storm hit, that took it out entirely.

The job that FEMA and law enforcement and everybody did, working along with the Governor in Puerto Rico, I think was tremendous. I think that Puerto Rico was an incredible, unsung success.

Texas, we had been given A-plusses for. Florida, we’ve been given A-plusses for. I think, in a certain way, the best job we did was Puerto Rico, but nobody would understand that. I mean, it’s harder to understand. It was very hard — a very hard thing to do because of the fact they had no electric. Before the storms hit, it was dead, as you probably know.

So we’ve gotten a lot of receptivity, a lot of thanks for the job we’ve done in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico was very important.

And, by the way, speaking of Puerto Rico, they’re going to be affected, pretty much, pretty soon by something else that’s on its way. Is that right?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Potentially, Hurricane Isaac right now is tracking south of the island, but we are — we have several thousand people inside Puerto Rico right now working on long-term recovery that have shifted to the response mode to monitor as Isaac passes to the south.

THE PRESIDENT: We do not want to see Hurricane Isaac hit Puerto Rico. That’s all we need. But we have a big hurricane out there, and it’s sort of skirting along Puerto Rico and the edge of Puerto Rico. That would not be good.

Q Mr. President, how much money do you think you’ll need for recovery efforts to this next hurricane? And do you have that already, or do you need to get it?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, we have it currently. Obviously, these are all unanticipated, so we’ll go to Congress. Congress will be very generous, because we have no choice. This is the United States. And whether it’s Texas or Florida or, frankly, if it’s Virginia — because Virginia, it’s looks like it’s very much in the path. Maryland, by the way, could be affected — very seriously affected — just to add. It’s a little bit outside of the path. And then, of course, South Carolina and North Carolina. I think that any amounts of money, whatever it takes, we’re going to do.

But we’re already set up. We have tremendous trucking systems, we have food systems. We have a lot of — a lot of contractors waiting. But for the most part, its been handled by FEMA, and also weve coordinated locally. We have food for days. We have emergency equipment and generators for many days. We should be in great shape.

Now, Ive also heard it could be 21 and 22 inches. If you can imagine what that is — 22 inches of rain. It is not something that weve had. Certainly, weve never had this on the East Coast. So — but I think were very well prepared and very well set up. Wouldnt you say?

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Yeah. I think this storm right here is very similar to Hurricane Hugo and almost like a combination of Hurricane Hugo in 89 and Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

But look, successful disaster response and recovery is one that’s locally executed, state managed, and federally supported. So what FEMA is doing is pre-positioning the federal government’s assets to support each one of those governors that are about to be impacted with achieving their response and recovery goals. And thats the way emergency management and disaster response works best.

I also think — Id like to point out that what we learned last year is we have got to build a true culture of preparedness within our citizens here in America. This is a partnership, and it takes anything from neighbor helping neighbor all the way to the federal government when it comes to correctly responding and recovering.

Q Can we ask you about the (inaudible) and power outages? What things are right now to —

ADMINISTRATOR LONG: Thats a great question. So FEMA doesnt own the power grids in any one of these states. A lot of them are owned by the private industry. So what we have are business emergency operation center calls. Were concentrating with the private vendors to make sure that they have strong mutual aid programs in place. And we set up incident support bases to help stage power crews coming in from other states. And largely, its FEMAs job to get out of the way to make sure that the private power companies can get into these areas to set up their grid. We dont own it. We dont own it.

THE PRESIDENT: But unlike Puerto Rico, you have very strong power companies. Theyre very powerful, very well managed in the sense that they have — they have tremendous overcapacity. They are going to do a great job. They also have made contracts with other power companies that wont be affected, and theyre going to be coming in — just to answer your question, theyll be coming in to the various states that will be affected.

Theyre going to be coming in very strongly, and theyre already lining up. Theyll be here probably, for the most part, tomorrow, or shortly before the storm hits. So theyre going to be in great shape. These are, really, states that have very, very strong power authorities.

Q Whats your message, Mr. President, to people who might not have evacuated yet?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, thats very risky. I mean, again, weve never seen anything quite like this on the East Coast, at least. And if it turns out to be as bad — you know, we go out there; you have people that actually go fly through these storms. These are very brave people. But they fly through.

And from what Im hearing, the sites that they’re seeing have not been seen on the East Coast before. So I would say everybody should get out. I mean, you have to listen to your local authorities and — whether youre upland or downland. But depending on where you are, you have to listen and you have to get out. If they want you to get out — because its going to be impossible to have people get in there, whether its law enforcement or FEMA or anybody else. Once this thing hits, its going to be really, really bad along the coast. Okay?

Anything else?

Q Do you believe Rob Porter and Gary Cohns denials today?

THE PRESDIENT: Ah, well, you shouldnt be talking about that right now because it doesnt matter. But I really appreciate their statement. Their statement was excellent. And they both said that beautiful, which shows that the book is just a piece of fiction.

Thank you very much. I think were very well prepared. And thank you all very much. Appreciate it.

Q Do you mind giving us an update on the trade talks?

THE PRESIDENT: Trade talks are coming along very well. Were dealing with China, as you know. Weve taken a very tough stand on China, I would say, to put it mildly. And with Canada, they want to make a deal very much. Me? If we make it, thats good. And if we dont make it, thats okay too. Canada wants to make a deal. Well see if we can get them into the deal we already have with Mexico. I think the deal with Canada is coming along very well, and weve all been dealing in good faith. Okay?

Thank you everybody.

END 3:26 P.M. EDT

[National Hurricane Center] At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by satellite near latitude 27.5 North,
longitude 67.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall. (link)

The Fascinating Story of the Largest Geological Structure on Earth


 

COMMENT: Just to let you know, already we have a record-breaking cold here in Minnesota. It did not even wait for Labor Day.

DT

REPLY: Yes I know. Things are changing and we really should stop this global warming nonsense and begin to actually investigate what is unfolding. Granted, this may not produce more taxes from the government. But the purpose of governments is not to tax the people, but to protect them. A reader sent in this video link on explaining the dynamics of the earth. It is just 20 minutes, but it is fascinating to watch. You may begin to comprehend that the planet just may be more powerful than we think we are

Typhoon Jebi Hit Japan with Amazing Force


 

UPDATE: TS Gordon Approaches Mississippi Coastline – Anticipated Landfall at Hurricane Strength….


Gordon is anticipated to strike the Mississippi coast as a category one hurricane. Current wind-speeds are 65mph, with strengthening anticipated.

[National Hurricane Center] At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast. A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected after landfall, with a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north forecast to occur on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland. (link)

11:00pm Gordon Advisory – Fast Moving Storm Expected To Reach Hurricane Strength…


Louisiana Governor declares state of emergency. Coastal Mississippi and Alabama should be on alert and prepared to finalize storm preparations by noon Tuesday.

[National Hurricane Center] At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Gordon moves inland.  [more from Hurricane Center]

Head’s Up: TS Gordon – Coastal FL Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana…


Tropical Storm Gordon is anticipated to move into the warm Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then strengthen while taking a West-northwest path toward the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coast.  High probability will make landfall as a hurricane.

This storm will move fast while simultaneously strengthening. Residents in coastal west-FL Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana would be well advised to be proactive, watch closely and begin initial hurricane preparation.

[Hurricane Advisory] At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 81.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida this afternoon and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.

The center of Gordon will approach the coast within the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. [Link to NOAA Hurricane Center]