China’s First AI TV Anchor


China has scored a real first and it may be an answer to the FAKE NEWS problem in the United States and Europe. A TV anchor has joined a Chinese news agency, but with a twist: he isn’t human. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency has launched an artificial intelligence (AI), anchor. “English AI Anchor” debuted Thursday at the World Internet Conference in the country’s eastern Zhejiang Province.

Modeled on the agency’s Zhang Zhao presenter, the new anchor learns from live videos and is able to work 24 hours a day, reporting via social media and on the Xinhua website. ”‘He’ learns from live broadcasting videos by himself and can read texts as naturally as a professional news anchor,” the company said in an online statement.

Now if we can do this for politicians and judges, it will end war and injustice!!!!

We were granted our Business license in China and they are quite thrilled to have an AI computer that writes analytical reports on Chinese equities, markets, and currencies. We too are thrilled to have the largest forecasting operation on the Chinese markets that is completely computer driven without human biases.

Tectonic Plate Splits in Two Raising Risks for West Coast


San Andreas Fault in California Can Be Observed from the Sky

Recent studies have revealed that the massive earthquake which stuck Mexico actually split a tectonic plate in two. This has done more than just shaken the ground. It has also shaken up the geologist community for this may even introduce a greater risk to California. That quake took place on September 7th, 2017, and was a magnitude 8.2 earthquake that struck southern Mexico. Earthquakes are common events around the world in different degrees. However, this powerful event wasn’t any run-of-the-mill tremor. It actually split the tectonic plate itself.

Normally, earthquakes take place where two tectonic plates meet. They constantly move around Earth’s surface, either grinding side by side, or they will crumble which ends up creating mountain ranges. They can also descend under another plate in what is referred to as a subduction zone. However, this one was a huge intraslab quake which resulted in breaking a plate in two. This means there is now a greater risk for more earthquakes along this fault line.

New Discovery Proves History Books Were WRONG!


 

I have previously written how the academics have REFUSED to revise history even when the evidence has been right in their face. I have previously written that the date for the eruption of Vesuvius could not possibly historically correct based upon a single coin that was discovered in the dig. My position based upon a single coin has now at last been confirmed by writing on a wall recently discovered.  This time, they have NO CHOICE!!!!

Coins have often called into question recorded history. The date of the destruction of Pompei near Naples has been a classic example of how the academic community has defended old interpretations and refuse to revise previous assumptions. The history books have written in stone that Vesuvius erupted burying Pompeii definitively on August 24th, 79 AD as the date carved in stone. This date has been interpreted from a letter to the historian Tacitus some 25 years following the event. This was his old friend Pliny the Younger who provided an eye-witness account of the eruption. He states that the eruption took place on Nonum Kal September (the ninth day before the Kalends of September), which has been calculated as being August 24th. However, Tacitus was translated during the 16th Century which remains questionable on many points. The ancient historian Cassius Dio directly states that the disaster took place “towards the end of the harvesting season” which would be in October, not August.

The excavation of Pompeii revealed that the stores were selling fruit that would not have been seasonal for August. There were amphoras filled with wine after the harvest which had been sealed and ready for transportation and sale. Many of the people discovered were wearing warm clothing. That has been dismissed as they just wanted to cover themselves for maintaining a wrong interpretation for decades. But during excavations of Pompeii’s “House of the Gold Bracelet” in 1974, 180 silver and 40 gold coins were discovered with the bodies of a group of victims. The coins were buried with the people attesting to their link with the eruption. The coins were never cataloged until 2006. There was one coin that confirmed that the date for the eruption of Pompeii was incorrect and that the account of Cassio Dio was closer to fact than Tacitus.

Titus (79-81AD) was emperor at the time of the eruption and he was remembered for the relief efforts. Titus’ administration was marked not by military or political conflicts, but by disasters. His first disaster was the eruption of Vesuvius. The eruption destroyed the cities and resort communities around the Bay of Naples in addition to Pompeii and Herculaneum which were buried under many feet of stone, ash, and lava. Titus appointed two ex-consuls to organize and coordinate the relief effort. He personally donated large amounts of money for the relief effort and he even personally toured the region the following year like presidents do today after such disasters (human nature never changes).

A single silver denarius was discovered among the 180 silver coins in 1974. When it was cataloged, it overturned history and has ever since been buried again in the Naples Museum rather than rewrite the history books. Titus’ father Vespasian (69-79AD) died on June 24th, 79 AD. Therefore, any coin of Titus as emperor would have to have the very first recording of his power “IMP VIIII” or 8th Imperator, which was a title that meant ‘leader of the army’ to the Romans. The award was generally given at this point in history for a particularly important victory that was celebrated. In some cases, these subsequent awards, denoted by a numeral following IMP, which also allows dating of coins to a very short period.

The coin discovered in Pompeii had the legend “IMP XV,” which was granted to Titus for the war in Britannia where he sent Gnaeus Julius Agricola who pushed further into Caledonia and managed to establish several forts there as recorded by Tacitus (Agricola 22). Therefore, Titus received this title of Imperator for the fifteenth time for this event, according to Cassius Dio (Roman History LXVI.20). This took place we know in September 79 AD about 3 months after becoming emperor following his father’s death. Obviously, if any coin was discovered in the ruins of Pompeii with “IMP XV” in its legend, then this provides absolute proof that the date for Vesuvius of August 24th, 79 AD cannot be correct as I previously wrote.

 

Archeologists in Pompeii have discovered a remarkable inscription written in charcoal which has survived the catastrophy confirming that the eruption of Mt Vesuvius indeed took place in October 79AD as confirmed by the coin discovered and ignored.  The charcoal writing, discovered on the wall of a villa during a new phase of excavations, adds weight to a theory that the volcano destroyed the town in October 79AD rather than August of that year in line with Cassio Dio and the denarius of Titus. The Italian authorities said the new discovery “rewrites the history” of Pompeii proving that the August 24th date was WRONG! The inscription reads, in Latin, XVI K NOV – the 16th day before the first day of November in the Roman calendar, in other words, October 17th. The inscription may have been written by a builder or architect who was working on the restoration of a villa a few days before the eruption, possibly as a way of recording the work he had done. Remarkably, it survived the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvius now confirming October 24th.

Archeologists recently discovered that a worker had inscribed the date of “the 16th day before the calends of November”, meaning October 17, on a house at Pompeii. “Today, with much humility, perhaps we will rewrite the history books because we date the eruption to the second half of October,” said Italy’s Minister of Culture Alberto Bonisoli. At last, the single silver denarius discovered, and which has been ignored for so long, has been finally vindicated. The coins won!!!

Hurricane Michael 2018 Haunting Similarity To Hurricane Andrew 1992 (Just Smaller Geography)…


The parallels between Homestead after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Mexico Beach after Hurricane Michael are stunning.  There are remarkable similarities including the first 48 hours of media incomprehension due to their inability to gain access.

For those who might not remember, immediately following hurricane Andrew (’92) no-one initially realized the scale of devastation in/around Homestead, FL, because all eyes were focused on the more well-known Miami area.  It took a few days for people to fathom where the real devastation took place.  Homestead was almost entirely obliterated.

Fast forward 26 years and the exact same scenario exists near Mexico Beach, FL.  The difference between Michael and Andrew is the width of the devastation.  Andrew was a much wider storm than Michael; but the aftermath is eerily similar.  Seriously, it’s PTSD flashback central…. stunningly so.

Just like the area around Homestead AFB ’92, the area around Tyndall AFB in 2018 is identical. Complete devastation.  Amazing. I mean the comparisons are spookily similar, right down to the displayed fighter jets being torn from their concrete pedestals.

This is probably the only time I will ever agree with Senator Bill Nelson:

As you go east of Panama City, that’s where that wall of water on the eastern side of the eye wall is,” Sen. Bill Nelson said. “You are going to see a lot of destruction when the rescue crews get into Mexico Beach. … That’s where you’re going to see the extreme, extreme devastation.”

The coastal community is gone.  There’s maybe a handful of houses and structures that did not have structural failure.

Further inland, with each mile traveled the number of livable structures seems to increase.  Buy the time you get around 15 miles away things look more like typical hurricane damage.

However, the roadways and transit hubs are a mess, without a heavy duty 4×4 it’s impossible to move around.  Forget about trying to get power crews in here. Some roads are completely impassable – just like Andrew in ’92 that makes rescue and recovery efforts slow down dramatically.

It will take days for the main arteries to be cleared; and that only then starts to get access to the secondary inbound roadways.  Once this process is complete (48 hours) that will allow a more thorough evaluation, the scale of the damage, to be possible.

That said, like Andrew, this post-Michael recovery effort is going to take a long time and a very long-term commitment.

No-one inside the impact zone is reading this because there is complete infrastructure failure.  No power, no water, no cell towers, no communication, etc.  It’s the old fashioned relay system…  who are you?  what is your status?  who do you need us to contact?  write it down….. then you travel 30 to 40 miles, find a network, and sit down and start making relay calls.

My friends and readers please remember this.  When we shared the importance of setting up a communication hub as part of your hurricane plan, this is exactly why.

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Tyndall AFB:

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Global Warming – Court Orders – Pathetic Analysis


 

In the Netherlands, the high court has now ordered the Dutch Government to cut greenhouse gases by 25% before end 2020. The court called it a Violation of the duty of care pursuant to articles 2 and 8 ECHR. The state must now further reduce greenhouse gases. Then we have the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that now says coal-fired electricity must end by 2050 if we are to limit global warming rises to 1.5C. They have NEVER heard of cycles and they simply project whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion. They never take nature into account and ignore everything else in the entire world not to mention volcanoes.

Rather than actually outlaw anything, the governments prefer to PUNISH people, which is far more profitable, by raising taxes dramatically. Now a Harvard study shows that large-scale Wind Farms also raise the temperature.

The way you do research is you test EVERY connection – you do not start with a presumption and then go off and try to prove something. On top of that, there are cycles to absolutely everything. There is nothing void of a cyclical nature.

Indeed, the 20th century will be remembered for four scientific revolutions–Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Chaos and Fractal Geometry. The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.

During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.

This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe. The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.

Lorenz also discovered in 1969, that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term Butterfly Effect in 1969 regarding this fascinating discovery. Very tiny changes in what might appear to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system creating a substantially different outcome. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?

Chaos theory was thus born. The Butterfly Effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions whereby a very small change at one place in a nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state. The effect derives its name from the theoretical example of a hurricane’s formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before. Lorenz’s early insights marked the beginning of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics but virtually every branch of science–biological, physical and social. In meteorology, these discoveries have led some to presume that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, such assumptions ignore the duality structure and the true importance of the Strange Attractor.

Lorenz demonstrated the profound realization that may be far more important than Einstein’s Relativity or even the discovery of Quantum Mechanics is matched only by Fractal Geometry. Lorenz demonstrated that the very idea of a deterministic system with formal predictability limitations does not actually exist; in other words, the Cartesian universe. I believe that Lorenz’s discoveries have overshadowed both relativity and quantum mechanics for they have truly opened the door to the Grand Unified Theory or the Theory of Everything if someone is willing to take that first step through the door.

Cyclical Analysis is the key to understanding the universe for it is the very essence of how all energy moves. It is the wave in light, but it is the attempt to predict where the particle will appear in the wave formation. If we look at the atomic structure it is the same design structure we see at the planetary level. The structural design and integrity are the same on all levels. In other words, it is fractal in composition. The same pattern repeated over and over again.

It is really pathetic how these charlatans ignore science on every level to produce a forecast that only puts money in their pockets. NOBDOY will fund anything to the contrary because governments are not interested unless it puts money in their pockets.

Hurricane Michael Update: Current 85mph Rapid Intensification Predicted


As anticipate Hurricane Michael is showing signs of continued strength with each update. Current wind speed 85mph. Rapid intensification is predicted. Current forecast is for a Category 3 (115+ mph) storm at landfall.  If you are in the path you do not have much time to prepare. This storm is gaining forward speed as it strengthens.

[Hurricane Center] At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. (read more)

For those in the cone of uncertainty, Florida Governor Rick Scott has provided an extensive update on state preparations – SEE HERE – More information is available on the Florida Emergency Website – SEE HERE.

Due to the speed of this storm, and the rapid intensification strength, all interests in the coastal area should immediate rush to completion their hurricane and storm preparation plans.  Tuesday is likely the only day to prepare your property and personal effects.  Do not delay.  Pay attention to the warnings and guidance of local officials.

If you live in an evacuation zone be prepared to respond as soon as instructed.  Take this storm seriously.  Slight variations in the storm’s path can create major changes within any impacted region.

Head’s Up – Tropical Storm Michael Forecast To Become Hurricane…


Coastal residents of Northern Florida (Panhandle), Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should keep an eye on tropical storm Michael.  The storm is anticipated to become a Hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico sometime late Tuesday/Wednesday.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. (More from hurricane center)

Katla Building to a Major Event?


They claim that all the world’s nations combined pumped nearly 38.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, according to new international calculations on global emissions published in the journal Nature Climate Change. That is 32 kilotons per day when one volcano Katla, which is a huge hidden volcano 650 feet beneath the ice cap in Iceland, is emitting 20 kilotons of C02 every day. There are only two volcanoes worldwide that are known to emit more CO2, and now scientists are concerned that Katla may be headed toward a major eruption. Obviously, the UN should be imposing a tax on Iceland for all this added Co2.

Katla has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1100 years. There were eruptions which have been documented in the years 920 and 1612, and from 1821 to 1823. These latter eruptions in the 19th century helped to cool the planet contributing to the mini ice age at that time. The last eruption that actually broke through the ice cap occurred in 1918. There have been subglacial flood events in 1955, 1999 and 2010-2011 that melted ice but it did not break the surface. These events do create flooding as the ice melts. Volcanic activity produced two eruptions in 2010 at Eyjafjallajokull, on March 20 and April 14. The second eruption created the giant ash cloud over Europe which diverted air traffic.

The 1918 ash plume was documented to have reached heights of 14 km. That event looked like a mushroom cloud from an atomic bomb. It is hard to draw a conclusive model since the majority of eruptions only melt ice beneath the surface. The best we can do with an approximation for the events that break through the surface puts it in 2020-2021 for the next ideal event. But the data series is not definitive on this event. It does appear that Katla has become active again since 2010 and is building to a climax. This could also be an event that contributes to global cooling as we saw during the 19th century

The most VALUABLE lesson we can teach our children is HOW TO THINK – not what to think


COMMENT: Good day Sir; How in the world do you do it? It is one thing to develop Socrates and assist clients, but yet another to keep up with and tie in the global events to the waves. I know you don’t sleep much Martin but I have not been dressed in a week and still I miss a couple things. If I’m getting this right various frequencies of currencies and prices are fixed and varied then Socrates somehow sorts all the waves, throws in a time factor that results in a cross of those market waves. Socrates seems to he can smell when the buyers reach that point of re-entry on a bear market or sellers during a bull. It’s extraordinary. It now seems crazy to think I will ever catch up to you without field experience. 4 years of reading/studying/back-checking your models/research/data is a bugger. Then you sens me back to the drawing board about once a month about another factor of the marketplace which didn’t occur to me. So off I go again into the unknown forest not knowing when I will reappear. I am pissed with myself that I am not yet comfortable. This quarter has been good because of a change in method that better resembles the market actions. Socrates is making sense more each day yet still I find pieces that need to fit somewhere. This is the coolest thing I’ve ever done. Working within the walls of a seemingly structured global marketplace I find it is handy to not only be a gentleman study but also know how to think like a thief, a murderer, a snake oil salesman, and a pick-pocket like Browder. Apologies for wasting your time. Lessons of simplicity… My father drew a small circle on the back of an envelope representing my entire knowledge base. I was maybe 15 or 16 so a small circle was appropriate. He said what is unknown to me lies on the outer perimeter of that circle.
The more I learn the larger the circle becomes, but correspondingly the outside perimeter of the unknown increases.

That’s my beef.

Thank you for opening the biggest can of worms.

RH

REPLY: Life is a journey that we are sent here to learn. You may not realize it, but you are what is truly a “genius” which most people do not understand what it even is. Indeed, some believe if we screw up we are sent back here again to try to get it right. Some believe Buda prayed that he could reach Nirvana and not have to come back here again. It is an interesting perspective on the purpose of life. But what is interesting is that I can agree that this is a journey about gaining knowledge. That is what keeps us both interested and young. If you have no interest in exploring, then you sit in your diapers in old age watching mindless TV shows waiting to be called home. Life ends, in my opinion, when there is nothing left to learn.

 

As long as you are on a journey toward enlightenment all is good. What else would you have in life that feeds your mind with the only food it really needs – curiosity and imagination. I did not know Einstein. But I knew a professor at Princeton where he taught who did know him. He shocked me one day and said I reminded him of Einstein. I was surprised and said I was not in his league or field. He told me I was. He explained that the common threat was not the subject matter by my curiosity. He told me that curiosity was the fuel for all advancement. As long as you are curious and have imagination, and try to figure out what makes things tick, that is the path to enlightenment.

There have been studies on what people call “genius” and they have revealed that all such people do poorly in school and tend to get in trouble. In the case of Einstein, his Munich schoolmaster wrote in Albert Einstein’s school report, “He will never amount to anything”, back in 1895. People who explore and test things rather than just regurgitate what they were taught are on the path to enlightenment. We will never advance as a society without exploring how things work. If you are curious and have an imagination, then you will explore new solutions. If you just memorize what the teacher says and get straight As, you will be a follower rather than a leader.

The school records of the young Winston Churchill revealed the future war leader was a “naughty child” the teachers said would amount to also to nothing. We have to understand what is really “genius” in order to nurture that in our children. It has NOTHING to do with the level of intelligence of knowing everything like some encyclopedia. Genius is all about dynamic thinking and methodology – seeing the interconnections. I have written before, if you read this blog, chances are you too fall into the category of being a “genius” for your thinking process demonstrates you are on a quest for knowledge.

The difference between a true genius and the majority of the world is that they are NOT content to walk around with blinders on like a horse pulling a carriage. The majority only can see directly what is in front of them. This is why A students work for C students, and B students work for the government. William Manchester wrote in the Last Lion on the life of Winston Churchill:

Studies at the University of Chicago and the University of Minnesota have found that teachers smile on children with high IQs and frown upon those with creative minds. In­telligent but uncreative students accept conformity, never rebel, and complete their assignments with dispatch and to perfection. The creative child, on the other hand, is manipulative, imaginative, and intuitive. He is likely to harass the teacher. He is regarded as wild, naughty, silly, unde­pendable, lacking in seriousness or even promise.

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So it is not that a genius knows everything, it is a person who seeks knowledge and thinks dynamically. You must avoid trying to reduce the world to a single cause and effect. It is always far more complex than just that. Look at all the people who dropped out of some university yet started major companies like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg just to mention a few (see the list of top 10). The most VALUABLE lesson we can teach our children is HOW TO THINK – not what to think.

Why have I poured so much time into programming Socrates? First, it was never a project I could ever give to another to even attempt to code. As far as its model analysis, I have been the only programmer. It takes EXPERIENCE in the subject matter to write such a program. Everyone else codes the delivery system. This is why there is nothing else like it. You had to be a TRADER and a PROGRAMMER to even tackle such an endeavor. My objective was to clone myself. There are so many variables that are involved it quickly exceeds the capacity of any human to keep track of some much in their head and at the tip of their fingers instantly. This is not about writing some algorithm to produce a mean and lean trading machine. Those are one-dimensional systems that will never adapt to changes.

For example, everyone rushed into AI to create robot trading. It was assumed the UBS’s push into AI lead to “robots invading the trading world.” Then one year later, UBS was reported to be shutting down its robo-trading system said in a statement that, while it is “satisfied” with the commercial progress of the service, “at this time we believe the near-term potential is limited and have therefore decided to close our digital-only offering in the UK”.

You cannot hire programmers to write a trading platform because they can only plug is formulas that are one-dimensional and have a system that will be consistent over time. Long-Term Capital Management crashed after used the BlackScholes model for which they won the Nobel Prize, yet it failed with volatility and time. They never saw the wave coming at them from currencies which swamped all markets and force funds to sell assets around the world to cover losses in Russia.

Even high-frequency trading cannot see the big waves coming from global events and they will shut down as soon as volatility rises. The biggest danger with such systems is they become trapped and cannot escape a financial tidal wave they are incapable of forecasting. It is like just watching gold and nothing else. Everything is connected and then to figure such a system out requires historical data. I have stated plenty of times, I have probably spent far more than a $100 million in today’s terms to collect a database to even train a system.

I am always still improving Socrates. As I said, it is my clone. Every trick of the trade I have learned I taught the system and I and always still learning so I had to write the code to allow Socrates to also learn as I have throughout life. The bottom line is rather simple. It does not make a mistake in forgetting to check something because it had a good night or some distracting argument. It is free of such human fralities we are all plagued with.

 

Trying to Forecast Long-Term Technology Trends


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have a hard time envisioning this age of knowledge some claim is behind cryptocurrencies and others claim is behind robots that necessitate a guarantee welfare system. Do you give any credence to these type of forecasts of the long-term future?

BG

ANSWER: No. This idea that we advance to a higher state of knowledge is rather absurd. We evolve with technology, but it is not going to produce world peace. There was a German electrical engineer by the name of Charles Proteus Steinmetz who had made a dramatic forecast with the invention of electricity back in 1923. He said that by 2023, electricity would be doing all the hard work and people would not have to toil for more than four hours a day. Steinmetz also envisioned cities free of pollution and litter in a century’s time.

If we look at electricity, yes it is cleaner and would produce less pollution if you generated by solar or nuclear. He could not forecast in 1923 nuclear energy nor could he fathom the computer so we are not working less but can work even more from anywhere. The danger of trying to make long-term forecasts in technology is that the trend can be changed by a development in a parallel field. This is why in designing Socrates, I taught it how to analyze rather than create fixed rules. In this manner, it will evolve with technology. Who knows, perhaps they discover a way to get energy from Azuki beans that replaced everything.

Nobody can know the discoveries that await us long-term. Who knows, perhaps we can one day create black holes and appear on the other side of the universe. It may sound like complete fiction today no down as traveling under the sea did to people who read 20th Thousand Leagues under the Sea by Jules Verne (1828–1905)  in 1870.

It is best to just go with the flow. The markets pick up changes in technology. Just pay attention.