Posted originally on Jun 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Kevin Warsh is now stepping into one of the most difficult jobs at a time when inflation is rising again, energy prices are climbing because of the Middle East conflict, and confidence in central banks remains fragile. What immediately stands out is that Warsh is not another Jerome Powell. He has spent years criticizing the Federal Reserve itself, arguing that many of today’s economic problems were created by central bank policy rather than solved by it.
One of Warsh’s most important positions is his rejection of the idea that inflation was merely the result of supply chain disruptions or temporary events. He has repeatedly argued that excessive government spending and Federal Reserve policy fueled inflation. Reuterssummarized his position by noting that Warsh views inflation as a consequence of policy decisions and has been highly critical of the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. That is a significant departure from the excuses that dominated the discussion over the past several years.
What I find interesting is that Warsh appears determined to dismantle many of the communication tools that have defined modern central banking. He has criticized “forward guidance,” questioned the value of constant forecasts, and appears to favor a much less predictable Federal Reserve. Markets have become addicted to every word spoken by central bankers. Investors now spend more time trying to decipher press conferences than studying the underlying economy. Warsh seems to believe that central banks should stop pretending they can micromanage expectations years into the future.
When he was sworn in, Warsh pledged to “lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve” while “learning from past successes and mistakes” and “escaping static frameworks and models.” The Federal Reserve has increasingly become an institution trapped by its own theories. The economy changes while the response remains the same.
The irony is that Trump may have selected someone who agrees with him about the failures of Powell and the Federal Reserve, yet disagrees with him on the solution. Warsh believes the Fed lost credibility because it waited too long to fight inflation. Trump wants growth and lower borrowing costs. Those objectives can coexist for a while, but if inflation remains elevated because of war, energy prices, or government spending, Warsh may find himself making decisions Trump does not like.
The larger issue is that no Fed chairman controls the business cycle. This is where politicians always get it wrong. Trump wanted lower rates. Biden wanted lower rates. Every administration eventually wants lower rates. Yet interest rates ultimately move with confidence and capital flows. The mainstream Keynesian view has always assumed rates are simply a policy tool. History shows something very different. Rates generally rise with strong markets and confidence and decline during bear markets and economic contractions. The Federal Reserve follows the trend far more often than it creates it.
Warsh enters office during what our models have projected as a Panic Cycle year. The international war cycle is turning up, government debt continues expanding, and geopolitical uncertainty is increasing. Investors expecting a magic solution from a new Fed chairman will likely be disappointed. Warsh may reform how the Fed communicates. He may challenge some of the assumptions that dominated the Powell era. But the real issue remains confidence. If confidence in government continues declining while geopolitical tensions continue rising into 2027, then no central banker will be able to prevent the consequences. The Fed does not control the cycle. The cycle controls the Fed.
Posted originally on Jun 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said what many leaders will not say publicly. Speaking to Al-Arabiya English, he accused Israel of carrying out a “Holocaust” in Gaza and said: “They already have a bad reputation in the world because of the bombing of Gaza.” He added that Gaza had been “wiped off the face of the earth” and warned that “there is no military solution.” Coming from Lukashenko, the West will dismiss it immediately because they hate the messenger. But that does not erase the condition of Gaza.
The reported Palestinian death toll surpassed 73,000, with more than 173,000 wounded. Save the Children reported in 2025 that more than 20,000 children had been killed. UNICEF said more than 50,000 children had been reportedly killed or injured. Hospitals, schools, homes, roads, water systems, and basic infrastructure were destroyed. This was not a precision operation. Gaza has been completely removed from the map. The Israeli people do NOT support their government and are largely appalled at what Netanyahu has done.
Nearly the entire population of Gaza, roughly 2.1 million people, has been displaced at least once, making it one of the largest displacement crises in modern history. Entire cities were reduced to rubble. Some estimates indicate that well over half of all structures in Gaza were damaged or destroyed.
Netanyahu claimed the goal was to destroy Hamas. That did not happen. Hamas still exists. Analysts have continued to warn that Hamas retained operational capability and would resist disarmament. So what was accomplished? Gaza was destroyed, children were buried, civilians were displaced, and yet the organization Israel claimed it would eliminate remains part of the discussion. That is not victory. You cannot bomb an ideology out of existence.
There has long been speculation surrounding the Ben Gurion Canalproject, a proposed alternative to the Suez Canal connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Released documents prove that this plan has been in the works for decades. When Gaza is reduced to ruins and then people begin discussing strategic corridors, reconstruction plans, resorts, ports, and new trade routes, the public naturally asks who benefits. Lukashenko himself criticized what he described as plans to build a resort on land where people were killed. But the main objective is providing the West with a new artery to trade in the Middle East.
Revealing the horrors of Gaza is punishable by death. Gaza became the deadliest conflict for reporters ever recorded. The Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Federation of Journalists, Reporters Without Borders, and numerous press freedom organizations have all documented unprecedented losses among media workers. Depending on the methodology used, estimates range from roughly 190 to more than 260 journalists and media workers killed since the war began, the overwhelming majority of them Palestinian. The Costs of War Project described Gaza as the deadliest conflict for journalists in modern history. Many were killed while reporting from hospitals, refugee camps, media tents, and civilian areas. Others died alongside their families in airstrikes.
There are plenty of on-the-ground journalists in every corner of conflict. The percentage of journalists who died reporting on Gaza does not coincide with other conflicts. Rumors have swirled that many of these journalists were deliberately targeted, and let’s be honest, such a concept should not be considered a conspiracy or a far-fetched proposition for a government intent on a scorched-earth policy.
Gaza is no longer the daily story because the cycle has shifted to Iran, Lebanon, and the next war. The public is emotionally exhausted, the cameras move, and the destroyed land remains behind. But history does not forget. The war cycle is not finished. It is expanding. Gaza was not the end of the story. It was a warning of what comes next when leaders believe war is policy and civilians are merely collateral damage. Is Lebanon next?
What concerns me going forward is Lebanon. The negotiations with Iran were reportedly supposed to include broader regional de-escalation, yet Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that Israel intends to maintain freedom of military action in Lebanon and reserves the right to continue operations regardless of any agreement reached elsewhere. If a peace deal leaves Iran standing but the fighting simply shifts north into Lebanon, then peace has not been achieved at all.
Few people seem to remember that the United States spent more than $1 billion constructing what is expected to become the second-largest U.S. embassy complex in the world in Lebanon, a 43-acre fortress that dwarfs most government facilities in the country. The timing and scale of that project have raised questions for years about Washington’s long-term strategic expectations for the region. The cycle continues to suggest that the Middle East is moving through a broader period of instability rather than approaching a lasting settlement. Gaza has been devastated, Iran remains unresolved, and Lebanon increasingly appears positioned as the next potential flashpoint. The danger is that politicians will declare peace while the war simply moves to the next battlefield.
Posted originally on Jun 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Hungary’s Viktor Orban represented the most visible challenge to the European Union’s vision of centralized political authority. He rejected migrant quotas, opposed sanctions that damaged European economies, resisted deeper integration, and repeatedly argued that Hungary’s government should answer to Hungarian voters rather than unelected officials in Brussels. That made him a threat. Not because he was unique, but because he demonstrated that a nationalist government could survive repeated attempts to isolate it.
A constitutional amendment has been written specifically to prevent Orban from ever returning to office. Anyone who has served as prime minister for a total of eight years or more “cannot be elected prime minister.” The amendment applies retroactively all the way back to May 2, 1990, counting every year already served as prime minister. Orban has already served roughly twenty years across his various terms in office, making him permanently ineligible the moment the amendment takes effect. If the Hungarian people were to decide four years from now that they wanted Orban back, they would no longer have that choice.
The political establishment is essentially saying that voters are free to choose their leaders, provided they do not choose that leader. For a European Union that constantly lectures others about democracy and the rule of law, rewriting a constitution to retroactively eliminate the most significant nationalist figure in modern Hungarian politics raises profound questions about whether elections are intended to reflect the will of the people or merely ratify outcomes approved by the political class.
The pattern extends far beyond Hungary. Romania’s election was overturned after a nationalist candidate emerged victorious. Marine Le Pen has faced relentless legal battles as her support climbed in France. Germany’s establishment increasingly treats AfD as a political problem to be contained rather than an opposition movement to be debated. In Greece, the debt crisis revealed how quickly democratic outcomes could be discarded when voters challenged the policies demanded by Brussels. Different countries. Different politicians. The same conflict.
The European Union has increasingly come to view nationalism itself as the enemy. Nationalism places loyalty to country above loyalty to institutions. It assumes governments should act in the interests of their own citizens first. Brussels operates from the opposite premise. Power must flow upward toward centralized institutions. National sovereignty becomes an obstacle to integration rather than the foundation of democracy. This is why every major nationalist movement eventually finds itself in conflict with the European establishment.
The sovereign debt crisis, migration crisis, energy crisis, and now the war cycle have all exposed the fault lines beneath the European project. The EU mistakenly thinks it can survive with enough cohesion through coercion, or that confidence can somehow be restored if the vote is suppressed. Removing Orban or any pro-nationalist candidate will not prevent the inevitable collapse of the European Union.
Posted originally on Jun 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: I read Trump’s comment to Netanyahu in Axios. You have been the voice of reason. I argued with someone who said you were anti-sematic for criticizing Netanyahu. They criticized Obama so I asked then you must be a racist. It went right over their head. I know you said before that you had two Jewish uncles who married into your family one on each side. Such people are idiots. My question is do you think this will last?
OB
ANSWER: Well, since the latest Israeli poll shows 61% of Israelis want Netanyahu to retire, does that mean 61% of Israelis are anti-sematic? This is a Neocon tactic and anyone who spouts out this BS, one must question their mental capacity to be a free thinker. The EU does the same thing that anyone who does not bad-mouth Putin they call a Putin Supporter. The Neocons always try to prevent any communication with the opposition out of fear there could be a peace deal.
Trump has the midterms and Netanyahu is likely to run for reelection. Netanyahu is being criticized for achieving nothing. He needs a military victory. Trump needs to get the hell out of Iran for the midterms. There is a serious conflict of interest here politically. Trump has at last discovered the real Netanyahu.
Neither Netanyahu nor Zelensky care about the world. Both are psychopaths’ who are only interested in their personal self-interests. The institutional report we produced on the Sovereign Debt Crisis has blown the doors off of what is really going on behind the scenes. I believe that Iran will be able to charge fees to use the Strait of Hurmuz the same as Turkey charges fees for boats and ships using its key waterways, specifically the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. Egypt charges for passage through their Suez Canal as does Panama. Iran, I believe, has agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon. I believe that Iran will have access to $300 billion in reparations for rebuilding infrastructure. Sanctions ill be eventually lifted.
My problem with both Netanyahu and Zelensky is that neither is interested in peace. The alternative is endless war and the only way to win is genocide – the total destruction of your opponent. Ukraine cannot utterly destroy Russia any more than Israel can obliterate Iran. Neither will accept that because they believe that they can lure in other powers to achieve their goal. Zelensky want NATO to wage war against Russia and has even advocated a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Moscow. Netanyahu needs the US to wage war against Iran and the danger remains that he has nukes and can use them under the pretense that it would be a pre-emptive strike.
In 2024, in his Knesset speech, Netanyahu said: “I’ve been warning about Iran for 30 years.” It was reported on March 3rd, during a visit to a site struck by an Iranian missile, Netanyahu stated: “We read in this week’s Torah portion, ‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember—and we act.”
In 1 Samuel 15:2-3, God gives King Saul a specific, direct order to carry out this command. The prophet Samuel relays the message:
“This is what the LORD Almighty says: ‘I will punish the Amalekites for what they did to Israel when they waylaid them as they came up from Egypt. Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys. ‘”
The harshness of the command in 1 Samuel has disturbed Jewish scholars for centuries, leading to various interpretations that move beyond a literal call for genocide. If Netanyahu believes that genocide is the command of God, that is NOT in the self-interest of the United States. He knows you cannot accomplish regime change from the air. This is the very first time when we are in a partnership with another country who is really calling the shots here where the interests of Netanyahu are by no means the same national interest of the United States.
I have tried my best to reveal the real agenda of both Netanyahu and Zelensky. Both are hellbent on trying to create world war to destroy their hated opponents and will say anything to achieve that goal.
To answer you question, I believe that Netanyahu will not yield and I would still expect tensions to rise again especially in August and this may escalate into the first quarter of 2027. I have been trying to keep the US out of this mess. I will probably fail, but nonetheless, I have to give it a shot.
Delivering a statement via Truth Social returning from the G7 in France. President Trump has suspended the nomination of SDNY U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton, cancelling Wednesday afternoon’s SSCI hearing on the nomination.
The late-night timing appears to be due to President Trump focused on the G7 discussions and now turns his focus back to the domestic agenda; DNI, Save America Act and FISA (702) reauthorization.
President Trump outlines in the Truth Social post that FISA (702) renewal must be attached to the Save America Act, and Jay Clayton’s replacement, Jamie McDonald, must be confirmed to replace Clayton in the SDNY prior to the DNI nomination moving forward. This position puts Bill Pulte’s appointment as Acting DNI back into the mix.
VIA TRUTH SOCIAL – “The Republicans agreed with Dumocrats to remove very fair, and talented, William Pulte, from serving as Acting DNI in return for getting FISA approved by the Dumocrats. However, the Republicans moved so fast with the hearings of the Great Jay Clayton, current U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, that Pulte would be gone before the Dumocrats would vote on FISA.
Now, the Dumocrats are saying they will vote against FISA — So, the Republicans wound up having fulfilled their commitment, but Dumocrats broke the Deal.
In addition, the newly nominated U.S. Attorney, Jamie McDonald, must be confirmed and blue slipped. Because of the ridiculous views of Republicans on blue slipping (Dumocrats are often willing to nix it), I may not be able to get the extraordinary Sullivan & Cromwell Partner, Jamie, approved, and I don’t want to take Jay Clayton away from the great job he is doing until Jamie is in place.
Therefore, to add a slight bit of intrigue but, for the Good of the Nation, and the People of our Country, I will not approve FISA without THE SAVE AMERICA ACT going along with it. Not complicated, actually, the Republicans fell into a trap.
Regarding the approval of our Great Patriot, Jay Clayton, we are cancelling the Senate Hearing RE: DNI today, and will not be going forward until Jamie McDonald is approved to be U.S. Attorney. In the meantime, Bill Pulte will remain as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
None of these back-and-forth moves would be necessary if Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune were aligned with the Republican President. Alas, with Thune representing a dysfunctional wing of a Senate UniParty, his priorities are in alignment against the President.
Posted originally on CTH on June 16, 2026 | Sundance
Earlier today, FBI Director Kash Patel announced: “On June 10, FBI and our law enforcement partners became aware of a potential threat to the UFC America 250 event in Washington, D.C. involving individuals outside of the National Capital Region – and thanks to the rapid action of this FBI, our partners, and the Department of Justice in a multi-state operation, multiple individuals are now in custody and allegedly planned attacks were stopped cold.”
According to law enforcement officials, a California native named Michael Alan Thomas (insert, right) of Pinon Hills was the organizer of several people online who planned to use drones to strike UFC Freedom 250 events, nearby buildings and create chaos. The goal was to funnel the crowd and then use sniper fire and a ground assault on a White House gate.
Another suspect in the case, 19-year-old Ohio resident Tycen Proper, was intercepted following an alert from his family.
NY Post – […] “The alleged conspiracy first came to light after Proper’s family contacted authorities in Ohio, worried about his recent behavior, firearms purchases and interactions with an online group espousing anti-government views.
Investigators later uncovered encrypted chats laying out plans for an attack timed to coincide with UFC Freedom 250, a major event held on the White House lawn that was attended by Trump and other senior government officials, according to the complaint. (read more)
Federal authorities also tied another alleged conspirator, Bryan Omar Roa (above, left), to Yucaipa, California. Using the encrypted alias “Noble6,” Roa allegedly coordinated with the anti-government group to help plot the drone-and-sniper attack against high-value targets at the White House event.
Internal chat logs reviewed by investigators show Roa discussing weapons and tactical gear, offering to contribute money for equipment and researching ways to avoid detection online, according to the complaint.
Posted originally on CTH on June 16, 2026 | Sundance
British Member of Parliament, Rupert Lowe, has been conducting an eighteen-month investigation of Muslim rape gangs in the U.K. as perpetrated against young, white, British girls. Today he released his 212-Page report.
Lowe describes the systemic raping of British pre-teen and teenage girls, as one of the most extensive and devastating failures in modern British history. Speaking after the inquiry’s findings were published, Lowe accused politicians, police, social services, local authorities, the NHS, the judiciary and the media of failing vulnerable victims for years. He praised survivors who gave evidence and warned that the inquiry is only the beginning, promising private prosecutions and further action against those he believes failed to act. WATCH:
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