China – US – Claimed Territory – One China Policy

Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  China’s claimed territory??? So China can claim the entire Pacific as their territory and that means we can’t enter the Pacific???


ANSWER: Whatever China claims is really irrelevant. Up until recently, we did not push the limits and China did not expand its claims. We all agreed to disagree but took no action. In this case, Beijing’s claim of its territorial waters in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands does not comply with international law.

Nevertheless, the real question is what has changed? You can support war all you want, but remember, this time it will be different. The Neocons are smart. Wrap whatever they do in the American flag and people will die for their claims as well. Wars are created by the elites, not the common people. We also need to examine who is doing what for whatever you thought you were creating for your future and that of your family will exist no more. Everything is changing.

You must understand the language of diplomacy. It may seem irrelevant but it is very critical. The point is that we seem to be deliberately provoking confrontation which is strange and we are abandoning the statement on the One China Policy which has actually protected Taiwan. Before the Neocons seized the White House, there was the agreement of a One China Policy, which tentatively accepted their territorial view of China despite appearing to be more nuanced and fiction rather than substantive.

I know international politics can be very confusing for people unaware that it is all about WORDSMITHING! Words matter and lives depend on those words. Back in January 2017, Rex Tillerson, who was Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Taiwan, based on the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and the Six Assurances, at his Senate confirmation hearing. He also indicated that he is not aware of “any plans to alter” the U.S. “one China” policy.

Back in 1979, that is when the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) (Taiwan). What the United States stated at that time was that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.” The use of the word “sole” meant that the PRC was and is only China. In those words, there was no consideration of the ROC (Taiwan) as a separate sovereign entity.

Now, against that statement on the surface, the United States did not yield to the Chinese demand that it recognize Chinese Sovereignty over Taiwan. The word “Taiwan” became the name preferred by the United States in the aftermath of the de-recognization of the ROC. So they no longer called it the Republic of China but switched to Taiwan.

This wordsmithing satisfied China and removed the threat of invasion of the ROC. Washington thereby acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. It became the wordsmithing compromise.

When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, the Deputy Secretary of State at the time was  Warren Christopher who testified before the  Senate:

“[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.”

That was all followed by a U.S.-China Communique on August 17th, 1982. It was there that the United States stated that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.” This is how diplomacy is carried out. I have to do the same in advising governments economically because it always hangs on a single word.

To this day, the U.S. “one China” position has stood until the Neocons have seized the Biden White House. stands: the United States recognizes the PRC as the sole legal government of China but only acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. Thus, the United States maintains formal relations with the PRC and has unofficial relations with Taiwan. The “one China” policy has subsequently been reaffirmed by every new incoming U.S. administration. The existence of this understanding has enabled the preservation of stability in the Taiwan Strait, allowing both Taiwan and mainland China to pursue their extraordinary political and socioeconomic transitions in relative peace.

The Washington Post wrote:

“The one-China policy is only a symbol of the long-standing, tacit agreement between the two countries to leave the Taiwan question unresolved. It’s a policy worth saving, if possible. But it’s not an agreement the United States can uphold alone. Right now, the one-China policy looks fragile, but it’s Xi — not Biden — who will decide whether the policy and the peace it preserves will survive.”

Because we have now put Taiwan in the face of China with politicians flying there for support, we have guaranteed that China must NOW take Taiwan. The One China Policy has been tiorn up and that means lives must now be lost and the future will never be the same from here on out. The question is WHY?

Blinken is a Neocon. In diplomacy, you DO NOT threaten China publicly. You do that in private phone calls and meetings. When you do that publicly, you are effectively insuring that they then MUST take action or they will appear to be weak. What is Putin said publicly the US must stop sending weapons to Ukraine, and Biden then says, gee, we will stop sending weapons to Ukraine. The American people will call him a puppet of Putin.

The is a HUGE difference in diplomacy between public and private. The fact that Biden has done everything publicly is a slap in the face to china and ensures that they must now confront the USA. This is all being orchestrated and it will be Americans who die for these deliberate acts of the Neocons who have created every war since Vietnam. I seriously doubt that Biden is even aware of who is now running our Foreign Policy. They just want ware and will get it.

The Neocons have no problem sacrificing your children on their altar of geopolitical power. Peace – is no longer an option. Open your eyes. This is intentional – not stupidity!

China has Warned US They Will Attack US Troops in Taiwan

Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Feb 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

A commentator for the Global Times, reported a threat to the United States last Thursday night, stating that China would not hesitate to engage U.S. forces stationed in Taiwan if the Chinese launched an invasion of the island nation. Indeed, Hu Xijin, formerly the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, reacted to a Wall Street Journal report about U.S. troops traveling to Taiwan. He called it “illegal” and suggested that China would treat them as enemy combatants.

“It’s illegal for these US soldiers to go to Taiwan and the Chinese mainland won’t take any responsibility for their safety,” tweeted Hu. “If we take military action when necessary, they’ll be wiped out together with the resisting Taiwan troops. They can also be eliminated first as the invading army.”

Biden Pokes Xi – As China and Russia Align Closer, Joe Biden Sends Additional U.S. Troops to Taiwan

Posted originally on the CTH on February 23, 2023 | Sundance

This sounds exactly like something out of the State Dept playbook from an era when the U.S. military had the actual strength to back it up.  However, against the current state of affairs, specifically the U.S. control over the western NATO alliance, sending additional troops to Taiwan just because the U.S. is upset about China and Russia’s relationship, is simply poking the Beijing dragon.

There are approximately 30 U.S. troops in Taiwan on a regular rotating basis. Nothing large or significant.  However, immediately after China and Russia announce there is no distance or limit in their relationshipaccording to the Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration is sending an additional 200 U.S. military troops into Taiwan.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – […] The number of American troops, which has included special-operations forces and U.S. Marines, has fluctuated by a handful during the past few years, according to Defense Department data. The planned increase would be the largest deployment of forces in decades by the U.S. on Taiwan, as the two draw closer to counter China’s growing military power.

[…] The expanded training, both in the U.S. and in Taiwan, is part of a gathering U.S. push to help a close partner prepare to thwart a possible invasion by China. The U.S. officials said the expansion was planned for months, well before U.S.-China relations plummeted anew this month after a suspected Chinese spy balloon traversed North America for more than a week before being shot down by the Air Force.

With a decades-old military buildup gaining momentum, China’s People’s Liberation Army is increasingly engaging in aggressive maneuvers, sending planes and ships near Taiwan. Following Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine last year, the Pentagon has redoubled efforts to get Taiwan to adopt what some military specialists call a “porcupine” strategy, focusing on tactics and weapons systems that would make the island harder to assault.

The additional troops will be tasked with training Taiwan forces not only on U.S. weapons systems but on military maneuvers to protect against a potential Chinese offensive, the U.S. officials said. The officials declined to provide other details about the deployment, which hasn’t been previously reported. (read more)

This is not going to change the dynamic of Russia and China in alignment against western NATO policy, but it will likely make Beijing even more determined against U.S. interests.

Yesterday: “Earlier Wednesday, Wang held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. “Our ties have continued to develop dynamically, and despite high turbulence in the global arena, we have shown the readiness to speak in defense of each other’s interests,” Lavrov said. Wang responded in kind, underlining Beijing’s focus on deepening ties with Russia — a relationship it has said has “no limits.” (read more)

Why is it whenever there are Democrats in the White House there is always conflict in the world?

Taiwan & Asia War in 2025?

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We have been getting an onslaught of emails asking in the military is now using Socrates for their forecasts after the claims of a war with China are coming in 2025 since that is when Socrates has been targeting the start of a major international war. In the memo obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.” Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

I cannot comment on this yes or no. All I can say is that just about EVERY intelligence agency monitors what Socrates forecasts. I do not know it the General was making that memo based on Socrates’ forecast that 2025 is a Panic Cycle Target in their currency.

The  Republic of China (Taiwan) (ROC) government relocated to Taiwan, followed by 1.2 million people from China. It was October 25th, 1949 when the Battle of Kuningtou on Kinmen took place, in which the ROC armed forces defeat the CCP on the northwestern coast of the island. The ROC then declared Martial law in Taiwan which continued to be in force until 1987. The tensions have turned up in 2021. When we look at 2025, that will be also the Pi target since this market has arrived on everyone’s screen.

Taiwan Panders to US with “Democracy Chips”

Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Sep 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is eager to strengthen relationships with the US by producing more semiconductor chips. The US recently set aside funds specifically to build up domestic manufacturing, but shortages remain a serious problem. Taiwan’s growing relationship with America has angered China, and Ing-wen’s words will certainly be a subtle elbow to the One China policy.

“In the face of authoritarian expansionism and the challenges of the post-pandemic era, Taiwan seeks to bolster cooperation with the United States in the semiconductor and other high-tech industries. “This will help build more secure and more resilient supply chains. We look forward to jointly producing democracy chips to safeguard the interests of our democratic partners and create greater prosperity,” the president stated.

Democracy is exactly what China does not want Taiwan to have. After Pelosi opened the door, every politician seems to want to make a statement by visiting Taipei now. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey made an appearance in Taipei to discuss the aforementioned democracy chip venture. They also discussed helping to make the Indo-Pacific a neutral zone, which is unrelated to trade. The US continues to all but outright state they fully support Taiwan’s independence and China is taking note

Taiwan to Destroy Chinese Drones

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Aug 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The video above has gone viral, depicting Taiwanese soldiers throwing rocks at drones believed to be sent by China. Reports are circulating that Taiwan also allowed store-bought civilian drones to enter its airspace, which leaves many to wonder how they can compete against China’s military surveillance. Backed by the US, Taiwan is beginning to push back against China and its One China policy. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) has reported that they will begin to shoot down Chinese drones or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The MND said that it plans to invest in anti-drone defense systems over the next four years to the tune of $141 million. There have been 23 drone spottings in Taiwan since Pelosi’s reckless visit. It should be worth noting that Taiwan donated 800 carpet bomber drones and 860 combat drones to Ukraine to combat Russia. China is taking notes from Russia, while Taiwan is taking notes from Ukraine. Why would Taiwan offer a vast quantity of drones to Ukraine if they are in need of their own protection?

The simple answer is that support from the US has emboldened Taiwan. They do not fear an escalation of tensions when US warships are passing through its waters. Time will tell how China responds as the One China policy is under fire.

Pelosi Visits Taiwan

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Aug 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan on Tuesday night despite warnings from both Washing and Beijing. The nature of her trip was so secretive that it was not on her official itinerary. Now, the true nature of her visit is coming to light. “We take this trip at a time when the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy,” Pelosi said. “We cannot stand by as the CCP proceeds to threaten Taiwan — and democracy itself,” Pelosi said in a statement. “Our congressional delegation’s visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner, as it defends itself and its freedom.”

Her statements blatantly disregard the One China policy and all but confirmed that the US would support Taiwan if China invaded. In fact, her tone was so forceful it seemed as if she may be pressuring Taiwan to break away from China. China did not shoot down her plane as some Chinese commenters speculated, but they did flex their military muscles by conducting military exercises near the Taiwan Strait before Pelosi arrived. China does not want a war – but will they be pushed into one?

The nature of Pelosi’s visit has finally been disclosed. She will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, and some news outlets are reporting that she plans to meet with activists who are outspoken about China’s human rights violations. Pelosi seems to be pushing the nation to liberate itself from the One China policy. One must wonder if Washington expressed dismay publicly while secretly endorsing Pelosi’s monumental trip. China has already punished Taiwan by banning it from exporting 100 food items, which will certainly hurt Taiwan’s fishermen and farmers. They are likely calculating their next move against the US. Expect tensions between the US and China to reach new heights, all due to Nancy Pelosi.

US Antagonizes China with Surprise Taiwan Visit

Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Lindsey Graham is at it again. He is one of the leading Neocons who has supported the Ukrainian Neonatzis and the war against Russians. Now he pulled off a surprise visit to Taiwan playing the very same game promising US support for a war against China should they invade. This came precisely during the week of April 18th which our computer warned would be an important geopolitical event. This insanity is just beyond belief.

I have no explanation why Graham is so intent on creating World War III. He is forcing China and Russia to combine forces and our model shows that this new alliance will not be alone. Much of the Middle East will join for they see Israel and in bed with the USA and the Zelensky is playing the Jewish Hero. This has divided the Middle East and while Europe is pledging an oil embargo against Russia, my sources in the Middle East are saying they WILL NOT fill the gap for Europe.

Shanghai lockdown will have a profound impact further creating shortages that will push inflation higher. This may recall being the objective given the obstinance of the US policy toward Russia. Shanghai officials said they would lift the lockdown only in batches once virus transmission outside quarantined areas was stamped out. There is no massive wave of deaths and it could very well prove to be a new strategy to combat American sanctions.

Pelosi Suddenly Tests COVID Positive Conveniently Cancelling Taiwan Trip

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

In a stunningly convenient announcement, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has tested positive for COVID-19, thereby postponing her trip to Taiwan after China threatened retaliation for trying to turn Taiwan into the next Ukraine. Pelosi’s top staffer just tweeted that his lord and master, Pelosi, who is fully vaccinated and boosted, is asymptomatic and quarantining, chief of staff Drew Hammill tweeted. This is just absolutely incredible timing to come up with the excuse to back out of Taiwan, trying to make it seem that this has NOTHING to do with China’s warning.

The Coming WWIII

Armstrong Economics Blog/War re-Posted Mar 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While people rush to kiss the feet of Zelensky, even some Ukrainians are now concerned that he is a puppet dragging their country to destruction all over Donbas. I have warned that this is going to turn into WWIII. China has now come out and warned the USA against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.” They too are logging the same complaints against the US as Putin for creating biological weapons labs on their borders as well.

There are serious allegations that this is all being carried out to try to force Russia and China into the Great Reset and to comply with the United Nations’ mandates for climate change. It is hard to say whether these allegations are true or false. As always, time reveals the truth. But the WEF, which had claimed that Putin was a Young Global Leader, rejected that and shifted to supporting Zelensky also pushing for a continued war that Ukraine cannot win unless it gets so bad that they use this to justify NATO entering Ukraine.

My concern is that their mistake is they think they can take down Russia and then turn to China. Our model warns that that will be a fatal mistake, and China will join Russia.