Farm Input Costs Continue Driving Massive Food Inflation


Posted originally on the CTH on February 6, 2023 | Sundance 

John Boyd Jr., President of the National Black Farmers Association appears on Newsmax TV to discuss the ongoing issue of higher farm input costs.  Energy costs, fertilizer costs, fuel costs as well as all packing and distribution costs that are associated with petroleum manufacturing, are continuing to drive farm costs throughout the supply chain.

After a review of the current farm output status, there is a very strong possibility we will see the fourth wave of food inflation hit this spring, in combination with several manufacturing and production facilities.  Again, the lack of consumer spending on durable goods has moderated the price in hard goods (supplies up, demand down); however, the highly consumable products like food, fuel and energy continue to experience upward price pressure as a direct result of Biden energy policy.  WATCH:

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If consumers could eat missiles and weapons, the U.S. government would be offsetting the costs.  Unfortunately, for actual farming products, there is no government attention, policy or support.  Apparently, food is still not considered a national security issue.

Beyond Hubris – Joe Biden Says He Takes No Blame for Inflation


Posted originally on the CTH on February 3, 2023 | Sundance

Not only does the buck not stop with Biden, the installed occupant of the White House refuses to admit the buck even started with him. It did!

During remarks to the press today, even Brian Deese looked stunned as Joe Biden incredulously claimed he didn’t cause the rampant inflation that is crushing middle class Americans. Oh, he started it alright…. He not only started it, but he also created it.

The combination of the January 2021 immediate move to block any domestic energy development, in combination with the April 2021 unneeded explosion of deficit spending triggered both a supply side and demand side inflationary impact; with the former continuing to put massive upward pressure on prices still. WATCH:

The lies from the lying, liar who lies, just flow so easily from his mouth.

A pox on all their houses.

President Trump also Watching RGA for Background Moves in 2024


Posted originally on the CTH on February 2, 2023 | Sundance

Of course, he is.  President Trump is not only running against the Democrat candidate in 2024, likely Newsom, but he’s also running against the Republican establishment candidate in 2024, most certainly DeSantis.

As such, President Donald Trump is noting the same strategic plays that we are.  Fortunately, he’s keeping an eye on how the Republican Governor’s Association (RGA) is intending to execute their anti-MAGA moves against the base working-class voters. [Trump Truth]

[Background Article]

Again, for emphasis, despite accusations and ridiculously unfounded assertions, I have no affiliation or contact with anyone in/around the campaign.  However, as with the prior election(s) in ’08 (McCain), ’12 (Romney), ’16 (Jeb!), and 2020 (Biden), the republican establishment roadmap is complex in a Machiavellian way, yet easy to spot if you know their objective. [Prior Resource Article on RGA ‘2022 Background Moves Here]

It is affirming to see that President Trump is watching these same tripwires as they are triggered.

As soon as Ron DeSantis makes his ’24 announcement (likely May, June or July – but he will be the last to enter), it will be the RGA who trigger the first wave of attacks against the MAGA base of voters.  Together with the controlled GOPe field, they will trigger a sequential process for republican governors to align with DeSantis.

Ahead of the DeSantis announcement, those who are aligned with the playbook will start to come in next, beginning with Nikki Haley on February 15th.  Each will have a billionaire donor class financier assigned to their specific SuperPAC support system.   I would expect Chris Sununu to quickly follow Haley.

(National Rifle) […] The Republican Governors Association (RGA) donated almost $21 million to the Friends of Ron DeSantis PAC, a massive war chest that politicos believe the Florida Governor will use to take on Trump in 2024, with the backing of the GOP establishment.

Over the year and a half that the RGA was dumping millions into the Friends of Ron DeSantis PAC, they gave zero dollars to Doug Mastriano, the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee for Governor of Pennsylvania, effectively surrendering the pivotal state to Democrats. (more)

I also suspect, nothing but a hunch based on research, that Kristi Noem may have rejected the early entreaties from the professional Republicans who are coordinating the roadmap.  If she didn’t reject something, the DeSantis crew would not be attacking her so hard.  If my hunch is correct, this position could make Noem a wildcard.

Joe Biden is a Foreign Agent, The Case Is Closed (Ep. 1941) – The Dan Bongino Show


Posted originally on Rumble on February 1, 2023

Biden controlled by China

Gallup Poll – Gov’t is Our Greatest Problem


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Gallup has just confirmed what our computer has been forecasting especially since 2011. The majority of Americans now say that a lack of leadership from President Biden and Congress is the country’s biggest problem and that means the entire world. Perhaps aliens should have a right to vote for the decisions of the Biden Administration are destroying lives around the world.

The Gallup Poll shows that it is the collapse of confidence in a government that is now viewed as the greatest threat even more so than inflation, ​the immigration crisis, and the state of the economy. Despite Americans suffering economically with higher taxes and inflation reducing the standard of living, they have cited that “the government/poor leadership” is now in the No. 1 spot taking that place from inflation over the past year. Gallup has reported that 21% of Americans name our incompetent government as the “most important problem facing this country today​” compared to the 15% who said so last year, a Gallup Poll found.

​Inflation and the economy ​came in last year as the top two issues — tied at 16% each — followed by the government (15%), immigration (8%), and unifying the country (6%). ​However, over the past year, Americans’ concerns with the economy fell 6% to 10%, with ​inflation falling one point to 15%, and immigration rose 3 points to 11%.

Just wait until they realize that the Biden Administration is so incompetent, it has allowed the Neocons to wage World War III on two fronts – China and Russia. These people will destroy Western Civilization and that is what 2032 is all about.

Fox News – “ominous Great Depression warning”


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Fox Business is reporting that economic conditions are much worse than you are being told.  Unfortunately, this is the conclusion when you have ZERO understanding of the historical trends and economic conditions. It is true that the shortages of COVID have caused prices to rise faster than economic growth and most incomes.  Therefore, they conclude that our standard of living has been rapidly declining.  The number reveals that more than one-third of all U.S. young adults are being supported in part by their parents. Thanks to COVID, this disrupted society far greater than anyone is reporting. In addition to the shortages because of the lockdowns, by the end of 2020, more than half of young adults in America were living with one or both parents. That statistic actually exceeded the record high of the Great Depression.

Here is the worst part of this analysis. Many are jumping on the bandwagon claiming that the decline in real disposable income has been the largest since 1932 and therefore, this is a warning sign of a Great Depression is coming. They seem to be focused on the fact that the GDP report showed a significant decline in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. Now let’s look closer!

First of all, the entire reason why unemployment rise to 25% during the latter part of the Great Depression was the Dust Bowl. Why? At that time, about 40% of the civil workforce was still agrarian. The Dust Bowl meant job loss. If you could not even plant crops, there was no need for people to pick crops.

Service during the Great Depression accounted for 17% of the workforce compared to 44%+ today. Government, federal, state, and local, was 22% of the civil workforce during the Great Depression compared to 33% by 1980. Things have continued to evolve and by 2019, services represent 79.41%. Agriculture is now a tiny fraction of what it once was – 1.41%.

In the USA, at the state level, their share of the civil workforce varies greatly. Florida is at about 11.3% compared to New Mexico which is 22.5% – a government employee’s paradise. The lowest is Michigan at 10.1%.

During the Great Depression, the entire reason for the collapse in disposable income was the collapse in agriculture which created a collapse in income due to massive unemployment. That is totally different from the crisis we have today.

Here we have rising prices due to shortages and then central banks raising interest rates in a fool’s quest to stop inflation when it is not based on speculation. Moreover, the biggest borrower is the government, and rising interest rates will only increase their exposure to keep rolling over the debt. Therefore, governments have been borrowing year after year. What happens when the public no longer buys their debt? Real disposable income has been collapsing for completely different reasons since 1932. Here we have the costs of everything rising and then these people want war with Russia and China. Every war since the start of recorded history has resulted in inflation. Add to this, the total insanity of trying to end climate change by outlawing fossil fuels at a time when the climate is prone to getting colder.

We are already witnessing riots around the world BECAUSE of inflation. During the Great Depression, people were suffering from DEFLATION. So comparing just that statistic of a decline in personal income and projecting we now face a Great Depression, does not even qualify to be classified as analysis. That is no different from someone warning that carrots must be lethal because everyone who has ever eaten a carrot has obviously died.

Military Surveillance Critics During COVID


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Jan 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Evidence is surfacing that the military was engaged in domestic surveillance in Britain as well as Canada of anyone who was a critic of the COVID lockdowns. It is very clear that there was no historic precedent whatsoever for locking down all of society for a virus that was not even lethal beyond the normal flu virus. All the data coming out on the fatalities and injuries surrounding the vaccines is another issue altogether.

There, the conspiracy theories have suggested that Pfizer has been behind a plot to actually reduce the population which has been a pet project of Bill Gates. It certainly does not do well for society as a whole when our fearless leaders hand absolute immunity to Pfizer to actually kill or maim as many people as they desire all because they did not take the time to really test their vaccines. I choose not to be vaccinated simply because once the government got involved by mandating, there was something seriously wrong and I have spent enough time behind the curtain I know politicians earn a couple hundred grand a year but manage to retire as multi-millionaires. Once the government gets involved, never trust anything. They do not prosecute themselves.

As far as the surveillance is concerned, they have no doubt assembled lists of those of us who resist the tyrannical decrees of the government. Those who resist being mindless drones are a threat to the survivability of the government. Hence, the lockdowns were a perfect way to sort out those who have a brain, and others who are just gullible and think the government is the adult version of Santa Claus. We are all on some secret list, that much we can count on. It has never been a Government of the People, but a Government Against the People as history has always shown for 6,000 years. It’s just all part of 2032.

Personal Lawyers Admit Joe Biden Took Classified Documents Home When He Was a Senator


Posted originally on the CTH on January 22, 2023 | sundance 

According to multiple media report [See Here and See Here] Joe Biden’s attorneys coordinated a friendly FBI search their client’s Delaware residence.  Lawyers for Biden were present and overseeing the FBI review of the home, when additional classified documents were discovered.

Interestingly, the Biden lawyers seemingly admit their client had been taking classified documents home for quite some time.  According to their statement (emphasis mine):

“DOJ took possession of materials it deemed within the scope of its inquiry, including six items consisting of documents with classification markings and surrounding materials, some of which were from the President’s service in the Senate and some of which were from his tenure as Vice President. DOJ also took for further review personally handwritten notes from the vice-presidential years.”   (link)

That statement was written by Joe Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer.  That’s interesting on many levels, including the fact that Bob Bauer is married to Anita Dunn. Mrs. Anita Dunn is one of the original people who helped put Barack Obama in the White House; and Dunn worked with President Obama throughout his terms.  Additionally, Anita Dunn is on the short list to replace Biden’s outgoing Chief of Staff, Ron Klain.

Many people have wondered if Joe Biden was being set up for failure over this classified document scandal.  In my opinion, the entire operation is being managed – but not to remove Biden, simply to control him and ensure he doesn’t run again.

When it comes to the insurance of their ideological long-term goals, democrats play cutthroat politics much better than most imagine.  Ask Bernie Sanders what it’s like to be viewed as an impediment to the ideological quest, and what lengths his party will take to cut you down.

Now overlay Joe Biden’s personal lawyer, Bob Bauer.   Think about who exactly it was discovering these documents and why.  If Obama is the silent partner in the background of the Biden administration, then Dunn is the operational manager.  If Dunn is the operational manager, then her husband is very useful as the principle’s attorney.  From the big picture, it sure looks like Bauer is playing the role of Brutus.

December Retail Sales Drop -1.1%, November Sales Data Revised Lower to -1.0%


Posted originally on the CTH on January 18, 2023 | Sundance 

There is something predictable about Main Street economics, eventually what you see around you overwhelms the great pretending.  CTH has been outlining the state of the consumer economy in great detail for quite a while, and though it is difficult to note when the outcomes will surface, eventually they do surface. [Reminder Here]

CONTEXT. CTH outlined the moment when the purchasing power of the U.S. middle class actually began contracting.  It was March and April of 2021 when that Rubicon was crossed.  We saw it in the second and third quarter data from 2021, but few were willing to admit.

What changed in those two months back in ’21 was a dramatic drop in the “unit sales” of stuff within the consumer economy.  The drop in unit sales was hidden because it happened simultaneously with the first wave of massive spike in prices.  Prices rose so fast the sales data was giving an artificial impression of sales growth, but in the background the actual unit sales dropped.   Those analysts correcting and adjusting historic data to ‘inflation adjusted terms’ are now noticing.

Additionally, and not coincidentally – because the metrics are connected, you will note this line from the Wall Street Journal review of the producer price index. “The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose 6.2% in December from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the slowest annual pace since March 2021.”  In essence, the current rate of wholesale price increase on materials is now returning to the rate of price increase that happened in the period when prices spiked.  Again, this is predictable.

Inflation is the measure of the ‘rate’ of price increase over time.  March and April of 2021 were the beginning of the first inflationary spike.

Driven almost entirely by the supply side shock from Biden energy policy, in the subsequent 20 months the rate of price increase skyrocketed, peaked August 2022, and now the rate of increase starts returning.  This does not mean price declines; this means the rate of growth in the price increase is lessening.

This is a cyclical outcome.

After 20 months of dropping unit sales, a result of massive price increases; and as the rate of inflation now starts to moderate created by the cyclical nature of it; what we now see is the inability of the price increases to continue hiding the drop in unit sales.   [Background pdf Data] Total retail sales data is now exposed and that’s why we will see this increasing story about negative sales data as the inflation cycle plateaus.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – Retail spending fell in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates, still-high inflation and concerns about a slowing economy pinched American consumers.

Purchases at stores, restaurants and online, declined a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in December from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales were also revised lower in November and have fallen three of the past four months.

The decline in retail spending late last year adds to signs that the U.S. economy is slowing. Hiring and wage growth eased in December, U.S. commerce with the rest of the world declined significantly in November, and existing-home sales have fallen for 10 straight months. The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that industrial production slumped in December, led by weakness in the manufacturing industry.

S&P Global downgraded its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth by a half percentage point to a 2.3% annual rate after Wednesday’s data releases. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month expect higher interest rates to tip the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year.

“The lag impact of elevated inflation weighs heavily on U.S. households, it’s very clear that the median American consumer is still reeling from the loss of wages in inflation-adjusted terms,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “We’re moving towards what I would expect to be a mild recession in 2023,” he added. (read more)

When the Baghdad Bob economic pretenders say, “mild recession,” anticipate something more akin to a mild nuclear meltdown, something with breadlines and soup kitchens.

Now, you must keep in mind that almost every financial media outlet used the same Retail Federation talking point about anticipating an 8% increase in holiday sales last year.  [Reminder] Apparently, collective pretenses must be maintained.  Meanwhile, news crews and camera crews were having a desperate time finding any holiday shopping to use as background footage for the claims that sales were strong.  Here we are in January and the pretending has hit reality.

Negative retail sales in November and December when prices are roughly +10% over the prior year, means the unit sales collapse was far more dramatic…. Far more.

Trying to survive policy driven price increases in housing costs, energy costs, electricity costs, home heating, food and fuel costs has forced consumers to reevaluate purchasing decisions.  Consumer demand for non-essential items has collapsed, and Americans are dig deep into their savings just to sustain unavoidable expenses.  Eventually, pretending this is not happening is going to run into the wall of reality.

On one hand the leaders of large multinationals must pretend everything is splendid; after all, the only acceptable position they can articulate is to support interest rates being raised because demand is just too darned high….  pretending.  But on the other hand – those same suppliers and multinationals are furiously trying to calculate how to avoid being stuck with billions worth of unsold inventory and idle industrial equipment.

Journalists don’t want to defend Biden because his policies have been disastrous: Sen. Ron Johnson


Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson calls out the Biden Family’s alleged corruption on ‘Hannity.’