Why I Look at the Dow First


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Nov 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Why do you focus on the Dow over the S&P 500 and others?

ANSWER: New analysts claim that the S&P 500 provides a better picture of the markets compared to the Dow. Although the S&P 500 obviously has a larger catalog, the Dow is a direct reflection of international capital flows. Look toward the Dow to see where big money is moving.

The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index. The NASDAQ typically reflects retail, often tech-heavy, and usually does not peak at the same time. Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the big money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital based on currency. You will also notice the Dow tends to top out first because the big money tends to pull out first also due to currency.

Capital is flowing like never before, and the smart money is on the move. Socrates users have access to our capital flow heat map that shows where money is moving in real time. The USD remains the last safe haven, and money is pouring into the US. Look to the Dow for the best international perspective.

Thoughtful Monologue, Tucker Carlson Discusses the Potential Impact of a Free Speech Twitter


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue Friday evening to outline his perspective on the Elon Musk takeover of the social media platform Twitter.   Generally, Carlson does a good job framing the big picture of national events; however, Carlson outdid himself on this contextualized delivery.

While the underlying premise of Carlson’s position is structured on a yet-to-be-seen possibility of free speech, the context for the importance of the moment is very well presented.  I hope that Tucker Carlson is correct in regard to the altruistic intent of Mr. Musk.  Well worth watching:

.

Carlson’s monologue reminded me of Oleg’s brilliant take on this moment in history (picture below):

Jim Cramer on Bear Stearns (2008)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Sep 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This is a reminder of why I warn against listening to the talking heads. Unlike advanced AI software, these mouthpieces speak from a biased perspective. On March 11, 2008, Jim Cramer told his audience on CNBC’s “Mad Money” that “Bear Stearns was fine!” At the time, the stock was going for $62 before crashing down to $2 only five days later.

When a viewer wrote in to Cramer to ask about Bear Sterns experiencing a liquidity crisis, Cramer shouted: “NO, NO, NO! BEAR STEARNS IS FINE! DO NOT TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT! If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” He added, “I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.”

Cramer later tried to claim he never said to buy the stock, but was simply discussing the banking sector. He was trying to prevent a panic, he claimed. In reality, this man has repeatedly made poor calls, yet still remains on air. His screaming tirades are interrupted by commercials and his show is nothing more than the QVC of stocks.

Cramer is an entertainer. Even if I were to go on TV and make forecasts solely from my own viewpoint, I would be doing a disservice to my audience. If you’re looking for true analysis, then there is only one tool that is unbiased and capable of tracking every market around the world.

President Trump MAGA Rally, Wilkes-Barre Pennsylvania, 7:00pm ET Livestream Links


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 3, 2022 | Sundance 

A lot has happened since President Trump last held a MAGA rally.  As noted by his account on Truth Social, the president has a lot to say about recent events involving the DC political and justice system intended to target himself and the American people who support America-First.

Tonight’s rally is in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Pennsylvania and President Trump’s remarks are scheduled to begin at 7:00pm ET, with pre-rally speakers ongoing.  The crowd is massive, as shown earlier by RSBN, as MAGA patriots from around the region are supporting President Trump in his epic battle against a corrupt political swamp.

RSBN Livestream Link – Trump Campaign Livestream – Alternate Livestream Link

.

.

.

President Trump CPAC Introduction Video


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance 

This was the introduction video for President Donald Trump before his CPAC speech. {Direct Rumble LinkEnjoy

It’s the Family You Remember


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Aug 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: GREAT idea to take the family to Yellowstone!!

I am 79 yrs old and my dad took the family there when I was in secondary school. He and mom were school teachers so they had all summer off. Not that far a drive from the east side of New Mexico.

Strongly urge everyone to take the time for holiday adventures with the family to create some memories. On our death bed we will not recall a list of work-related events, but family memories.

UD

REPLY: Yes. The family trips were the memories that endure. Even before my mother died, I had taken all the old 8mm films my father took and converted them to disk. She wanted to see them to relive her life before she passed. I remember the family trip to Europe for the summer. This was me watching an artist painting St Mark’s Square in Venice. That is what endures when all else fades away.

Nature v Humans


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Aug 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Sorry, I took a break with the family and went to Yellowstone National Park. My father took me there 60 years ago and it was so spectacular. I always remembered being there as a kid. So I suppose it is a family tradition now knowing that probably my grandchildren will take their children there. So, while empires, nations, and city-states rise and fall throughout history, despite the climate zealots that blame everything on humans as if we are a plague that should be exterminated, nature endures.

Even the Bisen are not afraid of cars. If they decide to eat the grass on the side of the road and block traffic, they have the right of way. Yellowstone is off the grid. Cell phone reception is very spotty and if you stay at the famous Old Faithful Inn, there is no air conditioning or Wi-Fi. So prepare to ruff it. You are really disconnected from the world.

President Trump Keynote Address CPAC 2022 – 6:30pm Livestream


Posted originally on the conservative tree house August 6, 2022 | sundance 

President Trump will be delivering the final keynote address to the CPAC audience in Dallas, Texas today.  The anticipated start time is 6:30pm ET.

Livestream below {Direct Rumble Link}:

Candidate Joe Kent Pulls to Within 257 Votes in Washington State, With 30,000 Ballots Remaining to Be Counted


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance

As each batch of ballots is counted in Washington State’s 3rd congressional district, MAGA candidate Joe Kent has gained significant ground.

Republican Joe Kent is now within striking distance of primarying Jaime Herrera Beutler, with approximately 30,000 ballots remaining to be counted.

[New York Times Link]

Jamie Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach President Trump and is one of the MAGA targets for 2022, now has 41,603 votes.  Trump-endorsed Joe Kent has moved from a several thousand vote deficit, into the latest result of 41,346 votes.  The difference is now down to 257 votes.

Washington State has that jungle primary voting system where the top two candidate’s face-off in the general election. According to Kent on Twitter, there are 30,000 ballots left to be counted.  Prayers up!!  Joe Kent might just pull off this victory.

If the next batch of 30,000 ballots, carries the same ratio as today’s batch of 22,000 ballots, Joe Kent will take the lead.

The Great MAGA King Donald J Trump Dominates TPUSA Poll For 2024 With 79%, DeSantis 19%,


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 24, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden officially declared that Donald J Trump is “the Great MAGA King,” during a speech last month.

Well, according to the latest polling results from the Turning Point USA, Student Action Summit, a new generation would agree with Biden.  Donald Trump wins the 2024 straw poll with 79% support. The next closest candidate was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 19%, and all other candidates are asterisks.

(Via Fox News) – Tampa, Fla.– Former President Donald Trump dominated the 2024 GOP presidential nomination straw poll at the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit Sunday, Fox News has learned.

TPUSA polled conference attendees—youth activists from around the country—who they would vote for in 2024 if Trump decided to launch another White House run. The straw poll was sponsored by Turning Point Action, the affiliated 501(c)(4) of TPUSA. 78.7% attendees said they would vote for Trump.

19% said they would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 1% said they’d vote for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, 0.5% said they’d vote for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; 0.3% said they would vote for Sen. Ted Cruz, 0.3% said they’d vote for former Amb. Nikki Haley; and 0.3% said they’d vote for former Vice President Mike Pence.

Trump spoke at the conference Saturday night, hinting at a 2024 run. His speech was the keynote on the second day of the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit. Trump’s speech followed one Friday night by DeSantis, who’s considered along with Trump one of the foremost potential GOP 2024 contenders. (read more)

P