Posted originally on Mar 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Prime Minister Donald Tusk initially promised to double the annual tax-free income allowance to 60,000 zloty (€13,929), but now “there is no room” in the budget. Why? All of the money is going to Ukraine.
Poland increased its defense budget to 3% of GDP in 2022, followed by a raise to 4% in 2023. Poland provides NATO with more funding as a percentage of GDP than any other European nation.
It will not be possible to double the tax-free income allowance to 60,000 zloty – which Donald Tusk had promised to do this year – until 2026 at the earliest, says the finance minister.
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) March 25, 2024
The reason that Poland is unable to say when or how they will decrease taxes is WAR. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański is promising the people that the government will fulfill its promises by 2026. “In my opinion, at the moment, there is no room for the tax-free amount to increase to PLN 60,000 next year,” he told Polsat News. “We are in a near-war situation. We have rapidly increasing defence spending …The scale of incoming defence spending is really high,” the prime minister said, highlighting how much the Polish government is currently spending on Ukraine.
Polish exports to Ukraine rose 25% in 2017. In 2022, Ukraine exported $6.7 billion in goods to Poland, primarily in agricultural products, while Poland provided Ukraine with $9.07 billion in mainly energy and ammunition. The war in Ukraine has only strengthened trade between the neighboring coutries.
Russia has no intention of invading Poland, despite the government’s fearmongering. Instead, the people are being forced to fund an endless war on behalf of their government. The fact that the government cannot determine when funds will be free for use shows that they are planning for a prolonged battle on Ukrainian soil.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The West wants war DESPERATELY with Russia. The Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorskihas come straight out and admitted on Friday, March 8th, that “NATO military personnel are already present in Ukraine.” They can’t wait to draw the first blood. Russia has NEVER had any intention of invading Europe. It has always been the other way around. This entire war was staged from the outset and was intended to force Russia to defend its own people in the Donbas. The West needs this war because the financial system can no longer be sustained. Governments default when they can no longer sell new debt to pay off the old. We are dangerously approaching that, and the war will be the excuse for default, like in World War II.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksensaid she decided Denmark would send its artillery units to Ukraine. Meanwhile, NATO is moving nuclear missiles to the border with Russia. There is absolutely NOT ONE LEADER interested in seeking peace. Every single one is pushing for World War III ASAP. They all have their bunkers, so personally, they do not care about the people they are supposed to represent. The population has already been decided to be thinned out like a herd of sheep. Look at any war – more civilians ALWAYS die than soldiers.
There is no war where people have EVER been told the truth. Many in the so-called power positions were manipulated themselves. They are still debating the real causes behind World War I. I can tell you from what I know that the REAL reason behind the Iraq War was this idea of REGIME CHANGE throughout the Middle East would create peace by bringing in DEMOCRACY – which we do not even enjoy. Many officials do not know the real reason behind Iraq.
The object here has ALWAYS been Regime Change. These people convince themselves if they invade Russia and overthrow Putin, the Russian people will cheer. That is a bunch of Neocons patting each other on the bank as to how brilliant they are. The sanctions on Russia were supposed to get the stupid Russian people to rise up and overthrow Putin to remove the sanctions. I never heard such stupidity in my life. This is why NOT A SINGLE REASON for war ever involves the truth. They manipulate those in power, like hand-puppets, to do their bidding, as we see it taking place right now.
While the computer shows that Trump should win, I still cannot see how they will allow that to take place. They need Biden, and they are looking to start this war by May or July/August, JUST IN CASE Trump wins and their assassination schemes fail.
Posted originally on the CTH on March 7, 2024 | Sundance
I visited Warsaw twice last month and can provide some ‘boots on the ground’ background context for what is taking place as the Polish farmers begin protesting against the regime of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
The first thing to understand is that Warsaw is to Poland almost exactly as Washington DC is to the United States – which is to say, a capitol subculture of leftists and WEF minded globalists totally disconnected from the social mindset of the rest of the country. The Warsaw of the 80’s and 90’s Solidarity Movement no longer exists, which explains the installation of Tusk in opposition to the generally lulled to complacency Polish people. Sound familiar?
“European agriculture policies and Ukrainian cheap grain, burning tires outside of Prime Minister Tusk’s office, as up to 100 THOUSAND more protestors expected to flood streets of Warsaw.”
The protests are not about Ukraine farm products (Western narrative); they are protesting the Build Back Better (Green New Deal) climate change nonsense regulations that will put them out of business and hurt the Polish people.
The German farmers and middle class workers organized their logistics brilliantly. The farmers approached Berlin from every angle, using all the arterial roads as points of entrance to surround the city. The German farmers came into each artery in two columns: column A at the front and column B in the back.
Column A drove into the city; column B remained outside the city blocking the streets. It was a smart way logistically to protest, and German officials could not respond because they were blocked. German truckers and transportation workers assisted the protest with non-compliance highlighting their support. The German government acquiesced to the farmers.
The French farmer protests learned from the Germans, and they too were successful in their logistical protest against the French government. The French government acquiesced to the French farmer’s demands.
However, the Polish government saw the effective strategy as it began spreading around the EU. Tusk brought into Warsaw an advanced police group. As the Polish farmers moved into the center of Warsaw, they encountered a heavily fortified Polish security force. Tempers flared and physical confrontation was the outcome.
WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland saw its most violent protest by farmers and supporters yet Wednesday as some participants threw stones at police and tried to push through barriers around parliament, injuring several officers, police said.
Police used tear gas and said they detained over a dozen people and prevented the protesters from getting through to the Sejm, the Polish parliament.
Farmers are angry over European Union climate policies and food imports from Ukraine that they say threaten their livelihoods. Such protests have occurred across the 27-member EU in recent weeks, but this one was decidedly angrier than earlier demonstrations in the central European nation.
Police noted on the social media platform X that its officers “are not a party to the ongoing dispute” and warned that behavior threatening their safety “cannot be taken lightly and requires a firm and decisive response.”
The deputy agriculture minister, Michał Kołodziejczak, said he didn’t believe that “real, normal farmers caused a riot in front of the Sejm today,” and that it was necessary to isolate “provocateurs and troublemakers.”
He did not say who he thought was behind the violence.
Farmers on tractors blocked highways leading into Warsaw while thousands of their supporters gathered in front of the prime minister’s office before marching to the parliament. Some trampled a European Union flag and burned a mock coffin bearing the word “farmer.”
Farmers were joined by miners, foresters, hunters and other supporters. They blew horns and set off firecrackers and smoke bombs, despite police warnings that the use of pyrotechnics was banned. Some protesters burned tires.
The protesters are demanding a withdrawal from the EU’s Green Deal, a plan meant to fight climate change and protect biodiversity, including with plans requiring farmers to reduce the excessive use of polluting chemicals to boost their crops. The protests have led politicians to water down some provisions. (read more)
The area around the U.S Embassy in Warsaw is no longer a place of well-kept landscape honoring Ronald Reagan and the Polish Solidarity Movement. All of those pesky vestiges of freedom are in disrepair or being removed.
That said, let us hope () the American resistance movement is watching the logistical success of the truckers and farmers in Germany and France.
Let the people enter the capitol for protest marches, while the support system infrastructure disrupts the arteries that encircle the core.
Posted originally on the CTH on February 3, 2024 | Sundance
Things are getting very interesting in the EU, specifically the nations with significant uprisings of farmers and truckers.
What I find interesting in this Reuters story, is the first time one of the MSM publications has been willing to identify the true intent of the protests.
WARSAW, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Polish farmers from the Solidarity trade union plan a general strike starting next Friday with a blockade of border crossings between Poland and Ukraine, it said, joining similar protests, opens new tab all over Europe.
Farmers in France, Belgium, Portugal, Greece and Germany have been protesting against the constraints placed on them by EU measures to tackle climate change, as well as rising costs and unfair competition from abroad. Polish farmers have been particularly vocal about the impact of cheap food imports from neighbouring Ukraine.
“Our patience has run out. Brussels’ position on the last day of January 2024 is unacceptable for our entire agricultural community,” the trade union said in a statement dated Thursday.
“Additionally, the passivity of the Polish authorities… regarding the import of agricultural produce and food products from Ukraine leave us with no other choice but to declare a general strike.”
The European Commission said it was listening closely to the concerns expressed by farmers in protests taking place in several member states. (read more)
I arrive in Poland at noon tomorrow… I’ll let you know what I find, and what comes next…
Posted originally on Jan 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Name: Dear Martin Re your Blog: Poland’s New Government, Pro-War, Pro-EU I kept a copy of your blog ‘Poland & Niger ‘ Posted Aug 9, 2023. along with a screen-shot of the August projected ECM for Poland highlighting October 26th as the next turning point:
FYI, it was this day that President Duda called for a new Polish parliament to convene after the October 15th elections, one to be led by former (unelected) EU President Donald Tusk. It is not a complete Left turn, more of a veering Left, as he needed to form a coalition in order to form a government.
However, Tusk’s first port of call was the European Commission, where a previously withheld grant of 59 Billion Euro was waiting for him, once Poland had complied with European Commission directives – which Tusk is keen to do. I fear for Poland’s future and fear we are being sold down the river as the next buffer in line after Ukraine has lost the next batch of 500,000 drafted soldiers.
Thank you for all the work that you have put into Socrates; its projections are amazing.
Anon
REPLY: It has been a fascinating discovery that has targeted so many things precisely to the very day. In 1985, I was called in for they were looking to create the G5, which became the Plaza Accord that set out to force the manipulation of the dollar lower to help reduce the trade deficit. I wrote even to President Reagan at the time.
I even took the back page of the Economist in July 1985 for three weeks to announce that the model had forecast that was the end of deflation, the peak in the dollar, and the low in gold. For 40 years, I have been trying to demonstrate that this model confirms that there has been a business cycle that can be projected decades in advance.
From the 1985 low in our model, which projected the peak in the dollar, the next turning point was 1987. That produced the 1987 Crash precisely to the day, and then the next turning point not only pinpointed the peak in the Japanese economy and the Bubble Top in their share market but projected the collapse of Communism as well. The Pi Target produced the day of the ERM Crisis in Europe, and then the wave ended in 1994.25, and once again, that was the precise day of the low in the US share market. That projected the shift of the capital flows, which initially moved from Japan to South East Asia. Still, the capital flows returned to the USA and Europe, anticipating the coming Euro in 1998.
I was stunned when the 1987 Crash happened precisely on that day. Because the low was the very ECM date of October 19th, 1987, I told clients that the low was in place and we would make new highs going into the next turning point, 1989.95. That forecast was also correct, even though many thought it was crazy and impossible. The banks attributed the model’s accuracy to my influence simply because my firm was the largest institutional adviser worldwide. They complained to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who even subpoenaed me, demanding I turn over a list of all my clients worldwide and they would prove I was manipulating the world economy. I defended against them in court and won.
The next wave, #932, covered 1994.25 to 2002.85. The US share market bottomed on the precise day 1994.15; it rallied and peaked precisely on July 20th, 1998, and bottomed on 2002.85, three days after that target. This wave saw the Asian Currency Crisis as a turning point, the collapse of Russia, taking down Long-Term Capital Management, and the Pi Target produced the precise day of the 9/11 attack. So, this was an incredibly accurate wave.
I am working hard on trying to finish the book on this model. I am trying to go through the waves and to show there is a hidden order behind what people think is just this random walk theory, which was devised by people who could not comprehend cycles. As I have said many times in school, they said the economy is random so that the government can manipulate us at will – i.e., Keynesian economics. But that has failed, and I hope to get this out, documenting that the global economy is not random. Everything is connected, and we must start looking at the accuracy of this model that the New Yorker Magazine called The Secret Cycle.
It is about time we take that small step forward for mankind. If we understand how we are all connected, including climate and disease, then maybe we would stop this insane one-dimensional analysis that plagues humanity.
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
As of yesterday, Poland has issued a new directive that if you are called for military service, you have just 6 hours to report. The penalty for failure to report is three years in prison. If you cannot make it there in 6 hours, call the commander and explain why. If you fail to show up and avoid military service, you will be imprisoned for five years.
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
It’s a real crime what’s happening to the Polish people at the hands of what many see as traitors who are taking directives from foreign organizations that will take Poland into a disastrous war with Russia. Poland’s right-wing, now opposition, has called on its supporters to protest against this new pro-European Union government. Unfortunately, our political models on Poland warned that with eight years (8.6) under the Law and Justice party, they would lose, and the shift would be to the globalist agenda in last October’s parliamentary elections. The protest was called for the same day when the Supreme Court was to rule on the validity of the election in the first place.
Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The dollar avoided any sell signals against the zloty at the end of 2023. You have overhead resistance at 4.02 and 4.20. If the low of 2023 now holds, this does not look good for Poland going forward. April will be the critical target in 2024, and we see the danger of higher volatility with a Panic Cycle in October.
Posted originally on Jan 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Ukrainian goods are flooding into the European Union through neighboring nations and undermining business. Poland-Ukraine relations have turned sour in recent months as both truckers and farmers from the former believe EU regulations are favoring Ukraine’s economy over their own. Truckers in Poland began blocking four ports of entry from Ukraine in November. Polish farmers set up a barricade at the Shehyni-Medyka crossing after temporarily allowing passage over the Christmas holiday.
The Polish government is siding with the protestors and agreeing to meet most demands. This was a massive protest involving over 3,000 trucks. Instead of pulling a Trudeau and arresting everyone involved in the trucker protest, the government took their concerns into consideration – what a novelty.
Polish truckers began the protests that sparked a second wave of protests from farmers. The truckers were furious that the European Union was permitting Ukrainian truckers to enter Poland without any limitations. Before the war, Ukrainian drivers needed to secure a permit to enter Poland to ensure that Polish and Ukraine border crossings remained relatively equal. The European Union removed this restriction and gave Ukrainian truckers a major advantage. Poland’s new prime minister, Donald Tusk, said there was nothing he could do unless the European Union complied.
Then the farmers became involved, as they were livid amid the agriculture and Ukrainian grain export ban. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria all saw cheaper grain and other agricultural products coming in from Ukraine by the truckload and undermining their own businesses. Zelensky went as far as threatening embargos on Polish agriculture and lawsuits against the Polish government if they expanded their ban on grain imports. The European Commission even threatened to punish Poland if they did not resolve the blockade.
The European Business Association believes that losses equated to $27,000 per day of the blockade. The Federation of Employers of Ukraine believes the figure is closer to $465 million in November and $614 million in October. The estimated cost varies significantly, but both sides experiences losses. Some truckers reportedly had to wait WEEKS before they could enter Poland.
Polish Minister of Agriculture Cheslav Sekersky has said the embargo on Ukrainian goods is in effect indefinitely. However, Sekersky is agreeing to meet some of the protestors’ demands. Warsaw will not raise the agricultural tax this year, and the government will provide farmers with low-interest loans. Warsaw has asked the EU to provide their farmers with corn subsidies to the tune of $250 million for corn alone, and they are requesting $600 million for general loans. European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski said that he will ask the EU to implement further restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products.
I speak on how state laws in America are of the utmost importance as we enter 2024. This is also true regarding national laws among the nations in the EU. The tyrannical European Commission will be exposed as a giant regulator that does not benefit the majority of member nations. Their role is becoming more apparent as the EU sides with Ukraine over their own member states.
Poland has not been attacked by terrorists because they do not allow them within their borders. MEP Dominik Tarczynski delivered a cutting speech addressed to the “Dear Leftists” who have lost in Polish elections eight consecutive times. He tells the left that they will continually lose because the people of Poland do not want illegal migration.
Tarczynski explains that Poland has one of the lowest levels of unemployment in the Eurozone, and permitting in immigrants under the guise of “skilled workers” is unnecessary. The European Union is run by the globalist elites who are pushing for open borders. Yet another reason why individual European nations are questioning their position within the union as Brussels is pressuring all nations to adopt their ideologies.
I mentioned in another article that nearly 70% of violent crime in France is committed by migrants. There are extreme risks involved when mixing cultures that do not align. Poland is taking additional measures to protect its border, announcing that they will be searching vehicles traveling from Slovakia for illegal aliens. “We don’t want anyone alleging that our border is porous,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. This comes after it was discovered that certain Polish embassies were illegally selling EU work visas for thousands of euros.
Dominik Tarczynski said something quite interesting in his speech. Do not tell us about democracy. Brussels shouts about democracy from their high horses while ruling as tyrants. Putin recently condemned America for losing its ability to preach about democracy.
America does not have fair elections, and the president is a blatant criminal who has his main opponent arrested. “It shows the rottenness of the US political system that can’t claim to teach others democracy,” Putin stated. “What happened to Trump is a motivated prosecution of a political rival.” The world can see how divided Western nations have become due to the leftist globalists pushing forth the Build Back Better agenda that first required the ruin of nations.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, We met when you came to lecture here in Poland. Everything you warned about has unfolded right down to a dollar high in 2022, followed by a low in 2023. The majority now are against the government. We, too, fear that the election may be rigged later this year. Putting all these troops on the border with Ukraine, which includes 40,000 Americans, has raised grave concerns that our government will cross the border in hopes of getting Russia to attack our troops to justify NATO invoking Article V. Some are starting to wonder if our government needs to get Russia to attack us to suspend elections as Zelensky has done in Ukraine.
What do you see for Poland ahead?
Aleksy
ANSWER: Yes, it has been quite a while. Thank you for recommending Krakow. It was beautiful. Loved the architecture and vast square. I know the concerns there about the upcoming elections. We have a Panic Cycle in November. I am also aware of the idea of Polish troops crossing the border and taking the Western portion of Ukraine, which used to be their territory. Putin has warned about this, but the Western press calls it misinformation and Russian propaganda. Then you have Yevgeny Prigozhin in Belarus with his eyes on Poland. Your government is indeed pushing the envelope.
The risk remains that the greenback will rise into 2027, which seems to be more on the threat of war. You have Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia with severe concerns about Russia retaking the region. The Russian people are not really interested in that. Much of that propaganda has been spread by the ISW and NATO, which is desperate to remain relevant.
I think Zelensky’s days are numbered. If he is assassinated, it will be for what he has done to Ukraine. The social media in Ukraine shows funerals and images of the dead. The kill ratio is 5 Ukrainian soldiers to even one Russian and that comes from Ukraine – not Russia.
Ukraine is losing badly. That is my concern that the Polish/American Troops will cross the border begging for Russia to attack them so they can indeed invoke Article V. The share market is going to roll over. Closing below last week’s low should spark a correction, and the volatility should start next week.
Insofar as this election being rigged, I appreciate the concern. Poland will reach a critical turning point on October 26th, 2023, which is now 34 years from the overthrow of communism on June 4th, 1989. There should be a shift in politics; ideally, the present government should lose. That remains to be seen.
We seem to be begging to start another proxy war against Russia in the middle of Africa. There was a coup overthrowing the government, and you have people chanting chanting “Wagner” and raising Russian flags. The whole problem has been the Neocons and their private propaganda machine, the ISW, keep projecting that Russia is weak and they can take it down. Russia can manufacture all the weapons it needs, and it is one of the wealthiest countries on the planet regarding natural resources. These people are putting out fake news to encourage war, telling everyone the West can win.
This is more akin to the US Civil War, where the North had all the capacity to manufacture weapons, and the South had been primarily an agrarian society. The South needed money and supplies from Europe.
Secretary of State William Henry Seward (1801–1872) for the North was deeply concerned that no foreign nation would intervene in the conflict on behalf of the Confederacy. Russia came to Seward’s aid to protect the US from a European invasion. Russia sent its warships to protect New York City and San Francisco in 1863 against the British and French, who perhaps considered the American Civil War an opportunity to conquer the United States.
In contrast, the Confederate diplomats desperately attempted to convince the stronger European countries to come to their aid and intercede on their behalf. These diplomats were successful in helping to convince Great Britain and France, two European countries that had much at stake in the outcome of the American conflict, to legally confer belligerent status upon the Confederacy, which recognized it as a nation engaged in war. In other words, they recognized the South as independent. In contrast, today, the West refuses to grant that to the Donbas in Ukraine despite the Minsk Agreement and the fact that the people there are Russian, while Ukraine outlaws their language and their religion.
In fact, Abraham Lincoln drew his Emancipation Proclamation taking the actions of Tsar Alexander II (b: 1818; 1855–1881), who issued his own Emancipation Manifesto on March 3rd, 1861, emancipating 23 million Russian serfs. American abolitionists cheered his action and pushed for Lincoln to do the same, which he finally did on January 1st, 1863. Russians were actually shocked when the American states descended into armed conflict over the issue. In Russia, the serf owned nothing, and they were not happy. They embraced Marxism, and the first Russian Revolution followed in 1905, 43 years later (8.6/2).
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
) the American resistance movement is watching the logistical success of the truckers and farmers in Germany and France.
Centinel2012 