Right v Wrong

Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I have been following you now for a few years. You seem to be never wrong. You always say it is not your opinion. Is there some secret to how you do this? Nobody else seems to even compare. Or is it all just the computer?


ANSWER: We all are human and as such we make mistakes. I understand that the big picture with war and events seems to be never wrong. That is Socrates – not me. I have been wrong in regard to my interpretation at times, but the cycles are always correct like the ECM.

I was one of the first International Hedge Fund Managers. I had even warned Congress back in 1985 that they should merge the CFTC and SEC because complying with one meant you went to prison with the other. They forced funds management offshore. We are all connected. You cannot have gold rise to $10,000 and the dollar turns to dust and nothing else happens. The world economy is like a set of dominoes. If you get the first one right, all the rest will follow.

These people who try to forecast one market can NEVER be correct for the wildcard always comes externally. Right now, the Ukraine war is impacting the global economy and markets. You could not asses the impact by simply watching the Fed. If it were not for (1) the stupid lockdowns of COVID disrupting the supply chain, then (2) this proxy war against Russia and imposing the absurd sanctions on them when they are a key supplier around the world in many areas, then inflation would not have risen and the Fed would not be raising interest rates. Those in power simply only look in front of their nose. Every action has a ripple effect that impacts long-term events. We cannot escape that. I have designed Socrates to survive me. It is not my opinion and when I do express my opinion I state the difference. Even my interpretation of an array can be wrong, not the array.

Everything is connected. We cannot escape that. Without Socrates monitoring everything around the world and writing its own reports on over 1,000 instruments globally, there is nobody who can possibly compete with a personal opinion. The world is far too complex for an individual to see everything from a personal gut feeling.

Because I had focused on currencies from the collapse of Bretton Woods and was called into the first bank failure in 1973 because of a 7% move in currencies,  my company attracted clients from around the world. I had to see the world through everyone’s eyes – not just the dollar. In July 1985, I took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks announcing the end of deflation/peak in the dollar, and the reemergence of inflation, which led to the Japanese Bubble in 1989. Interest Rates peaked the very day at 1981.35. The end of that wave was 1985.65 the month of July. It was the beginning of a Private Wave which will end 2037.25.

We published charts back in Barron’s during the early 1980s showing gold in dollars compared to a basket of currencies. We ended up with the largest institutions in the world because our reports went out on telex and the communication costs per market were $225 per day. Only the biggest institutions could afford our services. Then came fax, and then email which has expanded our reach to everyone these days. But make no mistake about this. People may criticize me and others are desperate to try to prevent people from using us. It is either because they cannot compete and pretend this is my opinion rather than a computer, or they want to manipulate the markets and we just get in their way.

Another Brick in the Wall

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is rare for a celebrity to speak out against the agenda. Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters has reached a level of fame where he can question the status quo as his legacy is sealed. Waters called Biden a “war criminal” for encouraging the war in Ukraine. “This war is about the action and reaction of NATO pushing right up to the Russian border, which they promised they wouldn’t do when Gorbachev negotiated the withdrawal of the USSR,” Waters declared. Amazing how a musician understands the situation better than politicians.

CNN attempted to argue with Waters, but he held firm. The reporter attempted and failed to belittle Waters by saying he should see Russia as the enemy as his father died in the last world war. However, that is precisely what Waters and any sensible human are aiming to avoid – another world war. “Don’t forget 23 million Russians died protecting you and me from the Nazis,” Waters said.

He then asked the reporter what he thought America would do if China began to line up on the US border. We all know the answer to that question. Imagine if China placed nuclear weapons in or near Canada and Mexico? The nuclear apocalypse would have already happened.

Many hold the same views as Roger Waters, but they are too afraid to speak up. The average person, who may not tune into political commentary, will listen to celebrities when they speak. The problem becomes the fear of cancelation. It is career suicide to question the current agenda. Pink Floyd cannot be canceled; they’ve been popular for far too many decades. The left “hippies” of the past are nothing like the hipsters today who encourage war and echo the voices of the elite.

Division of Pure Hatred

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Nov 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Marty
Are we indeed witnessing this divide between socialists/Marxists and conservatives/sensible people worldwide not just in the USA? Is this the last worldwide battle against marxism (anti-God)?
Look at Brazil. No different. In the protests yesterday several Lula supporters actually ran over Bolsonaristas who were protesting in the street. At least 5 were taken to the hospital and reports of some deaths. They were filmed on people’s phones. It’s horrible what the left will do.
Is this the point where we all need to choose a side and step up to be counted? Freedom has to be fought for it seems.


ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. While the United States is deeply divided and will ultimately break up as will Europe, our politicians have been fanning the flames of division. The controversy that Tucker Carlson created by characterizing Jammie Raskin as saying “Russia is an Orthodox Christian country with traditional social values. And for that reason, it must be destroyed no matter what the cost to us.”  Tucker’s interpretation of Raskin’s speech is incorrect. Implied by Raskin was that the Democrats stand for freedom and politicians should not be telling you what to do. He insinuates that Putin rejects those ideas implied because it is an Orthodox Christian Country. Putin has rejected the West’s cancel culture and teaching sexual fluidity to children he called a Crime against Humanity.

Putin has said that the cancel culture, and divisions of people, were once part of Russia and led to its demise. Yes, he stands against homosexuality, and this is part of what is inferred by Raskin that Russia is not as liberal and rejects the principles of Wokeness and the push of the Democrats. Did Raskin outright call for a religious war? No. However, his vitriol is rather absurd pretending that the Democrats stand for democracy and freedom when they are dictating how everyone should live from heating their homes to what they drive. Then, he pretends that America stands for Ukraine while refusing to explain that Zelensky has outlawed Russian to be spoken by Russians in the Donbas and that they are to surrender their religious beliefs as well.

On September 6th, 2014, an official statement was made illustrating the religious battle that was also unfolding. The new Patriarch Filaret, who heads the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyivan Patriarchate, came out and said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has fallen under the spell of Satan and faces eternal damnation to hell unless he repents.

The Western press refuses to report the antics of Zelensky. He has waged a holy war. He has raised the so-called Patriarch of Kyiv and ordered all the Russians in the Donbas that their churches are now to be subsidiaries of Kyiv. He has supplanted the Patriarch of Moscow replacing him with his Kyiv version effectively this is like replacing the Pope with some local bishop. The French did that by seizing the Papacy and moving it from Rome to Avignon. But, hey, Zelensky stands for freedom and democracy while refusing to honor the Mink Agreement that was to allow the Donbas to vote on their independence. So much for democracy.

Why should there be one country under God? It was the Civil War that saw the motto “IN GOD WE TRUST” appears on American Currency in 1864. God is no longer part of the foundation of the United States. Marxism is forbidden by the Ten Commandments. Religion has been under assault in America for quite some time. Some have argued that getting rid of paper money will even kill that motto once and for all.

There is nothing about the United States that adheres to any religious dogma. This idea of “freedom” is really freedom from any religious restraint. This is what has divided the country deeply and the Democrats are looking to win on Abortion. There were extreme abortion supporters who supported even an abortion right after birth. Even the Washington Post had to question that one. I suppose we can do away with the death penalty and just call it post-birth abortion to make it sound better and legal.

The world is divided. Politicians have caused havoc worldwide. They are only interested in winning at all costs and have been demonizing their opponents and that simply divides the country just as Hillary called everyone who voted for Trump, 50%+ – DEPLORABLES. Let’s face it. Both sides are running campaigns of hate.

The United States is already divided. History confirms that a house divided like this cannot possibly stand. The post-2032 era will be a period where society must come to grips with how to design a nation from scratch. The politicians have fueled the politics of hate. I for one could never see myself even dating someone from the other side politically. It would result in constant arguments and at the end of the day, you just cannot live with someone who would be opposed to all your basic beliefs.

Itching for Another Conflict, Biden Regime Turns Toward North Korea

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 3, 2022 | Sundance

According to U.S. Pentagon officials and representatives of South Korea, the North Korean military tested another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBN).

The ICBM was fired around 7:40 a.m. local time from close to Pyongyang’s Sunan area and is seen as a provocation by the Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and South Korea’s (ROK) Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup.

During a Pentagon press conference, no one in media seemed to be puzzled about the timing of North Korea’s ICBM test or the conspicuously convenient ROK Defense Secretary Lee Jon-sup being in Washington DC.  Apparently, as the story is told, Jon-sup’s visit was just an odd coincidence, I digress.

The contrast is stark, yet no one in the media will ever point it out.  During President Trump’s term in office the Republic of Korea (South) and the Democrat People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North), were not in conflict.  There was even widespread discussion of a peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula between Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Moon Jae-in.

During the Trump administration, there were no tensions as President Trump brought the two Korea’s together and brokered both sides in the direction of sustainable peace. President Trump leveraged his own position, and the economic strength of the U.S. to weaken the influence of China upon the DPRK and Trump created breathing room for Kim and Jae-in to remove conflict.  Fast forward two years later and suddenly they are in conflict again.  What changed? Joe Biden.

The DPRK is a proxy province of China, and Beijing leverages their control within North Korea to achieve strategic geopolitical objectives.  All other presidents before Donald Trump played an international game of pretending not to know China controls North Korea.  Chairman Kim is a hostage to the influence of Chairman Xi.  Kim walks a very tenuous tightrope with Xi’s regime constantly over his shoulder and almost certainly in control of the DPRK military.

When you understand this reality, you understand the ridiculous nature of the talking point about North Korea “working toward” nuclear weapons.  North Korea has nuclear weapons, because the DPRK nuclear weapons are Chinese.  An ICBM does not get fired from North Korea without Beijing giving the order.  President Trump understood this dynamic and worked to remove the pressure point from Chairman Kim.  By confronting China (economically and geopolitically), Trump provided the peace for both Koreas.

Chairman Xi Jinping knew that President Trump was working to remove his influence over Chairman Kim.  However, facing toward the rest of the world Chairman Xi could never do anything publicly to counteract this situation because it is part of the panda mask strategy for China to deny having that influence.  President Trump leveraged China’s denials of influence against Beijing by forming a direct relationship with Chairman Kim.

As the game was astutely played by Trump, if China has no influence, then China should welcome peace between the ROK and DPRK.  Trump flipped the pretending dynamic and forced Beijing to pretend they had no control.  It was amazing to watch how Trump pulled that off, quite remarkable.

North Korea is a proxy province of China in the southeast Asian region the same way Ukraine is a proxy province of the United States in western Europe.

When North Korea fires an ICBM, it’s really China firing a warning shot against the U.S. in Southeast Asia.  The U.S. under the Biden administration returns to the era of pretending and pretends publicly not to know this…. because the Biden administration, and previous UniParty administrations’, are enmeshed with the Chinese government.

The individual wealth of U.S. politicians is directly tied to Chinese business interests.  China isn’t stupid and maintains this financial dependency, where U.S. politicians make money from Chinese ventures, in order to extend Beijing’s influence and control over larger global initiatives.

If Americans knew that U.S. politicians were purchased by China, more people would start asking questions about this illusion of conflict between China and the USA.

WASHINGTON – North Korea’s use of a nuclear weapon “will” result in the end of Kim Jong Un’s regime, the United States and South Korea warned in a joint statement from the defense leaders of the allied nations.

Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Thursday, and they released a joint communique following the meeting. Their meeting came hours after the North conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test, in addition to a couple of other missile tests. The day prior, the North Korean military launched roughly two dozen missiles in an unprecedented barrage.

“The secretary and minister strongly condemned the DPRK’s escalatory activities and violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, including ballistic missile test launches, multiple rocket launches, and firing of coastal artillery and called upon the international community to hold the DPRK responsible for its actions,” the communique said. “Both sides also expressed concern that the DPRK’s ongoing efforts to develop nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, as well as its escalatory rhetoric regarding the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and its proliferation activities.”

The two leaders decided to extend the joint military exercises dubbed Operation Vigilant Storm to “further bolster our readiness and interoperability,” Austin explained. He also called the missile tests “destabilizing to the region” and called on Pyongyang to “cease that type of activity and to begin to engage in serious dialogue.” (read more)

What a difference less than two years makes….

Under President Donald Trump there were direct talks and peace….

Under Joe Biden there is regional conflict and talk of nuclear war….

Tell Vlad I’ll Have more Flexibility after the Election


Posted Nov 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

“This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.” – President Barack Obama

This damning and impeachable offense has been forgotten. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev nominated Vladamir Putin as prime minister, but the two men worked jointly to head Russia. Barack Obama was running for his second term in 2012 and met with Medvedev at the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea. After putting on a show for reporters, Obama was caught on a hot mic telling Medvedev he would have “more flexibility” for a quid pro quo deal regarding missile defenses. This is treason and an impeachable offense.

Everyone accused Trump of “Russian collusion” and working with Russia to rig the election. The public has forgotten that there is video evidence of former President Obama, who was working with then-Vice President Joe Biden, engaging in illegal activities and asking Medvedev to relay to Putin that he would be able to aid Russia once re-elected. “I understand. I transmit this (inaudible) to Vladimir.”

A sitting president admitted he would no longer be required to answer to the people after securing his final election. So while Biden acts tough on Russia, this is a small glimpse of what goes on behind the scenes.

Eurozone Inflation Reaches New High – Recession Incoming

Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Nov 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation in the Eurozone hit a new record in October, according to Eurostat who reported a 10.7% rise. That marks an increase from September’s 9.9% posting and an all-time high since Eurostat began compiling Eurozone data in 1997. The European Central Bank (ECB) attempted to curb inflations with another 75 bps hike last week. The ECB knows that inflation is here to stay. They recently changed their annual inflation target for next year to 5.8% compared to the 3.6% they were predicting three months ago. They can’t release the actual figures without causing a panic.

Economic growth “slowed significantly in the third quarter of the year and we expect a further weakening in the remainder of this year and beginning of next year,” ECB head Christine Lagarde warned. Inflation is hitting some countries harder than others. Estonia (22.4%), Latvia (21.8%), and Lithuania (22%) all experienced nearly double the average inflation rate this October.

The downturn will not be equal across the Eurozone. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, is warning that half of the 19 countries in the bloc will fall into a recession. “Europe is affected more severely by the increase of energy prices. The heat on European economies is such that we actually expect half of the countries in the eurozone to experience at least two quarters of negative growth. In other words, a recession,” she said, without naming the countries,” Georgieva warned. She further stated that the IMF’s pre-pandemic projections compared to current projections differ by a loss of half a trillion euros.

“I am not going to sugar-coat it: 2023 will be tougher than 2022. Next winter for Europe may be even harsher than this winter,” she declared. “Why? Because European policymakers acted very swiftly to fill gas storage. If conditions remain as they are with Russia not providing gas to Europe, how is this gas storage going to be filled next year?”

Another question comes to light – can Europe remain untied amid a serious recession? The ECB will use the same strategy in an attempt to fix the broken system for the entirety of the Eurozone instead of looking at each individual economy. Let’s not forget that deeply indebted countries will only face higher costs that they likely will not be able to repay. The ECB dug its grave in 2014, and they do not have the tools to handle the current crisis. It is easy for Europe to appear as a united front when there is peace and prosperity. The real test will come when everything crashes down, and fairness goes out the window.

This is it! Last chance for PEACE before Putin launches massive Winter offensive | Redacted Live

Redacted News Published originally on Rumble on October 31, 2022

This weekend Russia called on the U.S. to come to the table for peace talks. At the same time the U.S. is sending a 15th round of weapons to Ukraine. A new report from Finland shows that many of these weapons are winding up in the hands of known criminals.