Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Oct 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi Martin. I see that you have reported a lot about the coming global cooling. Here in Scandinavia, we had a warm and dry summer, the warmest and dryest in about 250 years. Is there an opposite reaction to the global cooling here in Scandinavia?
ANSWER: No. What is happening is clearly climate change. The big question remains are we talking about a pole shift or simply a collapse in the cycles to a minimum? Areas that are traditionally cold are getting warming and vice versa. I was in Germany in Bavaria and it was hot. In fact, that area typically does not get hot so the buildings, including hotels, do not even have air conditioning. Off in Ukraine, which is notorious for a hot summer in Kiev, was dramatically cooler. Even here in the USA, the north was bitterly hot and here in the Tampa area in Florida, we NEVER had a single day that reached 100F (37.7778c). I also previously reported how girls were wearing bikinis in Siberia for the first time.
The weather patterns are flipping. This idea that there is Global Warming for the entire planet as a whole is just nonsense. It is preventing real research into what is going on and are we in the early stages of a pole shift, which is overdue. The problem is that such events take place every 720,000 years or so (see Maya Report). Consequently, nobody knows for sure. There is concern that what we are facing is a pole shift given what is normally warm is cold and vice versa. Those in geology know the cycles of the Earth. They are at odds with those claiming Global Warming is being caused by women driving the kids to soccer practice.
The forecasts were that New York City would be under water by 2000. Then they moved the target to 2020. Now the IPPC moved it again to 2050. The forecasts about nuclear war have also been proven incorrect. The research is really the worst I have ever seen.
The relevance of all this to markets is the backdrop to the commodity cycle.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
RE-Posted Oct 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
An independent audit of the key temperature dataset that is being used by climate models has exposed more than 70 problems with the data which render it “unfit for global studies.” Problems include zero degree temperatures in the Caribbean, 82 degree C temperatures in Colombia and ship-based recordings taken 100km inland. The audit has concluded that the studies are deliberately exaggerating temperatures to support a theory of global warming utilizing global averages that are far less certain than what is being forecast.
The audit has revealed that “that climate models have been tuned to match incorrect data, which would render incorrect their predictions of future temperatures and estimates of the human influence of temperatures.” Furthermore, the Paris Climate Agreement adopted 1850-1899 averages as “indicative” of pre-industrial temperatures is “fatally flawed.” The entire Paris Climate Agreement has an agenda to eliminate effectively the advancement of society and attempt to reset the clock to the pre-Industrial Revolution. This entire theory that before the Industrial Revolution, our planet’s atmosphere was somehow pristine and uncontaminated by human-made pollutants has been also proven to be completely bogus. Bubbles trapped in Greenland’s ice has revealed that we began emitting greenhouse gases at least 2,000 years ago. The Romans even constructed the first aqueduct was built in 312 BC because there was a serious problem with water pollution. Seneca (c 4BC-65AD), the adviser to Nero, wrote in 61AD: “No sooner had I left behind the oppressive atmosphere of the city [Rome] and that reek of smoking cookers which pour out, along with clouds of ashes, all the poisonous fumes they’ve accumulated in their interiors whenever they’re started up, than I noticed the change in my condition.”
This new audit argues even the most simple basic quality checks had not been done on the HadCRUT4 data which is managed by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The audit exposed that estimates were made of the uncertainties arising from thermometer accuracy, homogenization, sampling grid boxes with a finite number of measurements available, large-scale biases such as urbanization and estimation of regional averages with non-complete global measurement coverage.
The audit has exposed the dishonesty in this entire scheme and it appears to be directed at the goal of reducing the population. Anomalies it has identified include at St Kitts in the Caribbean, the average temperature for December 1981 was zero degrees, normally it’s 26C. For three months in 1978, one place in Colombia reported an 82 degrees Celsius average – hotter than the hottest day on Earth. Then in Romania, one September the average temperature was reported as minus 46°C, which has never happened. The data showed that supposedly ships would report ocean temperatures from places up to 100km inland. The paper also points out that the most serious flaws identified was the shortage of data. For the first two years, from 1850 onwards, the only land-based reporting station in the Southern Hemisphere was in Indonesia. Then there were ship observations at the time but Australian records had not started until 1855 in Melbourne, behind Auckland which started in 1853. This data appears to have been just made up.
According to the HadCRUT4 calculation of coverage, it was almost 1950 before there was data from even half of the Southern Hemisphere was available. Yet they claim global warming has taken hold for 100 years prior. Then the Paris Climate Agreement takes the HadCRUT4 average from 1850 to 1899 as an “indicative” temperature or pre-Industrial Revolution. There is absolutely no possible way the data set being used to support all this Global Warming is even valid for any forecast.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Oct 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
In the Netherlands, the high court has now ordered the Dutch Government to cut greenhouse gases by 25% before end 2020. The court called it a Violation of the duty of care pursuant to articles 2 and 8 ECHR. The state must now further reduce greenhouse gases. Then we have the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that now says coal-fired electricity must end by 2050 if we are to limit global warming rises to 1.5C. They have NEVER heard of cycles and they simply project whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion. They never take nature into account and ignore everything else in the entire world not to mention volcanoes.
Rather than actually outlaw anything, the governments prefer to PUNISH people, which is far more profitable, by raising taxes dramatically. Now a Harvard study shows that large-scale Wind Farms also raise the temperature.
The way you do research is you test EVERY connection – you do not start with a presumption and then go off and try to prove something. On top of that, there are cycles to absolutely everything. There is nothing void of a cyclical nature.
Indeed, the 20th century will be remembered for four scientific revolutions–Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Chaos and Fractal Geometry. The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe. The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.
Lorenz also discovered in 1969, that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term Butterfly Effect in 1969 regarding this fascinating discovery. Very tiny changes in what might appear to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system creating a substantially different outcome. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”
Chaos theory was thus born. The Butterfly Effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions whereby a very small change at one place in a nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state. The effect derives its name from the theoretical example of a hurricane’s formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before. Lorenz’s early insights marked the beginning of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics but virtually every branch of science–biological, physical and social. In meteorology, these discoveries have led some to presume that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, such assumptions ignore the duality structure and the true importance of the Strange Attractor.
Lorenz demonstrated the profound realization that may be far more important than Einstein’s Relativity or even the discovery of Quantum Mechanics is matched only by Fractal Geometry. Lorenz demonstrated that the very idea of a deterministic system with formal predictability limitations does not actually exist; in other words, the Cartesian universe. I believe that Lorenz’s discoveries have overshadowed both relativity and quantum mechanics for they have truly opened the door to the Grand Unified Theory or the Theory of Everything if someone is willing to take that first step through the door.
Cyclical Analysis is the key to understanding the universe for it is the very essence of how all energy moves. It is the wave in light, but it is the attempt to predict where the particle will appear in the wave formation. If we look at the atomic structure it is the same design structure we see at the planetary level. The structural design and integrity are the same on all levels. In other words, it is fractal in composition. The same pattern repeated over and over again.
It is really pathetic how these charlatans ignore science on every level to produce a forecast that only puts money in their pockets. NOBDOY will fund anything to the contrary because governments are not interested unless it puts money in their pockets.
Unfortunately the predictions of continued strengthening have proved accurate. Hurricane Michael now holds sustained winds over 130 MPH with additional strengthening likely prior to landfall later today. This makes Michael a Category-4 hurricane; the strongest to hit the Florida panhandle in history. It looks like Panama City Beach is in the bulls-eye.
[National Hurricane Center] At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning.
The center of Michael’s eye is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. (read more)
As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes. I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.
But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value. Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.
A category-4 storm can and will erase structures, buildings and landscape. This storm is very similar to Hurricane Charley which impacted the SW coast of Florida in 2004. The coastal topography will likely change in the 60 mile wide area of immediate impact.
Total infrastructure failure should be anticipated and it will take weeks for restoration. The coastal communities are the most vulnerable; however, the inland impact of the storm will continue unimpeded until the eye-wall crosses onto land.
That means communities inland for 50 miles will likely see consistent 100+ MPH winds for several hours. That scale of sustained wind energy will snap power poles and reinforced concrete.
As the backside of the storm then reverses the energy direction, any already compromised structures will not withstand the additional pressure. In many cases the backside of the storm is worse than the front. If you are inland, prepare yourself for a long duration of extensive wind damage followed by an extended power outage.
For those who are in the path of the storm, there comes a time when all options are removed and you enter the “Hunkering Down” phase. You’re just about there now. Fortunately, just like Charley, this particular hurricane will move fast and that might mitigate some of the coastal storm surge (only one part of one tidal cycle). However, in totality from impact through recovery this is going to be a long-duration event.
When the sustained winds reach around 45mph today the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power. This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild. It is almost a guarantee you will not lose power due to damage from the storm but rather because of proactive measures from your power company. Do not expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region. The sounds are scary. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness. Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks. Trees will bend and break; the sounds are dramatic.
There’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget. It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar. It is very unique sound in depth and weight. Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight. Stay clear of windows and doors, and within an interior room of the house or apartment if possible. That scary roar sounds like it won’t ever quit…. it will… eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.
A hurricane wind is a constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms. Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts, builds and stays; sometimes for hours. Relentless, it just won’t let up. And then, depending on Michael’s irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, it will stop. Judging by the forward speed the hurricane force wind will likely last around 2 hours before it stops.
Then silence. No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.
Nature goes mute. It’s weird.
We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.
Due to the speed of the storm there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process even before nightfall today. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.
But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Most cell phone services will likely be knocked out. Recovery teams will begin a street-by-street review; everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.
Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.
It will all be cattywampus.
Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.
Stay away from power-lines.
Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours. Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and fuel trucks.
Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months. Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system. When that raging Michael takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.
It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.
Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.
Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs. Like I said, everything is cattywampus. Your brain-memory will need to reboot and rewire. In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention. Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before. It ain’t normalville now.
Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too. In the aftermath, there’s no class structure. Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess. Everyone is equally a mess.
The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.
You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together. If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane. Git-r-done lives there.
Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood. Figure out who’s got chainsaws, who knows how to correctly use them, and set about safely clearing the road. If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.
Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process. Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it. Those same front-end loaders will also be removing feet of sand from coastal roads. Don’t go sightseeing… stay in your neighborhood.
For the first 36-48 hours, please try to stay close to home, in your neighborhood. Another reason to stay close to home is the sketchy people who can sometimes surface, looters etc. Staying close to home and having contact with your neighbors is just reasonable and safer.
Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok. There are going to be roofing nails everywhere, and you will likely get multiple flat tires in the weeks after the hurricane.
After this storm half of the people living near PCB are going to fit into two categories, two types of people: (1) those with a new roof; or (2) those with a blue roof (tarp).
Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk. You will be surrounded by jerks…. elevate yourself. If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk. Keep your wits about you and stay calm.
Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you are on the road and there’s a convoy of utility trucks on the road, pull over. Treat power trucks and tanker trucks like ambulances and emergency vehicles. Pull over, give them a clear road and let them pass.
When everyone gets to work, if you see a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get unnecessarily familiar, a simple: “thank you for your help” will suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.
Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. Some will be staging at evacuation shelters, likely schools and such. The need to shelter people and recovery crews might also delay the re-opening of schools.
Once you eventually start getting power back, if you see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”. If you can pay their tab, do it. If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.
Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Fuel is the lifeblood of recovery. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.
Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit. Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.
Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
Pray together and be strong together. It might sound goofy to some, but don’t be bashful about being openly thankful in prayer.
It will be ok.
It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.
√Charley (Michael will be like this one)
Keep a good thought. Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.
It’ll be OK. Promise.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
I want to thank everyone for sending in emails of concern with regard to Hurricane Michael. It is not likely to hit our area. However, the last bad hurricane to hit Tampa was in 1921 which was a Category 4 with 140 mph winds. It was an unusual storm like Michael which began in the Carribean during mid-October rather than in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa and normal. The storms that start in the Atlantic typically will not impact the West Coast. The storms that are most dangerous to this area are those that begin in the Carribean like Michael.
1921 TAMPA Category 4
The previous major hurricane was September 23–25, 1848 Category 4, which also formed in the Gulf of Mexico. There was also a lessor one in 1946 which was a Category 2, which also formed in the Gulf. The worst to hit the West Coast was Hurricane Charley in 2004 which hit as a Category 4. This one was an Atlantic storm which entered the Gulf and then turned right coming up the West Coast. The computer projections show a major one due in Tampa of a Category 4 to 5 probably in 2042-2043. That does not mean we will not see others of lesser intensity between 2018 and 2042/43.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I love when you educate us about the weather, especially the cycles. the NAPOLEON story killed me !!! I’m a french and believe me, nobody talked in school about the weather cycles when he tried to fight Russia and lost everything. I read 3 times your chart which plots the temperatures and the cycle initiated by the volcano a few years ago. you are enough smart to guess that French teachers NEVER talk this story under this angle of cooling temperatures…
REPLY: When you correlate everything you see the patterns. Sure, at Waterloo, the French used CANNONS while the British used CANISTERS. On the day of the battle, it rained a lot. The ground was very muddy, soft and wet mud. In that weather and ground conditions, cannons were not as effective. It was more than just the weapons. In those weather conditions, Napoleon delayed and that cost him the battle. But had the weather been dry, things may have been different. The cold clearly beat Napoleon on his attempted invasion of Russia.
There is also the Human Excitability Study where war was correlated to sunspot activity. The sunspot cycle is roughly every eleven years. However, this time it’s different. The sun is headed for a very rare, super-cooling period that threatens to topple civilization itself as it has throughout history roughly following a 300-year cycle.
For most of its history, science believed the sun’s output was constant. They finally realized that a thermal dynamic cycle beats like your heart so the sun could not exist if it was a steady outflow of energy. One degree less and it would blow itself out. Hence, it is cyclical rising and falling in intensity.
The eleven-year cycle in sunspots itself builds in intensity like the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) reaching “grand maxima” and “grand minima” over the course of 300 years. The last grand maximum peaked circa 1958, after which the sun has been steadily quieting down. Today, the drop in activity is at its steepest in 9,300 years, which is being ignored by the Global Warming propaganda.
The last Maunder Minimum, during which the sun languished for seventy years, took place from 1645 to 1715 when the sun’s brightness declined and the number of sunspots collapsed to almost zero. We are seeing almost zero so far in 2018.
Alexander Leonidovich Tchijevsky (1897-1964) did a study on sunspot and human activity. He found that humans responded even creating wars with the swings in sunspot activity. He may be most notable for his use of historical research (historiometry) techniques to link the 11-year solar cycle, Earth’s climate and the mass activity of peoples. Just after World War I, Tchijevsky published a book on cycle theory. Perhaps the title was not destined to make the book a smash hit, but it might take a big breath away before you finish reading the last word. The title was: “Investigation of the Relationship Between the Sunspot Activity and the Course of the Universal Historical Process from the V Century B.C. to the Present Day.”
The title is a bit of a long-winded oddity suggesting that human nature becomes more excited during the increased periods of sunspot activity. Whether or not Tchijevsky proved his theory that we are all driven by sunspots, much in the same manner as the moon drives the tides of the seas is another subject which I am not too certain about. Tchijevsky’s work is an interesting collection of knowledge that does illustrate a pattern within human activity.
Tchijevsky did prove that man became more excited every 11 years which did correspond to the know 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. He gathered data from 72 nations from 500 B.C. to 1922. Throughout the 2,422 years, he included such factors of human excitability as war, riots, revolutions, expeditions, and migrations. He took into consideration the magnitude of the event, the size of the area affected, and the number of people involved. The charts that are reproduced here give a very interesting cyclical view of man’s activity which you can call emotion or excitability.
The Tchijevsky cycle clearly indicates that every 11 year cycle period can be broken down into four distinct periods. Period #1 has a duration of three years which is marked by peace, passiveness, and general rule by minorities. Period #2 has a duration of two years in which general excitability grows from political unrest. New ideas or concepts emerge which tend to challenge the party in controL These ideas become popular answers to present day problems but there is a definite lack of a uniting force. Period #3 again has a duration of three years. Under this period the public’s voice is heard. Under a dictatorship, this has been the strongest period of mass riots and revolutions in which major problems are solved. At times, anarchy does prevail but generally democratic reforms are gained. Period #4 has a duration again of about three years. The general excitability declines, and the people go along contented in a state of apathetic moods. Peace movements usually are generated during this period. The masses prosper and go about their normal course of life awaiting the sun to set and the new light of dawn which brings the beginning of a new cycle.
Reflect for a moment about these four distinct periods. Looking at our own recent political history, we see a similarity between this cycle and our preference towards political parties. For example. we had a cycle of peace and passiveness following World War II culminating in the peak of period #3 during the Johnson term. We entered period #4 bringing in President Nixon as everyone went about their business. Gradually we entered period #1 which brought about the Watergate affair resulting in the Ford administration and period #2 which has a duration of 2 years. Jimmy Carter arrived in town ushering in period #3 which is the peak on the 11-year cycle that normally contains revolution of political unrest. This brought about period #4 when we revolted against the Inflationary policies of the Democrats by voting in President Reagan with a sense of returning back to passiveness and old standards and goals.
Who knows if these events indeed were caused by sunspot activity? Perhaps the sunspots do affect our emotions in much the same manner as the moon can move the ocean from side to side. But the fact that remains is this: a cycle does exist. You can find no century on this chart that was ever lacking such human excitability. We are indeed “only human” to capture a saying normally invoked for human error. We have all heard that history repeats itself. Perhaps it is not history that repeats so much as human error. We are not immortal. We have not lived constantly throughout time. We die and are replaced by new generations. Each generation tends to believe that they are smarter than the last, failing to accurately study the errors made by previous generations; they will make the same mistakes.
Perhaps the events might differ but the result is always the same. Just as the Crusaders charged off to the Middle East to free the holy land from pagan Arabs, as they viewed it, we charged off into Europe to set the world free from the madness of Hitler; both resulted in worldwide wars so the events may have been different but the motives, passions, and outcomes were the same.
Tchijevsky’s attempt to relate man’s excitability to sunspot activity did accomplish one thing significant. His life’s work may not have proved or disproved his sunspot theory, however, it did provide us with evidence that man’s excitability, or emotions as I prefer to call it, moves within a cyclical pattern that can be identified
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Ok, it is time to all hold hands and jump up and down a few times to set the Earth back in line. The latest is that since 1899, humans are now also causing the Earth’s axis of spin to shift about 34 feet (10.5 meters). Now, research quantifies the reasons why and finds that a third is due to melting ice and rising sea levels, particularly in Greenland—placing the blame on the doorstep of anthropogenic climate change. Another third of the wobble is due to land masses expanding upward as the glaciers retreat and lighten their load. The final portion is the fault of the slow churn of the mantle, the viscous middle layer of the planet. My solution is obvious that we are all to blame and we should begin a program of gradual suicide to save the planet. Those who discovered all this harm humans are doing should set a good example and lead the way for the rest of us to follow. Does anyone want to second that vote?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I live in Indonesia. I am amazed that the entire world is not known on your door. I understand that your model puts everything together and provides a whole new perspective. Your warning that here in the Pacific Ring of Fire we should expect a trend of increasing volcanoes and earthquakes has been incredibly accurate. Why do government not listen?
ANSWER: I am deeply sorry that so many people died this week. For those who are not aware, the Mount Soputan volcano in Indonesia erupted on Wednesday, throwing ash as high as 4,000 meters into the sky. This came just days after a major earthquake and tsunami then killed more than 1,400 people on the same island. These things correlate to the solar energy output.
Keep in mind that Solar Minimum does not mean that the sun gets colder but rather it changes. Until it’s not. As sunspots fade away, we enter solar minimum. The sun is heading toward solar minimum now and the sunspot counts are collapsing. While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar minimum, the solar activity changes form. During solar minimum, this is when the sun develops coronal holes. These are vast regions in the sun’s atmosphere where the sun’s magnetic field opens up. This then allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.
These holes throughout the solar cycle during solar minimum can last for a very long time even up to six months or more. Streams of this solar wind flowing from these coronal holes create space weather effects near Earth as they hit our magnetic field. These effects can include temporary disturbances called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to communications and navigation systems. These are the effects of solar minimum. These effects in the Earth’s upper atmosphere impacts satellites in low Earth orbit as well. However, on our computer, they also correlate to these periods of an increase in volcanoes and earthquakes.
All I can do is warn from the correlations. I am not presenting a theory as to how they are also causing perhaps geomagnetic disturbance which may go into the Earth itself cause these phenomena. I leave that for specialists to ascertain. Nevertheless, I think this has more influence than driving the kids to practice at school