Climate Change on the Horizon


QUESTION: Marty,

I’ve been looking at the Year Without a Summer on Wikipedia and read that there was a cooling trend prior to the winter-like conditions during the summer of 1816. It mentioned that it affected the northeast. Also that the reason for the cooling trend is associated with the volcanic activity prior to and including 1816 and the reduction in solar output. The article also mentions that from 1628-1626BC that there was another climate disturbance, Minoan eruption of Santorini. Looking at 1628BC to 1816AD and using 3141.592 days/cycle results in 400.13 cycles. Using 1628BC and projecting it 424 cycles puts us around 2021.42. Knowing from history how this climate disturbance affected the Northeast, is that one of the reasons why you moved from New Jersey to sunny Florida, besides the hunt for taxes in NJ?

ANSWER: Yes, Add the 300 year cycle in the energy output of the sun and we see that we are headed into a cold period. This should also result in a commodity cycle boom going in the next 8.6 year wave into 2024.

Climate Change Scientists Backtracking On New Data At Last


The headline in the London Times: “We were wrong — worst effects of climate change can be avoided, say experts Scientists admit that world is warming more slowly than predicted.” The analysis of Global Warming has been the one of the greatest absurd propositions of modern times. With a tiny fraction of data on climate from 1850 forward, the argument that man has created global warming is as absurd as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Index for one month and concluding that it only rises.   There has been a climate cycle to the arctic that has been reported all along. There was a warming period in 1939 and again in 1952 reported in newspapers of how Greenland was melting. They there have been periods of expansion of ice as we have see this past year. The bottom line – it’s just a cycle and we lack the ability to alter the climate of the earth. Pollution is a separate and distinct issue. Creating smog or polluting a lake is certainly within our capacity. But changing the climate of the earth is far removed from the ability of humankind. Even nuclear bombs and accidents do not alter the climate.

Global Warming & Storms


While some of the news coverage was interjecting global warming as the cause of the storm, in fact it tends to work in the opposite direction. This has been a sharply declining period of temperature. I wrote about how this was the year without an Arctic Summer.  This has been the coldest summer in Europe and even in the States on the East Coast during August to early September. I went to visit family in August and had to buy a coat in New Jersey. In Australia there has been the coldest night on record in New South Wales. The warm water colliding with cooler air tends to make for bigger storms.

One of the major news stations was attributing Miami sinking into the water to Global Warming claiming this was PROOF of rising sea levels.  Pictured here is Wildwood New Jersey which was famous in the 60s with Bobby Rydell’s song. I use to go there as a kid. The piers were once upon a time actually in the water. You could go on a pier and fish.

The beach has risen so much it is well beyond the piers today. Is this PROOF that sea levels are falling? No! So the fact that Miami is sinking is by NO MEANS PROOF of Global Warming. The sea coast rises and falls with the storms, which change the under water topography offshore. Ever since Sandy hitting New Jersey, there are parts of Long Beach Island that now flood in a rain storm.

It is NOT Global Warming that is to blame for Miami sinking. It is the simple fact that the beaches always change. I have lived on the beach for probably 30 years. It is like watching a movie. It is constantly changing. The sand rises and falls. It does not remain unchanged. Welcome to mother nature.

News & Exaggerating The Storm Coverage


Armstrong Economics Blog Nature

Re-Posted Sep 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The devastation in the Florida Keys and in the Caribbean Islands has one thing in common. Those houses constructed in wood frames cannot withstand even a Category 3 storm no less a Category 5. To understand the disaster, we have to face the fact that construction standards are critical. Wood houses should be prohibited and all modern construction must be hurricane resistant.

The hype over Irma spun by the various news stations was just so over the top and poses a serious threat to society. Personally, I had every family member and cousins I rarely spoke to, begging me to get out of Florida. Everyone said I would die. The models I ran to decide where to locate in Florida worked well. My home never even lost power and one small old tree fell over in the front yard. That was the extent of the damage and living on the beach did not reflect the danger the TV portrayed since my place was all constructed in concrete – not wood.

Comparing those structures in the Caribbean and Key West to the block and concrete buildings in Florida is comparing apples and oranges. Some have shown trailer parks in Key Largo destroyed and then in the same breath say the “rich” lived in houses with little damage because modern houses more recently constructed must be in block and concrete. Those in trailer parks are always more vulnerable and some of those mobile homes are extremely expensive. This is true in the mid-West in tornado ally as well.

Nevertheless, the real issue is that their forecasting models were all wrong on the direction. It appears that the European model (which includes more data & takes longer to run) was doing a better job, but it too missed the turn inland. Then there were the dire forecasts that we would see a giant “surge” of a wall of water 15 to 20 feet high they painted would be like a tsunami. That too never materialized. A tsunami is a wave of energy pushing through the water. The storm surge they pictured was water simply rushing back in pushed away by wind. This type of “surge” may cause some flooding, but it lacks the energy of a tsunami. Depending upon the topography both under the water and the land, then the storm “surge” of just 3 feet (1 meter) can drown people. But that is totally different from a tsunami. An earthquake can create a tsunami as was the case with the Tokyo 1923 earthquake shown in the newspaper account above.

This modern version of what people are calling fake news is effectively trying to manipulate the public into thinking something is so horrific they cannot afford to change the station. The danger is that nobody will listen to them the next time. Irma has shown that fake news is by no means limited to just politics. They look for the hardest hit areas and then create a picture this is the entire state.

The models I ran that were cyclical based and did a far better job. They also showed it would hit Cuba when they forecast it would miss the island. Power was not lost at my home. Our data provider is in Boca Raton and they are still down. The East Coast got the worst of it yet the storm still came up on the West Coast and then turned inland.

Our models picked our area by Tampa as the best spot. This was the 32nd Category 5 storm so 2017 should have been the big one. All of that was accomplished by cyclical models and Socrates. So again I think it did a far better job than their modeling atmosphere. Perhaps it is like markets. You cannot really forecast any market if that is all you look at. It is the combination of all markets at all times.

The Flip Side of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Climate Change!


Ever since the 80’s we have heard how bad the use of fossil, carbon based, fuels is and how we must absolutely stop using them.  The reason that we are told is that burning fossil fuels creates Carbon Dioxide (CO2) which is causing the planet to over heat.  Although there is a small element of truth to that thought it has been greatly exaggerated and if one looks at the subject with an open mind one sees that the amount of climate change possible by increasing levels of Carbon Dioxide is only about 1/3 of the total observed historical changes in climate.   In other words nature is the primary reason for climate change. Further, its unlikely that more than another .5 degrees Celsius will be observed from increases in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Previous posts here show why this is true if one cares to read them.

This post is to show the other side of the Carbon Dioxide issue which is that Carbon Dioxide is not the only thing created by burning fossil fuels. Actually three things are produced, energy in the form of high temperatures which can do work, Carbon Dioxide and water. There are other residues depending on the fuel used but they can be ignored as although important to consider, they are not items that can’t be controlled with proper engineering. Forgetting the heat energy (warming) produced, for now, the other two items Carbon Dioxide and Water are where this discussion leads us.

Carbon Dioxide the evil pollutant which must be stopped at all costs is the primary food for plant life and without it we could not exist. In fact increased levels of Carbon Dioxide well beyond where we are now would be very beneficial to all life on the planet as plants grow much better and faster at levels of Carbon Dioxide 3 to 4 times where we are now. So the fact is that increased levels of Carbon Dioxide are good not bad.

But no one is even discussing the third element of burning fossil fuels which is the production of large amounts of water.  From the beginnings of the industrial revolution to today Carbon Dioxide has gone from 280 ppm to about 410 ppm today or from .028% to .041% of the earths atmosphere.  That means that we have produced in the last 400 years …

736 Billion Tons of Carbon Dioxide (plant food) and

263 Billion Tons of Water

263 Billion tons of water is 63.1 Trillion gallons of water, or 57.3 cubic miles of water which is about half of the water now in Lake Erie the world 18th largest lake. Since no one would disagree that water isn’t bad, creating this much water is a good thing ….

One last thought is that 57.3 cubic miles of water has raised the earths oceans by about .026 inches or .7 mm in height representing about 1% of the observed increased level of sea levels. That may not be much but that increase is not from global warming its from the production of large amounts of water.

The point to this discussion is that we must understand all the processes that are happening since nature is very complex and no one thing controls anything on the planet.

 

Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian and British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is considered one of the most influential philosophers for science of the 20th century, and he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. The following quotes of his apply to this subject.

If we are uncritical we shall always find what we want: we shall look for, and find, confirmations, and we shall look away from, and not see, whatever might be dangerous to our pet theories.

Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.

… (S)cience is one of the very few human activities — perhaps the only one — in which errors are systematically criticized and fairly often, in time, corrected.

 

 

 

Global Warming is All Fake Nobel Laureate Says its Just a Religion


Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian and British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is considered one of the most influential philosophers for science of the 20th century, and he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. The following quotes of his apply to this subject.

If we are uncritical we shall always find what we want: we shall look for, and find, confirmations, and we shall look away from, and not see, whatever might be dangerous to our pet theories.

Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.

… (S)cience is one of the very few human activities — perhaps the only one — in which errors are systematically criticized and fairly often, in time, corrected.

Climate Change & How It Has Made Us Who We Are Today


All we ever hear is how Climate Change is caused by humans and it will destroy the world. They have been yelling that New Orleans and Miami will be UNDER WATER within the next century as rising sea levels put more than 400 US cities ‘past the point of no return’ unless we suddenly raise taxes and hand the power to government to change the climate.  In Princeton, New Jersey, the actual construction of the Harvey S. Firestone Memorial Library was set in motion at the University. Excavation begun January 2, 1946, and the building opened for use on September 7, 1949. This was where I conducted my research that produced the Economic Confidence Model.

The excavation for the underground floors of Firestone was difficult. In the spring of 1946, a group of Princeton geologists found fossils from fish of the late Triassic Age in a section of shale. The fossils, which had been buried there for 175 million years, were amazingly well-preserved and revealed new details about the prehistoric fish. This site proved one of the richest grounds for finding Triassic fish fossils in the world. The fossils were sent to museums. Clearly, most of New Jersey was under water before. The Global Warming crowd make it seem that we are responsible for everything – not nature.

An interesting book Climate Change in Prehistory: The End of the Reign of Chaosis documenting how humankind dealt with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age and climate change the Global Warming people ignore. Climate Change has affected the evolution of humankind and is responsible for spreading humanity across the globe. Our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, reveals another dimension to the argument. The origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this work which reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors. Climate Change has impacted our diet, language and the domestication of animals thereby changing our lives. Modern humanity is a product of the Climate Change. Climate Change in Prehistory brings together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies to paint the full picture.

2017 – The Year Without an Arctic Summer?


They are calling this in the Year without an Arctic Summer.  The Greenland Ice Sheet is gaining near record amounts of ice this year. Very little melting has occurred this summer, which is about to start coming to an end. Europe has been unusually cool once again after last year ice wiped out crops all the way down into Spain creating shortages of vegetables. With the sun activity declining and the North Pole reversing direction in 2000 heading toward Europe rather than Canada, things are not exactly supporting the Global Warming crowd. Since 1860, the magnetic pole shift has more than doubled every 50 years. That is rather significant. In geological terms, this is extremely rapid and could be the prelude to a pole shift nobody understands.

Still, during the past 150 years, the pole shift has been in the same direction. The most astonishing fact is that since 2000, the magnetic North Pole has shifted nearly half of the total distance of the past 50 years! In other words, the pole shift has apparently picked up speed so much so that they have had to re-calibrate airports and their GPS signals so planes can still find them. Europe is getting colder. Friends in Scotland have relayed that had a spectacular summer this year – it lasted a whole two days! The earth is changing rapidly. We are overdue for a major pole shift (see Maya Report). The poles flip on the Sun every 11 years. We have no idea what the net result will be on Earth since the last flip was well before recorded history.

Diesel Cars in Europe Received Tax Breaks to Compete Against Japan


COMMENT:  Just to give you the heads up on diesels (Source my brother in the Industry). During the 70’s when Japanese were dominating car imports in Europe. France came up with the idea of giving preferential treatment to diesel cars as the French Car Industry was ahead of the Japanese in diesel engines. (the pollution of Tokyo has meant that diesels were dismissed for cars). The fuel efficiency of diesels was well known as was the particulate problem and the need for better maintenance to maintain emissions. France lowered the tax on diesel fuel to make French cars attractive and competitive. France then lobbied the EU to keep the emissions tests stationary in the lab rather than on the road to hide the particulate problem. This has resulted effectually in much better small diesels but still the particulate problem remains. This could have been helped in cities by moving to LPG for buses and taxis but that never happened presumable for safety reasons. BTW if everyone plugs in a car overnight to charge up what is now provided by liquid fuel we need a seriously new and different electricity system.

DB

REPLY: Your are correct. There has been a significant tax advantage to a diesel in Europe which was to compete against the Japanese.

German Diesel Summit Moved for Security Reasons


The German Diesel Summit was moved because of protests in the Federal Ministry of the Interior from the Ministry of Transport for security reasons. Greenpeace’s environmental activists were present with a huge banner that read: “Welcome to Fort NOx” they put on the roof of the building. The Summit was moved effective to a backroom setup with closed doors. What has come out is that diesel causes more nitrogen oxides than gasoline, yet the emission of the carbon dioxide is significantly lower. There is clearly a major threat to the German auto industry. A CDU party politician appeared on the TV at ZDF shortly before the Berlin Diesel Summit stating that the manufacturers had to pay for their vehicles to meet the stipulated pollutant limit values. Of course, that is a court order rather than political will. But the problem is much more comprehensive. The meeting of politics and corporations is trying to save the diesel only because diesel produces less CO2. Of course, if the whole Global Warming argument is wrong and CO2 does not alter the climate whereas diesel buses use to make the air unbreathable in London, we have a lot of fake research leading to even more economic decision making.