Greenland Bans Oil and Gas Exploration

Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jan 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

In July 2021, Greenland ceased issuing licenses for oil and gas exploration. Now, Greenland has announced that the ban will be permanent. The government cited climate change as their main concern, and Greenpeace cheered their decision. The announcement would leave one to believe that Greenland actually had a good amount of oil reserves. Major oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and Eni have been scouring Greenland since the 1970s for oil unsuccessfully.

Some may recall that in April 2020, former President Trump actually attempted to buy the sovereign territory, but not for natural resources. The Trump Administration wanted Greenland as a strategic military location to repel China and Russia from dominating the Arctic region. This angered Danish authorities and the US handed over $12.1 million for “sustainable economic development,” meaning they needed to secure a consulate on the world’s largest island.

Four-fifths of Greenland (836,000 square miles) is covered by the only permanent ice sheet outside of Antarctica. Sure, there are likely oil and mineral recourses beneath the ice, but after 50 years of exploration, Greenland’s announcement to ban further exploration seems lackluster.

“The future does not lie in oil. The future belongs to renewable energy, and in that respect, we have much more to gain,” a spokesman noted. Keyword: future! There is no current sustainable energy to replace fossil fuels at this point in history. That technology does not exist on a wide enough scale to power the world. So again, this announcement sounds like another nation bowing to the Build Back Better agenda to show the world that they are adhering.

An Example of Field to Fork Inflation

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 30, 2021 | Sundance | 299 Comments

Here’s a solid example of what “field to fork” inflation is all about.   Two images shared today point out how the farmland inflation originates, and how the farmland inflation surfaces in your life.

The first image (pictured right) is a current price reference point for crop fertilizer [Source] from the perspective of the farmer preparing.

To go into the deep weeds behind what is causing this massive jump in price, you can review THIS ARTICLE.

[…] “Compared to September 2020 prices, ammonia has increased over 210%, liquid nitrogen has increased over 159%, urea is up 155%, and MAP has increased 125%, while DAP is up over 100% and potash has risen above 134%.”

Those fertilizer component products are used for corn, wheat and soybeans crops.

[…] “Corn represents about 49% of the share of U.S. nutrient use, while wheat accounts for about 11% and soybeans account for 10%. Cumulatively, those three crops account for about 70% of U.S. fertilizer consumption.” {link}

Now, you might say those crops do not seem like they are that important.  However, keep in mind that Corn, Wheat and Soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.

Worse yet, both grain and protein are the primary ingredients in pet foods; so pet food producers end up collecting even more price increases in their manufacturing. Have you noticed a shortage of pet food on your shopping trips?

When fertilizer goes up that high in price, the end cost of that harvest goes up in price, along with the end price of everything the harvest is used for.

So now we get to the point in the supply chain where these protein price increases show up to the average consumer.

This restaurant menu was shared with CTH today and reflects how the owners of this specific dining establishment are having to cope with the price of chicken from their wholesale supplier.  This example shows just how rapidly -and unpredictably- the price increases are hitting the restaurant industry.

Yes, chicken wings are now CURRENTLY falling under “market price.”

This is the fork side of “field to fork” inflation, and the chicken wing price represents the outcome of a total supply chain under extreme inflationary pressure.

Keep in mind, what the farmer was sharing on Facebook, about the price of fertilizer and weed killer, are prices for the ‘next’ harvest, not the one he/she has already completed.   The origin of the next harvest starts with components at prices 100 to 150 percent higher than the previous harvest.

Grain silos already loaded are carrying higher prices for the next several months, as the product flows through the supply chain and is used in the food production and feed of current ancillary users (manufacturers and protein providers).  However, those prices are on the previous cost of production.  When those grain silos need to be refilled, the next inbound harvest will have even higher costs.

When the current field inflation cumulates through the supply chain, the outcome will carry a price increase even higher than current.

I’ll bet there are a lot of restaurants visiting print shops to order new menus right now.  By the time we get to Superbowl Sunday, the price of ¹chicken wings is going to bring sticker shock to those who have not prepared.

Last point….  If you’ve been wondering why there’s such a massive push from the communists toward “plant-based proteins“, and even meat grown in laboratories, this outcome is part of the reason.  The climate change agenda -writ large- makes the traditional food supply skyrocket in price to unsustainable levels.  The professional leftists have been using the Overton window to nudge people into accepting an entirely new diet.

[Same group pushing ‘tiny houses‘]

#Let’s Go Brandon.


[NOTE: ¹More chicken wings are purchased in the days leading up to the Superbowl than any other time of year.]

Auto Manufacturers Compete to Create EVs

Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Posted Dec 27, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

As gas prices soar, the plan to switch to electric vehicles (EVs) seems more appealing to the average consumer. The US will now require auto manufacturers to meet a fleetwide average of 55 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2026, which is up from the 43 mpg standard set by Trump. The current standard for 2021 models is 40 mpg.

The Environmental Protection Agency is saying that moving to EVs can save owners between $210 and $420 billion through 2050, and owners will save an average of $1,000 per year.

A lobbying group is calling the Alliance for Automotive Innovation is calling for federal support to meet the new requirement, stating that the industry will not be able to meet the criteria without government funds. The infrastructure bill passed earlier in the year will allow more funding for public charging stations.

Others in the industry are claiming that automakers must conform to EVs to stay competitive. Tesla’s growth has been widely praised. GM is releasing two new electric cars and will begin producing the GMC Hummer EV next fall. BMW plans to unveil an all-electric M badge car. Jaguar Land Rover noted it would test a hydrogen fuel-cell prototype. Mercedes plans to manufacture ten new models of EVs by the end of next year. Ford, Nissan, and Mazda will join in on the action too. The list goes on and on.

Electric vehicles only account for 3% to 4% of cars on the road in the US. Still, that percentage will rise in the coming years as EVs become more affordable to the average consumer and companies continue to develop the technology.

European Environmentalists Have New Plan For Cargo Ships Based on Paris Climate Agreement Compliance

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 16, 2021 | Sundance | 525 Comments

Folks, this story is not from The Onion or any version of sarcastic media.  This is very real.

To meet the compliance standards of the Paris Climate Accords and the subsequent treaty that all EU nations agreed to, they must reduce carbon emissions in freight and transit systems.  They have spent thousands of hours pouring over possible solutions and will begin the test phase next month.

Bloomberg News – At the start of next year, the Ville de Bordeaux, a 154-meter-long ship that moves aircraft components for Airbus SE, will unfurl a 500 square meter kite on journeys across the Atlantic Ocean. It will undergo six months of trials and tests before full deployment.

While the industry has come up with multiple decarbonization initiatives, it is struggling to keep pace with goals set out under the Paris Agreement on climate. There’s also pressure on shipping lines from large customers who are pressing to make their own supply chains less polluting. (read more)

Yes my friends, the extremely well educated scientists, physicists, climatologists, sustainability engineers and cross functional decarbonization problem solvers for the planetary saving climate justice agenda, have invented…. wait for it….


Sunday Talk Warning, Mohamed El-Erian Concedes His Economic Views Are Now Contingent Upon Climate Change Driving Policy

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 145 Comments

Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

It is only from the position that climate change is baked into forward economic outlooks that El-Erian can state inflation is structurally survivable, at the current level, with additional spending by federal government.

If he’s right…if congress does pass the BBB/GND at a level they are currently debating, then inflation will rise at/near current levels through Jan, Feb, March, then plateau around March/April for a few months, and then spike again -even higher- sometime around the spring 2022.

Keep in mind, in order for inflation to spike again in 2022, it will be building upon the prior massive inflationary step of 2021, because inflation is a measure of the percent change in prices year over year.

In 2021, we experienced around a 5% jump in overall CPI prices starting in the spring.  That initial inflation jump cycles through at the same time next year, and you would expect the rate of inflation to drop or stabilize once the comparison period is passed in 2022.   If the BBB bill is passed, the rate will jump again even when it cycles through the calendar.

  • Example: December 2020 bread was $3.00
  • December 2021 bread is $4.00  (25% increase over 2020)
  • June 2022 bread at $5.00 is a 20% increase over 2021.  Price difference same, but the rate of inflation is lower.


Imagine the prices in the scenario above if the rate of inflation in 2022 is the same or higher than 2021.  That’s the part people need to start thinking about now.

  • Example-2:  December 2020 Gasoline was $2.00/gal
  • December 2021 Gasoline is $3/gal (50% increase)
  • June 2022 Gasoline is $4.50/gal (50% increase), $5/gal, $5.50/gal etc


The downstream consequences of interim energy policy shifts are major increases in current energy costs.

Few people realize how much everything jumps in price simply because oil, gas and energy costs increase.  The entire process of creating stuff (raw materials), moving stuff, processing stuff (intermediate), transporting stuff, finishing stuff, shipping stuff, storing stuff, distributing stuff and selling stuff becomes a rising cumulative cost inside the supply chain.

When energy prices go up, a snowball effect starts traveling down the mountain getting bigger and bigger as it heads towards your house.

As Obama said, “Under my administration, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, but he could never actually do the structural energy change because: (1) Republicans took control of the House in January 2011; and (2) the economic blast damage would have been just too catastrophic for any attempt at re-election in 2012.

Joe Biden frees the leftists from those ideological constraints.

Everything you would normally consider to be a concern, anything that would limit the extremes of any legislative effort, has been removed. They plan to lose next year, so they have nothing to lose right now.

Joe Biden is an appointed figurehead for a background agenda driven by Obama’s Chicago Marxists and the global leftists.

The Biden far-left policy agenda is strategically a massive throw everything at the legislative process, in an effort to create major change in a short period of time.  COVID is being used as the cover story, Biden is the disposable front man, and Nancy Pelosi is the facilitating legislative cohort.

Massive inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, collapsed supply chains, empty shelves or shortages in products, increased crime, devalued dollar, diminished international influence, horrible polling, predictable political consequences, none of this matters because Biden is disposable to the agenda.

Additionally, there are no limits to the obvious lies they will tell, because no one inside the administration cares about any public impact. This current effort is to drive the agenda regardless of political damage that can only catch them, or block them, in the 2022 mid-term election.

The “Green New Deal” legislation *is* the “Build Back Better” legislation.  Once they get that bill passed, it’s mission accomplished.  This is a legacy move for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden.  This is the fundamental change part.

It appears in the interview with CBS Margaret Brennan, Mohamed El-Erian is accepting this Build Back Better legislation (or something similar) will pass the Senate and be enacted into law.   At the very least, he is accepting that ‘climate change policy’ is now fundamentally accepted by U.S. voters.  That perspective forms the baseline for him saying the climate change agenda is now baked into the U.S. economy, and inflation will have to be accepted – albeit at a debatable scale.

I hope El-Erian is wrong, because he is massively underestimating the scale of what will happen with total economic inflation as a consequence.

Factually, I think his analysis is corrupted by his associations on Wall Street.  The elites (in his circle) think We The People are not smart enough to see what can happen if this complete transformation of the U.S. energy system is changed; or as healthcare policy architect Jonathan Gruber later said publicly, “We relied upon the stupidity of the American voter” to create Obamacare, the transformation in the healthcare system.

I am cautiously optimistic they are both wrong right now, although I can also see how this COVID noise is providing them a lot of cover.


The Hoax of Biden’s Democracy Summit

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 10, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

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The #1 Fake News Network in the world, CNN, has gone after China and Russia for calling Biden’s Summit of Democracy a joke. Of course, CNN apparently does not know how to pick up a dictionary. Here in the United States, we have a republic – not a democracy. And in Europe, the whole political structure is a fraud for the people neither vote for anyone on the European Commission nor they do not vote for the head of state.

I suppose they never actually listened to the words of the Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag:

“I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands,

one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all,”

It explicitly states that the US is NOT a Democracy but a Republic. It is a joke that politicians pretend that we live in a democracy when we do not and Klaus Schwab’s 2030 agenda included the end of the right to even vote. Moreover, the press is no longer free and it is pushing its own agenda.

They refuse to investigate anything to do with COVID or the conflicts of interest elevating Gates to a world health czar who is not even a doctor any more than Schwab or the head of the WHO. The press has fully embraced the canceled culture and thinks “freedom of the press” means they get to report only what supports their agenda.

Here are the definitions of Democracy and Republic which Europe does not fit either. If CNN was honest, they would actually have to agree with the criticism of both Russia and China for the West is a Republic, and would never allow a democracy for then the people would vote on all of these spending issues instead of our pretend representatives since we are a Republic – not a Democracy.

So sorry, Biden’s Summit of Democracy is indeed a joke. Nowhere in the West do the people live in a democracy. It is all a republic and Europe does not even qualify as a republic it is closer to China and Russia than the United States. Historically, republics always die by their own hand – economic suicide which is unfolding perfectly once again. At some point, there will be a new version of Caesar who will cross the Rubicon.

It’s Looking A Lot Like Frozen Winterland

Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Dec 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The weather is following what our computer has been forecasting using historical data and correlating history to ascertain the cyclical nature of weather. The ice has now grown larger than the global warming crowd has ever predicted. This threatens Europe with a very cold winter that will further endanger food production.

The entire problem with the claimed research into climate change is that they have begun with pre-determined conclusions that the air was free of things such as lead preindustrial revolution, which the ice core samples have proven to be false. What has emerged is that the assumption that preindustrial levels of lead in the air were negligible, safe, or nonexistent is completely false. Next‐generation laser technology in climate science, in combination with detailed historical and archaeological records, has revealed a different history. The lead levels in the air have been elevated for the past 2000 years.

As long as the research begins with a pre-determined conclusion, it will always sift through the data and cherry-pick only that which supports the desired conclusion. During this Little Ice Age, glaciers advanced in mountain valleys and actually destroyed many European settlements. Paintings from the 1600s depict people ice skating on the Thames River in London like this one showing the frozen Thames in a painting by Abraham Hondius from 1677.

A Volcano & the Last Little Ice Age | Armstrong Economics

Even the canals in Amsterdam were frozen. It remained cold for nearly 200 years. There were ice fairs into the late 1600s as shown in this painting from 1683. However, the winters were brutal even into the late 1700s and early 1800s, although gradually warmer from the depths of the 1600 period.

The Post Office even issued commemorative stamps in 1976, noting that winter event. Washington and his troops suffered more in Morristown, N.J., during the Hard Winter of 1779-80. Violent snowstorms had battered the Northeast, and both Boston and New York harbors were completely frozen over. The weather made it impossible to bring supplies to the men, many of whom had no coats or even shoes. They couldn’t even eat for days at a time. The soldiers finally mutinied in early May, though an officer persuaded them to abandon their rebellion. Just as the weather had defeated Napoleon, weather nearly defeated the American Revolution.

I have warned that volcanic activity correlates with the solar minimum, which we have been heading into since 2015. In fact, this has been the sharpest decline in the energy of the sun that we know of. It has been exceptionally declining since 2015, which was the peak of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Since the ECM was constructed from economic data, it is interesting how the cyclical nature of the economy aligns with Mother Nature herself.

There have been 215 major volcanic eruptions since 10,900 BC. Two massive eruptions changed the climate – (1) Tambora in 1815 and (2) Samalas in 1257.

In 1257, a catastrophic eruption occurred at the Samalas volcano on the Indonesian island of Lombok, which was a 7, making it one of the largest volcanic eruptions in modern history. It is worth noting that the two largest eruptions in modern history both took place in Indonesia.

Samalas wiped out human habitations, including the city of Pamatan, which was the capital of a kingdom on Lombok. The eruption injected into the atmosphere was massive and it reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, causing a volcanic winter. This led to famines and crop failures in Europe and elsewhere. It is believed that this eruption became the trigger for the subsequent Little Ice Age and a centuries-long cold period during the last thousand years. The first evidence of the eruption was discovered in the ice core samples around 1257, providing strong evidence of a large volcanic eruption impacted the entire world. Finally, in 2013, scientists were able to link the historical records about Mount Samalas to these spikes in the ice cores.

By 1258, Henry III of England became very unpopular as the weather turned cold and people were starving. It was 1257 when Henry issued the first gold coin of England which is extremely rare. Taxation became a hot topic because of his expensive foreign policies and the role of his local officials in collecting taxes and debts. A coalition of his barons seized power in a coup d’état and expelled the Poitevins, the king’s favorites, from England. They instigated political reform of the royal government through a process called the Provisions of Oxford. Henry was forced to sue for peace with France in 1259, and Henry gave up his rights to his other lands in France in return for King Louis IX recognizing him as the rightful ruler of Gascony. The baronial regime collapsed but Henry was unable to reform a stable government and instability across England continued.

But this also slowed the Mogol invasion of Europe. The weather data preserved in tree rings points to a series of warm, dry summers in Europe until 1242 when temperatures dropped and rainfall increased. The local climate shifted to a wetter and colder environment which caused flooding of the formerly dry grasslands and created a marshy terrain. Those conditions would have been less than ideal for the nomadic Mongol cavalry and their encampments. The Mongols were horsemen and this reduced their mobility and pastureland, curtailing their invasion into Europe west of the Hungarian plain.

The worst possible future will be a volcanic winter occurring over the next 13 years.

Biden’s Failed Talks with China

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

In all honesty, Biden is clearly out of it, and his handlers are only interested in bringing the Great Reset to dominate the world. I believe COVID-19 was deliberately leaked into China because there were far too many sources of a “virus is coming” by December 2019.  I believe it was deliberately released in China with the intention that they thought they could force China, out of embarrassment, to join this globalist agenda. That strategy failed, and all the finger-pointing and name-calling branding this as the CCP Virus has unleashed the necessary elements for war.

In China, the Chinese box office is the largest in the world. The new movie, “The Battle at Lake Changjin,” has been the biggest film in the international movie market that has beaten everything put out by Hollywood. It is the subject that is alarming. This portrays war between the United States and China and the United States is defeated. This is very important. Just as the Democrats kept blaming Russia for interfering in the US election, that scenario resulted in 70% of Americans believing Russia was the enemy. This movie portrays America as the enemy who is putting the shoe on the other foot. That same tactic is now pointing the finger at America, and we have Americans blaming China for the virus and China blaming America for planting the virus.

Biden will NEVER allow an investigation of COVID, and he will protect Fauci at all costs. I continue to believe the release of COVID was deliberate, for all the pieces were in place, and they rolled out the Great Reset in just a couple of weeks. They have taken over the Western world, and it appears that politicians have been bribed to betray their own people.

This plot is not rational. It was hatched only in the mind of an academic who lives in a world of theory. They have actually argued that Marxism would have worked if they had America and Europe as well. This time, they are trying to transform the world in their theoretical Marxist Wonderland.

They have weakened the economies of the West, but instead of convincing China and Russia to join, they will now see their golden opportunity to defeat America and Europe. What fools these mortals be!

Diagnosis: Climate Change

Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Nov 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

For the first time in history, a doctor has diagnosed a patient with the ailment of “climate change.” A Canadian doctor from British Columbia treated a patient with asthma, diabetes, and heart failure who was struggling to breathe after wildfires in the Kootenays region. Dr. Kyle Merritt officially diagnosed the patient as suffering from “climate change.”

“If we’re not looking at the underlying cause, and we’re just treating the symptoms, we’re just gonna [sic] keep falling further and further behind,” Merritt boldly claimed. This is outright medical negligence and fraud. How exactly is someone supposed to be treated for climate change? How is it even legal for a doctor to claim such an ailment?

“She has diabetes. She has some heart failure…She lives in a trailer, no air conditioning,” Merritt said of his patient, who is in her 70s. “All of her health problems have all been worsened. And she’s really struggling to stay hydrated.” Diabetes, asthma, heart failure – these are all treatable and real conditions. Obviously, the way this patient is living is contributing to her deteriorating health. No one needs medical training to see the clear changes this patient could make to better her condition. Instead, the doctor gave her what seems to be a potentially terminal diagnosis as there is and never will be a solution to change the cyclical patterns of climate.

This doctor is yet another sheep following the herd to push forward an agenda that is anti-human rights. I expect other patients with treatable illnesses to receive this terminal diagnosis, and the climate change crowd will cheer as people die as martyrs for their cause. Revoke this quack’s medical license immediately!

Biden Considering Cutting off Heat for Michigan

Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Nov 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

President Joe Biden’s Administration is looking to terminate Enbridge Inc.’s Line 5 pipeline from Canada to Michigan. These environmental people who are really controlling the Biden Administration couldn’t be happier if the world population was reduced by 50%.

Biden shut down the Keystone Pipeline from Alberta, but what people do not realize is the environmentalists are out for blood. They are pushing to shut down pipeline #5 that supplies a large portion of Michigan homes the energy to stay warm. Line 5 supplies 65% of the propane demand of the upper portion of the state and 55% of Michigan’s statewide propane needs. Overall, line 5 transports up to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light crude oil, light synthetic crude, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are refined into propane.

These environmentalists want fossil fuels terminated now, despite the fact that renewables will never be able to power everything as is. There will not even be internet full-time. If the Democrats listen to this agenda, when people are freezing, and their elderly family members die from the lack of heat in winter, I seriously doubt that they will find welcoming support in Michigan if they shut down Pipeline #5