Obamacare ‘Explosion’ Could Come On May 22nd, Here’s Why


Tyler Durden's picture

After a stunning healthcare defeat last week, delivered at the hands of his own party no less, Trump took to twitter to predict the imminent ‘explosion’ of Obamacare.

As it turns out, that ‘explosion’ could come faster than anyone really expects as legislators and health insurers have to make several critical decisions about the 2018 plan year over the next 2 months which could seal Obamacare’s fate.

As the Atlanta Journal Constitution points out today, the Trump administration has until May 22nd to decide whether they will continue to pursue the Obama administration’s appeal to provide subsidies to insurers who participate in the federal exchanges.

Of course, any decision to remove those subsidies would likely result in yet another massive round of premium hikes and further withdrawals from the already crippled exchanges where an astounding number of counties across the country have already been cut to just 1 health insurance provider.  And, as we’ve pointed out before, higher rates = lower participation = deterioration of risk pool = higher rates….and the cycle just repeats until it eventually collapses.

As background, in 2014, House Republicans sued the Obama administration over the constitutionality of the cost-sharing reduction payments (a.k.a. “taxpayer funded healthcare subsidies”), which had not been appropriated by Congress.  Republicans won the initial lawsuit but the Obama administration subsequently appealed and now Trump’s administration can decide whether to pursue the appeal or not.

One key to insurers selling plans in the marketplace are reimbursements they receive called cost-sharing reductions. These aren’t the same as the tax credits that people receive to help pay their premiums; it is financial assistance to help low-income people pay their out-of-pocket costs, such as deductibles. The Congressional Budget Office projected those payments would add up to $7 billion this year and $10 billion in 2018.

But for insurers, there’s a question over how long that money will be delivered, due to an ongoing political and legal dispute about whether the cost-sharing money should be distributed at all.

In 2014, House Republicans sued the Obama administration over the constitutionality of the cost-sharing reduction payments, which had not been appropriated by Congress. The lawmakers won the lawsuit, and the Obama administration appealed it. Late last year, with a new administration on the other end of the suit, the House sought to pause the proceedings — with a deadline for a status update in late May.

The Trump administration and House lawmakers have to report to the judge this spring. If the Trump administration drops the appeal, it would mean the subsidies would stop being paid — a huge blow to the marketplaces and millions of people. If lawmakers wanted the payments to continue, they would have to find a way to fund them. One opportunity for that is coming up fast, the continuing resolution that must be passed by April 28. If the Trump administration continues the lawsuit, it will be in the odd position of fighting its own party.

The CBO estimates the payments would total roughly $10 billion in 2018.

As we’ve noted before, several large insurers, including UnitedHealth Group and Aetna, have already made the decision to exit Obamacare due to financial losses.  Now, Molina Healthcare is also pondering whether it would be able to continue to participate in the absence of federal subsidies.

Big insurers like UnitedHealth Group and Aetna have mostly left the individual market over the years, citing financial reasons. Several counties across the country only have one insurer offering ObamaCare plans.

Now Molina Healthcare is signaling it may downsize its presence in the market, or pull out altogether, if Congress or the administration doesn’t act to stabilize it. Molina has 1 million exchange enrollees in nine states this year.

“We need some clarity on what’s going to happen with cost-sharing reductions and understand how they’re going to apply the mandate,” said Molina CEO Dr. Mario Molina.

Asked if Molina would leave ObamaCare if the payments are stopped, the CEO said: “It would certainly play into our decision. We’ll look at this on a market-by-market basis. We could leave some. We could leave all.”

Mario Molina, chief executive of Molina Healthcare, predicted that if the cost-sharing reductions are not funded, it could result in premium increases on the order of 10 to 12 percent.

While all this uncertainty swirls, health insurers must decide — soon — whether to make rate filings to sell insurance in 2018. The deadline varies by state, but for those that have marketplaces run by the federal government, it is June 21. Filing doesn’t mean that insurers will participate; they’ll have months more to negotiate and could still drop out. But it’s the first step toward offering plans in 2018 and should provide a signal about what the marketplaces are likely to look like.

Meanwhile, it seems pretty likely that Obamacare couldn’t survive another collapse in coverage like we saw in 2017 (charts per the New York Times):

2016 healthcare insurance carriers by county:

Obamacare 2016

 

2017 healthcare insurance carriers by county:

Obamacare 2017

 

The first step is admitting you have a problem.

The Political Parties Are An Illusion Designed To “Relegate The Governed To The Level Of Cattle”


Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces) vis SHTFplan.com,

As I wrote in several previous articles:

  1. The President cannot be completely assessed for effectiveness until the first 6 months have passed in this term,
  1. He needs to attain success within the first year (and optimally within the first six months) as the midterm election campaigning will begin for both houses of Congress in November. The President needs solid victories and a concrete direction for the administration to ensure no flip-flops and a loss of control of the Congress, and
  1. He must overcome the true masters of this country, as both political parties are an illusion with the paradigm shift well under way to loss of Constitutional freedoms and the “crafting” of transition to global governance with abrogation of national sovereignty and identity for Americans.

Over the course of the past week and the attempt to rid the United States of the abomination of Obamacare, the true nature of the state of things…the stance of our government…has revealed itself.  Here is how they have done it:

When Obama was in power, the Congress stamped their feet and yelled with “faux” frustration: powerless to reverse Obamacare.  Now Obama is gone and President Trump is in, and it is Congress…the Republican-controlled Congress, mind you…that will not get rid of Obamacare.

Citizens, let the investigations begin!  How many of these globalist lackeys, these pseudo-Republicans in Congress are on the payroll to vote to keep Obamacare against the will of their constituents?  Just in the manner of John Roberts of the Supreme Court: either paid or threatened to cast his vote.  Scan the accounts, check the deposits, and follow the money.  Always follow the money!  Who has been paid?  They can be found and the money can be traced to the paymaster(s), to the globalist oligarchs and/or their institution/LLC/NPO/NGO, etc.  I call all of it “Seesaw Tyranny,” the method they are using to push the paradigm shift.

“Seesaw Tyranny”: When 1/3 or 2/3 of the three “checks and balances” branches (President, Congress, or the Supreme Court) takes the blame for heinous laws or a failure to repeal them, and the remainder hops up and down, feigning indignation and pretending to be against what has happened…the subversion of representing the true will of the people.

That is what we have here, folks.  Start the investigations.  This is a Republican-controlled House of Representatives, and a Republican-controlled Senate.  The leaders of each have feigned indignation and incredulity…but they were also ones who took a firm stance before the Presidential election not to repeal Obamacare, but to repeal and replace Obamacare. They are Ryan and McConnell.  It’s time to function in the manner of “Madame Defarge,” and knit ourselves the lists of those Republicans who are against repealing Obamacare.  Then let the investigations begin, and start them out by following the money.

What is at stake here is that the government must…must…have a foothold to carry out intrusive acts in our lives.  The vehicle is the requirement by law to have health care coverage.  For more than 100 years, healthcare coverage required by law was the goal, and they will not…absolutely not…relinquish that control now that they have it!  They must have the ability to demand that we have it in order to control our money, our occupations, our children, and our lives!

Remember: Those bastards exempted themselves from the requirement to have it.

If this is not repealed, it will sit and fester.  The end goal is right out of Cloward and Piven…to use the existing system to collapse the society…and Obamacare is the vehicle.  This is the vehicle to crush the middle class and saddle them with the burden of the poor…the “patsies” lured into supporting the Marxists with bread (EBT cards and food stamps) and circuses (free cell phones, free everything).  The middle class collapses under the burden as the taxes steadily increase…and we pay for the jailers to fortify and refine the prison walls that confine us.

These pseudo-Republicans were paid off…to maintain the existing order (in this case Obamacare).  Meanwhile, the media and the Democrats will continue to work against everything that the President does…to stymie productive results…and the fickle populace will put the Democrats in control of Congress again…then the Democrats (Marxists) will keep pushing for the paradigm shift and eventually limit the President to one term.  Then Obamacare will be here to stay, and worse.  Do you think that’s the end state?   No, just the means to the end state…one as horrible as you can imagine, making “Soylent Green” appear tame.  They’ll also use our children as a weapon: a means of attaining compliance.  Tell me where a 26-year-old is a “kid” and his parents obligated to keep health care coverage for him/her.  No, it is about control.  Dominion.  Enslavement.

The future of this country is on hold right now.  What we need is for the President to go above and beyond the call of duty to save the country.  He must reign in these Republicans.  He must succeed by making the changes he promised in his campaign and show successes to a population with the attention span of a gnat whose votes can be bought by handouts.  He needs to take the gloves off, put a roll of quarters in each hand, and then put the gloves back on.

Vince Lombardi: “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”

We can’t afford to lose this one, and we only have until November when the battle really becomes joined.  Obamacare needs to be repealed and renounced, not repealed and replaced.  All Republicans that went against the repeal need to be investigated.  They need to be “repealed,” (removed) and replaced with representatives who will vote the will of the people and represent the people.  It’s all BS anyway: we’re going to be subjected to this “seesawing” of nothing being accomplished.  The subterfuge and sabotage by the Democrats and the pseudo-Republicans will continue for a “watered down” brief hiatus from the last 8 years of nightmarish misery…until a return to power by the Marxists.  Those pseudo-Republicans are the ones who will enable it.  Picture Elizabeth Warren in four years as the President with her husband, Cass Sunstein in the White House.

This battle against the President’s reforms and changes with Obamacare is only the beginning.  It is a battle on many fronts with numerous issues.  As citizens, we need to investigate these pseudo-Republican traitors who have not carried out the wills and wishes of their constituents.  The political parties are an illusion, but there is one thing that is not illusory: the absolute desire of government to rule without the consent of the governed and to relegate the governed to a position barely above that of cattle.  The President needs to take the gloves off and throw the Marquis of Queensbury rules aside in order to win.  We the People need to help him do it.  If not, we’re going to lose this country even before the next presidential election and fall into the hands of the globalists.  Should that happen, all our freedoms will die, and so will we as a nation.  The time to act is now, and the responsibility to act is ours.

President Trump, Melania Trump and Vice-President Pence Host Women’s Empowerment Event…


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President Trump Hosts an Opioid Epidemic Roundtable Discussion…


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LIMBAUGH: NO DOUBT ABOUT IT! Obama Was SURVEILLING The Trump Campaign


Published on Mar 24, 2017

Barack Obama Wants To Shut Down Judge Pirro


Published on Mar 7, 2017

An Important Message About YouTube and Freedom


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What The World Needs Now


The Fed’s job has changed from stabling banking in 1913 to promoting means for the government to borrow money at low cost .i.e low interest rates which is creating a sovereign debt bubble (related to monetary policy) that will implode either slightly before or slightly after 2020

sentinelblog

From Alhambra Investment Partners, by Jeffrey P. Snider

What good would opening monetary policy do? The “audit the Fed” bill has been passed again, this time out of committee and possibly set for a floor vote in the House. Though questions remain about the Senate, with at least President Trump its prospects are better than at any time it passed before. Proponents of the idea want to make monetary policy an open matter, though it isn’t really clear why. They claim that secrecy is a hindrance or too much power, but in truth I fail to see much if any difference if the discussions were given to the public contemporarily.

After all, we haveall thematerialnecessaryright nowwithoutthe auditby whichto burn the Fed to the ground. The transcripts from both 2008 and 2011 (as well as a good many in the years before…

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How Many Jobs Do Robots Destroy? Answers Emerge


I wrote about this effect in my economics thesis in 1965 and the bottom is that you have to look at the distribution of IQ/Education and the shift has been away from the jobs in the average range of IQ/Education into the upper ranges i.e. from labor to tech jobs. What this means as the shift continues is very simple there will be fewer and fewer people ABLE to do the jobs that are created.

sentinelblog

From Wolf Street, by Wolf Richter

But this isn’t the industrial revolution.

How many jobs do robots – whether mechanical robots or software – destroy? Do these destroyed jobs get replaced by the Great American Economy with better jobs? That’s the big discussion these days.

The answers have been soothing. Economists cite the industrial revolution. At the time, most humans replaced by machines found better paid, more productive, less back-breaking jobs. Productivity soared, and society overall, after some big dislocations, came out ahead. The same principle applies today, the soothsayers coo.

But this isn’t the industrial revolution. These days, robots and algorithms are everywhere, replacing not just manufacturing jobs but all kinds jobs in air-conditioned offices that paid big salaries and fat bonuses.

Just today, BlackRock announced a plan to consolidate $30 billion of their actively managed mutual fund activities with funds that are managed by algorithms and quantitative…

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Dollar Stores are Falling, Spelling Trouble for the Economy


More lower paying jobs than in the past with higher taxes, more expensive energy and food health care and school leaves less money for anything else.

sentinelblog

From Crush the Street, by Joshua Enomoto

Amid the noise of the U.S. financial markets, one sector is quietly falling behind. So-called “one dollar” discount retailers, or dollar stores, have been conspicuous laggards in the current equities cycle. In fact, dollar stores enjoyed only a temporary respite from the “Trump rally.” Now, it seems as if they’re struggling to stay afloat.

Two of the most popular dollar stores — Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) and Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) — are both underwater in terms of year-to-date performances. DLTR stock is the least affected between the two, down nearly 2%, whereas DG stock has shed a more disconcerting 7% in the markets. Both suffered severe choppiness and volatility in 2016, and the situation does not seem very promising for the rest of 2017.

On the surface level, the bearishness towards discount retailers might be thought of as bullish…

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