The Twitter Bot Inquiry Intensifies as Musk is Seemingly Stiff Armed


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

The ramifications for Twitter surrounding fake users or algorithmic bots are considerable.  One issue is overcharging advertisers for ad impressions based on mDAU’s, which are “monetized Daily Active Users.”  The second issue is an outcome of the first and relates to the valuation of Twitter.  If Twitter bots are higher than Twitter estimates, then the mDAU rate is overstated.

Elon Musk is indicating there may need to be a lowering of the purchase price unless Twitter becomes transparent with how they are calculating the number of bot users at less than 5%.  All outside reviews attempting to estimate the number of fake accounts, or bots, puts the estimations considerably higher than the claims by Twitter.  Elon Musk tweeted:

At “The All In Summit 2022,” Elon Musk gave the impression the purchase price of Twitter may be tenuous.  He said that a deal with a lower price tag is not “out of the question,” Bloomberg reported.  “Currently, what I’m being told is that there’s just no way to know the number of bots… It’s like, as unknowable as the human soul,” Musk said at the Miami conference, per a social media video, Bloomberg added.

Twitter CEO Parag Agrwal has responded to the controversy in a very obtuse twitter thread:

Let’s talk about spam. And let’s do so with the benefit of data, facts, and context…

First, let me state the obvious: spam harms the experience for real people on Twitter, and therefore can harm our business. As such, we are strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can, every single day. Anyone who suggests otherwise is just wrong.

Next, spam isn’t just ‘binary’ (human / not human). The most advanced spam campaigns use combinations of coordinated humans + automation. They also compromise real accounts, and then use them to advance their campaign. So – they are sophisticated and hard to catch.

Some final context: fighting spam is incredibly *dynamic*. The adversaries, their goals, and tactics evolve constantly – often in response to our work! You can’t build a set of rules to detect spam today, and hope they will still work tomorrow. They will not.

We suspend over half a million spam accounts every day, usually before any of you even see them on Twitter. We also lock millions of accounts each week that we suspect may be spam – if they can’t pass human verification challenges (captchas, phone verification, etc).

The hard challenge is that many accounts which look fake superficially – are actually real people. And some of the spam accounts which are actually the most dangerous – and cause the most harm to our users – can look totally legitimate on the surface.

Our team updates our systems and rules constantly to remove as much spam as possible, without inadvertently suspending real people or adding unnecessary friction for real people when they use Twitter: none of us want to solve a captcha every time we use Twitter.

Now, we know we aren’t perfect at catching spam. And so this is why, after all the spam removal I talked about above, we know some still slips through. We measure this internally. And every quarter, we have estimated that <5% of reported mDAU for the quarter are spam accounts.

Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews (in replicate) of thousands of accounts, that are sampled at random, consistently over time, from *accounts we count as mDAUs*. We do this every quarter, and we have been doing this for many years.

Each human review is based on Twitter rules that define spam and platform manipulation, and uses both public and private data (eg, IP address, phone number, geolocation, client/browser signatures, what the account does when it’s active…) to make a determination on each account.

The use of private data is particularly important to avoid misclassifying users who are actually real. FirstnameBunchOfNumbers with no profile pic and odd tweets might seem like a bot or spam to you, but behind the scenes we often see multiple indicators that it’s a real person.

Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5% – based on the methodology outlined above. The error margins on our estimates give us confidence in our public statements each quarter.

Unfortunately, we don’t believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can’t share). Externally, it’s not even possible to know which accounts are counted as mDAUs on any given day.

There are LOTS of details that are very important underneath this high-level description. We shared an overview of the estimation process with Elon a week ago and look forward to continuing the conversation with him, and all of you.  (Link to Twitter Article)

Methinks Parag Agrwal doth protest too much….  Especially if you overlay the ideological incentives that Twitter carries into its operational platform.

If you accept that Twitter is manipulating the public conversation intentionally (they are), then Twitter bots would serve an ideological function.  However, the issue of ‘bots’ operating on the Twitter platform is interesting when you consider the cost of platform operation.

On one hand, extensive auto-generated ‘bots’ would be an issue of cost and data-processing, a net negative.  On the other hand, the use of bots would be a manipulative practice for the creation of false impressions to generate advertising revenue.

If the scale of data-processing was subsidized, an outcome of a network of data processing centers -the AWS cloud- linked to government resources, the bots would not be a cost issue for the operation.  Despite the false impressions generated, bots would, however, under this weird situation, be useful for the manipulation of the conversation.

At the root of Elon Musk’s line of inquiry is the need to discover if this suspicion is true.

If the scale of bots has been underestimated (likely by a willfully blind operation) the advertising fees charged by Twitter were potentially fraudulent.  This is another operational reason (mitigating lawsuits from advertisers) for Musk to make the determination prior to the final purchase of the platform.

Taking Twitter private as a company, eliminating bots (which is essentially removing fraudulent users) then carries the potential benefits of both lowering costs and positioning the company to increase genuine ad revenue from authenticated users as real people.

Many people suspect the size of the political left on the Twitter platform is manipulated by programatic bots.  Meaning there seems to be more people on the left side of the spectrum because bots are deployed to give the impression of like-minded users.  I am one of the people who believe this suspicion is accurate, because it would be a typical way the ideological left operates.

The bots would be in addition to the deployment of algorithms that are designed to suppress speech the platform operators do not like.

I have long suspected the Twitter algorithm process is essentially assigning certain users into specifically designed data-processing containers where their voice is suppressed.   Some people call this ‘shadow-banning,’ I simply call it suppression.

Elon Musk represents a threat to the way the platform was/is designed to operate.  If Musk removes the discussion constraints, opens the containers and removes the restrictions, while simultaneously eliminating bots and fake accounts, the entire perspective of the platform could change very quickly.  This is what I think the current board and operators are trying to avoid.

Another rudimentary way to look at it…. Think about the last several months of public opinion polls.   Despite the efforts of a compliant media, repeatedly we see a 75/25 split against Biden and leftist policies.  The 3:4 and/or 4:5 ratio has been a consistent pattern for several months.  That ratio shows up in almost every poll.  However, if you look at Twitter that ratio is not present in the “organic” conversation about the same issues.

As CTH has said for many years, there are more of us than them.  However, Big Tech controls the mechanisms we use to communicate – and as a consequence the scale of our assembly is severely understated.

Twitter user fraud is the digital and social media equivalent to voter election fraud.   The voices raised in opposition to researching both issues are exactly the same.

Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious….

Sunday Talks, Finland President Sauli Niinistö Indicates a Global Cleaving Behind Decision to Join NATO


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 15, 2022 | Sundance

BASELINE – Boil all international and geopolitical issues down to their common denominator and everything, E.V.E.R.Y.T.H.I.N.G., every issue, every discussion, every policy, every position, everything -all of it- circles around economics. Everything is secondary to the underlying economics of every single issue. Power or weakness, famine or war, peace or conflict, master or servant, culture or crisis, growth or collapse, the entirety of everything -including the foundation of freedom- centers around the economics.  There are trillions at stake.

In this interview Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö made some very interesting remarks when asked about his decision to reverse the long-established geopolitical position of Finland and join the “western alliance,” vis-a-vis NATO.

Listen carefully [01:44] when President Niinistö explains why.  Niinistö explains he did not, and does not, consider Russia a threat; however, “what we see now, Europe, the world, is more divided. There’s not very much room for ‘non-aligned,’ in-between. So that was also what we are thinking.”  WATCH:

In March of this year CTH noted, “this intentional global cleaving, using the opportunity created by the Ukraine crisis, is going to be the major story of this year.  This global splitting can be looked at in multiple ways, but the overarching story is the ramifications of two global trade relationships.”

Two world groupings.  One group, oil-based energy (traditional, grey on map below), and one group GREEN energy (the build back better plan, yellow on map).  It is not accidental these two groups hold similar internal geopolitical views and perspectives, hence, their alignment or lack thereof with the sanctions against Russia.

The important part to watch is if this cleaving continues, there are going to be two sets of nations with two structurally different economies.  An oil based energy group and a group chasing the Build Back Better, Green New Deal, human population control mechanisms under the ruse of climate change.

Behind the G7 and NATO, we know the multinational corporations assembled in the World Economic Forum are ultimately the driver of political policy. The central bankers, finance ministers and politicians all operate under the guidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Together the WEF, IMF, WB, WTO, EU central banks and U.S. federal reserve, collectively represent what we call the globalists.  And the globalists are pushing the climate change agenda hard {WEF LINK}.

It is important to remember the ultimate goal of the ‘climate change’ promotors (World Economic Forum) is not an energy system that changes the global climate. The goal of the ‘climate change’ group is to create a carbon trading system; a new financial mechanism (a global tax program) to control human activity on a world-wide basis.  This system also needs a digital identity in order to work {hint-hint}.

As a consequence, when we look at the fracturing of the global energy marketplace, it is worth viewing the divided group through the prism of the globalist carbon trading scheme.

The oil-based energy group is going to have a strong strategic advantage in production costs.  They will continue using oil, coal and gas (economic fuels), which are abundant, cheap and the infrastructure is already in place.

The western alliance group is going to be at a strong disadvantage – at least for a generation or two, as costs associated with the production of goods and new energy systems are going to be much more expensive to operate.  This disadvantage will continue while the transition into Build Back Better sustainable or renewable energy takes place.

It’s not just energy products at stake, it’s also very important outcroppings from energy products like food.

In the macro view, stuff from one group is going to be cheap and plentiful, the exact same stuff from the western alliance group is going to be more expensive and scarce.  There is going to be a geopolitical battle in the middle of this.

A battle based on ideology, economics and powerful interests.

The values of western democracy will change; heck, they are changing just look at what the same western democracies did with COVID.  In the western alliance government will get bigger, more oppressive, more controlling and ultimately the people will have less freedom.   We are feeling the outer bands of this shifting hurricane right now.

A great cleaving is underway, and Finland just signed-up for a team….

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It’s as if the WEF crew wanted to provoke Russia to act in order to get the party started.

Wait, wha….

Senator Rand Paul Blocks Fast-Track Senate Vote for $40 Billion Additional Ukraine Funding


Posted originally on the conservative house on May 12, 2022 | Sundance 

Senator Rand Paul has blocked a fast-track senate vote on the additional $40 billion funding package created by Joe Biden and House Democrats.  Both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell approved a fast-track vote; however, senator Rand Paul (KY) stood defiant against their effort.

Despite the high-profile pressure from the two Senate leaders, Rand Paul refused to move and that means the Senate will have to take procedural steps to overcome his objection, which could take several days. “My oath of office is the US constitution not to any foreign nation and no matter how sympathetic the cause, my oath of office is to the national security of the United States of America,” Paul said in his remarks before objecting to moving to swift passage of the bill. “We cannot save Ukraine by dooming the US economy.” WATCH:

The $40 billion supplemental spending bill for Ukraine is more than the total military budget of Russia.  The combined Ukraine aid packages now exceed $60 billion, more than the entire budget for the U.S. Dept of Homeland Security including border protection.

Rand Paul is on the right side of history with his position, and the overwhelming majority of Americans agree with him.   However, the opinion of the people is irrelevant to the Senate.   Even democrat Senator Chuck Schumer seemed to admit this point when he said Rand Paul’s position “was not the opinion of the overwhelming majority here,” meaning in the senate.  Schumer would have used other terms if he thought the American people agreed with him.  They don’t, and he knows it.

Biden’s America, Supreme Court Justices Threatened by Democrat Activists, Fences Installed to Prevent Insurrection, White House Silent


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 5, 2022 | Sundance

This is the state of our union.  These are the real Domestic Violent Extremists (DVE’s).

Democrat activists have listed the names and home addresses of conservative Supreme Court justices in an effort to organize violence against the court.  A taller perimeter fence was installed around the Supreme Court building last night to stop any violent efforts by democrat activists, and personal security measures have been increased for the justices.

(Daily Mail) – An activist group called ‘Ruth Sent Us’ has published the supposed addresses of Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thmas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett and Chief Justice John Roberts and are planning a ‘walk-by’ of their homes next Wednesday, May 11.

‘Our 6-3 extremist Supreme Court routinely issues rulings that hurt women, racial minorities, LGBTQ+ and immigrant rights,’ the group’s website reads. ‘We must rise up to force accountability using a diversity of tactics.’ (read more)

Unfortunately, and in keeping with all prior support precedent for Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, Antifa and other violent groups, the installed president and radical administration officials have aligned themselves with the violent confrontation.  The White House has refused to speak out against the intimidation effort and/or condemn the violence.

This is the state of our union with Democrats attacking the institutions of government.

The security officials for Justice Alito cancelled plans for him to participate in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals judicial conference starting on Thursday, as the associate justice is tasked with reviewing emergency appeals from the 5th Circuit. It is unclear if Justice Roberts and Justice Thomas, who were slated to get remarks at a similar conference for the 11th Circuit on Thursday and Friday, will still appear.

George W Bush Will Campaign for GA Republican Candidate Brian Kemp, The GOP Club Have Set The Stage


Posted originally on the conservative on May 4, 2022 | Sundance

It’s not that hard to see the GOPe Club moves in Georgia, you just have to shake off the ‘battered conservative syndrome‘ to accept it.

Georgia is holding an open primary, where democrats can vote for republicans and republicans can vote for democrats.

The Democrat Governor candidate is Stacy Abrams, and she is running unopposed.

The AME Church Network (think prior Mississippi strategy for Thad Cochran by  Haley Barbour and Mitch McConnell) have been activated to vote in the republican primary, so democrats in Georgia will choose the republican candidate who will run against Stacy Abrams.

Georgia Democrats will vote for incumbent republican governor Brian Kemp this month because that’s who they want on the ticket in the November general election, facing their candidate, Stacy Abrams.  Georgia is the homebase of the AME church network and their political operations.  This is part of the reason why Georgia politics is: (a) racially divisive; and (b) fraught with corruption.

As a direct result of democrats selecting the opposition, Stacy Abrams will win in November.  Open primaries are club rules used to make red states turn blue.  Allowing your opposition to choose your candidate is never smart. [Note: Texas is soon to follow if they are not careful.]

Everything at this level of electoral games is controlled by the state political clubs.   The republican club in Georgia is ideologically against MAGA more than they are against Democrats.  The GA parties control the rules and thereby the political outcomes, the voters in GA operate under the illusion of choice.  This is not uncommon.

The key point is to note that republican governor Brian Kemp (pictured right) is going to be the predetermined primary winner.  Kemp will have GOPe support, some smaller faction of conservative support, and he will have more than enough democrats voting for him to beat any challenge.

President Trump has endorsed former GA Senator David Perdue for the governor race.  Likely Senator Perdue sought that endorsement, and Trump gave it to him despite Perdue being a lifetime member of the Mitch McConnell stable.

We can debate Perdue and McConnell’s motives for running this strategy, but the weedy point is essentially moot.  Even with full MAGA support, David Perdue will not beat Brian Kemp in the GA primary because organized democrats (AME church network) are going to vote for Kemp.

There is no scenario where Kemp doesn’t win the primary, it is a done deal.  The club is happy.

Into this scenario the GOPe club now have an opportunity to attack and diminish their real enemy, Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.

Donald Trump, trying to break the GOP corruption cycle in Georgia (noted by their activity in 2020) has endorsed David Perdue.  However, Mitch McConnell and now George W Bush are very publicly supporting Kemp.  Duh, the Kemp victory is assured.

When Kemp wins the primary, the MAGA-ino (in name only) candidate, David Perdue, will be defeated.  This allows the GOPe club to push the narrative that Trumpism is dead within the republican party.  We are dealing with an internecine battle between the old guard and maga inside the RNC club.

The Mitch McConnell/George W Bush crowd will use the Kemp primary victory to diminish MAGA and the national media will put the massive spotlight on the Trump-endorsed loss in order to diminish Donald Trump and MAGA.  It’s a familiar playbook and repeated pattern (see Tea Party).

GEORGIA – The [Kemp] fundraiser with Bush this month will put Kemp in front of an influential room of Texas donors just days before the Georgia primary on May 24. Hosts of the May 16 event include Crow; Jim Francis, a major Texas bundler; Republican strategist Karl Rove; and Ross Perot, Jr., son of the former presidential candidate.  Tickets for a V.I.P. reception are listed at $15,200, while the general reception is going for $5,000. (read more)

The high information Georgia conservative voters know that Brian Kemp is corrupt and would have a very hard time voting for him.  However, Brian Kemp losing in November to Stacy Abrams is no big deal to the GOPe club.  The Club would rather lose the Governor’s seat and retain power, than defeat a democrat opponent and be held accountable for political reform and federalism policies they really don’t support.

Besides, even in the unfortunate event that Kemp did win the general election (GA base voters all collectively decide to hold their nose), the Club knows Kemp’s crew will not reform or change anything; so, it’s a win/win either way.

On the other side of the Club dynamic (the democrat wing), the most likely scenario is Stacy Abrams winning.

This would flip the state from red to blue, and provide the fuel for the national press and DNC to proclaim that Democrat policies are on the rise and everyone loves democrats.   Even if Abram’s is the only win in the entire 2022 mid-term election, that will be their message.

This outcome sets the stage for the return half of the AME Church Network quid-pro-quo that was established in 2020.

When Obama and James Clyburn cut the 2020 Biden deal, Obama got his third term to execute radical kamikaze policies without concern for reelection, in exchange for AME support of Biden.  The 2024 return payment is Stacy Abrams as the 2024 democrat nominee.

It’s all club games.  Unfortunately in the Georgia mid-term Donald Trump endorsed the candidate the GOPe club had specifically put into place in order to lose.  David Perdue will land a cushy Wall Street organized corporate gig; Brian Kemp will land a cushy Wall Street organized corporate gig, and Stacy Abrams will be the Georgia governor.

Having looked carefully, I cannot see a countering move that would disrupt the Republican Club plan for this one.

With Democrats able to select the Republican nominee, unfortunately Georgia looks lost.

Americans Lost Hope in the Democratic Party


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted May 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Every facet of life has become more expensive. Regardless of your net worth, chances are you are feeling the effects of inflation. According to a new ABC News poll, 94% of Americans stated they are “concerned” or “upset” about inflation. They likely would have chose other descriptors if available. Around half said they were “concerned but not upset,” as if this was not an entirely preventable situation.

They then went on to ask respondents about their views on Biden, and 52% said they disapproved. Only 21% “strongly approve” of Biden’s work – why?

Well, 51% who approved support the endless COVID restrictions. This is the group that voted for Biden out of their hatred for Trump and will likely vote again out of fear. Regardless of party affiliation, most Americans disagreed with Biden on absolutely every other issue. Around 57% see that his administration is hurting the US economy, and 68% now understand that Biden has not done enough to control inflation. As much as they would like the term “Putin’s price hike” to stick, most of us know the truth.

Half of Americans stated they trust the Republicans to tackle key issues, compared to 36% who still trust the Democrats. Only 31% believe the Democrats can handle inflation, while 50% have hope in the Republicans. Americans seem to favor the Republicans on every issue, such as inflation, immigration, crime, and the war in Ukraine. There are many indicators for what to expect during the 2022 US midterm elections.

Liawatha Big Mad


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance 

Senator Liawatha is big mad because she might not be able to kill babies any longer. WATCH:

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There is something very disturbing about people who cannot control their physical, mental or emotional state.  Expressing rage because the abortion issue could potentially be reversed back to the states for rules and restrictions on the murder of babies reflects a particular instability.

Solid Take from Glenn Greenwald on Elon Musk Motives and Purchase of Twitter


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 26, 2022 

Fox News’ Tucker Carlson previewed a discussion with Glenn Greenwald that will appear in full tomorrow on Fox Nation.  In this segment {Direct Rumble Link Here} Greenwald gives his perspective on the motives of Elon Musk purchasing Twitter.

Greenwald does a good job encapsulating the essential support most feel for the Musk effort.  There are many people still uncertain about how this will all roll out, and Musk has been favorable to Big Govt in his two most famous endeavors, Tesla and SpaceX.   Elon Musk’s phase of pushing back against speech and internet control is more recent, and as a result has left many people wondering about it.

As Greenwald notes, there really isn’t a downside for people who are trying to break the totalitarian and monopoly control systems on the internet.  The upside benefits to on-line freedom, debate, discussion and the first real effort to stop internet censorship are well worth supporting.  Greenwald eloquently puts an appropriate context to the battle.  WATCH:

Tucker Carlson Gives His Perspective on Musk Successfully Purchasing Twitter Platform


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 25, 2022

There is an angle to this move which looms.  If the doomsday predictions of Twitter’s Thursday anticipated first quarter financial earnings are correct, it is entirely possible that Musk is about to take a massive financial hit.

Some, including myself, who understand the financial black hole that Twitter’s business model represents, have suspicions that Twitter may be hung around Musk’s neck like a millstone as he’s thrown into the deep state sea of social media.  It will be interesting to see how quickly Musk responds to those Q1 financials.  [NOTE: I foresee be a small user fee in the future]

News Release – “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated,” said Mr. Musk. “I also want to make Twitter better than ever by enhancing the product with new features, making the algorithms open source to increase trust, defeating the spam bots, and authenticating all humans. Twitter has tremendous potential – I look forward to working with the company and the community of users to unlock it.”

Tucker Carlson outlined the political ramifications surrounding breaking one of the big social media platforms away from the deep state control agents. WATCH:

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President Donald Trump will not be returning to Twitter, he is sticking with TruthSocial which is nearing completion.  “I am not going on Twitter, I am going to stay on TRUTH,” Trump told Fox News. “I hope Elon buys Twitter because he’ll make improvements to it and he is a good man, but I am going to be staying on TRUTH.”

There are a lot of downstream ramifications that have yet to surface as a result of the Musk-Twitter purchase.  Will users find out what the rules are for the specific network containers they have been assigned to?  Will the scale of simultaneous user data-processing be made public along with the algorithms that Twitter uses once you have been given a specific container assignment?

There is opportunity for much more understanding of how the social media platforms operate just by permitting increased transparency.   There’s a possibility once the container assignment process is made public, people will then start to inquire about Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and other Big Tech platform processes that divide people based on arbitrarily determined viewpoints.

Most social media users do not understand the technology behind the platform they are using, although a greater awareness is ongoing.

It is deep inside that technology that government and social media intersect, and as people get closer and closer to that intersection, there will be reactions from the intelligence operators.  The public-private partnership is not codified anywhere, there is no rulebook or record keeping that will assist anyone to understand what the current process is.

Everything up to now has been easy for the tech Oligarchs to continue because no one knows how it works.  Each social media system knows the larger objective so little communication between them is needed.  However, just like Poland in the 1980’s, once people take to the open cyber streets and start to realize the scale of likeminded crowds around them, the ‘there are more of us than them‘ awakening, there is a risk the platform operators will lose control.

Joyful people being ungovernable is a worst-case scenario for Washington DC.

The Fourth Branch of Government will demand legislation to prevent on-line liberty.

We are living in a time of great consequence.

It will be interesting to see how much pain this pebble in the deep state shoe creates.

Their ‘pain‘ is our freedom.

Before Obama’s Neocon War on Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Apr 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Before Obama started the New Cold War against Russia following Hillary’s failed attempt to take over Russia by interfering in the 2000 election, the world was much safer before all of this Neocon nonsense began when Obama came to power in 2008. Ever since then, Hillary, a staunch Neocon, did everything in her power to destroy the relations between the United States and Russia.