Right v Wrong

Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I have been following you now for a few years. You seem to be never wrong. You always say it is not your opinion. Is there some secret to how you do this? Nobody else seems to even compare. Or is it all just the computer?


ANSWER: We all are human and as such we make mistakes. I understand that the big picture with war and events seems to be never wrong. That is Socrates – not me. I have been wrong in regard to my interpretation at times, but the cycles are always correct like the ECM.

I was one of the first International Hedge Fund Managers. I had even warned Congress back in 1985 that they should merge the CFTC and SEC because complying with one meant you went to prison with the other. They forced funds management offshore. We are all connected. You cannot have gold rise to $10,000 and the dollar turns to dust and nothing else happens. The world economy is like a set of dominoes. If you get the first one right, all the rest will follow.

These people who try to forecast one market can NEVER be correct for the wildcard always comes externally. Right now, the Ukraine war is impacting the global economy and markets. You could not asses the impact by simply watching the Fed. If it were not for (1) the stupid lockdowns of COVID disrupting the supply chain, then (2) this proxy war against Russia and imposing the absurd sanctions on them when they are a key supplier around the world in many areas, then inflation would not have risen and the Fed would not be raising interest rates. Those in power simply only look in front of their nose. Every action has a ripple effect that impacts long-term events. We cannot escape that. I have designed Socrates to survive me. It is not my opinion and when I do express my opinion I state the difference. Even my interpretation of an array can be wrong, not the array.

Everything is connected. We cannot escape that. Without Socrates monitoring everything around the world and writing its own reports on over 1,000 instruments globally, there is nobody who can possibly compete with a personal opinion. The world is far too complex for an individual to see everything from a personal gut feeling.

Because I had focused on currencies from the collapse of Bretton Woods and was called into the first bank failure in 1973 because of a 7% move in currencies,  my company attracted clients from around the world. I had to see the world through everyone’s eyes – not just the dollar. In July 1985, I took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks announcing the end of deflation/peak in the dollar, and the reemergence of inflation, which led to the Japanese Bubble in 1989. Interest Rates peaked the very day at 1981.35. The end of that wave was 1985.65 the month of July. It was the beginning of a Private Wave which will end 2037.25.

We published charts back in Barron’s during the early 1980s showing gold in dollars compared to a basket of currencies. We ended up with the largest institutions in the world because our reports went out on telex and the communication costs per market were $225 per day. Only the biggest institutions could afford our services. Then came fax, and then email which has expanded our reach to everyone these days. But make no mistake about this. People may criticize me and others are desperate to try to prevent people from using us. It is either because they cannot compete and pretend this is my opinion rather than a computer, or they want to manipulate the markets and we just get in their way.

The War Against Nitrogen Fertilizer is More Than You Realize

Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Dec 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: As an ex-soldier, whilst reading your posts regarding the Right to bear arms, Nitrogen fertilizer, and Diesel fuel I suddenly got a brain warp to the past. In Rhodesia with sanctions on us, we developed a bomb using Nitrogen fertilizer, blue soap, and diesaline. It was similar to napalm. When the change came to Zimbabwe all our weapons were taken away from us and locked up. We also had to reapply for licenses for any private weapons. This shows that when you have an informed and prepared public the government is at a disadvantage. The current attack on fertilizer, auto fuels, and guns shows just how scared the WEF and their one world order are desperate to control these three commodities. WHY?

REPLY: I think you bring up a very good point that is often overlooked. Nitrogen fertilizer can be used to make bombs. They are doing their best to try to outlaw all guns. It seems they want more crazy people shooting up schools and then they demand the end to guns every time. There is no question that those in power KNOW the monetary system is collapsing. They have put forth Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI), NOT because they care about the people, they ONLY care about retaining power over the people. The EU has wiped out most pension funds with negative interest rates since 2014 and decrees that they must have government bonds between 70% and 90%. Scandinavia is outside of the EU.

The GBI is to prevent millions of people from storming the Parliament with pitchforks when they wake up and their pensions are gone. Eliminating guns and even Nitrogen fertilizers are part of the effort to disarm the people. What is taking place in the Netherlands and this insane demand to end Nitrogen fertilizers under the pretense of Climate Change is more suited for a B-Rated SciFi movie with green lizard aliens coming to eat all humanity. They are using Climate Change for Political Change.

The West Simply Wants War With Russia

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Dec 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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If you dare suggest peace, you suddenly are painted as a Putin Supporter. The West simply wants war and this is really about Climate Change. Even the propaganda pretending this is all Putin and if somehow he was removed, the world would be better is utter nonsense. We may see the reality of that come April/May 2023. The West is perfectly fine with sacrificing the Ukrainian people for their agenda. They are just collateral damage that they are willing to sacrifice until the last Ukrainian dies.

There are people who know Russia as I do. The press will not air their views or question the narrative they have been instructed to push because it goes against their desired agenda. Former Commander of US Army General Ben Hodges admitted that Putin’s successor will be “much worse.” Hodges said. “We see the North Caucasus and (Chechen leader Ramzan) Kadyrov, who is anticipating Russia’s possible collapse and is trying to protect himself somehow. I absolutely don’t call for regime change in Russia – this is the choice for the Russian people to make, but we must understand that whoever comes after Putin will be much worse.”

What the Western news is presenting is worse than propaganda – it is a deliberate lie. The West is really waging war for Climate Change. This is why not a single Western leader is calling for any peace or negotiation. My mentor in geopolitical analysis has been Henry Kissinger. Henry has publicly stated that EVERY president has always invited him to the White House but not Biden.

On the other side of the world, the US has been supplying military equipment to Taiwan since 1979 under the Taiwan Relations Act. Before Biden, the US has agreed to acknowledge the One China policy that states Taiwan is under Chinese rule. “A direct confrontation should be avoided and Taiwan cannot be the core of the negotiations because it is between China and the United States,” Kissinger stated, going as far as to say neutrality is crucial to “overall peace.”

In pledging to defend Taiwan from any Chinese attack, the president has made war with China much more likely. He has openly reverse policy with China since the days of Nixon. The Climate Change people in his administration driven by the insane Progressive Green Movement, has done everything possible to create World War III with no regard for humanity because the planet takes top priority. I suppose a bunch of nukes flying around is good for the planet if it removes more of we – the new plague of vermin.

UN & ICC Now Guarantee World War III is the Only Solution

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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I previously reported that my sources inside the ICC would move to charge Putin with war crimes. No head of state has EVER been charged for the actions of those on the battlefield. Russia is not a member of the ICC, and neither is the United States for that matter. This has merely guaranteed that we are heading into World War III. Putin will not attend the G20, for now, he certainly cannot when the West would use the event to stage an arrest of Putin. They have burned all the bridges for negotiation for peace. This leaves the only resolution is all-out war.

Then the United Nations also ensured that we have no choice but to enter World War III. This is the agenda. The United Nations General Assembly has now adopted a resolution calling for Russia to pay war reparations for its invasion of Ukraine. This is to include the billions of dollars in damage and destruction, as well as reparations for the loss of life. This, too, GUARANTEES there will be no resolution, and this entire event was staged to force Putin to move in to protect the Donbas when Ukraine and the West have torn up both the Belgrade and Minsk Agreements because they want to destroy Russia for climate change.

Russia is the largest energy producer. Some 50% of its GDP is all energy. The US blew up the pipeline deliberately to cut off the sale of energy to Europe. What the US did was an act of war. Of course, nobody in the West and certainly not the ICC or the United Nations would EVER rule against the United States. The West is on this climate change mission, and they are desperately trying to destroy Russia using Ukraine as an excuse.

This UN resolution states plainly that the Russian Federation “must bear the legal consequences of all its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for injury, including any damage, caused by such acts.” It boldly goes even further, stating that it will establish “an international mechanism for reparation for damage, loss or injury.”

This is the very same action that was taken against Germany following World War I. They imposed draconian reparation payments that impoverished the German people and caused hyperinflation when the government seized 10% of all private wealth to try to make those payments in December 1922 and laid the very foundation for Hitler’s rise.

It was John Maynard Keynes who warned that the reparations against Germany would create disaster. In his “The Economic Consequences of the Peace,” published in December 1919, Keynes predicted that the stiff war reparations and other harsh terms imposed on Germany by the treaty would lead to the financial collapse of the country. That indeed unleashed the hyperinflation in 1923 and led to the German people turning to Hitler, as Keynes warned, because it would have serious economic and political repercussions on Europe as a whole. That set the stage for World War II, and once again, these people are repeating the very mistakes that unleashed World War II all for climate change.

The sheer stupidity of what is taking place among our world leaders is unthinkable. They WANT war to cover up the collapse of Western debt and the entire monetary system, for they can no longer borrow endlessly. That is precisely what Yellen has said by admitting that she wants to buy back long-term debt and swap it with short-term all because there is a growing debt crisis with NO BID on the long-term as we just saw in the British market.

If you cannot negotiate peace — there is ONLY one solution — all-out war. Ukrainian people are fools. The West has been using them as cannon fodder, and they welcome the death of every Ukrainian to justify their war against Russia. They will wage this proxy war against Russia until the last Ukrainian dies. It is a shame that people believe the propaganda all to “Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of war.”

This is all about climate change. Imposing these types of sanctions is total insanity. It led to the rise of Hitler, and this only confirms my deepest concern that the removal of Putin will lead to the real hardliners seizing power, and the only reparations solution will be to wipe out Ukraine off the face of the map.

There will be no other solution. They have all now confirmed that they do not seek peace. Russia has stated many times it would negotiate and simply demanded what had been agreed upon in the Minsk Agreement. The Donbas has never been part of Ukraine. Their refusal to allow Russians in the Donbas to vote on their own sovereignty and even outlawing their language and religion is not a fight for democracy, as Zelensky claims — this is a proxy war against Russia. Zelensky has committed his country to a hopeless war, and he will flee at the end, given sanctuary and a private jet for being a good boy and betraying his own people.

The West has indeed unleashed the Dogs of War. Cry Havoc, for our pretend elected politicians prefer war to honest economic reform where they would have to admit that borrowing year after year with no intention of ever paying anything back has come to an end. They were willing to sacrifice the lives of so many people all to retain power.

Another Brick in the Wall

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is rare for a celebrity to speak out against the agenda. Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters has reached a level of fame where he can question the status quo as his legacy is sealed. Waters called Biden a “war criminal” for encouraging the war in Ukraine. “This war is about the action and reaction of NATO pushing right up to the Russian border, which they promised they wouldn’t do when Gorbachev negotiated the withdrawal of the USSR,” Waters declared. Amazing how a musician understands the situation better than politicians.

CNN attempted to argue with Waters, but he held firm. The reporter attempted and failed to belittle Waters by saying he should see Russia as the enemy as his father died in the last world war. However, that is precisely what Waters and any sensible human are aiming to avoid – another world war. “Don’t forget 23 million Russians died protecting you and me from the Nazis,” Waters said.

He then asked the reporter what he thought America would do if China began to line up on the US border. We all know the answer to that question. Imagine if China placed nuclear weapons in or near Canada and Mexico? The nuclear apocalypse would have already happened.

Many hold the same views as Roger Waters, but they are too afraid to speak up. The average person, who may not tune into political commentary, will listen to celebrities when they speak. The problem becomes the fear of cancelation. It is career suicide to question the current agenda. Pink Floyd cannot be canceled; they’ve been popular for far too many decades. The left “hippies” of the past are nothing like the hipsters today who encourage war and echo the voices of the elite.

Division of Pure Hatred

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Nov 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Marty
Are we indeed witnessing this divide between socialists/Marxists and conservatives/sensible people worldwide not just in the USA? Is this the last worldwide battle against marxism (anti-God)?
Look at Brazil. No different. In the protests yesterday several Lula supporters actually ran over Bolsonaristas who were protesting in the street. At least 5 were taken to the hospital and reports of some deaths. They were filmed on people’s phones. It’s horrible what the left will do.
Is this the point where we all need to choose a side and step up to be counted? Freedom has to be fought for it seems.


ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. While the United States is deeply divided and will ultimately break up as will Europe, our politicians have been fanning the flames of division. The controversy that Tucker Carlson created by characterizing Jammie Raskin as saying “Russia is an Orthodox Christian country with traditional social values. And for that reason, it must be destroyed no matter what the cost to us.”  Tucker’s interpretation of Raskin’s speech is incorrect. Implied by Raskin was that the Democrats stand for freedom and politicians should not be telling you what to do. He insinuates that Putin rejects those ideas implied because it is an Orthodox Christian Country. Putin has rejected the West’s cancel culture and teaching sexual fluidity to children he called a Crime against Humanity.

Putin has said that the cancel culture, and divisions of people, were once part of Russia and led to its demise. Yes, he stands against homosexuality, and this is part of what is inferred by Raskin that Russia is not as liberal and rejects the principles of Wokeness and the push of the Democrats. Did Raskin outright call for a religious war? No. However, his vitriol is rather absurd pretending that the Democrats stand for democracy and freedom when they are dictating how everyone should live from heating their homes to what they drive. Then, he pretends that America stands for Ukraine while refusing to explain that Zelensky has outlawed Russian to be spoken by Russians in the Donbas and that they are to surrender their religious beliefs as well.

On September 6th, 2014, an official statement was made illustrating the religious battle that was also unfolding. The new Patriarch Filaret, who heads the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyivan Patriarchate, came out and said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has fallen under the spell of Satan and faces eternal damnation to hell unless he repents.

The Western press refuses to report the antics of Zelensky. He has waged a holy war. He has raised the so-called Patriarch of Kyiv and ordered all the Russians in the Donbas that their churches are now to be subsidiaries of Kyiv. He has supplanted the Patriarch of Moscow replacing him with his Kyiv version effectively this is like replacing the Pope with some local bishop. The French did that by seizing the Papacy and moving it from Rome to Avignon. But, hey, Zelensky stands for freedom and democracy while refusing to honor the Mink Agreement that was to allow the Donbas to vote on their independence. So much for democracy.

Why should there be one country under God? It was the Civil War that saw the motto “IN GOD WE TRUST” appears on American Currency in 1864. God is no longer part of the foundation of the United States. Marxism is forbidden by the Ten Commandments. Religion has been under assault in America for quite some time. Some have argued that getting rid of paper money will even kill that motto once and for all.

There is nothing about the United States that adheres to any religious dogma. This idea of “freedom” is really freedom from any religious restraint. This is what has divided the country deeply and the Democrats are looking to win on Abortion. There were extreme abortion supporters who supported even an abortion right after birth. Even the Washington Post had to question that one. I suppose we can do away with the death penalty and just call it post-birth abortion to make it sound better and legal.

The world is divided. Politicians have caused havoc worldwide. They are only interested in winning at all costs and have been demonizing their opponents and that simply divides the country just as Hillary called everyone who voted for Trump, 50%+ – DEPLORABLES. Let’s face it. Both sides are running campaigns of hate.

The United States is already divided. History confirms that a house divided like this cannot possibly stand. The post-2032 era will be a period where society must come to grips with how to design a nation from scratch. The politicians have fueled the politics of hate. I for one could never see myself even dating someone from the other side politically. It would result in constant arguments and at the end of the day, you just cannot live with someone who would be opposed to all your basic beliefs.