Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jan 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
I saw Frank Sinatra play once at the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. It was one of the most memorable concerts I ever attended.
I saw Frank Sinatra play once at the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. It was one of the most memorable concerts I ever attended.
QUESTION: What is your opinion on Kondratieff Waves?
ANSWER: All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973 which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.
There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.
Consequently, when you are looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on just the current system, he would be focusing on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.41% of the civil workforce.
One of the bigger issues never fully grasped by many Americans was President Donald Trump’s restraint in relation to the power of the federal government under the guise of COVID-19 action. No president in our lifetime was ever more reluctant to weaponize the opportunity to expand government; Donald Trump stood the gap.
CTH warned since last summer of the ramifications if a leftist group used COVID-19 to expand federal power over peoples lives and livelihoods. Today, JoeBama’s team has unleashed a series of TEN EXECUTIVE ORDERS fully weaponizing the opportunity.
(2) Executive order on COVID school safety, weaponized the Dept of Education. Leverages federal funds, grants. Supports the education labor union effort. Exactly as expected.
(3) Executive order creating COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force. Weaponizing the HHS takeover; the Secretary of Agriculture, the Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, the Secretary of Education, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Again, exactly as predicted.
(4) Executive order using National Health Crisis as a security threat. Weaponizing the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, the Secretary of Homeland Security.
(5) Executive order taking over National Guard. The domestic terrorists need a category within the health emergency. The isolation and detainment camps need security. “Support of Operations or Missions to Prevent and Respond to the Spread of COVID-19. (a) The Secretary of Defense shall, to the maximum extent feasible and consistent with mission requirements (including geographic proximity), request pursuant to 32 U.S.C. 502(f) that all State and territorial governors order National Guard forces to perform duty to fulfill mission assignments.”
(6) Executive order taking control of travel. “The Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Secretary of Transportation (including through the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)), the Secretary of Homeland Security (including through the Administrator of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and the Commandant of the United States Coast Guard).
You can read the rest HERE.
There is a COVID-19 virus; however, COVID is not more dangerous than all other flu-like viruses that impact the respiratory system. COVID-19 is very manageable and doesn’t carry a higher fatality rate. [Usefulness As A Narrative]
Why is COVID-19 being disproportionately hyped as such a dangerous threat, when the reality of the statistical danger is much less than the intense level of hype?… That is the key question.
The answer is… social changes under the guise of COVID-19 mitigation, are the entry point for the goals and aspirations of the political left on a national and global scale. COVID-19 is a virus, but also a very important political weapon, and we are about to discover exactly what the purpose of the hype is all about. What follows will help understand; and when you encounter the fear it will help to reconcile what people cannot figure out.
Joe Biden is an avatar; a political pawn; a cognitively declining guy who has no idea what is happening around him. The people behind the Biden campaign, those in real control of what this is about, have not hidden their goals and aspirations. These are not stupid people. They are scheming, conniving, ever-planning, ever-manipulating & Machiavellian types within the political system; lusting for power, influence and affluence.
What they are planning to do is weaponize COVID-19 to attain ideological objectives. This is why they hyped the fear within it for almost a year. Nothing within their plan requires the approval or consent of any representative body in Washington DC. COVID is the tool to “fundamentally change” the way the United States exists.
On October 23rd, those behind the Biden campaign dropped all pretense, openly having their candidate state publicly his intention to control the lives of all Americans using the authority of a weaponized federal government to advance national COVID-19 regulations.
As you watch this video from Biden’s campaign it is important to remember state government officials have already moved to define “essential businesses” and “essential workers” during the forced shut-downs. That is going to become a bigger issue downstream; however, for now just watch closely what Joe Biden is saying here:https://www.youtube.com/embed/x6PZxRXZsvs
The Dept of Transportation would be the agency enforcing a national interstate transit mask requirement. However, don’t focus on the DoT part of what he was saying… that’s only one creek… Instead focus on the downstream use of all federal regulatory agencies and how they align within a Federal COVID compliance network… that’s the river.
Think about the Dept of Agriculture (SNAP/food stamps), the Dept. of Labor, the Dept of Education, the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), Housing and Urban Development, Health and Human Services, Dept of Labor, Dept of Energy and how they would join with the DoT to create the aggregate raging river of regulation.
Think about the federal government using mandates for enforced national COVID-19 compliance rules. Think about USDA (Dept of Agriculture) and OSHA federal inspections for social distancing (etc) in all businesses, not just restaurants.
Think about the COVID-19 regulatory and compliance system and what political beneficiaries stand to gain.
Think about the Dept of Education using COVID to restructure the way education is taught and the downstream regulations on charter schools and non-compliant educational systems that do not meet the ideological objectives of the master control plan.
Think about how the Dept. of Labor (complaint division) can be weaponized against political opposition based on arbitrary inspections under the guise of employee health and safety…. using federal COVID compliance rules.
Think about required days off for the entire employee base if a single infection is identified in the workplace. Paid days off…. funded by Federal Government. Think about how that changes the income dependency dynamic.
Think about the larger Green New Deal (goals and objectives), and then contrast those objectives while aligning an overlay map of how federal COVID mitigation rules can be applied as a back door to the EXACT SAME objective.
Far beyond masks…. Workspaces being forced to be redesigned. New rules on labor density. New rules on labor/manufacturing and office proximity. New rules on uniforms. New rules on hand-washing stations. New rules on sick pay, shift hours, time-off when a COVID infection is detected in the workplace.
Think about everything from rules on surfaces, to rules on packaging, to rules on ALL business operations as an outcome of federal regulatory policy under the guise of CVOID-19 mitigation. OSHA, Labor, Agriculture, Transportation, Energy, Education, Housing, Health and Human Services, and even federal building permits… the entire regulatory system and compliance network.
Think about Housing and Urban Development (HUD) having new rules about dwellings and complexes for housing grants. Population density; the need to move into the suburbs and the confiscation of private property to “ensure the common safety” of the citizens.
If you think this is fear-mongering, I want to to evaluate that cynicism while contemplating this recent example from California:
Think about those types of business regulations applied on a National level…. and then, as seen in prior Democrat administrations with IRS etc, think about them also being enforced through the prism of political affiliation.
Think about how states that refuse to participate will be cut off from federal grants and funding for college tuition, Medicare and/or medicaid reimbursement, etc. etc.
Think about what happens to Main Street USA?
Think about companies on the NASDAQ or national companies on the stock-market?
Think about how those USA-specific federal COVID compliance regulations apply when considering U.S. business operations -vs- just taking operations overseas without those worries.
Think about who in Washington DC then takes control of what types of business interests are allowed to operation…. who determines the winning and losing.
Think about how Federal COVID-19 regulations can be used to put the multinational corporate world back (the globalists) on their former financial pathways, even without TPP and TTIP trade deals.
[Every domestic regulation weaponized against Main Street USA is a win for the Wall Street multinationals.]
Think about how much China and Europe would love to see our economy knee-capped in a Biden regulatory stranglehold; essentially achieving the same objectives as the Paris Climate Treaty.
Think long and hard about how far the tentacles of achieving the Green New Deal can extend under the auspices of federal COVID-19 mitigation.
Remember, those who are working on this don’t care about the middle-class and they have not for decades. The visibility of the ‘rust belt’ is the reference. This is about government bureaucrats using their DC power-base to control trillions in economic value and sell their ability to influence the winners and losers to the highest foreign bidder.
Look at what blue states have already done to seize power and control. Now think about that same manipulative intent spread throughout the entire country by weaponizing federal agencies with advanced regulation.
That should start to frame the reference point going forward. Remember, within totalitarian states religion is a risk… the assembly for religious worship is always considered a risk to by those who demand control over free-thought and lives.
The national legislative priority will be entirely focused on retention of that power system by generating an entirely new form of congressional representation. New states, new senators, new election systems, and funding for the needs of the executive…. that will be the focus of the facilitating legislative branch.
Those behind the executive branch; those controlling Joe Biden; will harness and weaponize the power. The legislative leftists will attempt to ensure the new systems they create under the guise of COVID-19 are never in a position to be withdrawn.
Why? – Why all of this effort?… why such extremes?… Follow the money, it’s always about the money. The globalist ideology is worthless without money. Wall Street’s Rick Santelli knows, he’s watching the second deployment of an identical playbook.
So when your friends ask why, talk about ‘why‘. The weaponization of COVID is the ongoing crisis that will facilitate government solutions. As the American people resist the bait represented by the COVID crisis, those who need to weaponize it will keep turning up the pressure until they have full totalitarian control…
Despite the majority of American’s being happy about the U.S. energy independence created by President Trump, it is adverse to the interests of Wall Street and Big Government to lose justification for U.S. troops in the middle-east.
Remember, the vast majority of money into the bank accounts of politicians, their families and bureaucrats within the Deep State, comes from foreign governments.
From their DC perspective: all systems/processes that increase U.S. global influence are good; any policies/processes that reduce U.S. global influence are bad.
Rasmussen – “On his first day in the White House, President Joe Biden signed an executive order blocking further construction on the Keystone XL Pipeline project. Most voters disagree with Biden’s decision.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 36% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is a good idea to cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline that would transport oil from Canada to the U.S. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters say canceling the pipeline is a bad idea, and 13% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)” [source]
On day 1, Joe Biden has unilaterally eviscerated women’s competitive sports. According to the executive order any educational institution that receives federal funding must allow biologically-male athletes to compete individually, on teams, and reward scholarships.
Yes, that means U.S. Women’s soccer will now be played by men. Ridiculous.
(WHITE HOUSE) By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:
Section 1. Policy. Every person should be treated with respect and dignity and should be able to live without fear, no matter who they are or whom they love. Children should be able to learn without worrying about whether they will be denied access to the restroom, the locker room, or school sports. Adults should be able to earn a living and pursue a vocation knowing that they will not be fired, demoted, or mistreated because of whom they go home to or because how they dress does not conform to sex-based stereotypes. People should be able to access healthcare and secure a roof over their heads without being subjected to sex discrimination. All persons should receive equal treatment under the law, no matter their gender identity or sexual orientation. (read more)
QUESTION: You say that the Democratic Party is on the decline but it would appear to be the exact opposite. The GOP proved to be traitors when they turned against Trump, and many people I know have said they will never vote Republican again. Also, now that the Democrats are able to rig elections and get away with it this means that future elections will be like communist countries where they get 100% of the vote. The same is true if there is a third party because neither can they win a rigged election.
ANSWER: It may appear that way, but the Democrats are united only in their hatred of Republicans. They are deeply divided on issues even on climate. Nevertheless, Biden day one made it mandatory to wear masks in all federal buildings, and he immediately rejoined the United Nations. The trend is the trend. This is not my opinion. Each high is lower. Just look at the chart as if it were a market. If the Dow kept making lower highs since the Great Depression, you would not be investing in it and you would not call it a bull market.
The Democrats may seem to be in power, but that has dwindled to 50.4%. I fully agree that the Republicans under Mitch McConnel are trying to repudiate everything Trump stood for. He forgets that Trump did not start the anti-establishment movement. The people voted for him because it was a vote against the establishment – not necessarily for Trump as a person.
The Republicans will split and they will lose at least one-third of their support and as much as 70%. By the time we get to 2022, we may see a new 3rd party form and you will even have conservative Democrats abandoning the AOC climate extremists. Following the Paris Accord will cost so many jobs and unemployment will rise, thus even the Democrats will lose ground. So 2022 looks to be chaotic and that seems to be shaping up by our computer forecasting a Panic cycle in politics for 2022.
QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I grew up under communism, in Romania and now have been living in Canada for more than 20 years, moving here in my 30s. We considered ourselves so lucky to be living here till Trudeau took over the reins.
I’ve been following your post for a year now and I like your opinions, especially now when it’s hard to know whom to believe. My question is what to make with all this information? What is the solution to the agenda of WEF?
ANSWER: They will fail. However, the people are always sheep and this constantly encourages corruption in politics. They get away with taking $1000, then $10,000, and keep going into the millions. Suddenly people get mad and they do not understand. We have to let the dust settle. But throughout history, they will always claim to be the opposite of what they really are. The ANTIFA movement claim to be against fascists yet they want to silence all opposition precisely what fascist always do.
Just as communism collapsed because it is against human nature and cannot be sustained, this too shall pass. Dick Army was the House Majority Leader January 3, 1995 – January 3, 2003. I was trying to work on tax reform and reforming Social Security to make it into a wealth fund where the lower classes would earn from investment instead of forced to invest exclusively in government bonds. I was sitting in Dick’s office and he was in favor of the flat tax. He said to me, he could not support the retail sales tax because it would be impossible to repeal the income tax. He said since I knew cycles when the Democrats got back in, we would then have both. It was then and there I realized that all my efforts to help the country were meaningless. For he was absolutely correct. When the cycle changed, Marxism would be back with a vengeance.
Politics is the ETERNAL SEA for it is always changing. Their victory this moment will lead to their reckless management and their emotional effort to turn the world entirely upside down. This has indeed been a Marxist coup and at least you have the experience to see what is coming. Unfortunately, others are cheering their own demise. They have never lived under Marxism. Slowly, the trend will change bringing more and more to realize that all these cries of equality were also the rhetoric of Robespierre. He began the Reign of Terror to suppress those who opposed the revolution. He also seized the property of the church and executed priests as well as countless people. If you even ever said a favorable word about the king, you were executed.
He rejected all religion and started the calendar with year ONE marking the Revolution. The week became 10 days in order to eradicate Sunday and the 7th day of rest from the Bible. There was simply no tolerance of any opposition and the slightest thought of being against his revolution meant you were dead.
Unfortunately, we never learn from the past without experience. This is why history must repeat because it seems that those who have such hatred rise to the top.
QUESTION: You have had billions. Why did that not make you as insane as Gates, Soros, Zuckerberg, and Dorsey?
ANSWER: BigTech sees the power to overthrow the banks. They have promised worldwide that they want everyone in the banking system to end paper money, which is over 1 billion people (just read the IMF). Gates was raised and indoctrinated by his father that the world is doomed unless you somehow create mass genocide legally. Soros likes the control of Communism and thinks he can achieve world peace by creating one government, as was the case behind the Iron Curtain. He even helped round up Jews to be executed and has no problem living with that.
I really do not know the answer. Perhaps it was simply that my objective was to try to figure out how the world functioned rather than to try to reshape it into my personal ideal vision. Other than Soros, all the others made money from equity. They are not traders, so they never were humbled by the market forces. When you are a trader, yes, I was dealing with billions. But you have to separate that from reality. There were plenty of times I would do a few billion in trades that day and then go out to dinner, and the bill would be maybe $200. You separate the trading from the daily expenditure by not looking at it as money. I would just look at it as phone numbers.
I did an interview in Munich, Germany. I was asked how I could advise on trillions of dollars. I explained I never thought about how much I was dealing with. I just looked at what had to be done and did it. She explained I was the largest adviser in the world and that she could not find someone else who could do such a job at that size. They would think about the money and became too afraid to act. She told me she interviewed a top brain surgeon who had to retire. She said she discovered the same attitude. Once he realized that the slightest mistake would cause the patient not to talk or walk again, he could not do the job.
Trying to be objective, I mentally separated myself from the decision. When I look at Soros, I went up against him many times and saw that he was simply on board with everyone else. There was group trading, and they would assume that their size could force a result. I traded against the club all the time. That is why they hated me and accused me of manipulating the world, theorizing that I had greater influence than all their money combined. I understood how markets functioned, whereas they tried to make markets function as they desired.
From my perspective, Dorsey, Zuckerberg, and Gates simply made money from an invention. They lack total comprehension of society or the economy. With no connection to the real world, they simply have become egomaniacs whereby they are drunk with what they perceive is unlimited power. This is precisely the actions of Dorsey caught by Project Veritas on video.
Dorsey may be pretending he is trying to stop violence, but he is really doing this to be able to expand into banking. In censoring everyone like Hitler and Stalin, he is encouraging violence because that becomes the ONLY solution when (1) courts refuse to act, and (2) you suppress people controlling the press and even their ability to communicate. This is what I mean that they have ZERO understanding of history or what makes the world really function. They are inviting their own demise; you can bet they will all become targets by people who have lost everything and will lash out, as is always the case. There are over 300 million people out there.
COMMENT #1: I understand and appreciate your skepticism about conspiracies. However, before the covid attack and the sell off in the stock market last March, you did not believe in conspiracy theories at all. You thought the world was run by stupid people and they were incapable of doing anything like what we are witnessing. You commented many times your surprise at how well funded and organized this has been. I wished back then you were right. Now I hope your wrong again (about conspiracy). So maybe a little humble pie is in order the next time you say you don’t believe in conspiracies.
REPLY: No. There have always been conspiracies to try to do things. What I have said and it still holds today: no CONSPIRACY has ever SUCCEEDED. This is a clip from “The Forecaster.” I always traded against these people. I was asked to join many times. I have always refused. I was invited by Edmond Safra to the IMF dinner he put on in Washington renting the entire National Gallery. I was told by them, “Join us.” They had the IMF in their pocket. I said no, I advised the people to whom the IMF went to ask for money.
This has been a conspiracy that has been better funded than I expected. That is true. Mainly because it is a merger of Gates, Soros, and Schwab. Each had a different objective, but they agreed to combine. Like the Democrats. It is really a conglomeration of many groups from women to transsexuals and socialists all with only a common objective of hating Republicans. Individually, they have different goals.
They cannot create a conspiracy to manipulate a market. If they even could, then they would not blow up and constantly ask governments to bail them out. That alone proves my point — conspiracies do not succeed.
As for this elaborate conspiracy to change the world economy, they will destroy much of our world economy, inspire war, but their grand dream of forcing and controlling this Fourth Industrial Revolution will be transformed into dust. We will begin to witness its faults by 2022.
COMMENT#2: Where can we run to? Seriously. I think this is really the most important question now.
I can’t help but wonder what would happen if 80million Trump voters moved to Texas.
COMMENT #3: Hi Martin,
It is truly insightful, having watched the inauguration of Biden on the UK BBC1.
It is all hope and glory, patriotism, great times ahead etc…..presented by them.
Am seriously thinking of ‘Fucking off’ to another country as am getting older (46yrs).
Truthfully, am thinking Indonesia, despite their earthquake/volcano/ history.
Its time, for me and my closest, to move on. Am tired, as you are, of this bullshit.
Just wanna normal life!!!!!
Thanks for all you do…..you appear to be a normal guy, trustworthy et al, whilst mixing with the ‘average’ persons of this world.
You don’t need an ego trip, so am just telling you that I trust you and that you are a good guy (despite what I’ve read!!!)
As we say in the UK….
Cheers Mate, all the best
COMMENT #4: Thank you so much. We have some great pretenders here in the UK claiming they get calls from intelligence all night and they proclaimed Trump would arrest everyone. I cannot believe how many people believed this stuff. You are the only respectable voice in the extreme left and right confrontation.
REPLY: I understand this looks really depressing, like a violent storm about to strike. Capital will make its decision pro or con by February. There may yet be a rise in separatist movements. There is a lot up in the air. I am getting emails from around the world. I had to do a video interview this morning from Germany.
Brisbane has imposed a $50,000 fine for not wearing a mask. In Florida, we did not go insane. Most small businesses survived and we did not have draconian lockdowns. Florida has about 2 million more people than New York, and while New York reported 17,839 new cases, Florida had 15,445. The open policy in Florida has fewer COVID cases than New York, proving that the lockdowns have failed to work. Instead, lockdowns are destroying jobs and ensuring that there will be nothing to return to since the WHO is already telling people that 2021 will be WORSE than 2020! Even the number of people who have caught COVID in a restaurant is just 1.4% of the COVID cases. That does not justify destroying restaurants and society.
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