COMMENT: You were right Martin! Demonetization was one of the worst decisions by the Modi government, the country is now suffering from that…. economy has gone down, but the new govt will not admit it. They believe the Millenials are to blame!
REPLY: After nearly 40 years of dealing with governments throughout the world, I have yet to hear any government EVER admit blame for causing an event.
I was called in for research on the 1987 Crash as we had clients on the Commission. Not only did we forecast the crash to the day, but we came out on the day of the low and forecast new highs by 1989. The Energy models showed the move was over.
Despite all of that, I stressed that the entire crisis was set in motion by the formation of the G5 and their pronouncement that they “wanted” to see the dollar fall by 40% for trade purposes in 1985. The Brady Commission report went into detail about how the foreign exchange markets impacted the event. However, they would not blame the G5.
When Rubin started the same jawboning about the dollar, I wrote to him warning he would create another crash. They backed off.
QUESTION: Hi. Martin. I have read your blog for many years and I’m blown away about how much I have learned Question can you help explain how the European stock markets Like the day have risen to over 12000. With European interest rates falling.
ANSWER: Capital is beginning to move already. Europe is closing in and hunting taxes. The chaos of Brexit and punishing Britain rather than addressing the economic problems has really doomed Europe.
As you can see, the peak in the PE ratio took place at the LOW in 2009, not the high. When you enter these periods of uncertainty, interest rates, dividends, and expectations of profits no longer mean anything. The primary objective is to park money in a safe place where you get it back. Banks are questionable with bail-in policies and negative interest rates. Now even gold is being targeted. Where else to go but equities
QUESTION: Hi Marty… I’ve been reading your blog for several years now.
I’ve been trying to understand the basics about your reversal system is with no luck.
Yet I’ve been trading stocks with only simple trend lines for years using basic tech A.
PS I still don’t even understand how the Federal Reserve works either… they don’t teach you that stuff in high school!
Yes, I’ve watched every video or post on reversals on your site and not getting it. I know I’m not that smart but I’m not that dumb either!
Can you pretty please post a very clear layman’s chart using a stock or a commodity with prices like gold to show us dummies so we “GET IT”
A dumb Canuck
ANSWER: Look, the reversals are a black box and I keep it that way along with the Schema Frequencies. This is a physics solution to how the world ticks. It is not a simple moving average, stochastics, or one-dimensional formula. It is highly complex and many people have tried to reverse engineer it but have failed. They may think they have come close but they cannot account for the next number.
Traditionally, economists argue there is a business cycle, but nobody can forecast the cycle. Therefore, with tools of interest rates, taxes, and money supply, governments can manipulate the business cycle. The problem is that even Larry Summers admitted that he cannot forecast the economy. This stems from the problem of their failure to understand cyclical movement,to begin with. The Schema Frequencies resolve the complexity of cyclical movement.
The Energy indicator is against based upon physics and it exposes the true opposing forces at work irrespective of the superficial price levels. The key to this is looking for the divergence when prices are rising and Energy is declining. This is a warning signal that such a rally is NOT sustainable. Likewise, when prices are falling but Energy begins to rise, once more there is a divergence warning that the decline is losing energy and a low is near. Just look at this daily chart on gold. You can see the divergence as Energy peaked well in advance.
These indicators are not your standard variety of analysis. They are entirely beyond the one-dimensional analysis world for the markets are not only all connected globally, but the entire system is fractal. So we have a fractal relationship within each market and then a fractal relationship on a global perspective.
The models do all the calculations that are humanly impossible to carry out before a market even closes. It allows us to stand back and see the overview which then reveals the trends. Many have tried to prevent our forecasts. They have tried to ignore what this computer has been doing in hopes that I will die and that will be the end of it. I see this as a means to an end — to help society manage the business cycle without destroying our human rights and our freedom. I have to protect this because there are those who would use it behind the curtain for personal gain against the world.
Sometimes in life, we stumble upon something like the discovery of penicillin. It has saved lives. People just accept that and do not need to know the formula behind it.
A man has driven a vehicle through the front doors of Trump Plaza New Rochelle in New Rochelle New York. There are injuries from people who were in/near the lobby of the building.
Details are sketchy, but according to one report: “Workers at Trump Plaza New Rochelle say after car plowed into lobby, male driver got out and took a seat on a sofa. Said nothing. Several injuries but none are life threatening.”
Elizabeth Warren is the Democrat primary candidate with momentum. While the top five names have not changed, the support is firming up. Joe Biden remains at the top of the poll with 31 percent. Elizabeth Warren has now surged to second with 25 percent; and it appears most of angry Sanders loss in support has gone to ‘I’ma-git-me-a-beer‘ Warren.
NBC/WSJ Poll: Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, holding distinctly different advantages, have separated themselves from the crowded Democratic presidential field, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows.
In the survey, conducted after the third in the Democratic Party’s series of debate, the former vice president draws 31% compared to 25% for the Massachusetts senator. At 14%, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders trails Warren by a double-digit margin while 15 other candidates receive support of 7% or less.
Biden builds his edge on dominance among three chunks of Democratic primary voters. He commands 49% among African-Americans, 46% among senior citizens, and 42% among moderate and conservative Democrats.
But after months of steady progress, Warren boasts formidable strengths of her own. She leads Biden by roughly two-to-one among liberals and Democrats under 35, breaks even among whites, and holds a double-digit edge among those seeking large-scale change in the post-Trump era. That last group represents a majority of the Democratic electorate. (more)
Pete Buttigieg remains at 7% support. Kamala Harris drops to 5%. Andrew Yang has ticked up to 4%. Senators Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar hold 2%. Seven others: O’Rourke, Delaney, Gabbard, Steyer, Bennet, de Blasio, and Castro, draw just 1%.
Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal. However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.
Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations. Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
As we previously pointed out, the October 21st election in Canada will be an influence.
Justin Trudeau made an agreement with Pelosi to stop the Canadian Parliament from considering ratification. If Trudeau loses the election, his replacement will likely move more quickly to ratify the USMCA, this will be a defeat for Pelosi. However, if Trudeau wins, he will help keep the pressure off Pelosi by simultaneously stalling ratification in Canada.
This dynamic has yet to play out.
Senator Jodi Ernst, a member of GOPe leadership, appears to be sending the message that USMCA will not pass until after the 2020 presidential election. Ernst is a Decepticon in AG clothing; but generally, the outlook of McConnell, Cornyn, Thune and Ernst are more accurate.
The U.S. multinationals on Wall Street do not want the USMCA to pass because they don’t want President Trump to have leverage that allows him to continue the fight against China and the EU. It is a simple dynamic, USMCA ratification makes the Wall Street prior investments in China worth less.
The strategy to deal with each of the three primary negative trade elements (China, NAFTA, and the EU) is clear within President Trump’s trade reset.
In the big picture President Donald Trump has purposefully stalled the process of supply chain globalization and cheap labor evaluation. Trump is resetting global manufacturing supply chains, with U.S. incentives for relocation. This is bringing wealth and jobs back into the United States (and North America).
In essence Titan Trump is engaged in a process of: (a) repatriating wealth (trade policy); (b) blocking exfiltration of wealth (main street policy); (c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and (d) dismantling the post WWII Marshall plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).
In all of these efforts U.S. multinational corporations, big companies on Wall St, are heavily opposed to President Trump because they have invested in those overseas operations. Those companies facilitated the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs.
There is also now a clear alignment between those Wall Street multinationals, and democrats like Nancy Pelosi. Wall Street’s ability to pay Pelosi and political leadership to protect their multinational interests; in combination with corporate promises of funding to Pelosi’s party; has created the unholy alliance of united interests.
That’s why Nancy Pelosi instructed Justin Trudeau to stall the Canadian ratification of the USMCA. That’s the motive behind why Pelosi is working to stall, perhaps even eliminate, the USMCA ratification in the House. This is also why Pelosi reacted so quickly to the framework of a deal between President Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
It is a political strategy and calculation for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to attempt to sink the U.S. Main Street economy. Weakening Trump’s China confrontation; blocking the USMCA; and impeding a trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K. are part of that calculation.
This is why we are seeing Wall Street, and the media pundits therein, openly cheering for an economic recession for exactly the same purpose.
The aligned interests of Wall Street, media pundits and Democrats are all contingent upon harming the U.S. economy. That is how severely ideological modern democrats are.
The democrats are willing to destroy Main Street in order to retain power.
There are trillions at stake.
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