Category The Eastern Alliance

Sep 11 2023

Sunday Talks, G20 Joint Agreement Doesn’t Condemn Russia, and Secretary Blinken Flinches: “Where lines are going to be drawn is going to be up to Ukrainians”…


Posted originally on the CTH on September 10, 2023 | Sundance 

With the BRICS alliance expanding, seven members of the previously existing G20 trade group are now members of the BRICS group.  The influence of the G20 is diminishing and the BRICS group is gaining strength.  This is the context for the modern era geopolitical dynamic that is taking place.

The G20 is ideologically anchored by the U.S. and EU as part of the western alliance.  However, the BRICS group have started to cleave away from the “western worldview” specifically on the issue of energy development.  We have talked about this dynamic quite a bit.

As a result of the increased influence of the BRICS group, specifically as an outcome of the U.S, EU and Australian weakening as a result of fundamentally changing their energy use at the altar of climate change, the western alliance is losing economic strength, and the BRICS team are gaining strength.  The addition of Saudi Arabia to the BRICS team has boosted the BRICS control of traditional energy products.

The global shift in power is happening very fast as the climate change agenda is pushed by the U.S, EU and Canada.  Issues that impact the G20 are no longer unilaterally controlled by a singular worldview.  Now inside the G20 there are competing interests as a global realignment takes shape.

Within this dynamic, the attendees of the G20 summit were unable to construct a joint declaration that condemns Russia’s activity in Ukraine.  Instead, the group had to modify their language to get all of the G20 nations, including Russia, to agree to the statement.   China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Argentina are in alignment with the worldview of Russia.  Although the Russia allies dislike the hostilities, there is a general understanding that Russia was being threatened by the U.S. pushing NATO expansion.  Actions have consequences, and the leadership of the BRICS+ group align sympathetically with the justification that Russia presented.

Into this mix of disparate interests, the G20 summit in India was held, and for the first time the Western Alliance within the G20 seemed to recognize things had fundamentally changed.   This was the first time the G20 group was together since Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and several other nations began talking to each other about a new economic landscape built on the global energy cleaving.

This also represented the first time Joe Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken were able to gauge how much American influence has been changed.  The reality is starting to hit, and the reality is that America is losing power globally – yet retaining power amid a much smaller network of ideologically aligned western nations.

Using the Ukraine and Russia conflict as an example for what this new reality looks like, for the first time today US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken alluded in his remarks to ABC News that new borders were likely to be drawn in Ukraine, if/when discussions and negotiations begin between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.

WATCH the moment at 3:36, …”where exactly this [conflict] settles, where lines are going to be drawn, that is going to be up to Ukrainians.”

THAT, is a major shift in the position of the Biden administration.

Aug 25 2023

BRICS Economic Bloc Expands Adding Iran, Argentina, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Ethiopia During Summit


Posted originally on the CTH on August 24, 2023 | Sundance 

The original BRICS economic alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has expanded today.  During the summit held in South Africa, the group which is home to about 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of global gross domestic product, voted to accept the applications of Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia.

What we see forming now is further evidence of the great energy cleaving.  As most western nations chase the World Economic Forum’s priority around ‘climate change’, the BRICS alliance hedges for more traditional energy sources (oil, natural gas, coal).  China will benefit the most as the Western industrial economies will not be able to compete in a global market using windmills and solar panels.

The western alliance (yellow) will be chasing climate change energy policy to power their economies.  The rest of the world (grey) will be using traditional and more efficient energy development.  The global cleaving around energy use would be complete.

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

(New York Times) […] On Thursday, the bloc revealed its decision, adding six new countries, including the staunchly anti-Western Iran, in an apparent victory for Beijing.

The inclusion of Tehran tilts the bloc more in opposition to China’s chief rival, the United States, and signals that Chinese pressure largely outweighed the qualms of India and Brazil, which want to maintain friendly ties with the West.

“Iran, obviously, is a complicated choice,” said Cobus van Staden, a researcher with the China Global South Project. “I can imagine that some of the other members worry that it might increase geopolitical tensions with Western powers, which I think it kind of inevitably would.”

The addition of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia gives the group more financial heft. It also bolsters Beijing’s bid to demonstrate to the world that it has growing support for its agenda despite having alienated many countries in the developed world over its ties to Russia.

“This membership expansion is historic,” China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, said on Thursday at the end of the meeting. “It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and cooperation for the broader developing world.”

China did not get everything it wanted, however. It had pushed for Indonesia to be invited to the group. The reason for Indonesia’s omission was not immediately clear.

Still, the appearance of a success for China may turn out to be the most significant takeaway from the summit, which failed to deliver on the long-stated goal of establishing a BRICS currency to rival the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. The group instead encouraged members to use local currencies in trade. (read more)

The currency issue is likely to be a more complex undertaking as it does not make sense to establish trade in an alternative currency until the arrival of the Central Bank Digital Currencies.   The most likely path for global energy trade will be in the form of a digital currency exchange amid the BRICS+ group.

More than 40 additional countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials, and 22 have formally asked to be admitted.

Everything inside this dynamic appears structurally centered on the full cleaving of the energy sector into two bipolar worlds. One economic system focused on green energy policy, the other economic system working via traditional energy development.

Aug 10 2023

Western Sanctions Not Impacting Russian Economy as Much as Expected


Posted originally on the CTH on August 9, 2023 | Sundance 

I have been researching the MACRO economic dynamic in Russia quite deeply for the past six months.  Essentially looking to discover not only what impact the western imposed sanctions might be having, but more broadly looking to see what happens to self-sustainability when essentially locked out from the world of commercial imports.

The research is fascinating, not simply because it is a unique opportunity, but also because national economic issues play a big role in the overall social dynamic.  That said, I can say the social aspect is stunningly more interesting than the data driven outcomes.  When you really dig deep into actual life of the ordinary people in Russia, far away from the geopolitical contexts, you get an entirely different perspective.  My worldview of the average Russian person/family has completely changed.

There is a really good thread on how the western sanctions against Russia are having a much lesser impact than initially thought [SEE HERE].  On the economic side, one thing I would point to is how the economy is essentially an outcome of two facets: (1) the internal production strength, and (2) the service side of the ledger.

[READ HERE]

The author makes the accurate point that from a production side perspective, Russia actually has a larger economy now than Germany, the largest EU nation.  The cause for this is “autarchy” or self-sufficiency.  Indeed, as the timeline of the sanctions closes in on the second year completing, the Russian production economy is even stronger than when the sanctions began.  Quite simply, they are making even more of their own goods now.

The sanctions hit what would typically fall into the service side of the economy, as well as financial and economic roadblocks.  However, that aspect of the Russian economy was much smaller than most suspected and there were sanctions going back to 2014 which made the outcome of the 2022 western imposed restrictions less impactful.

I will be finishing my review of the economic data once Q3 is over, that will give me an entire year of data to share.  However, the social stuff is even more fascinating.

I have a new understanding of why former NSA contractor Edward Snowden was so comfortable using Russia as the place to hide after his release of classified intelligence showing how the U.S. government was spying on Americans via social media and metadata collection.

I have mostly been looking at three areas in Western Russia.  Kazan, Moscow and St Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).  Of the three generally large metropolitan areas, St Petersburg is by far the most interesting.  It’s beautiful there and the city is alive and vibrant.

In many ways you might compare Russia in 2023 to the USA in/around 1988.  Life is just not complicated and far more socially engaged.

I’ll have more on this later, but if you are ever bored check out the Russian YouTubers who livestream broadcast “a day-in-the-life” type of activity.  The infrastructure is in generally good repair, the people seem warm and friendly and there is a strong social value placed on family and kids.

There are certainly negatives and the cultural dynamic of the former USSR is still evident.  Technologically they are somewhat behind in some details, but the overall cohesion of their value system is something I did not fully appreciate until I started down this road of research.

I can see why the average Russian could be wide-eyed during a visit to the USA and fascinated with the overall quality of life that might be considered indulgent.  However, I can also see how reciprocally the average American could be wide-eyed and smiling at the overall sense of the Russian people.

Strip out the politics, and we are all much more similar than we are different.

Apr 24 2023

Former CIA Director Admits Biden Created the Russian Disinformation Hoax


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Apr 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Biden’s camp completely interfered in the 2020 US Presidential Election by hiding Hunter’s illegal business dealing through bribes and coercion. The House Judiciary Committee released a letter addressed to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that revealed Biden and Blinken deliberately created the story that Hunter’s “laptop from hell” was “Russian disinformation” in order to help him steal the election.

When will the people say that they have had enough? How could they arrest a former president for an affair when the current president and his crime family have actively engaged in countless international criminal activities. CIA director Mike Morell ADMITTED that 51 members of the intelligence community signed a letter declaring the laptop was “Russian disinformation” act the request of the Biden Administration. This propaganda spread to reporters of prominent newspapers, social media platforms, and government officials across the US. The FBI completely dropped their investigation after the laptop was handed over to them and wiped clean from the internet.

The Biden Administration reached out to The Post after they received information that Hunter introduced his dad to his Ukrainian business partners. Morrell said he did it to “help Vice President Biden … because I wanted him to win the election.”

Joe Biden referenced this signed letter during a debate against Trump on October 22, lying to the American public weeks before the election. Joe insisted he never spoke to Hunter about his business dealings when he was in on it the whole time.

Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio), chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence sent a letter to Blinken letting him know that the investigation is back on.

“We are examining the origins of the infamous public statement signed by 51 former intelligence officials that falsely discredited a New York Post story regarding Hunter Biden’s laptop as supposed Russian disinformation.

Subsequent reporting revealed that the New York Post story was not, as the public statement claimed and then-Vice President Biden parroted, part of a ‘Russian information operation.’

This revelation nearly two years after the fact, however, was little consolation.

The concerted efforts to dismiss the serious allegations in the Post’s reporting and to suppress any discussion of the story played a substantial role in the 2020 election.”

Joe Biden is a liar who will go down in history as the worst president in American history. He deceived the American people countless times and has done everything in his power to ruin our economy, values, and way of life. Arrest all 51 people who signed that letter and throw everyone related to the Biden crime family in jail – let us see how far the corruption goes.

Apr 24 2023

Stoltenberg: Ukraine’s Rightful Place is in NATO


Armstrong Economics Blog/War We-Posted Apr 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that there would be a global world war on Friday when he announced that Ukraine will be invited to join NATO. Stoltenberg, who recently took a trip to Ukraine to show his full support, said that Ukraine will be permitted to join after the war ends. Zelensky is begging for NATO to permit Ukraine to join NATO immediately.

At a joint news conference in Kyiv, Zelensky and Stoltenberg spoke on NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine. “Over the years, NATO Allies have provided training for tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers. And since last February, NATO Allies have delivered more than 150 billion euros of support, including 65 billion euros of military aid,” Stoltenberg said. “Let me be clear: Ukraine’s rightful place is in the Euro-Atlantic family. Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO. And over time, our support will help you make this possible.” He said their approach will take multiple years to “ensure full interoperability with the Alliance.”

Stoltenberg went on to explain why NATO was helping an unaffiliated nation. He hit on every trick in the book, from it being “morally right” to demonizing the head of state (Putin) as if removing him could solve this crisis:

“I expect the NATO Allies to do so both because it’s the morally right thing to do. A sovereign independent nation in Europe, Ukraine has been attacked, as a victim of a brutal war of aggression and therefore it's Ukraine's right to defend itself and it's our right to support Ukraine in upholding the right of self defense, a right which is enshrined in the UN Charter but it's also in our self-interest. Because if President Putin wins it will make the world more dangerous and us more vulnerable, because then the message is that when authoritarian powers, like Russia, like President Putin uses forces, they get what they want. So it's in our security interest, it's in the security interest of NATO Allies to support Ukraine.”

Zelensky said, per usual, that the efforts of the West have not been enough. “There is not a single objective barrier to the political decision to invite Ukraine into the alliance and now, when most people in NATO countries and the majority of Ukrainians support NATO accession, is the time for the corresponding decisions,” the comedian who is running a country said.

If Ukraine joins NATO, World War III will begin immediately. Stoltenberg is buying time, as they did with the fake Minsk Agreements. NATO is afraid that Hungary and Turkey will turn away from the alliance if Ukraine is openly admitted. The comment section on the video I posted above shows how the public does not understand what is happening. People are cheering and saying Zelensky should win the Nobel PEACE Prize when he has turned down every olive branch Moscow attempted to extend. All these people want is war and they think of nothing else. Ukraine is nothing more than cannon fodder to them and the latest plot for the neocons to conquer Russia.

Apr 17 2023

Le Pen Criticizes Meloni – Encourages France to Leave NATO


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

“I’m not Meloni’s twin sister, I remain faithful to Salvini,” French politician Marine Le Pen said in regard to the Italian PM. Le Pen condemned Italy’s Meloni for supporting NATO and the EU, and while she condemns Russia’s actions in Ukraine, she does not believe that the proxy war should continue. Le Pen said that European countries should remain “Eurosceptic” as there is clearly a larger agenda at play that does not consider individual nations.

She also said that she is convinced France should leave NATO immediately and cease all weapon exports to Ukraine. Why?

“I would do everything possible for France to promote a peaceful resolution of the conflict. For one simple reason: I don't see any other valid solutions.” “Or Russia – continues Le Pen – wins the war, and it would be catastrophic because all the countries that have a territorial conflict will think they can solve it with weapons. Either Ukraine wins, and this would mean that NATO has entered the conflict, and thus the beginning of the Third World War. It doesn't seem like a happy prospect to me. Or, we will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and then we will find ourselves facing a new Hundred Years War which, given the human losses, would be a tragedy.”

This is the exact problem. No one is going to “win” this war and World War III is imminent as NATO continues to embed itself in the conflict. All NATO leaders are abandoning their domestic policies in favor of an international one that does not benefit their respective countries in any way. This entire proxy war the entire world is now fighting is merely a ploy to eliminate Russia and end fossil fuel production. I discuss these topics in depth in my book, “The Plot to Seize Russia,” which my publisher is currently working on completing. I will let everyone know once the book is available for purchase in the coming weeks.

Apr 11 2023

Treasury Officials Planning EU and Central Asia Extortion Trip to Target Countries Evading Western Sanctions Against Russia


Posted originally on the CTH on April 10, 2023 | Sundance 

The United States Treasury Dept is planning to send officials to key parts of the globe to act as enforcers for western sanctions against Russia. Essentially, it’s a blackmail and extortion tour, where Liz Rosenberg and Brian Nelson will visit non-compliant nations and central Western banking hubs to threaten foreign nations against continued noncompliance.

Whether any nation complies with the pressure campaign threats is still unknown. However, against the backdrop of various geopolitical alliances now cleaving the global economy, and with a larger network of non-western nations now forming their own trade partnerships without regard for Washington DC opinion, the effort to draw “with us” or “against us” lines could backfire.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Top sanctions officials from the U.S. Treasury Department plan special international trips this month to pressure firms and countries still doing business with Russia to cut off financial ties because of the war on Ukraine.

The message is that those working with Russia’s government must decide:

1. Continue to provide Moscow with material support or

2. Keep doing business with countries that represent 50 percent of the global economy.

Those are the choices to be laid out, senior Treasury officials told reporters on a call Friday. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the travel plans.

Treasury officials Liz Rosenberg and Brian Nelson — specialists in sanctions and terrorist financing — will travel to Europe this month to meet with leaders of financial institutions in Switzerland, Italy and Germany. They plan to share intelligence on potential sanctions evaders and to warn of the potential penalties for failure to comply with international sanctions.

Rosenberg will also make a stop in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan to urge the country’s private businesses not to provide material or intelligence support to the Kremlin. Earlier this year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan to pledge U.S. support for its independence and to stress the importance of respect for “sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.” (read more)

Nice country you got there…. it’d be a shame if anything happened to it.

Apr 4 2023

The End of the Petrodollar?


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Another oil deal has been initiated without the use of the dollar. The India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that their latest trade deal with Malaysia would be settled in Indian rupees. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the formal statement noted.

Indian has benefitted from the West’s distraction from the Ukraine war. The RBI is allowing 18 counties to open Vostro accounts and has been attracting new deals in trade and manufacturing. New Delhi and Moscow have strengthened their relationship as India is not imposing sanctions.  The Indian Commerce Ministry said its five-year plan is to “encourage” the use of the rupee on an international scale, while also planning to expand exports $2 trillion by 2030. Trading in rupees will also allow India to save on conversion spreads and limit the country’s dependence on the volatile dollar.

The BRICs treaty (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) remains strong and oil giants Saudi Arabia and Iran would like to join the partnership. The Saudis stated at the beginning of the year that they were open to settling trade in currencies other than the USD. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan said during Davos. As we have seen in recent months, Saudi Arabia is aligning itself with China over the US.

The Vietnam war and other government missteps made it impossible for the US to maintain the fixed price of gold established under Bretton Woods. The USD relative to gold fell as the supply of dollars grew, pushing Nixon to abandon the Bretton Woods system entirely. US government debt was rapidly rising as confidence in the dollar plummeted. America needed an enticing way to sell its debt, and that was when Nixon convinced Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, to purchase Treasurys in dollars in exchange for military aid. Hence the “petrodollar” was born. The creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) only further enhanced the dollar’s dominance in energy purchases.

Here we are yet again amid another war and a high budget deficit. The Saudis no longer need protection from America, and siding with Western interests would be a deterrent to its international deals with countries in the BRICs alliance and some in the OPEC+. Despite the green agenda, the world cannot operate without oil. The major oil exporters are now aligning and cutting out the US as their middleman.

Mar 30 2023

Meanwhile, The Petrodollar Just Got Smaller Today as The First LNG Shipment Between UAE and France Is Traded in Yuan


Posted originally on the CTH on March 29, 2023 | Sundance 

Two major energy trade developments today highlight how the Western Alliance is quickly losing a grip on the world energy market, as an alliance between China, Russia, Iran and the Middle East Gulf Cooperation Council starts to take shape with actual trade exchanges that are not in dollars.

Last year, in response to big panda’s own interest and seeking to exploit two western alliance self-created weaknesses; (1) sanctions against Russia and (2) weakened investment in LNG production; China spearheaded the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.

The exchange was aimed at group purchasing services for liquefied natural gas (LNG) though the use of the yuan to replace the dollar.  Essentially, team Gray operating without the global trading system of team Yellow (map).  The Shanghai exchange allows purchases of LNG portions by small and medium-sized buyers in yuan.

Today, CHINESE national oil company CNOOC and France’s TotalEnergies have completed China’s first yuan-settled liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade through the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange, the exchange said on Tuesday (Mar 28).

Approximately 65,000 tonnes of LNG imported from the UAE changed hands in the trade, it said in a statement. TotalEnergies confirmed to Reuters that the transaction involved LNG imported from the UAE but did not comment further. (read more)

This exchange between the UAE and France is taking place without dollars. If the process continues the dollar weakens.  In the geopolitical world of currency valuations and trade, this might be considered the Archduke Ferdinand moment for the end of the petrodollar.  The question will become, can they grow this process with OPEC+ support and begin eventually trading oil in yuan?

A second energy targeted development comes from a shipment of Russian diesel fuel into Mexico.  The raw material was: (A) sold at an originating discount; and (B) presumably refined in Spain, making it exempt from the current energy embargo against Russia.

(READ ARTICLE) 

Mar 23 2023

Lord, what fools these Ukrainians Be!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Mar 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I get hate mail from Ukrainian Nazis routinely now. They of course deny there are any Nazis ever. Yesterday it was “You are definitely on the wrong side of history” and of course calling all Russians “scum” while Ukraine walks on water and is so honorable it makes me sick. Here we have Zelensky bragging about how Ukraine will be the biggest bonanza in European history. As for the American “titans” lobbying for more destruction and death so they can make money, I can only warn them – what goes around comes around. They have no problem advocating drafting your children to die on Ukrainian territory for their lucrative construction projects.

Sorry – I only wish them what they wish to put others through for their profits and bottom line, When this is done, they will probably also flee to Dubai like Halliburton for the Iraq War to avoid American subpoenas. So jump up and down cheering war for dollars. I for one will not invest 1 cent in any company joining Ukraine. I lost most of my high school friends for Vietnam and their profits back then. Screw you and your manipulation of human lives for profit.

And as for Ukrainians, how blind do you have to be not to see the real enemy in home-grown?