Posted originally on Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
President Trump’s announcement that he wants to push the U.S. defense budget to $1.5 trillion in 2027 is being framed as a necessary response to “very troubled and dangerous times” and a way to build what he calls a “Dream Military.” He claims that tariff revenues generated by his trade policies can help fund the increase and even allow for debt reduction while maintaining economic growth. There is a reason that Washington wants to increase its budget drastically, and the timing aligns perfectly with our computer model.
The proposal represents a roughly 50% increase from the $901 billion defense budget approved for 2026. The massive increase in funding represents a country preparing for a major geopolitical event. America stands alone. It can no longer trust the neocons in NATO, besides, America was the one primarily funding the organization. All of America’s allies are on the fence in terms of continued support, with the majority showing intense disapproval for recent military ventures.
Europe’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war cannot be ignored. Protests have erupted in France and Germany to declare that the people do not wish to die for Ukraine, but they have no say. The EU is run by neocons who are eagerly awaiting their turn to enter the conflict directly. China, the Middle East, South America, and Europe—conflicts are emerging in every corner of the globe, and unsurprisingly, America has been at the forefront.
An additional $500 million ensures the United States retains its reputation for having the most advanced military in the world, one would hope, but Chinahas been rapidly advancing its military capabilities in preparation for a grand-scale conflict. Russia has been testing nuclear missiles, some powerful enough to create toxic radioactive tsunami waves that can wipe cities off the map.
We are approaching a critical turning point in the Economic Confidence Model. Confidence will continue to decline as war nears, and capital will continue to seek refuge in private assets. When confidence declines, politicians turn to external enemies to justify internal failures. War becomes a tool to distract from fiscal mismanagement and to consolidate power. The 2026 panic cycle aligns with a historic pattern in which sovereign debt crises and geopolitical conflict converge. This is not the beginning of war; it is the escalation phase.
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT:
We had a similar referendum past November initiated by the young extreme leftists for a 50% (!) inheritance tax for wealthy above $50m – despite the fact that we pay already a wealth tax every year!
Well Swiss people realised that the billionaires have feets and can walk away similar to what you write in the California case:
Some 84.1% of Swiss voters said no to the civic duty proposal, while 78.3% rejected the inheritance tax initiative.
REPLY:
Switzerland became wealthy precisely because it respected property rights, capital mobility, and legal stability. The moment you threaten those pillars, the entire foundation collapses. The nation caved to the European Union in 2015 and abolished banking secrecy, the primary reason that people chose to keep capital in Switzerland. Switzerland abandoned its neutrality stance on war for the European Union, but internally, politicians are looking to shake down citizens for money as their own policies have caused capital to flee.
In November, radical leftist groups pushed not one but two initiatives that reflected the same ideological fantasy now sweeping California, New York, and Brussels. One proposal demanded a 50% inheritance tax on fortunes above CHF 50 million, while Switzerland already imposes a wealth tax every single year. The other initiative framed redistribution as a so-called “civic duty,” attempting to dress up confiscation as morality. More than 84% of Swiss voters rejected the civic duty proposal, and over 78% rejected the inheritance tax.
Wealth taxes merely shrink the tax base, reduce reinvestment, and push entrepreneurs offshore. Inheritance taxes punish saving or building something intended to last beyond a lifetime. Switzerland currently has a decentralized inheritance tax system that attracts the wealthy. The nation has already lost its destination for capital by handing over all banking information to centralized governments. Adolf Hitler deemed it illegal for Germans to store money outside the country, leading the way to Swiss banking. Decades later, centralized governments deem it illegal to store money anywhere that they cannot track and tax it. Christine Lagarde began the SWIFT confiscation when she was the head of the IMF. Lagarde threatened all tax havens to turn over accounts or be removed from SWIFT. Not even Hitler violated the sovereignty of Switzerland where those in government today are far more ruthless and threaten other nations with ultimatums.
Why would the government be entitled to half of someone’s fortune? The government collects its share when you earn your wealth. They tax the assets you hold, tax capital once realized, levy your property annually, and then, even in death, the government demands more. Family businesses cannot operate long-term under these conditions, and to the government’s advantage, families cannot grow in power. Inheritance taxes are not designed to fund the government; rather, they are intended to prevent intergenerational wealth transfer and keep citizens dependent on the state.
Switzerland has begun phasing in the global minimum tax rate of 15% for multinational enterprises with revenues exceeding 750 million euros. A vote will be held this year to determine whether married couples should be taxed independently. VAT tax will be expanded to online digital services such as streaming platforms. Governments are assessing every possible angle to steal from citizens. The world will witness higher tax rates and excessive authoritarian controls on capital as we move toward the end of the current cycle.
Great Britain has caved to Islamist radicals to such an extreme extent that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced it must limit its funding for universities in the United Kingdom. The Muslim Brotherhood is active in the UK as the government refuses to ban the radical group. The UAE is legitimately concerned that young men will go abroad to the UK and return with radicalized, jihadist values.
The Under the Terrorism Act (2000) states that organizations can be banned if they are “concerned in terrorism.” A 2015 review found that the Muslim Brotherhood has an “ambiguous relationship with violent extremism,” meaning that the group as a whole cannot be disbanded. “The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism,” former PM David Cameron stated, with “possible” being the keyword. The UK decided to merely monitor the group despite known ties to terrorism. “Certain factions of the Muslim Brotherhood maintain a notably unclear relationship with violent extremism. Both as a doctrine and as a network, it has served as a pathway for some individuals and groups that have subsequently participated in violence and terrorism,” Cameron later said.
The joke Vance made about Britain being the first Islamist country to have a nuclear weapon was close to the truth. The sophisticated Muslim countries have long criticised the form of Islam we allow. Now they won’t send their kids to uni here in case they come back as terrorists. https://t.co/AQisFoxuLapic.twitter.com/sQMur8EvMV
The UAE, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia banned the Muslim Brotherhood due to its threat to regional stability. Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and other well-known terrorists were radicalized in their youth by the Brotherhood. The group has openly funded Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Hamas. Its sole purpose is to provide a bridge for young Islamists to integrate into jihadist groups.
Between 2023-2024, 70 students at UK universities were reported to the Prevent Deradicalisation Programme due to ties to “Islamist radicalization.” As such, the UAE will no longer recognize degrees from unapproved universities, limiting the list of potential schools for Emiratis. Abu Dhabi determined British universities needed to be completely excluded from state scholarships.
How could this happen in the UK? The global caliphate is seemingly opening headquarters in London where the government permits a “moral collapse,” as Nigel Farage has stated. “If you want to destroy the Muslim Brotherhood, you have to start in London,” Farage declared.Posted Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong
Posted originally on Jan 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The Department of Justice has opened a CRIMINAL investigation against Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve. I have totally disagreed with trump on interest rates and he assumes that the Fed can just lower rates counter-trend to the world economy. I understand he is acting on what was taught in school under Keynesian Economics. But that has totally failed and even Keynes admitted before he died that he was wrong.
Using the Department of Just as the Biden Administration did against him is one thing when we are looking at the attempt by the Neocons to prevent him from office with the outrageous Russia Gate that they totally manufactured. But to allow the Department of Justice to use the criminal law to get interest rates lower is a new low. Powell stated:
“Those are pretexts,” Powell said. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.”
It was 75 years ago when President Truman sought to intimidate the Fed to cap interest rates because he wanted to wage war in Korea. It did not work. If Trump thinks he can replace Powell with a chimpanzee who does whatever he says, we are in for a real crisis post-2027. Jerome Powell’s current term as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ends on May 15th, 2026. The computer has been showing a sharp rise in volatility post May 2026. Trump will be confronted with the free market which he cannot control.
Posted originally on CTH on January 12, 2026 | Sundance
President Trump holds an impromptu press briefing flying back to Washington DC.
TOPICS: Iran protests, Response to Iran actions, You go to Venezuela? Meet with Delcy Rodriguez? When meet with Machado? Oil company commitments, Guarantees for oil companies, Deal with Cuba, Oil tankers and Cuba, Send Starlink to Iran? (DT: Going to call Elon Musk) Iran retaliate? Machado meeting Q2, Gaza Board of Peace. Greenland, Greenland and NATO, Pull USA out of NATO? Offer to Greenland? UK, Germany & Greenland, Put more bases in Greenland?
TOPICS (Cont.): Immunity for Minn ICE officer, Should ICE have immunity? Deadly force (ICE), You going to Detroit, Bill in the Senate, Object at Palm Beach Airport, Message to Iranian people, Iran opposition leaders, Melania’s film, Melania film premiere at TKC. Mortgage bond purchases, Credit card interest rates, Negotiate with Iran? (DT: They called), Your DC golf club.
Posted originally on CTH on January 11, 2026 | Sundance
Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Kirsti Noem appears on CNN to discuss the Minneapolis ICE shooting and the “domestic terrorism” that is taking place against Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.
Within the interview Secretary Noem emphasizes the activists working to disrupt federal ICE officials are conducting domestic terrorist operations. The leftist media are going bananas over Noem’s description of the anarchists’ activity.
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Secretary Noem also appeared on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to answer questions about threats of impeachment.
Posted originally on CTH on January 11, 2026 | Sundance
Energy Secretary Chris Wright appears on Face the Nation to discuss the current and future plans for oil production in Venezuela, while explaining how the current mechanism to sell the oil is operating.
[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: This morning, President Trump vowed that Venezuela now has the military protection of the US. This comes just one week after he said the US would run that country. Meanwhile, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is expected to travel to Washington to meet with President Trump this week. For his part, Mr. Trump and his team met with dozens of US oil executives late last week, urging them to commit $100 billion to boost oil production there. Joining us now to discuss it all is the United States Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, good to have you here in person.
SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: Thanks for having me, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Before I ask you about Venezuela, very quickly, these protests in Iran, not this country reliant on oil to keep its government-controlled economy afloat. The President has been briefed on military options. What is the US willing to do to help?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Certainly the President has been very outspoken about wanting to have freedom and rule of law and capitalism and great relations with the United States return. So we’ll see. I think his moral support has been strong. Certainly, he’s taken a strong stance against the mullahs in Iran in disabling their nuclear program. I think the people in Iran are rising up because they feel there’s a strong America that has their back. I won’t go into the specifics there, but we wish them well, and we’d love to see a free and democratic Iran again.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Will there be more interdictions of vessels carrying Iranian oil? Any more activity on that front?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: I won’t reveal any change in position there.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay, let me ask you about Venezuela,
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Yes.
MARGARET BRENNAN: where you have been very focused and very central to the President’s policy. The President said that Venezuela now has the United States, the most powerful military in the world, to protect them. To protect them, we will. Is the United States military providing security guarantees for American companies?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: We’re not doing that right now, but what we, what he means, is we’re changing the game for what’s happening in the ground in Venezuela. Venezuela has purchased $20 billion of Russian weapons. They got Cuban mercenaries there. They supply oil to Cuba. They, they harbor the Hezbollah’s headquarters for the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela has been a very dangerous, very destabilized place going down the tubes. And with the United States influence now by controlling the sale of their oil and therefore the flow of funds into the country, we think we’re going to, we will see relatively rapid change, improvement on the ground in Venezuela. This is a process. We’re only eight days into the process, but it’s off to a strong start.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, it’s off to a quick start. You had the oil executives at the White House just Friday. That the President, excuse me, the State Department yesterday had a security alert I want to ask you about because it specifically cited the risk to Americans in Venezuela, and it said armed militias are setting up roadblocks, searching vehicles for evidence of US citizenship or support for the US. The man who runs those militias is Diosdado Cabello, who is the Minister of the Interior. Is he ordering the hunting of Americans?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Not that we are aware of, but we should be cautious. Look, this is, as they say, eight days into a change into a change of leadership there. The interim authorities are trying to establish power. Collectivos have been running wild over, over Venezuela for, for over a decade. So, yeah, you’re not going to–
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. Well he controls them.
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: He does.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So is he safe in his position? Because right now the administration seems to be working with him.
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: We need to work with the people that have the guns today to ultimately move the country to a representative government and a better station. But what you’ve got to prevent in the mean term is a collapse of the nation. And I think the strong moves we’re making right now is to influence the people with the guns today, which is part of a process.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And you’re not concerned he’s going to undermine the more business minded President Delcy Rodriguez?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Oh, of course we’re worried about things like that. We need to get stability among the leadership in Venezuela. So yes, of course we’re concerned about those things.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So tell me broadly, is the Trump administration’s goal here to acquire the state oil company, PDVSA, and to run it. Are you going to put Americans on the board? How is this going to work?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Well, again, it’s a process. The first thing to do is to reduce the damage to the United States, the inflow of guns and criminals and immigrants and drugs into the United States, the destabilizing of a key part of the Western Hemisphere. We need to stop that. That’s why we’ve entered into Venezuela. Certainly, part of the way to improve Venezuela and to improve the Western Hemisphere and improve the lives of Americans is to get their very corrupt 25 years in decline, oil industry back going again.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Does that mean the United States government is going to run it? The president says we’re going to run the country. Are we running this as like as an American state owned oil company essentially?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: No. Today we are running the sale of their crudes. You know, we have a quarantine around their ability to ship oil outside of Venezuela. All of that goes through American crude marketers, and then that crude goes out into the market. We collect those funds and bring them back to Venezuela to better the lives of Americans and Venezuelans. But in the long run, what will happen with Venezuelan oil resources? Yeah, of course, quite likely you’ll see American companies’ expanded presence there. You’ll see growing production. Of course, you’re going to see more American involvement in there. But exactly how that’s going to work, that’s going to unfold over time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So back in November, us, Judge backed a bid by an American hedge fund to purchase Citgo Petroleum. The Treasury still has to approve that deal. The hedge fund is actually run by a big Trump donor, Paul Singer. Do you want to preserve Venezuelan ownership of Citgo? Do you want to have America have a financial stake in it, like Trump bought a big portion of an intel company, do you want to own portions of oil companies?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Again, that’s going to be up to American businesses. That’s certainly a very real possibility. The Citgo sale is part of, is part of bringing redress to creditors of the United States for the Venezuelan Government. And of course, one, one of the capital providers in that transaction is a hedge fund provider you just mentioned. There’s lots of American investors and American refining entrepreneurs that are involved in that so to take Venezuelan owned refineries that are in the United States and legally through an auction process, transfer them to American owners and American entrepreneurs in the refining business. I think that’s fantastic.
MARGARET BRENNAN: There’s concern about corruption here, though. Will there be Americans installed on these boards? And how do you respond to these allegations that some Trump donors are going to get preferential treatment?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: I can assure you that is absolutely not the case. Absolutely not the case. Think of what President Trump has done for the American oil and gas industry. He’s driven down the price of oil. He’s dramatically reduced–
MARGARET BRENNAN: There’s an over supply of oil. And now you’re going to put more on the market.
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Exactly. That’s not- That’s not good for American oil and gas companies.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Because it makes it less profitable for them to actually go and invest in drill, baby, drill.
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Exactly. Democrats and President Biden are fantastic for American oil and gas companies because they try to restrict the supply to something that’s essential to life, which only has one possible impact, which is to drive up prices and grow profitability. So President Trump is no, is no helper to the oil and gas industry. And certainly there’s no corruption, preferential placement of people. There’s none of that. I can assure you of that. I’m in the center of this.
MARGARET BRENNAN: How are you going to decide the contracts? Is the Treasury going to approve the Citgo dominance there in that–
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: That went through a large auction to buy it.
MARGARET BRENNAN
Are you going to brief to Congress the decisions you’re making about which firms get access?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: Absolutely. All that was an auction open to all American firms. There were many bidders, including the coalition of bidders you mentioned. We want those assets to get as much money as possible, to go back to the creditors of the Venezuelan Government. And we want American refinery assets owned by Americans that are going to increase the throughput, drive down the price of gasoline in America.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. So Secretary Rubio said there’s a three point plan, stabilize, rehabilitate, transition. This sounds indefinite, even when you heard some of those oil executives, Chevron’s leadership, they’re already in Venezuela, we should say, said it will take 18 to 24 months to even increase oil production by 50%. So how long is this American involvement? Because he’s saying there, it’s at least a year and a half, two years.
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: They’ve been there for 100 years, and likely, Chevron’s going to be there 50 years from now.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But the United States government, how long does that role continue?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: You heard the third part of Rubio’s question, which is transition. We want to bring a representative government to the people of Venezuela. I think then you’ll see the full sovereignty back to the government of Venezuela. We don’t have a legitimate government of Venezuela today. We’d like to move and get there, but America–
MARGARET BRENNAN: Is there a timeline?
SEC. CHRIS WRIGHT: 25 years, this country has gone in decline. President Trump out of the box, creative intervention has allowed us to change the game. But, yeah, I don’t know the timeline of that. It’s not weeks, it’s more months. Could be a year or two could be more.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. Secretary Wright, thank you for your time today.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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