PATRICK K. O’DONNELL: At The Three Chimneys Mansion In Brooklyn Heights, New York, General Washington Conferred With Top Officers. It Was There They Decided On A Strategic Retreat Across The East River


Posted originally on Rumble on Bannon War Room on: December 25, 2025

PATRICK K. O’DONNELL: At The Battle Of Brooklyn, Patriots Staged An “American Thermopylae,” Which Bought An Hour More Precious In History Than Any Other


Posted originally on Rumble on Bannon War Room on: December 25, 2025

PATRICK K. O’DONNELL: The American Revolution Was Probably The Most Significant Event In History Other Than The Birth And Life Of Christ


Posted originally on Rumble on Bannon War Room on: December 25, 2025

NY Fed President Believes CPI Data was “Distorted”


Posted originally on Dec 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Inflation up

NY Fed’s John Williams believes the CPI data was distorted downward. Williams stated that the economic data blackout caused by the government shutdown caused CPI figures to appear lower than reality.

“There were some special factors or practical factors that really are related to the fact that they weren’t able to collect data in October and not in the first half of November. And because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so,” Williams told reporters at CNBC. “It’s hard to know, we’ll get some when we’ll get to December data, I think we’ll get a better reading of how much that distortion, how big the effect was, but I do think that that was pushed down a bit by these technical factors,” he added.

CPI rose at 2.7% on an annualized basis last month, according to the delayed data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data was collected during the second half of November when sales were prevalent. The October CPI release was not officially compiled but they provided a rough estimate based on “non survey data sources.” Obviously, it is not possible to compare November to October when the data is simply not there.

Williams has admitted what I warned all along—we cannot trust the numbers provided by the government. Yet, these numbers are used to create monetary policy despite obvious discrepancies. Williams voted in favor of a cut in December but does not feel an “urgent need” to continue easing.

Monetary authorities are trying to manage an economy they cannot measure properly. They are balancing a weakening labor market against inflation readings that they themselves confess may be inaccurate.

Drone Netting – Modern Warfare


Posted originally on Dec 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Our parents and grandparents once ran to bomb shelters to save themselves from enemy fire. In modern warfare, the people are most concerned about drones infiltrating civilian airspace. Netting can be seen across Ukraine that looks akin to bird netting, but it holds a more sinister purpose—protecting civilians from drone strikes.

Industrial mesh covers key roads and bridges to form tunnels capable of blocking small drones. The fishing nets are precisely that—fishermen from Sweden and France have donated hundreds of tons of used netting to Ukraine. Instead of catching deep sea monkfish, these horsehair fishing nets are attempting to counter the 500 daily drone attacks occurring across Ukraine.

“At first they were used by doctors protecting medical camps near the frontline but now they are being used on roads, bridges, the entrances to hospitals… it’s astonishing that something so simple works so well,” one charity noted. Ukrainian troops are also attempting to drop this netting on Russian drones mid-air.

Russia has employed similar anti-drone measures. A true grassroots countermeasure proved to be free. This simple technology has never been utilized before, as we are witnessing the dawn of drone warfare and the emerging solutions to combat the destruction.

Japan & the Future


Posted originally on Dec 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

INJYUS Y 12 16 25

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I understand the previous Japanese government did to you with the letter asking to confirm $10 billion when it was $1 billion and they never explained how they could make such a mistake. Here in Japan, we are still struggling as you had warned would be the case with the collapse of the bubble economy 36 years ago. The recently elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has proposed an ambitious 21 trillion yen ($135 billion) spending program that puts new stresses on already heavily overdrawn government coffers. Would you ever consider coming to Japan to advise the new government?

TK

ANSWER: Thank you for the offer, but I do not believe that the new government would want to hear anything I had to say. The plan fulfills Takaichi’s campaign promise to bring yet another “proactive fiscal policy” that she thinks would bring Japan out of its long economic decline since the collapse of the bubble economy back in 1989. She is tackling a new approach to spend with the intention to help people cope with higher prices through various subsidies rather than taking more painful steps to control inflation itself, which has failed. When inflation is caused globally that began with the lockdowns of COVID instigating shortages, no single country can defeat inflation that is not caused domestically alone.

Next year will be critical for Japan. This will be our long-term target object – 43 years from the 1989 peak. Japan is the textbook case of how aggressively targeting inflation can fail when CONFIDENCE, demographics, and debt dynamics overwhelm monetary tools. Those who create these theoretical economic solutions assume they can manipulate people and never grasp that the core issue remains CONFIDENCE. People must believe that there is a future. Until the government understands that, it will fail continually. This is why some academics hate my guts because the reality is that their schemes to manipulate society fail and they prefer to blame others for their failed theories.

In 2013, under Abenomics, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) formally adopted a 2% inflation target. Inflation never reached that level because there was no CONFIDENCE in the future. People hoarded their cash and did not spend. Households and firms did not believe inflation would last.

Massive QE beginning in the early 2000s, expanded after 2013. The BoJ balance sheet grew to over 130% of GDP (largest in the world). Money did not circulate. Banks parked liquidity back at the BoJ or bought JGBs. Corporations hoarded cash instead of investing except for US Treasuries and the hoard resulted in the collapse of the Velocity of money.

Roman Hoard Britain

You can print money, but you cannot force CONFIDENCE or risk-taking when the people are uncertain about the future. People MUST have CONFIDENCE in the future. Failing that, they will hoard money and refuse to invest. This is well established even with all the hoards of Roman coins from the 3rd Century AD. This is why there are many Roman coins that have survived because people burred their cash during the 3rd century when the CONFIDENCE in Rome surviving collapsed especially after Emperor Valerian I was captured in battle by the Persians exposing the weakness of Rome.

From 2016 onward, the BoJ capped the 10-year JGB yield near zero. Bond market liquidity evaporated. Investors exited the market entirely. Because of the rising debt, stimulus spending was offset by future tax fears. The people did not trust the FUTURE!

Keynes Old Ideas

Japan is a mess. The academics have been totally wrong and Japan is on the edge of default. I do not think I can solve the problems of Japan with just one meeting. This is a very complex crisis compounded by so many mistakes it will take a serious reset. I do not believe that it can be turned until they come to realize that their theories are just wrong and that typically necessitates the crash. The academics rejected Keynes until after the Great Depression when all their previous theories failed. Unfortunately, the same will be true with the ECM. They will cling to Keynesianism until it all comes crashing down.

What politicians and academic economists refuse to look at, is that it is impossible to create social justice without the loss of individual liberty and economic efficiency. Just look at communism and the slow decay of Europe as the EU tries to create social justice at the expense of everything else. They confound civil rights and equality with material equality and that has failed every single time.

The Night Trump Saved Christmas


Posted originally on Dec 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Memos of Conversations Between George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin Are Released


Posted originally on CTH on December 25, 2025 | Sundance

Following a series of FOIA lawsuits, memos from conversations between Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and former US President George W. Bush have been released online by the National Security Archive. [Original Source Here]

I know it’s Christmas, but bookmark or review as time allows, because the content is very interesting and very important. As early as 2001 and 2008, President Putin clearly told President Bush of his opposition to Ukraine’s accession to NATO, along with other key positions.

Despite what popular media might say, these are NOT full transcripts. Rather, they are memos containing quotes from both leaders as they discuss geopolitical relations between the U.S. and Russia. [SOURCE HERE]

♦ June 16, 2001 – Memorandum of Conversation. Subject: Restricted Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. [LINK HERE] In this first personal meeting at the Brno Castle in Slovenia Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush express respect for each other and desire to establish a close relationship. Putin tells Bush about his religious beliefs and the story of his cross that survived a fire at his dacha. In a short one-on-one meeting they cover all the most important issues of U.S.-Russian relations such as strategic stability, ABM treaty, nonproliferation, Iran, North Korea and NATO expansion. Bush tells his Russian counterpart that he believes Russia is part of the West and not an enemy, but raises a question about Putin’s treatment of a free press and military actions in Chechnya. Putin raises a question of Russian NATO membership and says Russia feels “left out.” [READ MEMO HERE]

♦ September 16, 2005: Document 2 – Memorandum of Conversation. Subject: Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation: [LINK HERE] Putin meets the U.S. President in the Oval Office for a plenary that covers mainly issues of nonproliferation and U.S.-Russian cooperation on Iran and North Korea. The conversation shows impressively close positions on Iran and North Korea, with Putin presenting himself as an eager and supportive partner. Bush tells Putin “we don’t need a lot of religious nuts with nuclear weapons” referring to Iran. Putin said that Ukraine’s accession to NATO would, in the long term, create a field of conflict between Russia and the United States, adding that internal divisions within Ukraine could lead to its fragmentation. [READ MEMO HERE]

♦ April 6, 2008 – Document 3: Memorandum of Conversation. Subject: Meeting with President of Russia [LINK HERE] This is the last meeting between Putin and Bush, taking place at Putin’s residence in Bocharov Ruchei in Sochi on the Black Sea. The tone is strikingly different from the early conversations, where both presidents pledged cooperation on all issues and expressed commitment to strong personal relationship. This meeting takes place right after the NATO summit in Bucharest where tensions flared about the U.S. campaign for an invitation to Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. Turning to conversations in Bucharest, Putin states his strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia and says that Russia would be relying on anti-NATO forces in Ukraine and “creating problems” in Ukraine “all the time,” because it is concerned about “threat of military bases and new military systems being deployed in the proximity of Russia.” Surprisingly, in response, Bush expresses his admiration for the Russian president’s ability to present his case: “One of the things I admire about you is you weren’t afraid to say it to NATO. That’s very admirable. People listened carefully and had no doubt about your position. It was a good performance.” [READ MEMO HERE]

2001 –  Putin raises a question of Russian NATO membership and says Russia feels “left out.”

As noted by The Islander (Via Twitter) –  “The 2001 Memo That Should Have Ended the Cold War 2.0 and Instead Helped Write the Preface to Ukraine. There are documents that don’t merely record history, they expose it. This is one of them.

June 2001. A “restricted meeting” between President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin. Not a podium performance, not a television soundbite, not a speech crafted for domestic applause. A private conversation, the place where empires are supposed to speak plainly, where leaders test ideas that could reroute decades.

And what does the memo show?

Putin raises the idea that Russia could eventually join NATO. He says Russia feels “left out” by NATO enlargement. He points to an older fact most Western publics were never meant to internalize: the Soviet Union applied to join NATO in 1954. He argues the reasons for rejection no longer apply. He suggests, almost clinically, that perhaps Russia could be an ally — “European and multi-ethnic,” comparable in character to the United States.

Read that again slowly.

Because the propaganda version you’ve been fed for years requires amnesia: it requires you to believe Russia woke up one morning and decided to be “a threat,” as if geopolitics is a mood swing and security architecture is irrelevant.

But here is the declassified record: Russia was probing for an exit ramp. A pathway into a shared system. A new security architecture. A post–Cold War settlement that could have turned the 1990s from a hollow victory lap into a durable peace.

And it didn’t happen.

Not because it was impossible. Not because Russia “never wanted it.” Not because “the West tried everything.”

It didn’t happen because NATO, as an institution, does not know how to live without a frontier. It does not know how to justify itself without an adversary. It does not know how to maintain internal cohesion without a map that points east and says: there.

The 1954 Ghost: the offer the West never wanted to remember

The most important part of this memo is not the 2001 line, but the 1954 reference.

Because it collapses the morality play.

If the Soviet Union, a state the West defined as the existential enemy, floated the notion of joining NATO in 1954, that means something profound: the idea of Russia being inside the European security architecture is not a “Putin-era trick.” It is a recurring historical proposal, returning whenever Moscow believes there may be a rational way to avoid permanent confrontation.

And what happened then? It was refused.

Which is exactly the point: NATO was never simply a “defensive alliance.” Even in 1954, It was a structure. A protection racket. A way to organize Europe under an American strategic roof and to keep it there. If Russia enters that roof as an equal, the architecture changes. Budgets decrease, with less money for the MIC. Threat perceptions change. The entire postwar hierarchy changes.

So the West did what empires do when presented with a peace that would reduce their leverage:

It smiled, took notes, and kept moving.

“Join NATO” was never a plea, it was a test.

Some people still misunderstand the early Putin posture. They interpret it as naivete, or worse, submission.

Wrong.

This was not Russia begging to be absorbed. The consistent theme in contemporaneous accounts is conditionality, that Russia could consider joining if treated as an equal partner, but not as a defeated province invited into the emperor’s club after proving it can submit.

That distinction matters.

Because it reveals the real incompatibility:
•Russia wanted a security system where it is a partner of European security, not an object to be managed.
•The Atlantic system wanted Russia as a managed periphery, permanently “integrating,” permanently reforming, permanently conceding, never truly sovereign in security decisions.

You can’t fuse those visions. One side must yield.

So the Atlantic system chose the only thing it has ever really chosen, expansion.”

A quarter century has passed since that original outreach by Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin in 2001.  It was rejected by President George W Bush and all presidents thereafter.  In 2025, we are in the phase of consequence.

This public release just happened on December 23, 2025.

Perhaps, just perhaps, this release can change the conversation in the United States.  Perhaps, just perhaps, President Trump, Secretary Rubio and Emissary Witkoff can reverse the course, and change the arc of history toward peace and a strategic alliance.

The timing of the release inspires hope, but the opposition to peace is extreme.

A Remarkable Year Filled with Wins


Posted originally on CTH on December 25, 2025 | Sundance 

It’s easy to think about the things we have yet to achieve.  However, author and friend of the Treehouse Jack Cashill documents a great deal of success and presents a year in review that deserves attention. [SEE HERE]

In his substack article, Cashill runs through some of the big wins that were achieved by President Trump and the MAGA network in 2025.  And the year ain’t over yet!

[READ The “Celebrating” HERE]

Because of Love


Posted originally on CTH on December 25, 2025 | Sundance 

We accept that this time of year looks different for everyone. Our hope is the Christmas season brings you moments of celebration, rest, reflection, joy and spiritual connection. Whatever Christmas looks like for you, and in whatever form feels right for you, Merry Christmas.

From the email ‘Patthenavybrat’ conveys a Christmas message via a true story as told by Willy Eagle: “Because of Love“.

“A brother and sister had made their usual hurried, obligatory pre-Christmas visit to the little farm where dwelt their elderly parents with their small herd of horses. The farm was where they had grown up and had been named Lone Pine Farm because of the huge pine, which topped the hill beside the farm.

Through the years the tree had become a talisman to the old man and his wife, and a landmark in the countryside. The young siblings had fond memories of their childhood here, but the city hustle and bustle added more excitement to their lives, and called them away to a different life.

The old folks no longer showed the horses, for the years had taken their toll, and getting out to the barn on those frosty mornings was getting harder, but it gave them a reason to get up in the mornings and a reason to live. They sold a few foals each year, and the horses were their reason for joy in the morning and contentment at day’s end.

Angry, as they prepared to leave, the young couple confronted the old folks “Why do you not at least dispose of The Old One. She is no longer of use to you. It’s been years since you’ve had foals from her. You should cut corners and save so you can have more for yourselves. How can this old worn-out horse bring you anything but expense and work? Why do you keep her anyway?”

“The old man looked down at his worn boots, holes in the toes, scuffed at the barn floor and replied, “Yes, I could use a pair of new boots. His arm slid defensively about the Old One’s neck as he drew her near with gentle caressing he rubbed her softly behind the ears. He replied, we keep her because of love. Nothing else, just love.”

Baffled and irritated, the young folks wished the old man and his wife a Merry Christmas and headed back toward the city as darkness stole through the valley. The old couple shook their heads in sorrow that it had not been a happy visit. A tear fell upon their cheeks. How is it that these young folks do not understand the peace of the love that filled their hearts?

So it was, that because of the unhappy leave-taking, no one noticed the insulation smoldering on the frayed wires in the old barn. None saw the first spark fall. None but the “Old One.”

In a matter of minutes, the whole barn was ablaze, and the hungry flames were licking at the loft full of hay. With a cry of horror and despair, the old man shouted to his wife to call for help as he raced to the barn to save their beloved horses. But the flames were roaring now, and the blazing heat drove him back.

He sank sobbing to the ground, helpless before the fire’s fury. His wife back from calling for help cradled him in her arms, clinging to each other, they wept at their loss.

By the time the fire department arrived, only smoking, glowing ruins were left, and the old man and his wife, exhausted from their grief, huddled together before the barn. They were speechless as they rose from the cold snow covered ground. They nodded thanks to the firemen as there was nothing anyone could do now.

The old man turned to his wife, resting her white head upon his shoulders as his shaking old hands clumsily dried her tears with a frayed red bandana…brokenly he whispered, “we have lost much, but God has spared our home on this eve of Christmas. Let us gather strength and climb the hill to the old pine where we have sought comfort in times of despair. We will look down upon our home and give thanks to God that it has been spared and pray for our beloved most precious gifts that have been taken from us.

And so, he took her by the hand and slowly helped her up the snowy hill as he brushed aside his own tears with the back of his old and withered hand.

The journey up the hill was hard for their old bodies in the steep snow. As they stepped over the little knoll at the crest of the hill, they paused to rest, looking up to the top of the hill the old couple gasped and fell to their knees in amazement at the incredible beauty before them.

Seemingly, every glorious, brilliant star in the heavens was caught up in the glittering, snow-frosted branches of their beloved pine, and it was aglow with heavenly candles. And poised on its top most bough, a crystal crescent moon glistened like spun glass. Never had a mere mortal created a Christmas tree such as this. They were breathless as the old man held his wife tighter in his arms.

Suddenly, the old man gave a cry of wonder and incredible joy. Amazed and mystified, he took his wife by the hand and pulled her forward. There, beneath the tree, in resplendent glory, a mist hovering over and glowing in the darkness was their Christmas gift. Shadows glistening in the night light.

Bedded down about the “Old One” close to the trunk of the tree, was the entire herd, safe.

At first hint of smoke, she had pushed the door ajar with her muzzle and had led the horses through it. Slowly and with great dignity, never looking back, she had led them up the hill, stepping cautiously through the snow. The foals were frightened and dashed about. The skittish yearlings looked back at the crackling, hungry flames, and tucked their tails under them as they licked their lips and hopped like rabbits. The mares that were in foal with a new years crop of babies, pressed uneasily against the “Old One” as she moved calmly up the hill and to safety beneath the pine. And now, she lay among them and gazed at the faces of the old man and his wife. Those she loved had not disappointed. Her body was brittle with years, tired from the climb, but the golden eyes were filled with devotion as she offered her gift—

Because of love. Only because of love.

Tears flowed as the old couple shouted their praise and joy…And again the peace of love filled their hearts.”

“Because of Love” 

This year, perhaps due to division or diminishment of real things of value, the reading of this beautiful story lands a little differently.  This year as I was sent this story, the metaphor it creates brings with it a different type of contemplation.

Perhaps it does for you also.

You know, it’s funny, but the current nature of life reminds me of an LP record being played at 45 speeds. I think many of us can remember forgetting to change the setting after a 45 and laughing at how the LP sounded like the Chipmunks until we changed it.

The hurriedness of things always swirling; the anxious drivers with less patience, unable to explain why. The endless quest to gain the biggest slice of life’s economic pie, now combined with endless comparisons delivered to the Instagram generation reminding them of everything they lack.

The thing that’s missing is not a thing.

You have value. Real, incredible value.

If you find yourself stuck, thinking about what gift to get for the person who doesn’t need much.  Or, if you just want to change the Christmastime dynamic for those around you; well, give them what’s missing….

… It’s not a thing.

Fill the void.

Give them what’s missing.

…. It’s not a thing.

With love,

Merry Christmas!