Posted originally on Feb 20, 2026 by Martin Armstrong 

The latest data showing the US trade deficit widening sharply to about $70.3 billion should not be interpreted the way mainstream economists always frame it. They immediately jump to the conclusion that a rising trade deficit is a sign of economic weakness, when in reality it often reflects the opposite and represents strong domestic demand. According to the latest Commerce Department figures cited in financial reports, the gap widened as imports surged while exports lagged, driven in part by capital goods and technology demand.

A trade deficit is not occurring in isolation. If the United States imports more than it exports, the excess dollars do not vanish, rather, they return as capital investment into US assets, equities, real estate, and Treasuries. That capital inflow is precisely why the dollar can remain strong even while the trade deficit widens. America has been running trade deficits since the late 20th century, yet it remains the world’s primary capital destination.

Imports rose sharply, particularly in industrial supplies, technology equipment, and capital goods linked to AI infrastructure expansion. America is attracting global capital into productive, growing sectors. Historically, trade deficits expand during periods of investment booms because domestic demand outpaces supply.

Even with aggressive tariff policies, imports continued rising, and the goods trade deficit reached record levels of around $1.24 trillion in 2025. Trade balances are driven more by capital flows and currency strength than by tariff policy alone. Global capital still viewing the United States as the safest destination amid geopolitical uncertainty in Europe and elsewhere. Capital always moves to the strongest legal and financial system, not the one with the best trade balance. This is why nations like Germany or Japan may run surpluses while still seeing capital volatility.

Countries that run chronic trade deficits are only in danger when capital stops flowing in. The key factor is CONFIDENCE. As long as global capital continues to view the United States as the primary safe haven during periods of geopolitical and economic instability, the trade deficit becomes a reflection of strength in capital attraction rather than weakness.