Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Sep 16 2026

Trading Westminster for Brussels?


Posted  Originally on Sep 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Go Radio on X: "The First Ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will sign an agreement later aimed at pressuring Downing Street to hold independence referendums. All three devolved governments are

I wrote on September 9, 2014, just days before Scotland’s independence referendum, that we had been taking the prospect of Scottish separation seriously since the Berlin Conference in 2012. At that conference, I showed the chart illustrating the rise of separatist movements throughout Europe as part of our Cycle of War model. By 2014, when the polls suddenly showed Scotland could actually vote YES and break apart a union dating back to 1707, the political establishment was shocked. I wrote then that “such trends are driven by economics” and that what we were witnessing was the rise in civil unrest as confidence in government declined. Scotland ultimately voted 55% to 45% to remain, and the establishment assumed the threat had passed.

Twelve years later, Scotland’s independence movement remains alive, Wales is showing a rising generational appetite for separation, Northern Ireland has a legal path toward reunification, and now the leaders of all three devolved nations have sat at the same table and declared that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end.” What was appearing on the model as a rising separatist trend more than a decade ago is no longer sitting on the political fringe.

Scotland’s John Swinney and Northern Ireland’s Michelle O’Neill are openly calling for referendums, while Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth has joined them in asserting Wales’ right to determine its own future. The SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Sinn Féin declared that “no Westminster government has the right to block democracy” and called upon the British government to “prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change.” The agreement itself has no legal power to dissolve the United Kingdom, but dismissing it as symbolism misses what is actually taking place. Political structures begin to break when the consent holding them together begins to disappear.

When everything is prosperous, people tolerate central government because there is little incentive to upset the system. When taxes rise, living standards decline, debt expands, migration creates political tensions, and government becomes increasingly authoritarian or unresponsive, people begin asking a very different question: why are we paying these people to rule us?

The numbers in Scotland are particularly important. Scotland held its independence referendum in 2014 and voted 55% to 45% to remain inside the United Kingdom. That was supposed to settle the issue for a generation. There have now been nearly 300 Scottish independence polls conducted since the Brexit referendum, and support has repeatedly hovered around the dividing line. Recent polling continues to place the country essentially around 50-50 once undecided voters are removed. An independence movement that captured 45% twelve years ago did not disappear; it became a permanent political force capable of splitting the country almost directly down the middle.

Among voters aged 18 to 24, support for independence reached 59% in Wales. Among those aged 25 to 34 it was 54%, and among those aged 35 to 44 it reached 57%. Support collapsed among older voters, falling to just 15% among those 65 and older. That is a generational divide, and political trends driven by younger populations do not simply disappear with time.

Northern Ireland presents an entirely different constitutional problem because the Good Friday Agreement already contains a legal mechanism for a referendum on reunification when the British government believes a majority would likely support it. Current polling does not establish that threshold. Recent estimates place support for Irish unity well below an outright majority, and a University of Liverpool study found that many voters supporting reunification could actually be persuaded to remain in the UK if public services improved and the cost of living declined. That is incredibly revealing because it demonstrates what I have said all along: these constitutional movements are not driven purely by nationalism. ECONOMICS MATTERS.

More than 61% of pro-unity respondents in that Northern Ireland survey said improved public services could persuade them to remain, while 58.5% said a lower cost of living could change their position. In other words, loyalty to political structures is not unconditional. People tolerate government while they believe the arrangement works. Once they conclude that the existing system is failing them economically, the political structure itself becomes negotiable.

Westminster continues to treat independence as something that can simply be denied until the problem disappears. Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently suggested Scotland could receive another referendum if there were a “clear consensus,” only to subsequently tell Swinney that another vote was effectively off limits. That is precisely how separatist movements become stronger. If the United Kingdom truly exists through the consent of its nations, then eventually Westminster must confront the uncomfortable question of what happens when that consent is withdrawn.

Europe-Separatist Movement

The irony in this latest agreement is that Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland say their future lies back inside the European Union. Escaping Westminster merely to surrender sovereignty to Brussels is not independence. I have criticized the SNP for precisely this contradiction for years. If Scotland wants sovereignty, then Scotland should have sovereignty. Trading London bureaucrats for Brussels bureaucrats accomplishes very little.

But that does not change the larger trend. The centralized political structures are beginning to fracture. Look across Europe and you can see the same pressure appearing in different forms. Nationalist parties are rising in Germany. Giorgia Meloni is calling for a confederal Europe where sovereignty remains with the nation-states rather than Brussels. Regional identity remains politically potent throughout the globe. Government always believes centralization creates stability. It eventually produces the opposite.

The United Kingdom itself is an excellent example. The union between England and Scotland dates to 1707. For centuries, economic interests, empire, trade, military power, and political institutions bound these nations together. But political unions are not immortal simply because they appear permanent to the generation currently governing them. The Soviet Union looked permanent until suddenly it was not. Yugoslavia looked like a nation on a map until the internal divisions became stronger than the political structure holding it together. Czechoslovakia disappeared peacefully. Political borders change whenever confidence in the central authority collapses sufficiently.

That does not mean Britain will break apart tomorrow. Scotland remains divided.. The significance is not that dissolution is imminent. The significance is that all three separatist movements are now politically aligned at precisely the same moment that confidence in Westminster is under enormous strain. This is how political change develops. It begins on the fringe, moves into opinion polls, enters parliament, captures political parties, and eventually reaches government. By the time the establishment acknowledges the trend, it has usually been developing beneath the surface for years.

Sep 16 2026

Germany Is Rejecting Brussels


Posted Originally on Sep 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Putin's shadow across Europe grows as German far right wins - The Japan Times

Something is happening in Germany that the political establishment can no longer dismiss as a temporary protest. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured 43.8% of the vote in the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its 2021 result and finishing far ahead of the CDU. Whether anyone likes the AfD or hates it is beside the point. When nearly half the electorate in a German state votes for a party that the establishment has spent years portraying as beyond the acceptable boundaries of politics, the intelligent question is not what is wrong with the voters. The question is what has gone so terribly wrong with the establishment that millions of people are willing to revolt against it.

This is precisely what Brussels does not understand about nationalism. The European establishment assumed that national identity would gradually disappear as power migrated upward into the European Union. Give everyone the same currency, create common regulations, remove borders, centralize more authority in Brussels, and eventually people would begin thinking of themselves primarily as Europeans rather than Germans, Italians, Frenchmen or Poles. That experiment is moving in the opposite direction because the more power Brussels accumulates, the more people begin demanding their nations back.

Saxony-Anhalt is now an extraordinary example of that political reaction. AfD has built its support around opposition to mass migration, hostility toward the political establishment, resistance to parts of the EU’s climate agenda, skepticism toward sanctions and Germany’s Russia policy, and demands that more authority remain with Germany rather than being surrendered to Brussels. You do not have to agree with every AfD policy to understand why that message is finding an audience. People increasingly believe decisions affecting their jobs, energy bills, borders and communities are being made by political institutions that do not represent them.

Germany has provided perhaps the clearest economic example of what happens when ideology replaces common sense. This was Europe’s industrial powerhouse. Its competitive advantage depended heavily upon manufacturing, exports and access to reliable energy. The country abandoned nuclear power, lost access to the cheap Russian pipeline gas upon which large parts of its industrial model had depended, embraced enormously expensive energy and climate policies, and then watched energy-intensive industries struggle to remain competitive. BASF, Volkswagen and other major industrial names have announced restructuring, investment changes or job reductions while German economic growth has remained painfully weak.

The AfD’s rise is particularly significant because the establishment has tried nearly everything to contain it politically. Germany’s domestic intelligence authorities have scrutinized the party and various branches of it for years. Other parties have maintained a political “firewall” refusing cooperation with AfD. There have been repeated debates over whether the party should be banned altogether. Yet every attempt to isolate the movement without addressing the grievances driving its support risks convincing more voters that the political system does not merely disagree with them but considers their votes illegitimate.

If 43.8% of voters support a party and the answer from the political establishment is simply that nobody may work with that party, then eventually those voters begin asking whether their vote actually matters. Democracy cannot function indefinitely when the establishment accepts election results only when citizens select an approved option. You defeat political movements by addressing why people support them, not by pretending millions of voters have suddenly become defective.

This is also why the AfD result fits into the much larger European trend. Giorgia Meloni is openly arguing that Europe should move toward a confederal structure that returns greater sovereignty to member states. Hungary continues challenging Brussels over migration, Ukraine and national authority. Slovakia has repeatedly collided with the European consensus on Russia and Ukraine. Nationalist and anti-establishment parties have grown across France, Austria, the Netherlands and elsewhere because the centralization of Europe is producing the political reaction that centralization always creates.

Germany is especially important because without Germany the European project cannot function in anything resembling its present form. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and has long provided much of the financial and political weight behind European integration. If German voters themselves begin rejecting the political consensus that supported that system, Brussels has a much larger problem than one election in Saxony-Anhalt.

Historians' corner - Berlin Wall's 1989 destruction helped usher in National Guard's State Partnership Program > National Guard > Article View

East Germany also carries historical baggage that Western political elites routinely underestimate. People who lived under the German Democratic Republic know what it means when political institutions insist that only certain opinions are socially acceptable. They remember a system in which the state monitored political attitudes and where dissent carried consequences. That does not make modern Germany equivalent to East Germany, nor should anyone make such an absurd comparison, but it helps explain why attempts to stigmatize or administratively suppress political opposition can produce an especially strong backlash in the east.

There is an economic component that Brussels also refuses to confront. People do not vote based upon GDP spreadsheets prepared in government ministries. They vote based upon whether their community feels safer, whether their electricity bill has increased, whether their factory still employs people, whether housing remains affordable, whether their taxes keep rising and whether they believe their children will have a better life. When government tells people everything is improving while their own experience tells them otherwise, confidence shifts away from institutions and toward opposition movements.

Germany’s political establishment can continue attacking the AfD, but that will not solve the underlying problem. If Germans believe immigration is out of control, government must address immigration. If they believe energy policy has damaged German industry, government must address energy. If they believe Brussels possesses too much authority, government must confront the sovereignty question. Calling people extremists does not lower an electricity bill, reopen a factory or restore confidence in government.

Europe was never one nation, and attempting to force radically different populations into an increasingly centralized political structure was always going to produce resistance. The more Brussels pushes toward federalization, common debt, common defense and common political authority, the more national politics will become the battlefield over sovereignty. AfD’s 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt is therefore bigger than the AfD itself because it represents millions of voters saying that the direction of Germany and Europe is no longer acceptable.

Sep 16 2026

Trump Sees the Breakup of Britain Coming


Posted  Originally on Sep 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland leaders sign pact to exit UK

Something very strange is happening around the United Kingdom, and the political establishment would be foolish to dismiss it. President Donald Trump has now openly endorsed the reunification of Ireland, describing it as one of the “naturals” of all time and saying he would “love” to see it happen. Then he was asked about Scottish independence and suddenly became much more careful, replying, “That one I won’t talk about yet.” Yet? That is an interesting word because Trump did not reject the possibility. He simply declined to discuss it NOW, precisely as separatist pressure is again rising across the United Kingdom.

The timing could hardly be more remarkable. Within days of Trump’s comments, the nationalist leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland came together in Cardiff and declared that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end.” Scotland’s SNP, Wales’ Plaid Cymru, and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland are now coordinating around the principle that their nations should determine their own constitutional futures. For the first time in the era of devolution, all three governments outside England are led by parties committed either to independence or Irish reunification. These events should not be viewed separately because they are manifestations of the same declining confidence in centralized political authority.

Northern Ireland is especially significant because unlike Scotland or Wales, there is already a legal mechanism for leaving the United Kingdom. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement provides for the possibility of a border poll if it appears likely that a majority would favor a united Ireland. That means Irish reunification is not some theoretical constitutional fantasy. There is an internationally recognized political path through which Northern Ireland could eventually leave Britain and join the Republic of Ireland.

Brexit itself was driven partly by precisely that desire to reclaim political sovereignty. Britain told Brussels that decisions affecting British citizens should be made in Britain. Fine. Scotland can now turn around and make precisely the same argument toward Westminster. Northern Ireland can make it toward London. Wales can eventually make it as well. Once you establish the principle that political sovereignty belongs closer to the people, you cannot simply declare that principle legitimate when Britain uses it against Brussels but illegitimate when Scotland uses it against Britain.

9.5 Identity and Separatist Movements – Introduction to Cultural Geography

Trump appears to recognize that the political map is not carved in stone. He has long approached geopolitics much more transactionally than the traditional diplomatic establishment. Borders, alliances, trade relationships, and political structures are not sacred merely because politicians have become accustomed to them. His willingness to discuss Irish reunification so casually therefore reflects something much larger than Ireland itself. The assumption that the United Kingdom will remain permanently united is no longer universally taken for granted.

His refusal to discuss Scotland is perhaps even more revealing. Trump owns property in Scotland and has extensive personal and business connections there, so there are obvious reasons for him to tread carefully. But saying “That one I won’t talk about yet” is not the same as saying Scottish independence is impossible.

The SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Sinn Féin broadly envision their futures inside the European Union. They want independence from Westminster while simultaneously embracing political integration with Brussels. I have never understood how surrendering sovereignty to one capital after escaping another constitutes independence. Scotland should have the right to govern Scotland, but genuine independence means sovereignty, not simply exchanging London bureaucrats for European bureaucrats.

ULTIMAHORAENX on X: "???? Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are pushing for independence referendums. Their political leaders are due to meet in Cardiff on Monday to sign a memorandum calling for each

Nevertheless, their contradiction does not make the separatist trend disappear. The political pressure itself is real, and it extends far beyond Britain. Catalonia challenged Madrid. Nationalist movements remain active in Flanders, Corsica, and elsewhere. Giorgia Meloni is calling for a confederal Europe that restores greater authority to sovereign nations. Nationalist and anti-establishment parties are gaining ground because centralized political structures are increasingly colliding with local interests.

This is precisely what the Cycle of War and civil unrest models were warning about when I discussed Scotland years before the 2014 referendum shocked Westminster. Economic decline does not merely change stock markets and currencies. It changes POLITICAL STRUCTURES. When government can no longer deliver prosperity, populations begin questioning why the government itself should continue to exist in its present form.

Trump’s comments therefore should not be dismissed as another offhand remark. The President of the United States has publicly said he would “love” to see Ireland reunified while deliberately leaving Scotland unanswered. Within days, the nationalist leaders governing Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland were sitting together declaring that Westminster’s era is coming to an end. None of this means the United Kingdom disappears tomorrow, but anyone looking at the direction of the political cycle should recognize what is taking place.

Sep 16 2026

Bravado Always Fails


Posted  Originally on Sep 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

2026_09_15_20_27_29_Inbox_martinarmstrong314_gmail.com_eM_Client

COMMENT: As I’ve just retired, I wanted to tell you that you were framed intentionally because you cost them more than $15 billion+ in losses. You are correct — they blamed you for having too much influence, and they played the NY authorities for fools. They claimed $1 billion was missing and that they didn’t know where it was, without ever explaining how anyone could get $1 billion out of a bank with no trace. The mainstream press still stays clear of you, yet you are widely followed and deeply respected. The FT here just confirmed what you had forecast, and the talk is again that it is all because of your influence.

When Scotty beams you up and your forecasts keep coming true, they will probably claim it was a clone and that you are on some island somewhere. I believe you are also correct that only after you die will they ever acknowledge your contribution to society.

Anonymous


REPLY: I didn’t know how much they lost, I did know between Buffet, Soros, and Safra, that was at least $5 billion. They always judged me by themselves. I also heard the Japanese government was pissed off because the computer had forecast the LDP would lose in 1993 for the first time since World War II. I heard the fabricated the letter to the Fed and then retraced it 13 years later. They too, I was told, blamed me for their loss rather than themselves. for all their attempts to manipiulate a market for their guaranteed trades, they simply blow up. To show their stupidity, they keep trying the same strategy like Netanyahu with his kill the leader and everything will collapse.

UK 10 Year Rate Y Tech 9 15 26

I was a pure trader and they were market manipulators trying to bully the market. Just listen to Bessent – “I am the house.” It is that same bravado and the markets will destroy him as well. In case he hasn’t noticed, long-term rates are rising globally. He thinks he can try to scare the entire world pretend he will be the house and then do a tiny $6 billion. I have clients who can sell that to him is 5 seconds or less and hit the bid as many times as he wants.

EU beating War Drums

You cannot beat the war drums and expect rates to decline. If Trump keeps us out of war with Russia, (see Private Blog) let’s the EU self-destruct, then capital inflows will bring US rates down while they rise externally. They try to intimidate the markets and when they ALWAYS lose, they have blamed me assuming I have more influence than they can buy rather than just once, do some self-examination. Just like government, every crash leads to an investigation to find someone in the private sector. As I have said, there ARE NO MIRRORS in governments. Never do they ever consider that just perhaps they may be the cause.

I think when Scotty beams me up, they will still call me a piece of shit. They are incapable of ever admitting a mistake.

Categories:Forecasts

Sep 14 2026

Costs Up, Wages Down – Inflation Prevails


Posted  Originally on Sep 14, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Quote of the Week | Milton Friedman Do you agree that inflation acts like a hidden tax? #miltonfriedman #inflation #tax #taxation #economics #freemarket #libertarian #chicagoschool #centralbank

Consumer prices in the USA rose 0.4% in August, four times July’s 0.1% increase, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. The politicians will point to that 3.4% number and pretend inflation has somehow stabilized. But look beneath the surface and you see an entirely different economy. Energy rose 2.1% in a single month and 16.3% from a year ago. Gasoline jumped 3.9% in August alone and is now 27.4% higher than a year ago. Other motor fuels, including diesel, surged 9.6% in one month and 44% annually. This is precisely why reducing inflation to one government statistic is absurd.

The August Producer Price Index already rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% annually, while processed goods for intermediate demand jumped 1.8%. Diesel prices at the producer level surged 24.1% in August. Those costs work their way through the entire economy. Businesses either raise prices, reduce margins, cut workers, or close. There is no fifth option.

Food increased only 0.1% for August and grocery prices were unchanged, but that does not mean Americans suddenly received relief. Food prices remain 2.7% higher than a year ago. Eggs rose another 2.9% during August. Eating at restaurants continues to rise, and households are still paying the snowballing increase from the inflation that already occurred. Government economists speak as though a lower rate of inflation means prices went back down. They did not. If something rises from $100 to $120 and then increases another 3%, you are not recovering purchasing power. You are simply being robbed more slowly.

Shelter increased 0.3% in August and remains 3% higher annually. This is where the Federal Reserve has created its own nightmare. Raise rates to fight inflation and mortgage payments become unaffordable. Lower rates and you risk reigniting asset prices and inflation. Meanwhile, the federal government continues borrowing trillions regardless of where rates stand. There is no monetary policy that can cure fiscal irresponsibility.

Core CPI supposedly looks better because it excludes food and energy, precisely two things people cannot choose to stop buying. Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, stronger than expected, although the annual rate eased from 2.5% to 2.4%. Airline fares rose 2.7%, hotel and motel prices jumped 2.4%, mobile phone costs surged 5.9%, and new and used vehicle prices also increased. So while economists debate whether 2.4% core inflation is encouraging, the person trying to pay the bills sees something entirely different.

Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings declined 0.3% from a year earlier. Real wages have now fallen for five consecutive months. THAT is what people actually feel. It does not matter what Washington tells them about GDP or employment when the paycheck buys less every month. People know inflation from their bank account, not from some economist sitting in Washington manipulating a basket of goods.

This is also why the Fed is trapped. Markets are now overwhelmingly expecting another rate hike. But raising rates will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, produce another barrel of oil, lower diesel prices, or end geopolitical conflict. You cannot cure an energy shortage with interest rates. The Fed will nevertheless raise rates because that is the only tool it has, and then everyone will blame the Fed when mortgages, auto loans, business credit, and government interest expense rise again.

This inflation is increasingly geopolitical and fiscal rather than merely monetary. War drives energy higher. Tariffs alter supply chains. Government borrowing keeps expanding. Defense spending is exploding throughout NATO. Europe is constructing a war economy while sovereign debt continues to rise. Then central banks are expected to somehow neutralize all of this by moving an overnight interest rate up or down 25 basis points.

The CPI is telling us something far more important than whether inflation was 3.3% or 3.4%. The structure of inflation is changing. The easy post-pandemic explanation is finished. We are entering an environment where geopolitical instability, energy, sovereign debt, and declining confidence in government increasingly dictate capital flows and prices.

That is precisely the environment where the old economic theories begin to fail. The Fed cannot control war. It cannot control Congress. It cannot control the national debt. It cannot control global capital flows. Yet everyone will demand that it somehow control the consequences.

Sep 14 2026

Free Cash for Drugs – Vote Democrat


Posted  Originally on Sep 14, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Homeless

For years, anyone who dared question the integrity of the election process was treated as some conspiracy nut. We were told election fraud was virtually nonexistent, that safeguards were more than adequate, and that demanding tighter controls was somehow an attack on democracy. Well, take a walk through Skid Row in Los Angeles and explain this one. Federal prosecutors have now charged three people in an alleged operation that paid people on Skid Row to sign California ballot petitions using the stolen identities of registered voters.

They pulled the identities of actual registered voters from a database, handed those identities to people on the street, paid them to copy the information onto petitions, and had them forge the corresponding signatures. That is precisely the type of manipulation we were repeatedly assured should not concern us.

James Brass, known as “Lord,” has been arrested and charged along with Courtney Price and Jateisha Herron. Prosecutors say the operation ran from February through August 2026. Brass allegedly received approximately $41,600 from coordinators associated with one petition-management company, while false declarations were signed claiming the circulators had personally witnessed the supposed registered voters signing the petitions.

Skid Row contains some of the most vulnerable people in America. Homelessness, mental illness and drug addiction are everywhere. Earlier reporting from undercover investigations described people being offered cash, cigarettes and marijuana for petition signatures.

And this is not even the first federal case to emerge from Skid Row this year. Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong (no relation) agreed to plead guilty after admitting that she paid people, including homeless individuals, to register to vote. She normally received money for petition signatures only when the signer was a registered voter, so prosecutors say she began offering people money to complete voter registration forms as well. Some homeless people had no address, so she supplied her own former Los Angeles address for them to use. California automatically mails ballots to registered voters, meaning ballots associated with some of those registrations potentially could have been sent to an address where those individuals did not live or receive mail. How many warning signs does government require before admitting that vulnerabilities exist?

Twain Mark If voting made any difference they would not let us do it

What particularly infuriates me is the exploitation of the homeless. Politicians parade around pretending they care about these people while Los Angeles has allowed human misery to become part of the landscape. Then along comes a political signature industry where every valid signature has monetary value. Suddenly the homeless person is valuable, not because anybody intends to get him off the street, treat his addiction or restore his dignity, but because his hand can produce a signature worth money. That is how sick politics has become.

There is a financial incentive behind this entire petition business. California requires hundreds of thousands of signatures to qualify statewide initiatives, creating an industry in which petition management companies pay circulators and signatures themselves acquire economic value. Once government creates a system where political access is measured by hundreds of thousands of signatures and each signature can generate money for somebody in the chain, do not act shocked when people attempt to game it.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said the defendants allegedly used members of Skid Row’s vulnerable homeless population to “cover up their tracks.” This is why identification and verification should never have become partisan issues. If someone tells me that requiring safeguards somehow “suppresses democracy,” I ask the obvious question: whose democracy are we protecting?

We have created a society where government knows virtually everything about YOU. Flock cameras can track your automobile. Banks report your transactions. Your phone knows where you sleep. The IRS knows what you earn. Government databases know where you live. Yet somehow when it comes to protecting the political process, asking that identity actually be verified becomes controversial. They can track an ordinary citizen across a city with cameras, but ensuring that one human being corresponds to one legitimate political identity is suddenly an unbearable burden.

Enough. We are destroying confidence in our institutions because politicians refuse to acknowledge weaknesses until federal prosecutors put somebody in handcuffs. Nobody should exploit a homeless addict for a political signature. And nobody should be afraid to demand that the system be secured simply because some political hack will call them an “election denier.”

Democracy cannot survive without confidence. Confidence cannot survive without transparency. If these allegations are proven, prosecute everyone involved regardless of party or ideology and follow the money wherever it leads. Stop pretending that fraud cannot happen. The federal government itself is now prosecuting people precisely because it can.

Sep 14 2026

Normalizing Constant Surveillance


Posted  Originally on Sep 14, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

How to Disable LG TV's 'ACR' System to Stop Data Harvesting and Recording

This is completely unacceptable. We have reached the point where you can purchase a television for your own home, pay for the television with your own money, put it in your living room, and discover that the damn thing may be capable of collecting information about you, your network, the devices around you, and what you are watching. An investigation by Gamers Nexus, Level1Techs, and independent security researchers found LG televisions scanning local networks for phones, smartwatches, computers, and other devices, collecting information about nearby Wi-Fi networks, location and IP information, and using Automatic Content Recognition to identify what appears on the television, including content coming through HDMI. Researchers also reported finding evidence of microphone audio being captured while a television was in standby and stored locally while offline.

LG acknowledges that its televisions can scan for compatible devices on the same network, describing this as ordinary smart-TV functionality, and says its ACR advertising feature is opt-in. Researchers nevertheless demonstrated just how much information modern televisions are technically capable of seeing around the household. LG Ad Solutions boasts of reaching hundreds of millions of “addressable secondary devices,” and LG advertising executives have used phrases such as “we own the glass” when describing the company’s relationship with the television screen. Excuse me? You sold me the glass. YOU DO NOT OWN IT AFTER I BUY IT. That mentality is precisely the problem with the modern technology industry. You think you are purchasing a product. Increasingly, corporations look at the product as a permanent doorway into your life.

I have written extensively about Flock cameras and the government’s expanding surveillance machinery. I have written about commercially available location information, license-plate databases, facial recognition, and the gradual destruction of privacy. Now look around your own house. Your television, refrigerator, doorbell, phone, smart gadgets, laptop, and any other device connected to the internet is capable of watching you.

LG smart TVs constantly spy on users, logging Wi-Fi networks and recording microphone audio even when offline or on standby. A joint investigation by YouTube channel Gamers Nexus and security researchers has

People need to STOP accepting this as simply the price of modern life. That attitude is how freedom disappears. “Well, that’s just how smart TVs work.” NO! Why should it be? Why should a television need to know what other devices are sitting on my network? Why should an advertising business need to understand the entire “household” rather than simply display the program I selected? Why should I need to dig through privacy agreements and obscure settings to determine whether the screen sitting in my living room is analyzing what I watch? The burden has been reversed. Instead of corporations proving why they absolutely require information, citizens are expected to discover how to stop them from collecting it.

The argument that everyone agreed to this somewhere inside a terms-of-service agreement is equally absurd. Nobody reads 40 pages of legal garbage before turning on a television. That is not meaningful consent. It is a legal shield written by lawyers to protect corporations. If a device is going to monitor viewing behavior, identify devices throughout a household, process voice information, or transmit information for advertising purposes, the consumer should be told in plain English exactly what is happening and should have to deliberately turn those features ON. Privacy should be the default. Surveillance should require permission.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DdEUjC2BOO1/embed/captioned/?cr=1&v=14&wp=500&rd=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com&rp=%2Fworld-news%2Ftechnology-world-news%2Fnormalizing-the-surveillance%2F#%7B%22ci%22%3A0%2C%22os%22%3A747.8999999910593%7D

This becomes infinitely more dangerous when government enters the equation. Data collected for advertising today can become enormously valuable to government tomorrow. We have already seen government agencies purchase commercially available information rather than obtain it through the traditional warrant process. We have seen police departments construct enormous searchable networks of license-plate cameras. We have watched the line between corporate data collection and government surveillance become thinner and thinner. The government does not need to install a microphone in every living room if citizens voluntarily purchase internet-connected microphones themselves.

That is why the argument “I have nothing to hide” is so incredibly foolish. Privacy is not about hiding criminal behavior. Privacy means government and corporations have no inherent right to know everything about you. What books you read, where you drive, who visits your home, what you watch, what websites you visit, what political programs you consume, and what you say inside your own living room are nobody’s damn business.

The frightening part is how quickly people have been conditioned to accept this. Twenty-five years ago, tell someone that their television might scan the devices inside their house, analyze what they watch for advertising, connect that information to other devices, and contain microphones capable of responding while the screen appears off, and people would have called it Orwellian. Today they call it a “smart home.”

Corporations should not be permitted to turn products people purchase into permanent surveillance platforms buried beneath unreadable agreements. Government should not be permitted to obtain information indirectly that the Constitution would require it to justify collecting directly. Privacy protections need to catch up with technology because technological capability is advancing far faster than the laws written to restrain its abuse.

We should not accept a surveillance state as an inevitable fact of modern life. We should not accept that everything must collect data because everything now contains a computer. We should not accept cameras following our cars, phones following our movements, algorithms following our purchases, and televisions monitoring our homes simply because somebody tells us this is the future. If that is the future they are offering, then we have every right to reject it.

Sep 14 2026

The Next Documentary


Posted  Originally on Sep 14, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

World_War_III_The_Documentary R
Sep 14 2026

The Middle East – The Cyclical View


Posted  Originally on Sep 14, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

172 Year Revolution Cycle

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find your analysis refreshing. You back up everything with facts, and your computer is amazing. No wonder the CIA wanted your source code. You warned that this Middle East War would spread, and it was not going to be over in a few days, as they told Trump. You warned that the 2020 election would be rigged but from a global perspective. I believe you said that was COVID that justified the mailin ballots.

2024 Middle East Cycle of War

Yet you wrote in your 2024 Middle East report about the rise of war with Israel: “Why is this one different? This is 72 years from the rebirth of Israel. However, this local cycle also aligned with 2020 on the major 172-year Revolutionary Cycle which has inspired the rise of the LEFT.”

I think it is time you update that report since everything has played out as your computer forecast.

CP

PS Maybe you need a cyclical geopolitical assistant. Things do not look like they are calming down.

Israel Cycle of War

ANSWER: The Cycle of War on Israel was spot on. The operation Midnight Hammer began on the night of June 21, 2025 (US time), with strikes concluding by June 22. The model turned May 8th, 2025. We do know that it was Jared Kushner who set up and attend meetings with Netanyahu in 2025. He served as an informal, unpaid adviser to President Trump, focusing primarily on Middle East peace negotiations. Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the billionaire NYC real estate developer, met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem to push for a Gaza ceasefire deal. They were later invited to join an Israeli cabinet meeting to help approve the agreement. Because they are NOT government employees and off the record from any official government status, they are using the same tactic as Hillary with her Private Server. The FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) would require the disclosure of everything, but only if they were government employees. Hillary used her private server to circumvent the FOIA requirements and then destroyed her emails to cover up her dealings. So we will never know the fi=ull story with Netanyahu.

Middle East

I know that people are claiming the Strait of Hormuz is not really that important and oil will decline. They are ignoring two wild cards. The swift offensive by the Iran-backed Houthis who have positioned themselves to seize control of a vital Middle East waterway on the other side disrupting Saudi Arabia. This presents a significant new challenge for not just President Trump as his conflict with Iran, but will further put a floor on crude. The other lunatic is Zelensky attacking the refineries and attacking Iranian ships to Russia. The real crisis is in refined products and this is showing up as a Panic Cycle for 2027.

The Houthi fighters have pushed south along Yemen’s coastline, capable of disrupting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the “Gate of Tears” at the entrance to the Red Sea. This is expanding Tehran strategy to bring the West to its knees. They took Perim Island, situated in the center of the strait between Yemen and Africa. This is especially troubling for Saudi Arabia, which has been exporting much of its oil from Red Sea ports.

I will add this to the list of things to get to.

As far as finding a cyclical geopolitical assassitant, that us easier said than done.

Sep 13 2026

Does Anybody Know What They Are Doing Anymore?


Posted  Originally on Sep 13, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Confused Man

QUESTION: Marty, I believe you said the war in Ukraine has completely changed warfare. Drones are the new weapon, and both sides are using NVIDIA chips. Former US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said he thought the war has reached a turning point and that technological superiority will give Ukraine a chance to defeat Russia.

Would you comment on that given your computer and geopolitical expertise?

Ben

terminator R
merchant of death

ANSWER: This is starting to resemble the movie Terminator. There is a kill zone between both sides where you stick your head up, and you are killed by a drone. I know Driscoll has joined Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and now head of the US defense company Perennial Autonomy, which operates in Ukraine. Schmidt has become the Merchant of Death (published 1934) for World War III like DuPont was for World War I. He claims he is defending democracy profiting from every kill, yet Russia has elections and Ukraine does not. Interesting how you look the other way when the money keeps rolling in.

I believe they both share the same ideas and both seem oblivious to how this war started and who has been pulling the strings. The very idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia is really absurd. Putin just warned the EU not to send troops to Ukraine. The EU & NATO want this war. Just like Iraq, there was never any planning for what came next after removing Saddam. Nobody even asks if Russia is defeated, what would happen? There is no consideration that a coup could take place and the old hardliners grab power and they too are like NATO and would love to even the score.

Pressing Nuclear Button

These people seriously lack any sense of history or geopolitics. They are too busy admiring themselves in the mirror as they spout Neocon propaganda without checking the facts. This idea that Russia can be utterly defeated is as absurd as proposing that the USA can be defeated. Propose that to the US military and high generals will quickly say they would nuke the adversary in such a condition.

China has warned Trump they will cancel any summit if the US sends military supplies to Taiwan. If you are a completely linear thinker, incapable of seeing the world as a whole, they are pushing us into World War III with this nonsense. China would join Russia and North Korea, to mention just two, because they KNOW that if Russia were destroyed, they are next. China is preparing for “national total war” – America is the enemy named in the Pentagon report.

So we now have drone wars with machines flying around using NVIDIA chips to decide autonomously who to kill. Nobody seems to think beyond the end of their nose. We have FLOCK cameras targeting people and some police departments are also engaging in tracking financial activity and using it as a pretext to pull people over. Britain has more people in prison than Russia for what they wrote on something like Facebook. Welcome to the world gone completely nuts as we head into 2032.