Posted originally on Feb 23, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

The potential move of the Chicago Bears from Illinois to Indiana is being framed as a sports story, but in reality, it is an economic signal that fits a much larger trend of corporate and capital migration. The organization has openly praised Indiana lawmakers after the state advanced legislation to support a new stadium development near Hammond, while negotiations in Illinois have stalled over tax and policy disputes.

Indiana officials have been aggressively coordinating legislation, financing structures, and development frameworks to attract the team, while Illinois political discussions on incentives and taxation have lagged or been canceled. The unanimous 24-0 vote for Senate Bill 27 provides $2 billion in funding for a new sports stadium.

“Indiana is open for business, and our pro-growth environment continues to attract major opportunities like this partnership with the Chicago Bears,” Governor Mike Braun wrote on X. “We’ve identified a promising site near Wolf Lake in Hammond and established a broad framework for negotiating a final deal…The State of Indiana moves at the speed of business, and we’ve demonstrated that through our quick coordination between state agencies, local government, and the legislature to set the stage for a huge win for all Hoosiers…”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker does not understand that capital does not wait for political red tape or policy. Capital moves quickly, favoring the most predictable and retaining environments. The current land tax is $3.6 million annually, but expanding the stadium in Illinois could come with a tax bill upward of $36 million annually. The Bears were willing to invest $2 billion into a new stadium in Illinois, but the increased tax liability is simply not worth the cost. Around $1.3 billion has been earned by the state in gross tax revenue during the team’s 40-year run in Chicago.

The Bears were also asking for improved infrastructure to support a larger stadium. The hearing on tax legislation surrounding the project was canceled. Indiana, in turn, stepped up to offer the team a solidified opportunity void of confusion and red tape.

The Soldier Field lease expires in 2033. This move is far more than team loyalty; in fact, the team was willing to make concessions to remain in Chicago. When governance becomes slower, more expensive, and more uncertain, major institutions reassess their long-term operating environment. Not only is the state losing millions in tax revenue, but they’re losing tourist dollars on restaurants and hotels, parking, local transit, merchandise goods sales, construction and stadium jobs, payroll taxes, property taxes, event taxes, and so on. It is quite extreme to see a football team abandon its namesake city after four decades. It exemplifies the nature of the trend we are witnessing: capital no longer feels welcome in blue states.