Posted originally on Feb 24, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

There is a deep division within the Trump Administration with a pro war and anti-war groups. The anti-war group are VP Vance and Tulsi Gabbard. The pro war group are Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and theemdless war moner Senator Lindsey Graham. Both Israel and the Neocons are consistently pushing for US action, viewing the current moment as an opportunity to deal a decisive blow to Iran to end the Islamic Republic. White House Press Secretary (Karoline Leavitt) stated publicly that “there are many arguments one can make in favor of a strike against Iran.”

The current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, has clearly and repeatedly cautioned President Trump about the significant risks associated with potential military action against Iran. Recent reports from multiple news outlets detail his private warnings to the President and other top officials. While they lacked approval power to go to war, what was the Joint Chiefs’ do provide private advice regarding the invasion. Scholarly analysis indicates that most senior military officers, including those on the Joint Chiefs, had significant reservations about using force in Iraq. Their primary worry was that an invasion would result in a costly and open-ended commitment for the United States

President Trump took the significant step of replacing the top military leadership, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, shortly after taking office in 2025. This was part of a broader and unprecedented shakeup of the Pentagon’s senior ranks. The most prominent change was the replacement of the sitting Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The changes extended well beyond the Joint Chiefs. The dismissals were part of a “rare and major shakeup” that began shortly after the new administration took office not unlike we are seeing in China. Critics argued that the firings were part of an effort to ensure the military is led by individuals loyal to the president rather than being solely focused on their duty to the Constitution.

Them Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a key figure in the overhaul, had previously criticized former General Brown and Admiral Franchetti, questioning whether their promotions were tied to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. He stated the goal was to install new leadership focused on the military’s core mission of “deterring, fighting and winning wars.”

The new Chairman, General Caine, was a retired three-star general whose nomination required a waiver. By law, the Chairman is typically required to have previously served as a four-star general in a role like a service chief or combatant commander. Because Caine retired as a three-star lieutenant general, President Trump had to sign a national interest waiver, allowed under Title 10 of the U.S. Code, for him to be eligible for the position. He was then promoted to four-star general upon his return to active duty

Last year, Rubio has characterized Iran’s leadership as being at its “weakest point in decades,” citing economic collapse and public protests. However, he also warned of Iran’s military capabilities, noting they have amassed “thousands and thousands” of long-range ballistic missiles.

In June 2025, following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (referred to as “Operation Midnight Hammer“), Rubio defended the action in a television interview. When pressed on the intelligence behind the strike, he dismissed the question as “irrelevant,” arguing that Iran had all the necessary components to build a weapon, including 60% enriched uranium.

During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in January 2026, Rubio stated that the U.S. must have a force posture in the Middle East that could, “if necessary, preemptively prevent the attack against thousands of American servicemen and other facilities in the region and our allies.” He explicitly noted that “The President always reserves the preemptive defensive option.“

REGIME CHANGE:

When questioned by Senator John Cornyn about what would happen if Iran’s Supreme Leader were removed, Rubio admitted, “I don’t think anyone can give you a simple answer,” describing the situation as “far more complex” than other recent geopolitical events and something that would require “a lot of careful thinking“

This is the same problem that surfaced from the Iraq War. They never consider anything beyond what is in front of their nose. They removed Saddam and NEVER considered that (1) he kept the crazies in check so we got ISIS, and (2) he was the #1 enemy of Iran. Removing him was to the benefit of Iran.

Removing the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with such a huge military, will most likely lead to some military general and they are cut from the same religious cloth so there is by no means a guarantee that this will change anything.

A PROXY WAR AGAINST THE USA?:

Britain, NATO, EU and the American Neocons have used Ukraine as a proxy war to weaken Russia for the EU thinks it can conquer Russia, get the $75 trillion in assets. That’s why the head of NATO came out and warned these EU leaders if they think that they can defeat Russia without the USA, they are dreaming.

Flights from China and Russia have been arriving in Iran regularly. It is believed that China has not only provided access to their satelites for targeting, but they may have provided their YLC8B Radar system to detect stealth fighter jets and bombers. China’s YLC-8B Radar Transfer to Iran Could Rewrite Middle East Airpower and End Stealth Dominance. The reported deployment of China’s long-range YLC-8B anti-stealth radar in Iran signals a strategic shift in Middle Eastern air defense architecture, directly challenging U.S. and Israeli reliance on fifth-generation stealth aircraft and reshaping regional deterrence dynamics.

This escalation in Beijing’s military-technical support to Tehran, is very significant for this can track stealth fifth-generation aircraft at long range, and appears to have been deployed since the bunker busting of 2025. This is fundamentally reshaping regional airpower assumptions in the Middle East and provides the theatre for China to test its advanced weapons using Iran just as we have used Ukraine against Russia.

This risk here is that with advanced targeting from China, Iran has increased its chances to at least damage an aircraft carrier rendering it inoperable. This can become a proxy war to weaken the United States just as Ukraine has been used to weaken Russia.

A mentioned, then there is this “nuclear ambiguity” where Iran could have nuclear capability just as the early-stage development of countries like Israel or Pakistan during their initial programs where there were no public tests hiding their development. The US has been claiming Iran is close and that was their view in 2007 as then expected they would achieve that by 2009 as John McCain said that in this interview.

Attacking Iran may be the worst idea ever. This is the FISRT adversary with formidable defense capability unlike Iraq, Afghanistan, or Venezuela.