Posted originally on Mar 25, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The Neocons running the Trump administration, as always, are a complete failure when it comes to thinking strategically about Iran or even the Middle East in general. Emails we receive from industry colleagues often mix statements with reality, and uncertainty about the future of a conflict is causing historic supply disruptions and upending industry planning. If Trump declares victory and pulls back the U.S. military, Iran would then say that it owns the Strait and declare victory. Rumors have circulated that Iran would then impose a tax on any ship passing through the Strait, perhaps resulting in a resumption of this crisis.
The overall U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives for Iran remain questionable. What I do know is that there was a private phone call in which Netanyahu manipulated Trump, stressing that he could “make history” by toppling the Ayatollah regime and taking revenge for Iranian efforts to assassinate him, which was central in Trump’s decision to strike when he did.
The classic Neocon claim that America can fight a markedly limited war, and engage in airplane targetry, has never worked even once, and it only demonstrates their dishonest lack of strategy to sell these endless wars. Claiming that naval protection of ships is absurd, for that would prove an impossible challenge and leave major vulnerabilities for the US Navy. That is no more invincible than Israel’s Iron Dome.
Trump’s threats to target Iran energy sector over Strait of Hormuz would have only escalate tensions if Iran did not reopen the Strait in 48 hours. He had to back down and then claim he was in talks with Iran which they instantly denied. I have some info that Trump has gone to Pakistan to present a 15 point peace proposal, which may be sidestepping Netanyahu. However, I have sources which has also said they will no longer deal with Steve Witkoff, or Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who both are Jewish, and clearly a very serious afront to Iran and a major appearance of a conflict of interest. They have to be the worst possible people to negotiate with Iran given the hatred that Netanyahu has publicly made clear about Iran.
Furthermore, the claims that the United States won the war against Iran within the first hour of military action, stating that the conflict quickly tilted in favor of the U.S. However, he also mentioned that American forces would remain deployed until the mission was fully completed. This has been proven to be just bravado and fake news. They also claimed that they destroyed most of Iran’s missile capacity. yet, Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said there had been “very good and productive” talks aiming at halting the war unleashed and unprovoked by the U.S. and Israel.
History not going to come down on Trump’s versions. A year ago, in late March 2025, the U.S. Intelligence Community assessed that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” However, in a congressional hearing about that assessment, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also said, “Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.” Trump instead used Netanyahu’s bogus claims. They never had a missile that could reach the United States, Europe yes, but not the United States. That calls into question the Neocon/Netanyahu lies to start this war just as the Weapons of Mass Destruction never existed in Iraq.
The Western press propaganda shows a ballistic missile being intercepted by Israel. What they fail to explain is the an Iranian Ballistic Missile costs $300,000 of less whole the Israeli interceptors cost $2-$3 million each. Israeli typically launched at least 3 interceptors per Iranian missile and some have said up to 6 interceptors have been fired. A Sling interceptor costs about $1 milion each and an Iron Dome interceptor costs $50,000 each. Iran is bleeding the West dry and even Taiwan has expressed concern that the US is using its entite stockpile of cruise missles meaning they cannot be defended.
Reliable sources placed Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles in preparing for this war with Israel they knew was coming. Some suspect that they could have increased that to closer to 4,000. That does not even include the country’s burgeoning land-attack cruise missile force. Yet, Iran has fired over 400 ballistic missiles since the start of the current conflict as of March 24th, which began on February 28th, 2026. The Western press claims that approximately 92% of these missiles have been intercepted by Israeli air defense systems.
The propaganda comes from the fact that on February 28th, Iran fired around 182 ballistic missiles in a single day. That number has since fallen to single digits. Drone attacks have followed a similar trajectory, dropping from over 200 to fewer than 20. Pete Hegseth claims Iran’s missile volume is “down 90%” and drone attacks have reduced by 95% that means they are running out. What we do know is that Iran has been stockpiling missiles for this end-game war. However, strategic assessments suggest Iran is playing it smart. Let the US and Israel run out of their missiles and then they can flatten Israel for a final blow. Tehran appears to be adapting to mounting reality of this war and to just survive, they must outlast their enemies.
This specific tactic is a variation of the classic “Fabian strategy”—wearing down an enemy through logistics and attrition—and its principles have been used effectively throughout history. This name goes back to the Second Punic War (218–201 BC) when Roman General Fabius Maximus avoided direct battle with Hannibal’s army, instead shadowing it and cutting its supply lines to exhaust the Carthaginian forces. The strategy neutralized Hannibal’s tactical advantages. When it was abandoned, Rome suffered the disastrous defeat at Cannae in 216BC. The Roman Republic did issue this gold stater as a direct response to a national emergency. Hannibal crossed into Italy in 218BC, and the Roman gold stater was minted in the years that followed (circa 225–212 BC) to help finance the war effort.
It was during the monetary reform of 225BC that also introduced gold to the Roman list of denominations for the first time. This gold stater incorporates the familiar Roman Janiform while the reverse was made up of an oath-taking scene. These gold issues were extremely rare and did not make up an everyday circulating currency. Rather, these gold staters were used for very large transactions only.
The propaganda is how they have been degraded militarily. This sounds similar to the story about Russia. Yet, Iran retains the ability to still send 8 waves of ballistic missiles targeting Israel to deplete their defenses and still they can attack ships from shore along a vast stretch of coastline in the wider region. The cost of that attack was perhaps $40 million to Iran, but the cost of defense to Israel was more like $1.5 billion in one incident.
The ONLY way to secured the Strait of Hormuz is to occupy it with boots on the ground. You will have to stage massive troops along the Strait for 50 miles on BOTH sides, plus you will have to penetrate inward 100 miles on each side. Then you will have to create a no-fly zone and that will have to be patrolled and monitored 100% of the time. As long as Iran has the ability to impede the oil traffic and production, they retain leverage that these so-called brilliant minds who never took into account this scenario because their assumed being the biggest military power secures victory.
Iran has anti-ship cruise missiles that could be fired off the back of a pickup truck that can go 100 miles. This is Iran’s Trump Card and the Neocons along with Netanyahu painted an instant victory by simply killing the Ayatollah. They promise victory in just weeks in Iraq, which took 8 years.
Oil was roughly $73 right before the strikes on Iran started on February 28th, and even that price reflected an expectation of hostilities. The entire scheme of killing the Ayatollah is Netanyahu’s strategy and it has never worked. The agreed aim of toppling Iran’s leaders and encouraging regime change has proven a complete failure as took place in Afghanistan and Iraq.
I think anyone who knows Iran, must also understand that this religious regime has been quite good at survival. There was no Plan B for an energy crisis because the Neocons/Netanyahu assumed instant victory. There was no strategic plan for even a short-term war no less a long-term one. I have warned that the strategy would be for Russia and China to use this war as their Proxy to drain the resources of the United States as the US and NATO has used Ukraine against Russia. They cried foul when Russia provided targeting info to Iran yet the US has been providing targeting objectives to Ukraine. Turn this into a proxy war, drain the USA, then by tying up the USA in this Middle East War, that frees Russia to destroy Ukraine outright and China to take Taiwan. Iran has already said that they invited Russia and China to establish bases in Iran.
The bottom line is, they know the intension of Netanyahu and his objective is the total destruction of the Islamic State. It makes perfect sense that they realize this proves that there will NEVER be peace with Israel and that this is a war Netanyahu began demonstrating any hope of peace will be just a delusion for the next attack. Both sides are digging in their heels and both sides see this as the fulfillment of prophecy.
So, we must face reality. The ONLY way this war would be over soon is the total destruction of Iran and the end of the Islamic Republic. There is no negotiation possible since there is no possibility of long-term peace without regime change. Thus, and claim of negotiations are not going to be possible and and the markets are reflecting that long-term. Even the 10-year interest rates are starting to rise overall in anticipation of a protracted war. Trump can forget a Nobel prize for peace.
Perhaps the most fascinating question I have written about before than about one-third of the population see this as Armageddon. But what makes this worse is that essentially both sides see this as the final battle, though in different ways and with important caveats. Trump is clueless as to what he stepped into for Netanyahu has has religious fanaticism begind his decision making.
Netanyahu / Israeli-American Religious Right
Netanyahu has framed the war against Iran in explicitly biblical and messianic terms, rallying a political constituency that sees regional devastation as a holy mandate. When he invokes “the eternity of Israel,” many see this that he’s signaling to those who see end-times warfare as a cosmic necessity.
Most concretely, Netanyahu invoked the Torah shortly after strikes began, comparing Iran to the biblical Amalekites — ancient enemies the Torah commands must be remembered and confronted. “We read in this week’s Torah portion, ‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember – and we act.”
In portions of his speech not included in the official English translation, Netanyahu drew on Purim theology, saying: “In those days of Purim, the lot was cast, and the wicked Haman fell along with it. Even today on the holiday of Purim, the lot was cast, and the end of the evil regime will also come.” When an adversary is cast as the reincarnation of an ancient, irredeemable evil, we must take note that the normal rules of war and human rights tend to evaporate in the minds of those operating within that framework. This was why Netanyahu moved to kill the Ayatolla something not sanctioned by the rules of war.
Since the assassination of the Ayatolla was the very first act, and there can be no argument that he was a military target, this violated every principle of international law which clearly demonstrates nobody gives a shit about anymore. Historically, customary international law granted heads of state immunity from the jurisdiction of other states. However, this immunity is procedural (preventing arrest or prosecution in foreign courts) rather than substantive (making them inviolable targets). Many nations (including the United States via Executive Orders, though these have been interpreted differently by different administrations) prohibit assassination. If there is no ongoing armed conflict between the state conducting the killing and the state of the target, killing a foreign head of state is NOT sanctioned. It constitutes an act of unlawful aggression, a violation of sovereignty, and likely an extrajudicial killing. Since that was the first act of war, it was outrageous and unlawful.
On the American side, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth referred to Iran’s “prophetic Islamic delusions” at a Pentagon briefing, and it was reported that US military commanders were telling troops the war was a biblical step toward Armageddon. One soldier said his commander described Trump as “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran,” according to Al Jazeera.
Iran / Shia “Mahdist” Eschatology
The Iranian side has its own parallel end-times theology that is, if anything, it is far more institutionalized. The Iranian regime considers its nation chosen by Allah to prepare the world for the return of the Twelfth Imam — the Mahdi. They believe that catastrophic world chaos and the defeat of their enemies, especially Israel, are prerequisites for this event. The founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, designated Iran the “Vanguard of the Mahdi.”
Iran’s interpretation of Mahdism requires adherents to take proactive steps to usher in the Mahdi — most notably by initiating an apocalyptic showdown with America and Israel, which are called the “greater” and “lesser” satans. Hardline clerics affiliated with the IRGC cite hadiths claiming the Jewish state will be destroyed before the Mahdi’s arrival, and that Shia Muslims will be on the side of the war against Jews prior to the Mahdi’s reappearance.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is reportedly “obsessed with the end of days.” Some Iranian leaders appear convinced this war may be the Malhama al-Kubra — the great apocalyptic battle against Western powers described in Islamic traditions — which would mean, from their perspective, surrender is literally unthinkable. This is what I have been warning about.
Why This Matters — and the Important Caveats
Most ordinary people on both sides don’t see it this way. Many Iranians are secular or deeply opposed to the regime. Most Israelis support the war for security, not messianic, reasons. Religious eschatology is largely the ideology of ruling elites and hardline factions on both sides, NOT populations. Nevertheless, strategic interests still drive decisions. Netanyahu’s stated war goals — destroying Iran’s nuclear program, and achieving regime change — are conventional strategic aims. Many Israeli analysts say his real endgame is “a heavily diminished Iran,” and that he needs something he can declare a victory on, especially given his corruption trials and political pressures.
The danger of this apocalyptic framing is that it REMOVES all logic of compromise. These leaders are using theological beliefs to justify action, mobilise political opinion, and leverage support claiming they are doing God’s will. When both sides enlist God, the space for negotiated exits become virtually impossible!
So in short, the end-times framing is real, active, and being used rhetorically and ideologically by leadership on both sides — but it coexists with, and is often a cover for, conventional geopolitical and personal interests.
Centinel2012 