Posted originally on CTH on April 24, 2026 | Sundance

A few years ago, I was eating breakfast in a DC hotel listening to two men talk about their schedule for the day.  Their business was decorating homes for Christmas, and they were discussing their heavy workload.

As I listened quietly the men were describing premium rates for DC families who wanted their decorating services completed fastest.  The average rate was $15,000 per residence for 30-day interior holiday decorating, and the rates went up from there. They were overwhelmed with business calls.

I sat there stunned doing spit-takes with my coffee while thinking, “holy cow, who has that kind of money to blow, just renting Holiday decorations?”  One of the client names was familiar, Kellyanne Conway.  “Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, this is an actual thing they do up here,” I thought.  My mind was blown, but this put context to the economic bubble that isolated DC from the rest of ‘real’ America.

Yesterday, I read a New York Times column describing how the professional political employees and their families have been impacted by President Trump and the downsizing of the federal workforce.

Amid the tear-filled typeset meant to generate sympathy this part jumped out at me: “The District of Columbia currently has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, at 6.7 percent, in large part because of major reductions in the federal work force, including U.S.A.I.D., and cuts to government grants and contracts.” {CITATION}

Almost all of the $35 billion spent by USAID in 2024 went to Washington-based contractors, not to people in need overseas.  Eliminating USAID has now created an unemployment problem for all of those DC-based federal contractors, NGOs and USAID employees. The NYT article gives examples of the terrible state of affairs.  This is one:

[…] Sheryl Cowan, 57, was making $272,000 a year as a senior vice president at a U.S.A.I.D.-funded nonprofit when she was let go at the end of March 2025. Last month she had an online interview for a $19-an-hour job managing a Penzeys Spices store near her home in Falls Church, Va.

Her take-home pay would not cover her mortgage but said she was eager to do something other than spending down her savings and has applied for 60 jobs. She has since been called back for an in-person interview. “Aside from the salary, it would be fun,” she said. “I could do it for a little while.” (more)

Ms. Cowan (pictured above) was making $23,000/month working for a nonprofit funded by USAID.  $23,000 a month!

I also saw one of the best responses to this situation outlined by a user on the Twitter:

[…] “The framing wants you to feel outrage at the cruelty of the cuts.

But the actual data point buried in the story is devastating to the narrative it’s trying to build.

272k for a senior VP at a USAID-funded nonprofit is not a real salary. It’s a subsidy. That job existed inside a closed loop: taxpayer money flows to USAID, USAID funds NGOs, NGOs hire professionals at inflated rates, those professionals build lives around compensation that was never stress-tested against the open market.

The entire salary was a function of proximity to the spigot. Not output. Not value creation. Not demand for her specific skills.

The $19/hour number isn’t the system being cruel. It’s the system being honest for the first time. The market is saying: without the government funding stream, your skills at 57 command 39k. That’s the real price. The 272k was the fiction.

And here’s what nobody in that thread will say: there are tens of thousands of people in the DC metro area alone sitting in exactly this position right now. Government-adjacent professionals whose entire compensation structure was built on a funding model that is being unwound. Not by AI, not by automation, but by simple political reallocation. And the market is going to reprice every single one of them.

The deeper pattern is that an entire class of professional jobs in America were never real market jobs. They were artifacts of institutional spending that created its own employment ecosystem. Government, corporate middle management, DEI departments, compliance layers, consulting firms that exist to service other consulting firms. The whole structure was a series of jobs that existed because the money existed, not because the work needed doing at that price.

That structure is now being compressed from multiple directions simultaneously. AI from one side. Spending cuts from another. Corporate efficiency mandates from a third.

And the professional class that built its identity, its mortgages, its kids’ tuitions, its retirement plans around those salaries is about to discover what the open market actually thinks they’re worth.

That’s the repricing.” {source}

I think the Christmas decoration business model now has context.

Perhaps it is a business model that no longer exists, thanks to President Trump.