Posted originally on Dec 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Copper prices are near record highs with spot prices above $11,000 per ton. Grid expansion projects and data centers are copper-intensive, The supply chain in constrained and investors are anticipating future US tariffs reaching 25%. The press is claiming that these projects are the reason for the recent surge in copper hoarding, but the true driver is fear.
Commodities do not move simply because of “supply and demand” in the textbook sense. They move because of capital flows and confidence. Copper has always been called “Dr. Copper” because it supposedly has a PhD in economics. People believe the metal has an ability to predict overall global economic health, especially in terms of manufacturing. The old wives tale states that rising copper prices indicate economic recovery and growth since one would assume manufacturing is increasing.
When people begin hoarding raw materials, it means they no longer trust supply chains, governments, or currencies. This is exactly what happened in the 1970s. Inflation was not caused by “greed” or corporations. Rather, it was caused by government deficits, war spending, and the collapse of confidence in public institutions. The same forces are now aligning again.
Once politicians declare something “critical,” it ceases to be a free market. Governments are now talking openly about stockpiling copper for green energy, military use, and infrastructure. That alone guarantees shortages, because bureaucrats always buy at the worst possible time and hoard at the peak. Trade wars, sanctions, and geopolitical uncertainty force companies to hold excess inventory to hedge against supply chain constraints.
From the standpoint of the Economic Confidence Model, this fits precisely with the transition from private confidence to public distrust. Capital always moves to where it feels safest. When confidence in government collapses, money does not stay in bonds or paper promises. It moves into real assets, whether that is gold, land, energy, or copper sitting in a warehouse.
Posted originally on Dec 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
October retail sales were flat following a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in September, missing expectations yet again. This is precisely the type of number that gets spun as “resilient” or “temporary softness,” depending on the political agenda. But when you actually break the data apart, the internal contradictions tell us far more than the headline figure ever could.
Consumer spending feeds into GDP, and retail sales excluding food, autos, and gas surged by 0.8%. That is a strong rebound from September’s decline and above expectations. Consumers are spending albeit defensively.
Auto sales dropped sharply, down 1.6%, which should surprise no one. Auto affordability has collapsed under the weight of high interest rates, extended loan terms, and mounting delinquencies. People stop buying big-ticket items that require financing when confidence wanes and inflation persists.
Food services declined, consistent with job losses in the hospitality sector. Building materials and garden equipment also declined as house-related spending cools. Furniture, sporting goods, nonstore retailers, clothing, electronics, and general merchandise rose but we are in the midst of the Q4 holiday shopping rush.
We are transitioning from an inflationary shock phase into a confidence erosion phase. Spending does not collapse all at once. Rather, spending fragments as consumers become more selective. Smaller discretionary spending on items like merchandise seems more manageable than larger purchases that require financing. Policymakers will insist everything is fine because GDP has not collapsed, but we are witnessing a clear loss of momentum.
As we move toward 2026, the models continue to point toward rising volatility, weaker capital formation, and a growing divergence between what governments say and how people actually behave. Retail sales are telling a story of adaptation before contraction.
The above is a video representing the mind on socialism. “Free buses means that less drivers will get assaulted so the buses will become safer,” the newly elected New York City mayor concluded.
This is the same logic that believes defunding the police will equate to fewer arrests. It’s the same logic San Francisco used when telling citizens to leave their car doors unlocked to prevent thieves from smashing their windows. Toronto police suggested that citizens leave their car doors open to prevent home invasions. Socialists reframe crime as social injustice that couldbe eliminated through economic equality.
Inequality and capitalism are responsible for the crime rather than the criminal himself.
During the French Revolution of 1789 involved releasing prisoners in an event known as the Storming of the Bastille. Lenin famously emptied the prisons during the 1917 Russian Revolution. Destabilizing society gives the government a reason to expand. The criminal becomes the victim and crime explodes because there are no repercussions. Those who produce are punished through taxation as they believe YOUR wealth must be redistributed.
Economic injustice victims are needed for the Cloward-Piven strategy— overburden the bureaucracy to break the system, create controlled chaos, usurp power as civil unrest peaks, and offer government aid as the only solution.
“Once eligibility for basic food and rent grants is established, the drain on local resources persists indefinitely.” Cloward and Piven wanted to overburden the welfare system at the state level to eliminate state rights. Therefore, under this theory, government is encouraged to market a crisis, antagonize the people, and offer a solution. The only solution being to replace capitalism with socialism or communism by which the people would be entirely dependent on government. You will own nothing and be happy.
Posted originally on Dec 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
People who ask me if I would ever run for politics or accept a position the answer is ABSOLUTELY no way because if it was me testifying before Marilyn Strickland (born 1962) a Representative from Washington State, I would have made her day. She is so unqualified to hold any office it is why we are in such a crisis. She is the first member of the United States Congress of both Korean and African-American heritage, and the first African-American member elected from Washington. That was the cheering point – it was all about ethnic background and race – not qualification?
Ukraine is the motherland of ethnic cleansing. They were killing Polish, Jews, and Russians. Hitler promised them a country, which they NEVER had, so they became Nazis and and began killing anyone who was not of Ukrainian blood. The CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis because they also hatred Russia. So it did not matter how many Jews they killed. That was sanctions as long as they were also killing Russians. NOT a single Ukrainian was ever put on trial like the Germans for their wear crimes.
As soon as there was the 2014 Revolution which we instigated with John McCain there at Maidan advocating the overthrow of the government against international law and Victoria Nuland handing out sandwiches to the revolutionaries, and then handpicked the interim government which then they instructed to attack the Russian in the Donbas. That was NOT an elected government. This was a NEOCON installed government intended yo start this war with Russia.
Strickland is ignorant of the facts as she wants total war with Russia pushed out of Ukraine and the Russians Russian people of the Donbas should then be subject to Kiev’s ethnic cleansing which started this mess. She is not interested in the fact and clearly is supporting the Ukrainian Nazis at this point.
Many Ukrainians are still Neo-Nazis and hate Russians. They still march with images of the ethnic cleanser Bandara who had Polish, Russians, and Jewish pregnant women cut open, removed their babies, and sewn in live cats. This has all been documented.
Bandara who start the ethnic cleansing in Ukraine is still a national hero. His picture was all over Maidan. This is why I do not want to EVER have any such position in government because I would not be so kind. I would have tore her apart on national TV and set the record straight and ask her so you support the same agenda as Adolf Hitler and the CIA to just kill Russians? So you agree with your Republican Adversary Lindsey Graham this is the best money we ever spent to kill the Russian people? What if you said that about Blacks, Muslims, Jews, or Christians?
Her statement that Russia will then attack a NATO nation. That is a Neocon propaganda. Russian went into the Donbas to protect Russians – not to conquer Ukraine. If you do not understand your enemy, you will lose in this war. Her stupidity is brining us closer to World War III with every stupid word.
Posted originally on Dec 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Christine Lagarde is now warning that Europe faces an “existential crisis” unless urgent reforms are enacted. What she is really admitting is that Europe has reached the end of the centralized model. These are 28 independent nations that were never intended to operate as a single homogeneous culture or economy.
Europe’s problem is not monetary policy. Central banks do not create growth. They merely move liquidity around the system. Growth comes from capital formation, innovation, and confidence. Europe has systematically destroyed all three by punishing success, attacking private enterprise, excessive taxation and regulations. “Would rock-bottom interest rates or QE change the barriers I was talking about? No,” she admitted after years of failed policy.
Lagarde claims that internal trade barriers are now strangling Europe, which is astonishing only because those barriers were intentionally created. Every new regulation raised costs and reduced flexibility. Environmental mandates, tax harmonization, and bureaucratic oversight did not make Europe competitive.
“There will be pushback from multiple corners… from people who say: ‘We’re very happy in our corner of Europe, leave us alone,’” she said. The mass socialized project of ensuring the health of all 28 member states is a failure. Nations do not want to curb their economic growth to build up the economy of another nation. These nations also do not necessarily want to invest billions into a war when Europe is not technically at war. “We did so for COVID because it was a matter of survival,” Lagarde said in response to collective defense funding. “Defence is equally a matter of survival and emergency,” she said, calling it “a perfect case in point” for common issuance.
Capital has been fleeing Europe for years, not because of interest rates, but because confidence has collapsed. When governments constantly change the rules and treat capital as an enemy, long-term investment disappears. Europe has borrowed to maintain living standards rather than to increase productivity. That is the classic path of decline. History shows repeatedly that when debt rises faster than output, systems break. What Lagarde calls an “existential crisis” is simply the moment when that reality can no longer be ignored.
This is not a problem that can be solved with reforms from Brussels. The euro was destined to fail from the outset. The computer has been warning since the dawn of the euro and eurozone that the day WILL come when Europe fragments and nations once again choose sovereignty over centralized control.
Posted Posted originally on on Dec 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Payrolls in the US declined by 105,000 in October, followed by a 64,000 uptick in November, according to the delayed nonfarm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment now sits at 4.6%–a four-year high.
The November jobs data was delayed because a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted the normal collection of labor market surveys. That alone introduces uncertainty, yet it also amplifies the significance of the patterns we do observe.
Naturally, a portion of lost jobs in October were due to the government shutdown, but the downward trend has emerged. Around 162,000 government positions were shed in October, followed by an additional 6,000 in November. These jobs are inconsequential as they do not add to the economy. October was the third time in the past six months that payrolls went into negative territory. Per usual, previous reports were revised downward. August’s report was revised to show a decline of 26,000 jobs compared to the initially reported 26,000, with 11,000 more jobs lost in September.
The 64,000 additional jobs in November may have beaten expectations, but averaged around 35,000 net jobs per month based on recent readings, which indicated stagnation rather than expansion.
Health care was responsible for 70% of new hires last month, or 46,000 positions. Construction also experienced a notable gain of 28,000. Transportation and warehousing decreased by 18,000 as AI takes over those positions. Leisure and hospitality shed 12,000.
The number of people holding more than one job increased, as did the number of discouraged workers and those adding part-time jobs to make ends meet to 8.7%. This high has not been seen since August 2021 when the US economy was slowly recovering from lockdowns.
December’s report will be released ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting in January, but the Fed cannot change the labor market through rates. The central bank cut rates three times this year and nothing changed. Expect slower growth, rising unemployment, and a re-evaluation of rate policy in early 2026.
Posted originally on Dec 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates has forecast a global recession into 2028. Unemployment remains low, yet layoffs continue to make headlines. Inflation has slowed, but grocery prices keep rising. Corporate profits have climbed, but small businesses are struggling. Europe is imploding as you warned they would face a depression, while we have stagflation. We are also entering a period of increased earthquakes and volcanic activity, as you forecast. You also forecast that we will be entering a period of dramatic population decline going into 2040. At the 2024 WEC, you said the Democratic Party was moving toward a split. All of this is a backdrop to your war forecasts. You also forecast that China would surpass the United States a decade ago. You said that AI is like the Internet, which also displaced jobs. Is all of this part of the reorganizing of the world post-2032?
Ken
ANSWER: Yes. I have explained before, the birth rate declines the richer a country becomes. The Roman Emperor Augustis (27BC-13ADF) passed Family Laws for this very reason. The average age for a girl to have her first child in 1933 was 23 years old. That is now reaching 30 years old and the birth rate is collapsing. This is part of the reason why they have let in the migrants. By 2030. the birth rate in the UK will be short 1 million babies while there will be 1 million more pensioners. The pension system are ponzi schemes that were based on the presumption that the population was always rising. The entire financial system is in crisis.
The US, Japan, Europe, and even Singapore are facing population collapse by 2032. France reported the lowest birthrate since 1919. The typical excuse is that having children is a burden. It is too costly and the future is too uncertain. When my parents were living, one salary supported the family. Today, because of excessive taxation, it takes two salaries and people are not confortable with that.
We are also in a transition period. Our most significant risk is like the 19th-century transition to the Industrial Revolution. Marx and others did not understand the transition process. They saw a farmer now as a factory worker and the capitalist made money from his labor, while ignoring the creation of jobs.
It is a Schumpeter version of creative destruction. The old establishment collapses, replaced by the new economic trend. Marx was influenced by Aristotle, who also did not understand the transition as Athens became the world’s new financial capital. Brokers were encouraging farmers to produce more because they could sell grain to other city-states. Aristotle called the men who made money from money. Aristotle saw that this was changing the Villa Economy, where people were self-sufficient and were being transformed into a market economy.
The transition to the Industrial Revolution ignited socialism/communism. These radical ideas of monetary equality rather than civil right equality led to class warfare. By 1912, Teddy Roosevelt launched the failed Progressive Party. But by 1913, their hatred and class warfare gave us the income tax to punish the wealthy and this level of monetary resentment led to two world wars. All of this is a trend that unfortunately leads to war as the final culmination of class warfare and hatred.
Communism collapsed 72 years after the upheaval of 1917. The Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957. The 72-year Revolution Cycle brings us again to 2029. Socialism is collapsing the same as communism in Russia and China. The radical idea of the 19th century which have killed hundreds of millions in the name of equality, are coming to their same inefficient realization. This is why you see Europe desperate attacking free speech etc.
There are times when earthquakes and volcanoes cluster together. That took place during the 19th century. That led to the year without a summer in 1816 and Napoleon was defeated by two volcanoes. The year 2025 should have produced more volcanoes and earthquakes. We just had a double earthquake one in Japan and then in Alaska.
Japan sits on the western edge of the Pacific Plate, where the Pacific Plate subducts beneath. Alaska sits on the northern–eastern edge of the Pacific Plate, where the Pacific Plate subducts beneath. Japan and Alaska are on opposite sides of the Pacific Plate and both are part of the Pacific Ring of Fire as both experience megathrust subduction earthquakes. The computer simply looks at the data and calculated the cycles. This does not look like it will calm down before 2032.
Posted originally on Dec 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
🚨 BOMBSHELL: Border Czar Tom Homan just confirmed they’ve located over 62,000 unaccompanied kids who vanished after Biden’s open border disaster let them in.
Mass migration through open border policies is inhumane. I may often focus on the economic implications, but it is crucial to understand how these policies have destroyed the very people they claim to protect. Thousands of men, women, and children have died in their attempt to reach the West. Unaccompanied minors have gone missing—millions of children lost—most likely becoming victims of human trafficking organizations.
Border czar Tom Homan announced that 62,000 children have been rescued from forced labor and sexual slavery through the Trump Administration’s border control policies. “Over half a million children were smuggled into this country under Joe Biden,” Homan said. “They lost track of 300,000. President Trump committed on day one that we will do everything we can to find every one of these children. We know many of them are in sex trafficking. Many are in forced labor. Many are being abused,” Homan added. “I can’t discuss some of the mistreatment we found out about. President Trump again proved why he’s the greatest president in my lifetime. Over 62,000 children rescued.”
Sadly, this figure is a mass underreporting since the government does not know how many children have gone missing. Under Biden, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released nearly 300,000 notices after detention who were unaccompanied, in a foreign nation alone. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and every proponent of open border policies has blood on their hands. Based on this small scaled sample, around a quarter of a million CHILDREN ARE MISSING! No one had been looking for them.
Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra became Biden’s scapegoat after he publicly failed to answer questions surrounding missing minors. Their goal was to lower the number of minors in US detention facilities to appease the “kids in cages” crowd who believed vulnerable minors would be better off “free” to roam the US. These children never stood a chance. Some of the children were released to unvetted sponsors with little to no documentation.
The left insists these minors are happily living with relatives and merely hiding from the big bad authorities. In truth, hundreds
A woman was leaving a church in Savannah, Georgia, when an unknown man poured acid over her body. The woman survived but has second and third-degree burns covering 50% of her body and will be permanently disfigured. At this time, authorities are not labeling this as a hate crime.
Acid attacks have become more commonplace in countries with excessive immigration from Islamic nations. The United Kingdom, for example, has the highest rate of acid attacks across the West, with 1,244 offenses happening since 2022. Why is this happening?
The answer can be found in the Quran, and specifically, the chapter on The Women:
Surah 4:56 “Indeed, those who disbelieve in Our verses – We will drive them into a Fire. Every time their skins are roasted through We will replace them with other skins so they may taste the punishment. Indeed, Allah is ever Exalted in Might and Wise.”
Surah 4:57 “But those who believe and do righteous deeds – We will admit them to gardens beneath which rivers flow, wherein they abide forever. For them therein are purified spouses, and We will admit them to deepening shade.”
I have not seen any media outlet stating this clear, concrete fact. Yes, people have misinterpreted religious texts since the dawn of time. But Islamic EXTREMISTS who have flooded the West believe this literal translation. Not only do women deserve “punishment” by having their skin “roasted through,” but Allah will show favor to the men carrying out the execution.
Again, extremists are taking this literal interpretation and applying it to their new taxpayer-subsidized lives in Western nations. There is a word for this punishment— vitriolage. Places like Bangladesh have had to impose the death sentence to prevent extremists from attacking women. It is one of the cruelest, inhumane forms of violence that is becoming commonplace in Western societies due to open border policies. Yet another open border import. Western women and Islamic ideology do not mix. This was a HATE crime carried out by a person who has no place in Western society, or any society for that matter.
Posted originally on Dec 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The glory that was Greece is of another day. The EU is dominated by LEFTIST all following Marx and assume that they can just order people to comply under penalty of one thing or another. Greece has implemented laws requiring taxpayers to provide proof of spending 30% of their annual income through electronic payments, imposing fines for those who only use cash. This move aims to reduce tax evasion and increase government revenue in a country with a significant shadow economy.
The Great Hunt for Taxes
Greece has implemented measures to force cashless transactions in an effort to kill the underground economy. The government aims to reduce tax evasion and increase revenue by requiring citizens to use electronic payments that began in 2020. Taxpayers must provide proof of spending 30% of their annual income through electronic receipts. The citizens of Greece must meet that requirement to avoid a penalty of up to 22 % on the shortfall.
The Greek government believes that transitioning to a cashless economy will help combat the underground economy, which has been a significant issue. Estimates suggest that undeclared goods and services accounted for a substantial portion of Greece’s GDP. BITCOIN was created by the NSA – no Japanese fictional character named Satoshi Nakamoto. (Satoshi)=means “wise,” “clever,” or “quick learner.” 中 (Naka) means “Middle,” “inside,” or “central.” 本 (Moto) means “Origin,” “base,” or “book.” The name means Wise Central Book, which is precisely what the government wants – 100% taxation. Greece is now forcing people to abandon cash in preparation for the Digital Euro to eliminate the underground economy making everything 100% taxable even that $100 Christmas gift to a grandchild.
Many Greeks are resistant to these changes, viewing them as another form of tax increase and loss of liberty. There are concerns about privacy and the practicality of enforcing such a system. Consequently, there has been a massive exodus from Greece with nearly 1 million have fled since 2010 generally for economic reasons. Greece remains in a sovereign-debt crisis and the higher they impose taxes the less economic activity. Youth unemployment over 55%.
Historically, the first target an oppressive government seeks to control is always the press. Once they control the press, as they do today with all the FAKE News, that is the beginning of the decline and fall of not just LIBERTY, but of the nation and in the end our civilization. This is the real danger of main stream media. They are promoting World War III and they blocking individuals targeted by the government as they did with COVID. Once in power, government assumes it is the sovereign and represents society. They confound the people with government, leaving no distinction between them. With socialism, they convince themselves that they act in our best interest when it is always to just retain power. The people are the true sovereign of the nation – not those in power.
Yet they accused Snowden of Treason for telling the people that the government was illegally monitoring them. Diane Feinstein revealed to the world her unconstitutional statement clearly claiming it is the government who constitutes the nation not the people. Although Chisholm v. Georgia (1793) was overturned by the 11th Amendment, giving States the right not to be sued claiming sovereign immunity. The Court held they did not so in 1795, the government showed it first walk down the path of tyranny and held that government is above the law. Nonetheless, in that decision we find the most direct Constitutional challenge to tyranny.
Justice James Wilson’s opinion is the most famous. He argued that in the United States, ultimate sovereignty rests with “the People of the United States,” not with the state governments. He stated that the Constitution was ordained and established by “We the People,” and therefore, the people are the sovereign, and the states are not sovereign in the sense of being immune from the people’s will as expressed in the Constitution.
The statement that “the people do not have the right to overthrow the government” is a core principle of authoritarian, absolutist, and totalitarian systems throughout history and in the present day. This idea is not typically associated with democratic or republican systems, which are founded on principles of popular sovereignty (the idea that the authority of the government is created and sustained by the consent of its people).
Justice Scalia admitted that we live under tyranny. He wrote in a letter: “If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.” Hence, “We the People” are purely economic slaves. We have no right to dissent, no right to secede no matter how authoritarian the government becomes. In the EU, it is even worse. There is no right for the people to vote for the head of the EU. All the people who make decrees NEVER stand for election and that was the intentional design to prevent the people from having any say whatsoever. This is what is coming to a head by 2032. When governments usurp the same powers held by a monarch, the divine right of kings, history warns the end is not far behind.
The UK has also now introduced rules requiring digital asset traders to report personal data for tax compliance starting in 2026 — but this is about reporting, not spending minimum requirements. UK government and HMRC are implementing reporting rules for digital platforms and digital assets to improve transparency and combat tax evasion — focused on reporting income rather than requiring a minimum level of digital spending.
EU-wide tax initiatives tend to focus on information exchange, reporting rules, digital invoicing, and anti-fraud measures rather than imposing spending quotas on individual taxpayers. For example, the EU’s Central Electronic System of Payments (CESOP) requires payment providers to share data on cross-border transactions to help tax authorities monitor VAT fraud, but does not impose spending minimums on individuals.
Wikipedia
EU information-sharing directives strengthen cooperation between tax authorities across countries to tackle evasion but don’t mandate minimum digital spending percentages. The EU is hunting money like never before. This is indicative of the own sovereign debt crisis that is coming to a head. Of course, Greece won’t have to worry once the EU cancels the paper currency sooner than later.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 