Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Feb 2 2026

Majority of Americans Want Voter ID Laws


Posted originally on Feb 2, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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A recent poll by Quantus Insights indicates that 74% of registered US voters believe photo ID should be required by law to vote. Nearly half (49.3%) “strongly support” the measure, while only 16% stated they “strongly” or “somewhat” oppose such legislation.

Every serious financial and legal transaction in modern society requires identification. You cannot open a bank account, board a plane, cash a check, or enter many government buildings without ID. Yet we are told that verifying identity for the selection of the most powerful positions in government is somehow unique. That argument simply does not hold up under rational scrutiny.

The real issue behind voter ID is not left versus right. It is something far more fundamental that people keep missing. Every system of government rises and falls on confidence. Once the public begins to doubt the integrity of the process, it begins to question the system.

A year ago, Romanian citizens questioned the validity of their elections and the importance of their vote after the constitutional court annulled Calin Georgescu’s presidential election. Countless people asked, “Why bother voting?” The same line of thinking applies to US elections, where rampant voter fraud has become commonplace.

VoterIDmeme

Mail-in ballots led to Joe Biden securing 81 million votes—more than any president in American history. Polls indicated that fewer Americans were choosing to participate in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Gerrymandering, mail-in ballots, thousands of votes cast on behalf of dead voters, prohibiting citizens from being required to show identification and therefore permitting illegals to vote – the last election was a complete disaster, and this one will be no different. One in five Americans actually admitted to committing election fraud in 2020. Republicans were more prone to committing election fraud, but studies found that Donald Trump would have been the clear winner if mail-in ballots were prohibited.

Only one political party opposes voter ID requirements. None of the G7 nations permit people to vote without showing identification. I could not show up in Germany and expect to have a say in the future of their nation – absolutely absurd. It is categorically astonishing that the left has convinced a subset of the population that asking for identification is racist or oppressive.

The election has degraded into a performance that is meant to give the public the perception that they have an actual say in the direction of the nation. You have no say in government spending, debt, or future wars. It is an utter illusion to believe that the powerful elite in Washinton within the establish care about the wishes of the people.

Feb 2 2026

Beware of February Onward


originally on Posted Feb 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

iranian Rial M Array 1 31 26

COMMENT:

Hyperinflation and sanctions on cue in Iran, 103.2 years before Weimar.

Iran headed to 47.3 year peak in early 2027 on ECM from hostage taking, after which people will no longer have confidence in revolutionaries (on public/private ECM alternation).

Why not just recommend that US just let Iran fall on its own, to avoid potentially entangling China and Russia if US strikes first?

Thank you always!

JH

Beware of February 2

REPLY: I fully agree that Iran will fall all by itself just like Communism. You cannot have any religion dictate to the economy. Communism was in effect a religion that was atheism and sought to also control human nature suppressing it into one version fits all. The risk of Iran is that they may lash out of desperation and use war to try to cling to power. The problem I see is that February is showing up around many markets. Volatility will rise from February. Blackrock is writing down its private debt portfolio by 19% due to losses. Wait until they have to write down Ukraine. There are a lot of financial minefields out there in addition to the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Japan and EU.

Feb 1 2026

IRAN into 2027


Posted originally on Feb 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

IRAN ECM

QUESTION: Do you still see the risk of a Middle East War by 2027?

HF

ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. I will do a Report on the Middle East for 2026.

The Paradox of a Regime That Can’t Afford Peace

Let me start with the question everyone’s asking wrong: “Will Iran start another war with Israel?”

Wrong question. The right question is: Can Iran’s regime survive WITHOUT war?

The answer is no. And understanding why reveals everything about what’s coming in 2026 and beyond. Iran is facing its worst domestic crisis since the 1979 Revolution. As we have witnessed, starting December 28, 2025—just six months after the war—massive protests erupted across all 31 provinces. What began as economic demonstrations over hyperinflation and currency collapse rapidly evolved into demands for wholesale regime change. This isn’t like 2009’s Green Movement or 2022’s protests after Mahsa Amini’s death. This is different.

The economic devastation from sanctions, war damage, and decades of mismanagement has severed the social contract even with traditional regime supporters—the Bazaaris (merchant class) who helped bring Khomeini to power in 1979. When you lose the Bazaar, you’ve lost Iran. The shopkeepers shuttering stores in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar aren’t revolutionaries—they’re businessmen who can no longer operate because inflation destroyed the currency and the economy is broken. By early January 2026, Iranian police detained over 21,000 suspects during the unrest, including 260 accused of spying and 172 for illegal filming. Several Kurdish men were executed publicly for alleged collaboration with Israel.

Think about that. The regime is executing people for “collaboration” while simultaneously trying to rebuild military capabilities to fight Israel again. That’s not the behavior of a confident government. That’s desperation.

Why War Becomes Necessary

From a cyclical perspective, Iran’s regime is trapped between two lethal forces:

External Pressure:

Nuclear program set back 1-2 years (rebuilding frantically)
Proxy network (Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria) decimated
Direct military confrontation exposed defensive weaknesses
U.S. and Israel signaling willingness to strike again in 2026
Regional Arab states increasingly skeptical of Iran as stabilizing force

Internal Collapse:

Hyperinflation destroying purchasing power
Water scarcity creating agricultural crisis
Youth unemployment astronomical
Brain drain of educated class
Massive protests demanding regime change
Even security forces expressing financial desperation (viral videos of police officers describing severe hardship)

Middle East 2026
Feb 1 2026

The Dark Side of Humanity?


Posted originally on Feb 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong

Dark Side of Humanity 1

QUESTION: Thank you for your efforts to reduce the amplitude of war. It is really remarkable that a person’s talents, wisdom, or achievements are often undervalued or dismissed by those in his own country. You were called in by China to help them become capitalist. Gorbachev also came to you for guidance on the USSR’s fall. Margaret Thatcher came to you to justify keeping the pound out of the euro. And they came to you when designing the euro. Yet the United States government refuses to take your advice. It makes no sense that Congresswoman Luna, who was meeting with Russians professing to be anti-war, you say you do not advise. At least Trump sent you a thank you letter.  Matthew 13:57 records the same treatment. Jesus said:

“And they took offense at him. But Jesus said to them, ‘A prophet is not without honor except in his hometown and in his own household.’”

Anyone in the media who professes to be independent and refuses to show you any respect reveals their own dishonesty. Other people who will plagiarize your work, lack the database, and refuse to credit you, also revealing their dishonesty.

This curious aspect here is that you are sought after internationally, but most try to ignore you in the United States. The movie on you the Forecaster I saw on a flight from Europe to Canada and it was on Canadian TV but banned in America. I do not understand this bias against our own people. They loved Marx, who was German, Keynes, who was British, and even Piketty, who is French. I guess it’s like French wine is supposed to be better than California.

Do you have any insight into why this takes place?

RL

Economist Trump Greenland

ANSWER: In the case of Jesus, the townspeople’s familiarity with him, as an ordinary human, blinded them to his divine identity and authority. They could not see past “Joseph’s son” to accept him as the Messiah. I think it is perhaps jealousy. Even a head of state like Trump is always criticized as a person, which ignores the fact that as president he represents the nation. It just appears that it is always personal. In some cases they hate me for the forecast – kill the messenger when you do not like the news. Others are jealousy. Despite the fact that I try to distinguish a forecast is made by the computer rather than my personal opinion, they will still attack me personally and say I am wrong ignoring the computer altogether.

Denmark_s_Genocidal_Practices_in_Greenland

It is just the dark side of humanity. Look at the European press. You cannot find a single positive article about Trump in the Economist.  To them, unless you are handing money to illegal migrants and never utter a single complaint, then you are fair target. They will never explain that Greenland is part of North America – not Europe. They will not discuss how Denmark was sterilisering girls  to stop the births of Inuit people in Greenland from the 1960s to as recently as 1991.

Danish Empire Map

Greenland is not an asset of Denmark or Europe. It is not strategic in the least to their national security. What this dispute is REALLY about is that the surrender of Greenland is reall the last vestige of Imperialism for Europe as a whole.

Greenland Globe Map

Greenland is part of the North American Plate – not Europe. When I was in programming back in the late ’60s at RCA, they manned Tuli Greenland site which monitored the top of the globe with NORAD as a defense against missiles launched by Russia over the top of the globe. It was always a strategic based that even protected Europe. This is all about arrogance and pride and the surrender of Greenland means the last of the Imperialism of Europe.

There is a very Dark Side of humanity and I believe it is driven by hatred, jealousy, and self-interest.

Jan 31 2026

Zelensky the War Criminal


Posted originally on Jan 31, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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COMMENT: Marty, congrats. That is a thank you letter for writing that peace plan. But the rumors are that Trump is going to reduce the size of American bases in NATO. I believe you are right. They came to you because you are on the opposite side of the Neocons for the same reason they would come to you because you are on the opposite side of the bankers in a crisis. You have endured so much and you keep fighting.

God Bless.

DD

ANSWER: Yes, I believe I was called in because there is a divide with the Neocons pushing for war so they knew I had the sources and the contacts to be on the opposite side of the table. These Neocon Wars since Korea have undermined the economy, broke the bank of Bretton Woods, and has cost countless millions of lives all for their personal hatreds. They NEVER consider the nation or the inflation that they will create to achieve their war objectives which has so drastically altered the future for the youth. They only carte about their objectives in total isolation of everything else.

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I reported on the private blog that Trump has conditioned the surrender of the Donbas to get security guarantees. That seems to be out in the press now. That is honoring the Minsk Agreement. Had the EU and Zelensky just honored what they signed, there would NEVER have been a war.

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I am just so tired of the lies of this piece of shit who is trying to create World War III because he is a Neo-Nazi.

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The day before Russia came to the aid of the Donbas in this civil war that Kiev started on the alleged orders of Victoria Nuland, to ensure Putin would cross the border, he declared that Ukraine would rearm with nuclear weapons. That was the final straw; Putin even noted that in his address to Russia. It was not any different than the JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Zelensky did not tell people about invasion

The Washington Post found out that Zelensky knew when Russia would cross the border and did not warn his people. Like Hamas, he wanted civilians to be killed so he could blame Russia. When asked why he did not warn his people, he said it would have cost him $7 billion dollars. That is a war criminal.

Jan 30 2026

Lab-Grown Meat Marketed to Children


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Are we eating real, whole food? The USDA and FDA permit companies to sell barely consumable “food” filled with chemicals to the American public. Studies confirm that these processed foods often lead to health issues and have caused the nation to lead in the obesity epidemic. Prepare for the situation to worsen as lab-grown meat is now being marketed to children.

Lab-grown meat has been readily available for years, thanks in part to mega initiatives bankrolled by the likes of Bill Gates. You are the carbon that they wish to eliminate. “You will eat bugs,” as the infamous Klaus Schwab line goes, was merely the beginning of what the globalists, intent on ushering in the Great Reset, have planned for the masses. Food production is bad for the environment; therefore, people must resort to lab-created synthetic products.

Millions of children around the world subscribe to an online personality named Mr. Beast. He recently took his young audience for a tour of a $200 million plant run by Upside Foods that produces hundreds of thousands of pounds of fake meat. Mr. Beast (Jimmy Donaldson) explains to his young audience that “meat” grown from animal cells does not require slaughter. It requires less strain on the environment as water, land, and emissions are minimal. The online celebrity tells his young audience that it tastes as good as real meat, and strongly suggests normalizing lab-grown menu items.

Mr. Beast has partnered with the Rockefeller Foundation and has been called “the new Bill Gates.” The FDA and USDA has already provided Upside Food the authority to sell “cell-cultivated meat product” to the public. Mr. Beast’s role is peddling this fake food to children who are adaptable and more willing to accept new norms.

No one knows the health consequences of lab-grown meat on public health. The World Economic Forum insisted that the world must decrease its meat consumption. First, the WEF took an environmental, climate-change approach, but now it will claim that livestock consume too much water.

Bill Gates is a huge investor in this mechanism. Gates said all wealthy nations should switch to synthetic meat, buy up vast tracts of farmland, and invest in his own cultivated-meat business. The cultivated fake meat industry was valued at around $247 million in 2022, and it is expected to spike to $25 billion by 2030 – right on time for Agenda 2030. The Food Safety and Inspection Service has not determined how they will label these products; therefore, you may be eating pre-cancerous fake meat cells without your knowledge in the near future. What easier way to ensure these products end up in your refrigerator than to market them to impressionable children who do not understand the dangers?

Jan 30 2026

Cost of Living Rising Faster in Blue Cities


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

World Highest Standard of Living

Cycles are often systemic, predictable, and, as I have long argued, often the result of policy distortions interacting with underlying structural forces. The latest data showing where the cost of living is rising fastest in the United States is a textbook example of how centralized, urban-centric policies can create persistent price pressures and distort economic incentives.

According to a new study by Plasma, the cities where the cost of living is rising fastest are:

  1. New York City
  2. San Diego, California
  3. San Francisco, California
  4. Los Angeles, California
  5. Seattle, Washington
  6. Boston, Massachusetts
  7. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  8. San Jose, California
  9. Chicago, Illinois
  10. Baltimore, Maryland
Housing

All of these metros are either solidly Democratic blue or dominated by policies implemented by progressive leadership. Broader evidence shows higher costs in blue states and blue cities due to higher regulation, taxes, and constrained housing supply.

While red and purple cities also experience price pressures, the magnitude is markedly different. Berkley conducted a study to determine why costs rise rapidly in blue-driven areas. Data show blue stated and the cities within them exhibit higher cost structures compared to their red and purple counterparts, particularly in housing. Berkley noted that the trend of higher costs in blue states has been a 15-year trend in the making. “A combination of high demand for housing and restrictions on supply that lead to shortage drive high housing costs in blue states,” the study notes.

The study looks at  Regional Price Parities (RPP) data, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) annually to determine national pricing levels. Each element of RPP, from housing, utilities, goods, and services, is distinctly higher in blue states. Utilities, as of 2023, were 45% more expensive in blue states, while housing jumped 52% higher than purple or red areas.

Blue states have greater levels of regulation-driven housing shortages. “Environmental regulations and policies promoting clean energy likely play a role,” the study admits. Zoning restrictions have prevented blue areas from creating enough housing to meet demand.

Urban centers like New York, San Francisco, and Boston are global magnets for capital and labor. The concentration of finance, tech, and high-skill jobs amplifies price pressure. Higher demand leads to higher costs, which leads higher wage demands and overall price levels. But policies will not permit the market to operate freely, and areas are reserved for government-approved housing. Government makes it increasingly difficult to build housing that they cannot control and monitor. Interventions like rent controls and mandates further distorts supply.

These areas also have massive budget shortfalls. New York City’s self-proclaimed socialist mayor Mamdani admitted that high earners will need to pay more in taxes to meet budget deficits. That plan has never worked and only successfully leads to capital flight. The drastic difference in pricing between blue and red or purple cities and states shows how policy and policed markets can distort pricing.

Jan 30 2026

Physical Bank Branches Disappearing – Relationship Banking is Dead


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

bankteller

Physical bank branches are disappearing along with relationship banking. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) files state that the US lost a net total of 339 bank branches in December 2025. The S&P Global and Federal Reserve found that the US has been losing, on average, 1,600 bank branches per year.

Santander announced that it would be shuttering 44 branches in Q1 2026, noting a move toward digital banking. TD Bank plans to close 51 branches across 13 states as it aims to cut 10% of its brick-and-mortar locations. JPMorgan Chase announced 66 branch closures in late 2025. US Bank, Wells Fargo, PNC, Bank of America, Citizens Bank, Flagstar, and every other major banking chain are moving away from physical banking as people favor online convenience, and the government favors online monitoring.

Digital banking will continue to grow. Branches will continue to close. But do not confuse a trend with a solution. Convenience is being sold as innovation, yet what is really happening is the consolidation of financial power and the reduction of public access points.

Relationship banking was built on human judgment. Transactional banking is built on algorithmic approval. This is something I have warned about for years.

Under relationship banking, they lent you money but monitored your business and ability to repay. This imposed some rational constraints. Under the new transactional banking model, the New York bankers sought to repeal Glass-Steagall, and they have transformed into brokers, packaged loans, and resold them. They no longer cared about the borrower, for the motive is how they can sell it.

Under relationship banking, your local banker knew who you were. They understood your business, your family, your reputation, and your history in the community. Loans were not always granted because a formula said yes. They were granted because character and long-term trust mattered. The system was decentralized in practice, even when imperfect. Now you are reduced to a data profile.

A banker could vouch for a person based on their relationship and push through loan approval. With transactional banking, a model can reject the loan, and that’s the end of the discussion. One is local, and the other is centralized.

As governments move toward tighter financial surveillance, digital currencies, and automated reporting, relationship banking becomes an obstacle. It introduces flexibility into a system that regulators want to be rigid.

Jan 30 2026

AFD Calls of Zelensky to Pay for Blowing Up Nord Stream


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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Perhaps there is no greater example of how the EU elite couldn’t care less about the people who constantly support their hand-picked puppet Zelensky, yet turn a blind eye to his blowing up of Nord Stream. Every European leader who supports Zelensky should be thrown in prison for treason.  ONLY the AFD in Germany has stood for law and order and recently said:

“Zelenskyy Should Pay for Blowing Up Nord Stream”

Zelensky does not care for anyone but himself. He has destroyed German jobs to try to hurt Russia and does not care what he does to anyone else. Any European that supports Ukraine is a traitor to the people of Europe.

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From the outset, just 3 months into the war, I reported that Ukraine lost 100,000 soldiers. Some instantly accused me of put out Russian propaganda because they love to listen to the Neocon propaganda. It turns out that was classified information. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU, had released a video and then edited it deleting that very information I reported at the request of Zelensky. All this is to hide the fact that Ukraine has been losing the war. With its armed forces down at least one-third in the first few months.

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There is absolutely NOTHING that Zelensky has said that has proven to be true. In Italy, he claimed Russians were capturing children and torturing them. This was another outrageous lie. That allegation vanished. He says whatever he can to get money. He could have just complied with the Belgrad and Minsk Agreements but he is determined to lead the world into war. Trump, according to sources, has told him he must surrender the Donbas to get security guarantees.

The US Pentagon has come out and even said that they CAN NOT independently verify what took place in Bucha. There is no way to verify anything in Bucha and there are videos that show people laying in the street pretending to be dead with no blood and then there are videos showing they get up when the camera passes.

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I have videos that are too horrible to even post of Ukrainian taking captured Russian soldiers, crucifying them, and then burning them alive. Ukraine is the motherland of ethnic cleansing. That is why the CIA protected them because they were killing Russians.

Indepentent Neo Nazis

Anyone who thinks this I am Putin supporter, I will pay for your ticket to Ukraine and even buy you a gun. Go put your manipulated beliefs to the test.

Jan 29 2026

Potential Homebuyers Walking Away at Record Pace


Posted originally on Jan 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

TIME to Buy Time to Sell

We are witnessing an unmistakable shift in the US housing market, not a bubble pop like 2008, but a market regime change characterized by buyers retreating as inventory rises and affordability remains strained. Recent data from Redfin shows that roughly 40,000 US home-purchase agreements were canceled in December, representing about 16.3% of homes that went under contract–the highest level for that month since at least 2017.

Excess demand and historically low mortgage rates drove the housing market until around 2023. Trends that cannot continue forever eventually break down when the cyclical structure turns. The peak in housing demand, much like in equities or commodities, eventually lost momentum as mortgage rates climbed and affordability deteriorated.

We also saw a mass exodus out of states like New York and California due to policy, first surrounding COVID restrictions followed by excessive taxation. The political landscape has remained relatively stable on a state-wide basis and both people and corporations have settled in their respective states.

Even as longer-term bond yields and mortgage rates have slightly pulled back, with average 30-year mortgage rates near their lowest point in over three years, they remain elevated compared with the ultra-low era of the early 2020s. Higher rates are pushing monthly payments beyond what buyers are able to afford. Sellers now outnumber buyers by record margins, a dynamic unseen in the recent boom years when over-ask bidding wars were commonplace.

In a boom market, buyers panic, compete, and push prices higher. In a cooling market with more listings, they withdraw when the deal doesn’t meet their financial reality. This is the behavior captured in the cancellation data provided by Redfin. Inspections and contingencies come with a high price tag and can cause buyers to walk away as every aspect of maintaining a home comes with a high price tag.

The problems in 2008 stemmed from systemic financial excess, predatory lending, adjustable-rate resets, and a lack of vetting. It was not an organic situation, but rather, conditions manufactured by credit expansion by financial institutions and rating agencies. We are not witnessing defaults because buyers are choosing to walk away before the purchase. Buyers and lenders are both evaluating risks and stopping deals in their tracks.

Wage growth, while improving, hasn’t kept pace with housing cost inflation over the last decade, especially after the dramatic increases in home prices since 2020. Combined with mortgage rates above long-term averages and elevated property taxes and insurance, the effective cost of homeownership has climbed faster than incomes for many.

Affordability is of particular concern with younger demographics who have been priced out of the market. Starter homes are not what they once were.

The market is recalibrating and corrections are occurring before systemic debt defaults. All participants are making choices based on affordability and the heightened risk of not being able to make payments. It is almost difficult to call this a buyer’s market as no one feels they are walking away with a great deal.