Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Dec 5 2025

Mom & Pop Shops Closing in Record Numbers – Are Tariffs to Blame?


Posted originally on Dec 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

tariffs_trade_barriers

Subchapter V filings intended for small businesses have risen 8% annually to 2,221 bankruptcies as of November 2025. Bloomberg and other various sources are blaming Trump’s tariffs, but they are missing the mark entirely.

“High borrowing costs, cautious consumers and the Trump administration’s trade war are weighing on earnings for the smallest businesses,” Bloomberg reported. “High borrowing costs, cautious consumers and the Trump administration’s trade war are weighing on earnings for the smallest businesses.”

Interest rates have been on the rise since 2022, reversing the cheap credit pipeline that fueled overleveraging. Firms both big and small relied on that easy money, and who could forget the immense PPP loans provided to businesses in the wake of the pandemic. Small businesses operate on thin margins and are vulnerable to cost increases or supply chain disruptions. Inflation has never meaningfully waned since the pandemic. It costs more to buy and more to borrow. Consumers are spending more on less and placing the essentials on credit.

Bankruptcies are not limited to Main Street. Reuters reported that US corporate bankruptcies are looking at a 15-year high based on S&P Global data. Corporate bankruptcy filings hit 655 through October compared to 687 for the duration of 2024. The industrials sector alone saw 98 businesses go under due to supply chain vulnerabilities. Larger corporations may be less vulnerable to shocks but they are still burdened by debt.

No one is immune to the current situation. Corporations with assets exceeding $100 million are seeing a surge in closures and bankruptcies. Trends in Large Corporate Bankruptcy and Financial Distress—Midyear 2025 Update found that filings began to increase in early 2023 and have continued to rise into 2025. Over the past year, 117 mega corporations filed for bankruptcy. This is unusually high and 44% above the 2005-2024 average of 81 bankruptcies per year.

Mega bankruptcies or corporations with assets exceeding $1 billion are also on the rise, with 32 filings in the past month, up from 24 the year prior. The 2005-2024 average was 23 per year. In the first half of 2025 alone there were 17 mega bankruptcies on record, marking the highest figure on record since the pandemic of 2020.

The problem is structural in nature and far more complex than a crisis caused by tariffs. The fact that mega bankruptcies are rising shows that even large, previously “too big to fail” firms are no longer immune from collapse and suggests a weakening foundation that threatens the broader financial system.

Dec 5 2025

Mega Data Centers Carry Secret Health Risks


Posted originally on Dec 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

datacenter

Towns are cheering the arrival of new AI data centers, guaranteed to attract capital and jobs, but new revelations reveal dangerous health consequences for nearby residents.

A large datacenter in Morrow County, Oregon, employs over 1,8000 full-time workers. AWS investments at large employ over 8,320 full-time workers, contributing $11.8 billion to the US GDP.

The facility in Morrow County, operational since 2011, has helped to diversify the area, as 40% of the county’s residents live below the poverty line. Amazon has paid over $100 million in county taxes over the past decade, carrying the local economy. The facility requires millions of gallons of aquifer water each year for cooling, which then mixes with nitrate-rich agricultural wastewater. That wastewater re-enters the local system, and has saturated the sandy soil and contaminated wells. A health department officially randomly tested 70 homes for contaminated water–68 of 70 tested exceeded federal safety limits.

Some wells have concentrations as high as 73 ppm, but the state limit is currently 7 ppm. This means that the water is no longer safe for consumption, but the warning has come too late. The water and nearby agricultural crops are contaminated. The population has noticed an increase in cancer diagnoses. Over 25 women have reported unexpected miscarriages, with another six residents suffering from kidney failure.

Amazon told reporters at Rolling Stone that the nitrate levels “significantly predate AWS’ (Amazon Web Services) presence.” Others believe AWS is exacerbating existing problems significantly:

“When that tainted water moves through the data centers to absorb heat from the server systems, some of the water is evaporated, but the nitrates remain, increasing the concentration. That means that when the polluted water has moved through the data centers and back into the wastewater system, it’s even more contaminated, sometimes averaging as high as 56 ppm, eight times Oregon’s safety limit.”

Amazon has seven facilities in the area and plans to build an additional five. Rural communities have been lobbying for these data centers to boost their economy as tech giants are pouring hundreds of billions into these facilities. The S&P believes demand for mega data centers will double by 2030—AI is only in the early stages. But what will happen to the people who live near these centers, and do they pose a risk to the larger community? Unfortunately, this generation will be the test subjects.

Dec 5 2025

It is Not Racist to Ban Migrants from Third-World Nations


Posted originally on Dec 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Trump announces travel ban and restrictions on 19 countries

Import the third world, become the third world—no exceptions. Donald Trump has permanently halted migration from 19 third-world nations after a recent shooting of National Guard members. The left calls the ban racist, but logic deems it an economic necessity.

The US Census tracked the foreign-born population at 53 million, but the actual number is far higher. “This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.),” the US president noted.

Illegal migrants had their unlimited free benefits repealed by the new administration; still, the majority of legal migrants in the US are on one or more social welfare programs. Migrants arriving from the 19 banned nations are far less likely to have an education or skills that can help them transition into a working US taxpayer. The government has provided migrants with countless benefits, including outright cash assistance under the Refugee Cash Assistance program, which around 80% of migrants from banned countries utilize.

There is a reason that the government has yet to provide clear-cut figures on the cost of subsidizing migrants. The House Committee on the Budget believes that American taxpayers are spending “at least $150.7 billion” annually to cover the costs of open border policies, but the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) believes the cost is closer to $400 billion. State and local governments are on the hook for the majority of the costs. “State and local governments can’t borrow or print money like the federal government, so they have to balance their budgets by either absorbing this cost through raising taxes or they have to cut services to their citizens,” the committee explained in a 2024 discussion.

The average American is in debt and grappling with the high cost of living. More citizens are falling into poverty, and therefore, the public welfare system which is precisely what the government wants because those people are entirely dependent on government and will vote for the hand that feeds them. Those same citizens are expected to also subsidize others when they are struggling to provide for their own families. The left has long believed that the US has an unlimited money tree that they can use to handout money with no thought to the long-term repercussions, hence why America has reached a level of debt it can NEVER repay.

The government spends billions on border control and protection while still permitting people to legally enter the nation who have no applicable skills to survive on their own. Importing foreign cultures that do not align with Western values is an entirely different but important topic but we unfortunately have the UK to use as a case study.

Nationalism is not racist. It is not racist to prioritize citizens nor is it racist to deny those who cannot assimilate to society or the workforce.

Dec 4 2025

Bulgaria Withdraws Budget After Protests


Posted originally on Dec 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Civil unrest continues as tens of thousands of Bulgarians took to the streets last month to protest government spending, or at least that is what the headlines would lead one to believe. The government released its 2026 budget proposal, which included higher taxes and increased social security contributions, sparking nationwide outrage led by youth. Now, Parliament is withdrawing the budget unanimously, as citizens demanded the right to be heard. Yet, the true nature of the protests surrounds the forced adoption of the euro.

Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov has been urged to resign; President Rumen Radev backed protesters while accusing violence as “mafia provocation.” Protestors set the entrance to the office of the European Commission on fire. Bulgaria is set to join the eurozone on January 1, 2026. The budget maxes out the 3% deficit as demanded by the European Commission. The people know that appeasing the European Commission is the main reason they want to increase taxes, and Bulgarians do not want to surrender their national identity to Brussels.

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But Bulgaria is set to join the eurozone as the 21st member despite political unrest. The euro was never created as a currency to enhance trade or economic efficiency. It was designed as a stepping stone toward federalizing Europe. Europe has always sought the benefits of a single currency without surrendering fiscal sovereignty. Brussels will accept Bulgaria even without a clear budget because it needs to feed a dying system.

Bulgaria will forego its sovereignty. Goodbye independent rate decisions. Bulgaria will not have a national currency to adjust during downturns. They will be forced into the one-size-fits-all monetary system centered around the top European economies that are on the decline. The EU is attempting to recruit Romania into its scheme as well. Then there is the matter of absorbing Ukraine into the mix. The centralized authority in Brussels has no plan for the sovereign debt crisis that awaits it next year going into 2028.

Dec 4 2025

FDA Memo Goes Public: Children Died from COVID Vaccine


Posted Dec 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  
Child Vaccine

Vinay Prasad, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), sent out an internal email to the Food and Drug Administration featuring “a profound revelation”—the COVID-19 vaccine is responsible for the deaths of a minimum of 10 American children.

“In many cases, such mandates were harmful,” Prasad wrote. “It is difficult to read cases where kids aged 7 to 16 may be dead as a result of covid vaccines.” Prasad also referenced two journal articles by FDA Commissioner Marty Makary that state the vaccines by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna increased the risks of myocarditis or heart inflammation in children and young men.

The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) has attempted to trace the damage caused by mandated vaccines. Prasad said in his memo that he only analyzed 96 deaths that occurred from 2021 to 2024 from the FDA’s Office of Biostatistics and Pharmacovigilance. The director admitted the real number of deaths is much higher.

Prasad is now under attack by his peers who refuse to admit that there was a flaw in the vaccine. “It’s irresponsible science at best and it’s dangerous to the public at the very least,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Kathyrn Edwards, vaccine researcher and professor emerita at Vanderbilt University, demanded autopsies showing “actual cardiac involvement.” Goodman, who led CBER during the George W. Bush administration, claimed the memo was “destined to go externally” and perhaps Goodman is correct.

COVID to UKRAINE

The COVID vaccine first became available on December 14, 2020. It has been nearly five years, and the public still does not know exactly what was in the concoction, nor has any government or private agency accurately studied the deaths attributed to the mRNA shots. Over 7.1 million people died from COVID-19 and the world has simply shrugged off the evidence that this virus was manufactured, unleashed on the public, and treated with a dangerous concoction mandated by global governments.

Dec 4 2025

The 400 Billion Yuan-Won Swap


Posted originally on Dec 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

China 100 Yuan

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has renewed its bilateral swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) amid strengthened ties between Seoul and Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping met South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, marking the state visit to China in over a decade.

The swap line will remain at 400 billion yuan, providing direct yuan-won liquidity. The arrangement was made years ago and this was simply a renewal of faith. The agreement will last for five years until October 21, 2030, with the option to extend. Interestingly, this times out with the Sovereign Debt Crisis peak in 2028-2032. Seoul needs a non-dollar liquidity backstop if the West fractures. It also provides a hedge against the risk of US sanctions, or, far worse, a removal from SWIFT.

Years of tension between the two nations did not suddenly vanish, but trade is the great peacemaker. Both countries need this option because the global monetary system is beginning to fail. The yuan-won swap is an alternative buffer for South Korea if dollar dominance weakens, but this is not de-dollarization at hand.

The US still has the strongest market for public and private debt. Nations are seeking parallel channels to the US system, but are not turning their backs on the dollar. Governments, central banks, and private institutions remain confident in the dollar; it’s the government they’re worried about. This is the exact reason why there are whispers that the BOK will increase gold purchases, as it is necessary to hedge against governments. Again, the BOK has always maintained gold reserves but has not increased its purchases since 2013. None of this is a sign of de-dollarization.

Dec 3 2025

The World’s First AI State is Doomed


Posted  originally on Dec 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Diia App: Ukraine's Digital Transformation Frontrunner - The RegTech

Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov declared that his nation will become a “sovereign AI state” after partnering with Nvidia to create the world’s first government development LLM project by 2030.

Mykhailo stated that Ukraine plans to move from a “digital state” to an “agentic state” where AI actively delivers services across government while making its own decisions that bypass humans. Ukraine already launched Diia.AI, the world’s first national AI assistant. Citizens can access the platform to request services, ask questions, or retrieve documentation.

“The evolution is that now, with Diia.AI, a user just types, ‘I need an income certificate.” In this system, the goal is that a single request or even a voice message can immediately connect a person’s need with the result. This is part of the plan for a full rollout of Diia.AI in the app, enabling people to complete requests or access services through a single voice command,” Fedorov noted.

Tech companies across the globe are investing heavily in Ukraine, with a specific emphasis on the AI sector. Google created Diia.AI and permitted the program to operate on Gemini. Kyivstar, recently listed on the US stock exchange, set up 3,500 backup generators to maintain AI services during energy attacks. The AI Factory and WINWIN Centre programs have partnered with European companies to build up Ukraine’s AI system. Microsoft, naturally, has its claws in the public-private partnership as well. Interesting to see companies pouring billions into a nation at war.

Sovereign AI is merely a centralized system that gives the state new powers of surveillance, data-processing, and control in real-time. Elite consolidation of power is the entire premise of the Ukraine war and why every bureaucrat has pledged a portion of their nation’s GDP to a prolonged conflict that does not involve them. The European Union would have loved to implement such a program, but their people still have voting rights. Zelensky sold out his people long ago.

Ukraine will attempt to use the program to say they’re no longer corrupt and should be permitted into the EU or even NATO. Sovereign AI will not rebuild Ukraine’s economy, eliminate corruption, restore civil institutions, or end the war. It will, however, give politicians unprecedented tools to monitor dissent, enforce compliance, and shape the population according to their own political objectives. That is the inevitable trajectory of every government in decline. History has never produced a counterexample.

Dec 3 2025

India to Begin Tracking All Cell Phones


Posted  originally on Dec 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Sanchar Saathi App Mandate: Why Govt Order Sparks Privacy, Surveillance Concerns| Sanchar Saathi app| DoT Sanchar Saathi order| Sanchar Saathi app controversy| Government apps India| Apple| Apple Sanchar Saathi news

India’s Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has mandated smartphone manufacturers to install the government Sanchar Saathi portal app on all new devices to “verify authenticity of IMEIs used in mobile devices.” The DoT insists the move is to safeguard citizens from cyber criminals.

The Sanchar Saathi portal launched in May 2023 to curb telecom-related fraud. Users may block stolen phones on the Central Equipment Identity Register (CEIR) by entering their unique IMEI numbers. Telecom Analytics for Fraud Management and Consumer Protection (TAFCOP) allows citizens to check for unauthorized mobile connections registered in their name through OTP verification. Citizens may report spam calls, phishing attempts, and suspicious messages across all platforms, including WhatsApp.

Are we to believe the government implemented a massive nationwide database to simply deter phone scammers? The government has not released the official budget for this project, but a nationwide platform is not cheap. Is the government so concerned that it must mandate smartphone providers to pre-install its app? Stolen phones are not a matter of national security–Sanchar Saathi is the beginning of India’s centralized data collection.

“DoT’s SIM‑binding directions are essential to plug a concrete security gap that cybercriminals are exploiting to run large‑scale, often cross‑border, digital frauds,” the DoT said in a statement on Monday. “Accounts on instant messaging and calling apps continue to work even after the associated SIM is removed, deactivated or moved abroad, enabling anonymous scams, remote “digital arrest” frauds and government‑impersonation calls using Indian numbers.”

The government insists that users may simply delete or deactivate the app. It claims that users can choose not to register their devices. Communications Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia insists the government will not be “snooping” or monitoring calls–yet. But the government can see where devices move, when they are active, and how they are positioned relative to the telecom networks. Everyone walks around with a tracking device by default.

The telecom fraud excuse is almost laughable. The application is nothing more than a compulsory state-mandated tracking tool. Governments worldwide are eager to use new technology as a real-time monitoring mechanism. It will begin by monitoring movement but can expand in scope as far as the government is willing to go.

Categories:IndiaGovernment Surveillance

Dec 3 2025

Putin Ignores Maduro’s Request for Help


Posted  originally on Dec 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Putin signs

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in another proxy war. The Association of Tour Operators of Russia confirmed that the government is sending flights to Venezuela to remove nationals immediately.

Tourism from Russia to Venezuela has grown in recent years, with over 6,000 Russians visiting Margarita Island between August and November this year.

Moscow provided Caracas with two nuclear-style bombers to deter US aggression in 2018, and although the alliance remains strong, Moscow is keenly focused on its own war right now. Moscow provided the nation with two oil tankers to provide crude to China, but has offered nothing else. In October 2025, Maduro asked Russia to help Venezuela build its air defense system, specifically asking for 14 missile sets, restoration of Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighter jets, and an upgrade to 8 engines and 5 radars. Russian officials denied the request.

Putin said he is confident that Maduro “will navigate all challenges with dignity and protect its legitimate interests during these tumultuous times.” Maduro took to the state-controlled airwaves in November 2025 to read letters that China’s Xi Jinping and Putin sent him for his birthday. Putin basically said, “Good luck and figure it out,” but Xi had stronger words.  “China reiterates its categorical rejection of external forces interfering in Venezuela’s internal affairs under any pretext and will continue to firmly support, as always, Venezuela in safeguarding its sovereignty, national security, national dignity, and stability,” his letter noted.

Venezuela is on its own.

Dec 2 2025

Maduro Refuses to Flee – US to Attack Venezuela


Posted originally on Dec 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Venezuela Map

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has two options: flee immediately or propel your nation into a one-sided war with the United States. President Donald Trump offered Maduro one last chance to flee the nation. If not, the US will forcibly implement regime change.

It began with sanctions and secondary sanctions that implemented 25% tariff on imports from any nation purchasing Venezuelan gas.  The US placed a $50 bounty on Maduro’s head, but the price was not enough to cause his circle to falter. Thousands of illegal Venezuelan migrants were sent back to Venezuela over the past year. The US Department of Defense deemed drug smuggling from Venezuela a national security crisis that provided them with the right to destroy Venezuelan ships that could contain narcotics. Venezuela declared war against the US and called upon 4.5 million troops to protect the nation. President Trump determined there was no need to officially declare war or call upon Congress.

New FAA Airspace Warnings for Venezuela and Puerto Rico – International Ops 2025 – OPSGROUP

There is currently a no-fly zone over Venezuela as tensions are coming to a head. Washington has offered Maduro protection if he flees with his wife and son immediately. Reports state that Maduro was not receptive, and Washington escalated the matter within hours.

Maduro requested “global amnesty for any crimes he and his group had committed,” but that was rejected. No one will permit their enemy to flee, regroup and gain power. Maduro may be able to flee the nation but he will face life imprisonment. It seems more likely that he will go out shooting rather than in handcuffs. The same source told reporters that Maduro wants to retain control of the armed forces in exchange for free elections. Maduro attempted to phone Washington hours after refusing to flee, but Washington is no longer accepting his calls.

The US is prepared to force regime change. It is one thing to shoot down boats, but another to begin striking within the nation. “The targets have been identified through covert operations over the last several years by people on the ground,” Venezuelan diplomat Vanessa Neumann told Fox News Digital. “So they’re well-mapped. This is a capture-or-kill scenario, but there’s a limit to how many people you can remove quickly.”

China and Russia were Maduro’s last hope. Xi and Putin have criticized Trump’s actions in the region and will cite these actions as a reason that the US is an untrustworthy neo-colonizer. Still, Putin is wrapped up in peace talks, and China does not make impulsive moves. Maduro is on his way out.

This lines up perfectly with the Economic Confidence Model that pointed to 2024.35 to 2026.05 as the rise of civil unrest, political fragmentation, and deterioration of government confidence. The start of 2026 marks the beginning of the shift toward international war. The real areas of concern are Europe (NATO v Russia), the Middle East, and then Asia. The incoming regime change in Venezuela is inconsequential from a US perspective, but it is the beginning of the ongoing global conflict we will witness during this violent wave.