California Real Estate Peaks and Begin a Crash


California has joined the states with not just the highest taxes in America, but it has become one of those states that people are just leaving resulting i9n a net outward-migration. There is a logical consequence when a state becomes a place people are trying to flee from – real estate MUST decline in value. Already, sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums in Southern California has declined 11.8% year over year. Prices rallied and reached a record high in 2018. The median price paid for all Southern California homes that were sold in June 2018 was a record high reaching $536,250, according to CoreLogic. This was reported as a 7.3% increase compared to June of 2017. When you see such short-term surges in a market, that is often the sign of how every market peaks. Real estate is no exception.

Many have touted for years that California property leads the nation. Therefore, whatever trend appears they will spread to the rest of the nation. While we do not necessarily agree with that statement, nonetheless, real estate will be on the decline in most states where taxes are rising. Property is still going to rise in the 7 states without income tax. For those who are unfamiliar with Socrates, we have created indexes for real estate on a worldwide basis. Here is the page you can view what is available.

California may seem to be a leading indicator, but this appears to be with respect to direction only. While Southern California reached record highs in property values in 2018, this appears NOT to be a leading factor, but a lagging one. Our index for the nation as a whole with a limited focus to Residential peaked in August 2016. We have NOT yet elected a Monthly Bearish Reversal. Trump has clearly made a major economic difference. Capital has been returning home and this has helped to create jobs and soften the economic decline in the USA compared to Europe and Asia. This will also have a fundamental backdrop to the dollar.

ISIS Fighter Omar Ameen Easily Achieved Refugee Entry Into the U.S. – Arrested Yesterday For Extradition To Iraq…


The U.S. Dept of Justice detained ISIS fighter Omar Ameen in Sacramento, California, yesterday (full pdf below) pending extradition back to Iraq on murder charges.  Incredibly Ameen gained State Department entry into the U.S. through the refugee system.

Despite the claims of the Obama administration, Omar Ameen’s ability to enter the United States is a clear example of weaknesses within the refugee process and lies told by former administration officials about the security therein.

From the DOJ memo of extradition, Omar Ameen first applied for refugee status in Turkey in 2012.  Then in June of 2014 applied for refugee status to the United States.  The extradition memo explains that “based on the written and verbal answers given by Ameen, his refugee application was approved by USCIS on June 5, 2014.”

On June 21st, 2014, Ameen, who claimed to work as a truck driver, murdered police officer Ihsan Abdulhafiz Jasim in Rawah, Iraq, an ISIS stronghold.  Four months later, November 4th, 2014, Ameen entered the U.S. settling in Salt Lake City and then later traveling to Sacramento, California, where he was arrested.

He is currently detained and is likely to be extradited to Iraq to face charges of premeditated murder.  However, the larger issue of how he was able to gain such easy entry into the United States should give everyone pause.  As noted by The Daily Caller:

[…] Ameen was allegedly a member of ISIS. In 2004, before the rise of that brutal terror group, Ameen and his family helped start AQI, according to the DOJ. In addition to allegedly killing an Iraqi police officer, Ameen is suspected of planting IEDs and committing terrorist acts near his hometown of Rawah.

But Ameen appears not to have faced any rigorous questioning from the U.S. government about terror links and his criminal activities. Instead, he simply answered “no” to questions about his alleged ISIS and al-Qaeda links while inventing a false narrative about his father and brother.

“Have you ever interacted with, had involvement with, or known any members of … Al Qaeda in Iraq … the Islamic State of Iraq or any other armed group or militia?” was one of the questions USCIS posed to Ameen.

“No,” he answered, according to Justice Department documents.

Ameen denied he had ever committed crimes in Iraq.

“In actuality,” according to the Justice Department, witnesses told the FBI that Ameen committed “numerous crimes ranging from robbery to placing [improvised explosive devices].”

“Ameen’s negative answers cut off a line of questioning relevant to his admissibility to the United States,” the Justice Department filing states.

“Based on the written and verbal answers given by Ameen, his refugee application was approved by USCIS on June 5, 2014.” (read more)

Here’s the MEMORANDUM OF EXTRADITION:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/386380888/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-nB1rkwdyFyEk0XjlbbRU

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NBC Releases Portion of Secretly Recorded Audio of John Kelly Firing Omarosa Manigault…


Former short-term White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman is attempting to stir up interest in a new book by delivering audio that she secretly recording in the White House situation room when she was fired by Chief of Staff John Kelly.  Ms. Manigault released the audio to NBC for use in a Sunday broadcast of Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

There is a strong possibility Ms. Manigault has committed several violations of federal law with a secret electronic recording within a SCIF (Situation Room); however, any action therein would only further provide fuel for her already discredited self-promotion. The fact Ms. Manigault made the recording speaks to her duplicitous intent and lack of integrity.

Here’s the audio:

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Interestingly, Ms. Manigault and NBC did not release the continued audio portion where WH attorneys outlined the legal and ethical violations that led to her firing; and the legal risk upon her departure.

Here’s the Transcript: GEN. JOHN KELLY: Hi.

OMAROSA MANIGAULT: Hi there, how are you?

JOHN KELLY: Who are you?

FEMALE VOICE: Hi.

OMAROSA MANIGAULT: My assistant.

JOHN KELLY: Could you leave us alone?

FEMALE VOICE: Sure.

OMAROSA MANIGAULT: Hi.

JOHN KELLY: I’m only going to stay for a couple of minutes. These are lawyers. We’re going to talk to you about leaving the White House. It’s come to my attention, over the last few months, that there’s been some pretty, in my opinion, significant integrity issues related to you and use of government vehicles and some other issues. And they’ll, they’ll, they’ll walk you through the legal aspects of this. But there is some, from my view, there’s some money issues and other things, but from my view, the integrity issues are very serious. I’m stuck with my past experience and that is, when we hold people accountable in the military, I would, I compare what I see here at the White House and other issues that I’ve had to deal with and say what would I do to this, in this case if I was in the Pentagon dealing with a Marine or a soldier or something like that? And the issue that you may or may not have a full appreciation for, but I think you do, this would be a pretty high level of accountability, meaning a court-martial. We’re not suggesting any legal action here.

OMAROSA MANIGAULT: That I — that I did?

JOHN KELLY: Just stay with me, just stay with me. Yep. That it would be a a pretty serious offense. So with that I’m just going to ask you — these gentlemen will explain it. We’ll bring a personnel person in after after they talk to you. But just to understand that I’d like to see this be a a friendly departure. There are pretty significant legal issues that we hope don’t develop into something that, that’ll make it ugly for you. But I think it’s important to understand that if we make this a friendly departure we can all be, you know, you can look at, look at your time here in, in the White House as a year of service to the nation. And then you can go on without any type of difficulty in the future relative to your reputation. But it’s very, very important I think that you understand that there are some serious legal issues that have been violated. And you’re, you’re open to some legal action that we hope, I think, we can control, right? So with that, if you would stay here with these gentlemen they’ll lay this thing out –

OMAROSA MANIGAULT: Can I ask you a couple questions? Does the president — is the president aware of what’s going on?

JOHN KELLY: Don’t do — let’s not go down the road. This is a non-negotiable discussion.

OMAROSA MANIGAULT: I don’t want to negotiate. I just, I’ve never talked — had a chance to talk to you General Kelly so if this is my departure I’d like to have at least an opportunity –

JOHN KELLY: No.

OMAROSA: –to understand.

JOHN KELLY: We can, we can talk another time. This has to do with some pretty serious violat — integrity violations. So I’ll let it go at that. So the the staff and everyone on the staff works for me, not the president. And so after your departure I’ll inform him if he gets interested on, on where you may be. So with that I’ll let you go and if gentlemen you could take it.

MALE VOICE: Thanks. Yep. I’m really sorry we’re here.

Here’s the Meet the Press interview accompanying the release.

A Task for Christians


Christians have the one method that will solve the problem of Islam. Conversion.
Here is a way that Christians can work together in an effective method.

Justin From Canada Announces He Has Control of NATO Mission in Iraq…


Watch out Iraqi peoplekind.  You can go ahead and cancel that jihad thing…  Chrystia and Justin are in charge now:

(Tweet Link)

Booyah.  Feel the fear

Peter Strzok Testifies To Joint Session of Congress – 10:00am Livestream….


The FBI counterintelligence official at the center of the Clinton and Trump investigations is scheduled to testify today.  FBI Agent Peter Strzok will testify publicly before a joint House Oversight/Judiciary Committee.  Testimony begins at 10:00am EST

House Committee Hearing LinkPBS Livestream LinkFox News Livestream

Scott Pruitt Resigns as EPA Administrator…


In a letter to the president EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has resigned from his position.  President Trump has accepted his resignation and notes that Deputy Administrator Andrew Wheeler will assume the acting administrator position Monday.  (letter below)

(link)

(link)

 

Do We Really Borrow From Only Ourselves? Does the Debt/GDP Ratio Means Anything?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, the famous economist Paul Krugman says that debt is ok when we owe it to ourselves. He calls it “deficit scolding” as he wrote in the New York Times. Would you like to comment on this statement?

GH

ANSWER: Paul Krugman seems to lack any historical understanding of how nations rise and fall. Anyone who claims debt is OK and can be infinite because “we” owe it to ourselves is clueless. He wrote in the article you referred to that “we have a more or less stable ratio of debt to GDP, and no hint of a financing problem.” The debt to GDP ratio is interesting but totally irrelevant. China’s debt to GDP stands at 250%, the USA at 103%, and Greece buckled at 186%. Obviously, this ratio is rather meaningless as a forecasting tool. I have published this chart on call money rates previously. In my studies, I quickly discovered that you cannot reduce the cause of any effect to a single issue. We can see that the peak in call money rates took place during 1899 and it was the lowest in 1929 when the Great Depression hit. You can’t even claim that if interest rates hit some magical level the stock market would crash. The world is far more complicated than just this one-dimensional approach to everything.

Capital flows were fleeing the USA in 1899 so interest rates went higher with a shortage of money. In 1929, the capital was in the USA for it rushed here because of World War I. The inflow of capital created an excess so the peak in call money rates was lower than 1899 when capital was fleeing. We even have the world of President Grover Cleveland from the Panic of 1893 commenting on the net capital outflow because of the “unsound” financial policy of the Silver Democrats.

The greatest mistake in the analysis is always trying to reduce any effect to a single cause. The world is a complex mechanism. It is indeed like a rainforest. There are countless species and each is interconnected. Exterminate one and you will find that it was the food source for another which dies. That species, in turn, was the food source for yet another and so on. The world economy is equally complex. This is why I say we are ALL CONNECTED. Create a war in one region, we may not be involved with troops, but the capital flows shift.

Everything is interconnected. There is no single cause and effect. Looking at GDP debt ratios is pointless. This is also why fundamental analysis is notoriously wrong. The majority tries to reason the future based upon this one-dimensional analysis and they NEVER got it right. I have posted this video clip of Larry Summers before. He is asked why can’t you guys ever get it right just once. His excuse is blunt. The economy is extraordinarily complex like the weather. He argues nobody can forecast the direction.

For anyone to say that debt can be infinite when we owe it just to ourselves is a fool. At times, 70% of the national debt has been accumulating interest payments. A national debt is the single greatest way we transfer wealth among citizens as well as nations. I kept yelling on Capitol Hill that Quantitative Easing would fail, it would not “stimulate” the economy for a very simple reason. The assumption that the Fed would buy 30-year bonds and then the banks would lend into real estate with lower interest rates was crazy. The debt is NOT owned by exclusively Americans. China was smart and it sold the 30-year bonds and swapped to 5-year or less paper. The money was transferred out of the country. To pretend this is a debt we “owe” ourselves is just fantasy.

Even domestically, if I am the lender and you are the borrower, then you are paying me because you borrowed the money. Your wealth is transferred to me because you could not wait to buy something for cash. Sorry, I believe Adam Smith was someone who tried to observe HOW things actually work instead of trying to support a predetermined conclusion.