QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, about half the cargo ships are headed to the US to get oil. Some have claimed that Trump is trying to replace the Middle East. This seems to be a conspiracy theory that contradicts what you have reported. What do you make of that?
RW
ANSWER: I know, there are wild conspiracy theories being proposed. I have even heard that Trump did this to force the EU to collapse. Sending the world into recession/depression is absurd. Trump is trying to sell more widgets, not fewer. Plus, rising oil prices put the Midterms at risk. That just makes no sense. Most of these conspiracy theories assume the people in government are smart – that is NOT the case.
As for tankers, there are not enough in the world to transport all the oil that needs to be transported. We have had some of the world’s largest shippers as clients for decades. There is what is known as “Tonne-miles” (or tonne-kilometers), which is the standard unit for measuring freight transportation volume, and it’s a key metric for understanding crude oil logistics.
A single ton-mile represents moving one ton of cargo over a distance of one mile. In the oil industry, a “ton” of crude oil is approximately 7.5 barrels. This metric allows you to directly compare the total transport “work” done by different modes (pipeline, rail, ship, truck), regardless of the shipment size or distance.
The most notable shift in the data is from water carriers to pipelines. In 1980, water carriers held a slight lead over pipelines for crude oil ton-miles. By 1999, pipelines had grown their share to over 75%, while water carriers had dropped to under 24%.
On a global scale, the focus shifts to seaborne trade, which is measured in tonne-miles (the metric equivalent). Recent data shows this is a massive and growing industry, currently being reshaped by geopolitical events. Global oil tonne-miles (for all products) grew from roughly 15.3 trillion in 2020 to 16.4 trillion in 2024, an increase of about 6%. Crude oil itself constitutes roughly 70% of total global seaborne tonne-miles.
In 2025, the global figure stood at approximately 12.2 trillion (year-to-date), indicating a contraction. This decline is partly due to the rerouting of tankers away from the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks, which caused tanker tonne-miles to hit a five-year high earlier in 2024 before the current dip. The reason this is critical to our analysis is that this is a core measure of economic activity. The total volume of crude oil moved is a key input for GDP figures, while changes in tonne-miles affect the costs of energy and consumer goods.
This allows for a direct comparison of efficiency between modes. For example, pipelines and large tankers are far more energy-efficient per ton-mile than trucks or rail. Some look at this also as a carbon footprint and other environmental costs of transporting crude oil over long distances. Energy companies and governments rely on tonne-mile forecasts to decide where to build new pipelines, expand ports, or invest in rail infrastructure.
The longer the trip to transport oil the higher the cost to ship that oil. Therefore, we have another variable here regarding the cost of shipping. On top of all of this, the claim that the United States is somehow displacing Iran is really absurd. The United States is a NET IMPORTER of crude oil. We may be able to facilitate some for geopolitical reasons and to try to keep prices down, but the US can in no possible way replace the Middle East. Who ever makes up these stories are really beyond hope.
The data coming out of Massachusetts confirms exactly what I have been warning about for years. You cannot raise taxes on a shrinking base and expect the system to hold together. According to new IRS migration data, the state lost roughly $4.18 billion in adjusted gross income to other states in 2023, a dramatic increase from about $900 million a decade earlier. This came immediately after the implementation of a 4% surtax on income over $1 million, a policy sold as a way to fund education and infrastructure but which has instead accelerated the exit of high-income earners.
What stands out is not just the number of people leaving, but who is leaving. High earners now account for about 70% of the outbound income, meaning the very group being targeted for revenue is the one walking out the door. That is the fatal flaw in these policies. Governments assume the wealthy are trapped. They are not. Capital is mobile, and when you create an environment that penalizes productivity, investment, and success, it simply relocates.
About half of those leaving Massachusetts are heading to states like Florida and New Hampshire, jurisdictions that impose far lower tax burdens or none at all on income. This is not random movement. This is deliberate. People are voting with their feet, and more importantly, they are taking their income, businesses, and long-term investment potential with them. The idea that you can isolate taxation within state borders without consequence is simply false.
This is part of a broader trend across the United States. High-tax states are experiencing outflows, while low-tax states are absorbing both people and capital. I have said repeatedly that governments do not seem to understand that capital flows are the dominant force, not policy intentions. You can pass whatever legislation you want, but if confidence declines and the environment becomes hostile to wealth creation, the money leaves. It is that simple.
The real danger is what happens next. As the tax base shrinks, governments are forced to extract more from those who remain to maintain spending levels. One analyst put it bluntly: “We are trying to make money on a smaller tax base. It’s going to be harder.” That is the spiral. First, taxes rise. Then capital leaves. Then taxes must rise again to compensate. It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle that ultimately undermines the entire fiscal structure.
Massachusetts is now a case study in what happens when policymakers ignore these dynamics. They are collecting billions in new surtax revenue, yet simultaneously losing billions in taxable income. That is not success. That is cannibalization of the future for short-term gain.
This ties directly into what I have warned about regarding state-level fiscal crises. Governments assume they can control behavior through taxation, but they cannot control confidence. Once people begin to question whether a state is competitive, whether it is worth staying, whether their future is better elsewhere, the shift begins. It does not happen all at once, but once it starts, it is very difficult to reverse.
What Massachusetts is experiencing today is not isolated. It is a warning sign. The same policies being debated in California, New York, and other states will produce the same outcome. Capital does not stay where it is punished. It moves to where it is treated best. That is the fundamental rule governments continue to ignore, and until they understand that, this trend will only
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