Jul 23 2026

Vance Is Positioning Himself for 2028—But No Candidate Is Free


Posted originally on Jul 23, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

US Vice President JD Vance says #Israel is trying to influence American politics and is "losing the public opinion battle” in the US.⁣ .⁣ ? Follow our LIVE coverage - link in bio.⁣ ⁣ ? @Reuters

Vice President JD Vance is clearly beginning to separate himself from the disastrous foreign policy that has dragged the United States into another Middle East war. The BBC reported that Vance has accused members of the Israeli government of trying to manipulate American public opinion against diplomacy with Iran. He is no longer speaking in the timid language traditionally used in Washington whenever Israel is involved. He is openly telling Israeli officials that the United States cannot continue financing every military ambition dreamed up in Jerusalem.

Vance asked Israel’s critics of the proposed Iran agreement a question they apparently cannot answer: “What is your exact proposal? You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.”

That is an extraordinary statement from an American vice president. Washington has spent decades pretending that every Israeli military operation is automatically in the national interest of the United States. No one is permitted to question Israel and blind loyalty is required on both sides of the aisle, which is perhaps the only aspect Dems and Republicans can agree upon.

Vance also said, “I find this whole freakout in Israel a little bit odd because I think that it comes from a place of mistrust, and I think that America has earned the trust of that region of the world.” He urged Israel to “give a little bit of credit to the United States of America, which I think has been an incredible partner for the Israeli government for a long time.”

Vance can see 2028 coming, and he understands that the MAGA base did not vote for endless war. Trump campaigned against the neocons, condemned the Iraq disaster, and promised to prevent World War III. Yet the United States is now bombing Iran, defending Israel, protecting Gulf shipping, and spending money that Washington does not have.

Vice President JD Vance has accused Israel of funding campaigns aimed at ruining US negotiations with Iran to end the war. There was no immediate response from Israeli officials to the allegation.⁣ ⁣

The Pentagon says the Iran war has already cost the United States $37.5 billion. The administration is seeking nearly $90 billion more in supplemental funding. At least 18 Americans have reportedly been killed and approximately 430 injured. Trump is now threatening to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This is no longer a limited operation to eliminate a nuclear facility. It is precisely how every forever war expands: one retaliation requires another retaliation until nobody remembers the original objective.

Trump is surrounded by people whose loyalty to Israel is greater than their concern for the long-term interests of the United States. Netanyahu has repeatedly pushed Washington toward regime change in Iran, while Trump has allowed the Israeli government to shape the boundaries of American policy. Netanyahu himself recently said that he and Trump remain aligned on the “big things.” That is precisely the problem. The American people elected Trump to put America first, not to place the United States military at the disposal of another government.

Yet nobody should mistake Vance for some independent farmer who wandered into Washington carrying only a copy of the Constitution. Vance also has a patron, and his name is Peter Thiel.

Thiel gave Vance his start in the elite world of venture capital. Vance worked at Thiel’s Mithril Capital, and Thiel later helped finance Narya Capital, the investment firm Vance co-founded. When Vance entered politics, Thiel contributed $15 million to the super PAC supporting his 2022 Senate campaign. Trump’s endorsement delivered the voters, but Thiel’s money built the runway.

Thiel is also the co-founder and chairman of Palantir, the data-analytics company that has embedded itself throughout the American military, intelligence, immigration, health, and law-enforcement systems. Palantir is not simply selling accounting software. It builds platforms capable of bringing enormous quantities of government and private information together, identifying relationships, tracking individuals, and turning scattered records into operational intelligence.

The U.S. Army awarded Palantir an enterprise agreement worth up to $10 billion over ten years, consolidating 75 separate software and data contracts. ICE awarded the company a $30 million contract associated with ImmigrationOS, a system designed to help identify and track immigration cases. Palantir’s federal contract awards nearly doubled in 2025 to more than $970 million, with most of that business connected to the Department of Defense.

Thirty members of Congress wrote to ICE and the Department of Homeland Security in April 2026 warning that Palantir-developed systems could contribute to a “mass surveillance ecosystem.” Civil-liberties organizations have raised concerns that combining medical, immigration, tax, employment, travel, location, and law-enforcement information could produce a centralized digital profile of millions of people.

This is where Vance’s anti-war positioning becomes complicated. He may oppose Netanyahu’s desire to bomb every regional adversary, but the political network that launched his career is deeply connected to the construction of the American surveillance and national-security state.

Trump has become politically bound to the Israeli alliance and to donors and officials who treat unconditional support for Israel as a test of loyalty. Vance owes his extraordinary rise in no small part to Thiel, whose company profits from government intelligence, military AI, policing, and mass data integration. One man is pulled toward a foreign-policy establishment centered on Israel. The other emerged from a technology establishment that wants to manage society through data.

Vance may sincerely believe that the Iran war must end. His criticism of Israel is justified, and his warning that a nation cannot “kill your way out” of every security problem is correct. Netanyahu’s strategy has produced endless retaliation, wider regional conflict, disrupted energy markets, and another enormous bill for American taxpayers. Someone inside the administration had to say it.

If Vance wants to become the genuine anti-war candidate in 2028, he must oppose more than Israel’s effort to prolong the Iran war. He must confront undeclared warfare, intelligence-agency abuse, military contracting, warrantless surveillance, centralized databases, and the companies that profit from turning every citizen into a collection of searchable data. Otherwise, 2028 will offer America another carefully manufactured choice: Trump’s war state or Thiel’s surveillance state. Neither represents the constitutional republic the Founders intended.

Note: Armstrong stopped allowing “some” of his videos to be copied. You can see them if you go to his blog.

Jul 23 2026

Main Street Is Breaking While Wall Street Celebrates


Posted originally on Jul 23, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

These Beloved Retailers Permanently Closed In VA In 2025 | Old Town Alexandria, VA Patch

Every recovery eventually reaches a point where the official statistics no longer resemble reality. Politicians point to stock market records, economists celebrate another quarter of GDP growth, and central bankers congratulate themselves because inflation has moderated. Then you look at Main Street, where the people actually creating jobs are quietly closing their doors.

Small business bankruptcies continue climbing at an alarming pace. Total U.S. bankruptcy filings reached more than 310,000 during the first six months of 2026, a 12% increase from the same period last year. Commercial bankruptcies continue rising alongside consumer filings, reflecting financial pressure spreading across the entire economy rather than remaining isolated to one sector.

The most revealing figure involves Subchapter V bankruptcies, the streamlined Chapter 11 process created specifically for small businesses. According to Epiq AACER, those filings jumped 67% during the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Overall commercial bankruptcies increased 14%, while traditional Chapter 11 filings surged 37%. Those are not numbers associated with a booming economy. They describe an economy where business owners are fighting simply to stay alive.

Small businesses employ nearly half of the American workforce and account for roughly 44% of U.S. economic activity. They do not have the luxury of issuing corporate bonds, raising billions through Wall Street, or borrowing indefinitely from investors willing to overlook losses. They survive on cash flow. When customers stop spending, interest rates rise, insurance premiums double, payroll costs increase, and suppliers demand higher prices, there is nowhere left to hide.

Many commentators continue blaming one issue in isolation. Some point to inflation. Others blame tariffs, labor shortages, or higher interest rates. The reality is that business owners are being hit from every direction at once. COVID relief programs have disappeared, borrowing costs remain the highest they have been in years, operating expenses continue climbing, commercial insurance has become another major burden, and consumers themselves are increasingly stretched by record credit card debt and the highest cost of living many have experienced in decades. A business cannot prosper when its customers are financing groceries with credit cards.

This is what sovereign debt crises look like before governments admit they exist. The public often expects a dramatic collapse similar to 1929 or 2008. More often the deterioration begins slowly. Restaurants disappear from neighborhood shopping centers. Family-owned manufacturers quietly liquidate equipment. Local retailers announce closing sales. One bankruptcy rarely attracts national attention, but thousands occurring across the country reveal something much larger taking place beneath the surface.

The government continues spending at extraordinary levels while expecting the private sector to absorb the consequences. Federal debt continues approaching $40 trillion, yet Washington keeps borrowing because debt has become the preferred solution to every political problem. At the same time, small businesses are expected to refinance loans at interest rates two or three times higher than they became accustomed to only a few years ago. Governments borrow with virtually no limits. Small businesses face the full discipline of the marketplace.

There is another reason these bankruptcies deserve attention. Small businesses have historically been one of the primary engines of upward mobility in the United States. Large corporations create employment, but small businesses create ownership. They allow ordinary families to build wealth independent of financial markets. Every small business that disappears represents another piece of the middle class slowly being transferred into larger corporate hands.

Our computer has consistently warned that periods of declining confidence eventually concentrate economic power. Large institutions generally survive because they possess access to capital, political influence, and financial flexibility unavailable to independent operators. Smaller firms, despite often being more innovative, are forced to close because they simply cannot absorb years of rising costs while customers reduce spending.

The headlines continue celebrating resilient stock indexes and moderating inflation. Main Street is delivering a very different report. The real strength of an economy has never been measured by the performance of its largest corporations. It has always been measured by whether an ordinary citizen with determination, skill, and hard work could build something of lasting value. When those businesses begin disappearing one after another, the foundation underneath the economy begins weakening long before Wall Street notices.

Note: Armstrong stopped allowing “some” of his videos to be copied. You can see them if you go to his blog.

Jul 23 2026

Trade Between India and China Soars


Posted originally on Jul 23, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Recalibration of India-China ties | Hindustan Times

India’s imports from China reached a record $79.41 billion during the first six months of 2026, a 21.8% increase from a year earlier. Bilateral trade climbed to $91.72 billion, up 23.6%, putting the two countries on pace to exceed the record $155.6 billion in trade achieved in 2025. India’s exports to China did rise an impressive 37.5%, reaching $12.31 billion, but that only pushed the trade deficit even higher. India still recorded a staggering $67.1 billion trade gap with China in just six months.

The politicians love to frame geopolitics as though nations simply choose their trading partners based upon ideology. Reality has always been dictated by economics. India and China continue competing for influence across Asia, clashing over border disputes, and expanding their respective militaries, yet Indian factories continue relying upon Chinese components because modern supply chains were built around efficiency rather than national security.

China remains deeply embedded in India’s industrial base. Electronics, machinery, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, pharmaceutical ingredients, industrial components, and solar equipment continue flowing into India because replacing that manufacturing capacity cannot be accomplished by passing legislation. Politicians can declare economic independence whenever they like. Building an alternative industrial ecosystem requires decades.

Many people continue speaking about “decoupling” from China as though it were simply a political decision. If anything, the numbers demonstrate precisely the opposite trend. While governments around the world discuss diversification, commerce continues moving toward China because that is where the manufacturing infrastructure already exists. Capital does not relocate because politicians give speeches. Capital follows efficiency, profitability, and production capacity.

China’s exports surged far beyond expectations in June, rising 27% from a year earlier. Artificial intelligence infrastructure, computing equipment, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, and advanced manufacturing are driving a new export wave that extends far beyond low-cost consumer products. The world continues talking about containing China while simultaneously purchasing more Chinese technology than ever before.

New Delhi has encouraged domestic manufacturing through its “Make in India” initiatives, expanded infrastructure spending, and sought to attract foreign investment away from China. Yet manufacturing itself requires enormous quantities of intermediate goods that still originate inside China. Even as India develops its own industrial capacity, much of that expansion depends upon importing Chinese machinery and components.

Modern economies function through integrated supply chains where one nation’s exports become another nation’s manufacturing inputs. Disrupt one link in that chain and production costs rise everywhere.

The broader geopolitical landscape only reinforces this trend. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping routes, increased insurance costs, and created uncertainty across global energy markets. India’s own trade deficit widened in June as exporters faced weaker global demand and shipping disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz. When transportation becomes more expensive and supply chains become more fragile, countries naturally gravitate toward suppliers capable of delivering at scale. China remains uniquely positioned to fill that role.

Our computer has always distinguished between political headlines and long-term capital trends. Governments may continue discussing strategic competition, tariffs, and economic realignment, but businesses still require dependable suppliers, functioning infrastructure, and competitive prices. Until another nation can replicate China’s manufacturing ecosystem on a comparable scale, trade will continue flowing toward Beijing regardless of diplomatic tensions.

Note: Armstrong stopped allowing “some” of his videos to be copied. You can see them if you go to his blog.

Jul 23 2026

Why Globalist are Against AFD in Germany


Posted originally on Jul 23, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

01:41

“We need diplomacy between West and East. Therefore, if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) enters the government, we will seek peace in Ukraine and advocate for peace negotiations so that this senseless bloodshed finally ends. We do not want to unilaterally take sides. That is not the path to peace—it is the path to war. We must not be ‘ready for war,’ but ‘peace-seeking.’ Therefore, we will stop all aid to Ukraine. No more German taxpayer money for Ukraine, no more weapons, and no more German soldiers. Under our leadership, Ukraine’s accession to the European Union or NATO is out of the question.”

Note: Armstrong stopped allowing “some” of his videos to be copied. You can see them if you go to his blog.

Jul 23 2026

It is Always a Matter of TIME


Posted originally on Jul 22, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

GCNYNF D Tech 7 22 26

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m a new subscriber and just wanted to say thank you. Your work has given me a real understanding of how time and price interact, and it’s remarkable how your forecasts avoid the bias that pervades everyone else’s predictions. Even with all the geopolitical noise, gold dropped into June just as you forecasted at the start of the year. It just proves that everything hinges on what people believe.

Thank you for the education.

Shane

Rabbit Its Just Time
Time Price Analysis

REPLY: What I have always found is that TIME is more important than PRICE. You have a finite amount of time and that dictates the trend. PRICE is secondary. You can have a price objective, but if you run out of TIME, the game is over.

TIME and PRICE are two entirely separate forecasts that must align to confirm a major market turning point. PRICE alone is meaningless without the correct timing.

The Primacy of Time
TIME is the dominant and more important factor . It is the “fabric of the universe,” not just a component of market analysis. The central idea is that a market move reaching a specific price level is not significant unless it occurs at a predetermined point in time.

Price as a Secondary Objective
Price targets are determined by patterns and reversals, but they are always secondary and must be “earned” by the market. In the Down, I had provided multiple price objectives (e.g., for the Dow: 18,500, 23,000, 40,000, 55,000, 65,000). The key is that reaching one objective before the TIME target signaled the next price level becomes possible.

Order v Chaos

Markets are seen as a series of connected events (a “wave of contagion”). By understanding the “hidden order” within this apparent chaos, one can define scenarios to navigate the market, rather than trying to predict it with one-dimensional certainty. Those who argue Random Walks are incapable to seeing both PATTERNS as well as TIME. As Einstein said, God does not play dice with the universe.

Jul 23 2026

Zelenskyy Removes and Replaces Leading Military Officials


Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2026 | Sundance

I have not written about the recent events in/around Ukraine because none of it makes sense and all of the information flows through the prism of ‘western’ intelligence propaganda.

According to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy {SEE HERE}, he has removed and replaced the entire leadership apparatus of the Ukraine military.  This follows his removal of 35-year-old Mykhailo Fedorov from the defense ministry last week {CITATION} that led to massive protests against Zelenskyy and armed forces Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy, who was also eventually replaced.

As the story is told the young Defense Minister Mykailo Fedorov was very well regarded and was the person responsible for the successful technological advancements in military drone use.  35-year-old Fedorov was a close working partner with Palantir head Alex Karp who is assisting Ukraine in their drone development and deployment.

If the drone development and deployment was such a massive success, as pronounced in all western and Ukraine statements, then why would Zelenskyy remove such a critical and effective Defense Minister?  This makes no sense.

Additionally, if Chief General Oleksandr Syrskiy was such an effective combatant commander, and if Russia was indeed pushed back on their heels by both Syrskiy’s campaign and Fedorov’s drones, then why would Ukraine disrupt their entire military leadership apparatus while they are winning such well publicized victories.  Again, none of this makes sense.

These moves by President Zelenskyy are akin to President Trump firing Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine, while saying they were doing an exceptional job on Operation Epic Fury in Iran.  See the problem?

None of these moves by Ukraine President Zelenskyy make any sense against the background story of them having incredible success against Russia.  You don’t replace the entire military leadership apparatus if things are going swimmingly.  However, it seems that no one in western media even fathoms the obvious conflicts in the narrative.

The young defense minister Fedorov, responsible for the well-publicized and celebrated victories in the use of drone warfare does not summarily get dispatched unless there is some underlying reason.  Something is not adding up.

ZELENSKYY – Today, the decisions on the changes in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be formalized – the relevant decrees are in preparation. Together with Mykhailo Drapatyi and Yevhenii Khmara, we determined that Major General Ihor Skybiuk will become the new Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He is a highly experienced officer who defended Ukraine shoulder to shoulder with the new Commander-in-Chief. It is important that all components of our Armed Forces continue to function in complete coordination. We also determined together how Oleksandr Syrskyi and Andrii Hnatov will continue serving in the defense of our country. {SOURCE}

Wall Street Journal –  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired the country’s armed-forces chief in a major reversal after initially siding with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy in a row with a young defense minister closely associated with Ukraine’s growing prowess in drone warfare.

The Ukrainian leader announced his abrupt shift Tuesday evening following days of street rallies after he removed Mykhailo Fedorov from the defense ministry last week. After several meetings with senior military commanders, he replaced Syrskiy with another experienced officer, Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatiy, who previously signaled his willingness to take a more innovative approach to breaking the deadlock on the battlefield.

It could prove a pivotal moment in Ukraine’s four-year-long defense since Moscow’s full-scale invasion. {MORE}

Additionally, at the exact moment when 35-year-old Mykhailo Fedorov was fired from the Defense Ministry, U.S. influencer Laura Loomer, a woman of generally unstable disposition, set off to begin a propaganda campaign in Ukraine telling her audience it was time to defeat the Russian propaganda.

What followed from Loomer’s arrival in Ukraine (still unfolding) is transparently an intelligence community assist paid propaganda effort to reverse her position on Ukraine and begin supporting the Zelenskyy regime.

Less than 24 hours after Loomer arrived in Kiev to begin broadcasting her pro-Zelenskyy propaganda effort, it was announced that FBI Director Kash Patel will be traveling to Russia {Citation}.

“FBI Director Kash Patel is planning to visit Russia later this year, likely in mid-October, according to a U.S. official and a person familiar with the situation.” … “Patel is scheduled to visit Russia on Oct. 14-15, first stopping in Moscow and then St. Petersburg.”

♦ Western media says Ukraine is achieving massive victories against Russia using drones.

♦ The leading military organizer of Ukraine drone development and use is then summarily fired, no reason given.

♦ The top general responsible for conducting the military operations delivering massive victories for Ukraine is then also fired – due to street protests against him.

Call me a simple-minded person, but these things don’t make sense if things are going swimmingly.

Jul 23 2026

Promethean Action PAC Reviews Motive of Canada -vs- USA on Trade and Tariffs


Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2026 | Sundance

Susan Kokinda from the Promethean Action PAC believes the USMCA tariff and trade issue is not a simple U.S–Canada dispute; rather it’s a broader conflict about U.S. sovereignty vs the British empire.

Kokinda points to how Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is staffing his government with figures tied to the British Crown and globalist institutions: trade minister Dominic LeBlanc also leads King Charles’s Privy Council, new Chief Operating Officer Maia Johnson is an American Democratic operative linked to Clinton and Bloomberg networks, and new the Governor General Louise Arbour comes from UN legal roles associated with the International Criminal Court.

Promethean Action believes that under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada is not a nation, it’s the new front for the British Empire, and President Trump’s new Canadian tariffs should be viewed through this prism.  WATCH:

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Jul 23 2026

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Testifies to Senate Finance Committee


Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2026 | Sundance 

It is exceptionally annoying to see the various members of the Senate stand in front of the microphones and discuss the importance of trade policy, while they sparsely attend testimony from U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer.

In the prompted segment below (I skipped the insufferable Wyden TDS), USTR Greer is asked about the timeline for the USMCA and notes he is going to Mexico immediately following the hearing.  WATCH:

The cognitive dissonance within the Democrats on the committee is stunning.

Senator Bennet worries the USA may lose its position as the world’s #1 exporter of food; at the same time, he waxes philosophically about the U.S. “affordability” of the same food.

Senator Whitehouse worries about the corporations getting the majority of the tariff reimbursements, while saying there’s no way that foreign countries offset the tariffs with subsidies – because that would mean the corporations are getting windfall massive tariff profits due to the Supreme Court…..  Which is EXACTLY what has happened, duh!

Folks, our legislative bodies are filled with idiots. We are not sending our best. lol

Jul 23 2026

President Trump Delivers Remarks from Marietta, Georgia – 3:00pm ET Livestream


Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2026 | Sundance

President Donald Trump gives remarks at Wheeler High School in Marietta, Ga, on the topic of Trump savings accounts.  Livestream Links Below.

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Jul 23 2026

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Press Briefing from ASEAN Summit in Philippines


Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2026 | Sundance

Following discussions at the 2026 ASEAN Summit in Manilla, Philippines, Secretary of State Marco Rubio answers questions from the media on a variety of current issues and events.

Secretary Rubio noted considerable discussions with Chinese officials on the upcoming state visit by Chairman Xi Jinping in September.  Additional questions surrounded the ongoing conflict with Iran.  WATCH: 

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As President Trump’s doctrine continues to unfold, foreign sovereign policy becomes more important.  Secretary Rubio notes the importance of high-level contacts and communication between global powers like USA, China and Russia as things unfold.