QUESTION #1: Dear Martin,
Could you offer a comment on how these increases in deaths can affect the latest predictions that you and Socrates offered? Will we still have the sling effect? Even with reduced liquidity, with millions unemployed, with the economy in a state of war, is the Dow Jones able to react and find the strength to rise?
how will the emerging countries be?
how can the dollar remain strong with more than 5 trillion to be injected and with the cancellation of the euro preventing the flight to the dollar?
I agree with your comments on the great farce and that afterward they will be small numbers of sick people compared to other diseases, but what would you do at a time like this where the smell of death and the tears are multiplying?
How can we move forward if hospitals are full and have no vacancies for those who need respirators?
Please update us at this moment so dramatically.
ANSWER: The transformation of the Euro to digital will not impact the dollar negatively, but has the risk of driving it higher. Even in Japan when the government lost the ability to even issue money for 600 years, people used Chinese coins and bags of rice. As for the increase in deaths, I have first-hand info that this is also being contrived. Elderly people are dying from the flu and they simply put down the Coronavirus. We still show the trend should top out this week.
Nevertheless, it is still 1/10th of those who die from the flu. Hospitals are not full. The virus will run its normal course. It peaked in China in less than 30 days. It has already peaked in Italy on March 20th. Any claim that it continues beyond this week of April 6th is bogus and fake. Even New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who many see as trying to be in the running to be drafted for the Democratic nominee came out and confirmed that the number of deaths may be declining. My bet is on Socrates. It has not been wrong yet.
In Europe, SPD leader Norbert Walter-Borjans in Germany (Socialist) called for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to be used as a crisis aid, but in the long term to use Eurobonds. “I am in favor of Eurobonds, but the seriousness of the situation leaves us no time for principle riding. It looks as if consent can be obtained that the ESM can be used without the frowned upon requirements,” said Walter-Borjans in an interview with the newspapers “La Repubblica”, “Il Messagero” and “El Pais”. In other words, we have the Socialists claiming emerging powers to circumvent democratic processes.
QUESTION #2: Is it possible that the markets don’t recover this year? Given the craziness will people trust anything at all? I wonder if this virus thing is what you described in your report about herd mentality–everyone is scared and paralyzed? Will this create the energy for any type of bounce back? or is a society just doomed? What good if the markets recover if everyone is out of work? Money won’t be good since society will be turned back into the stone age.
ANSWER: We are running Socrates on all inputs. So far, it still shows a 2nd quarter low. Note also the forecast I have been touting for the past 6 years at least that this new wave would be an inflationary one driven by SHORTAGES in agriculture. The first major producers of staple foods such as wheat and rice have restricted exports. Although there is enough food in the world, supply bottlenecks and rapidly rising prices are threatening in some regions. In Germany, there may be bottlenecks with certain types of vegetables and fruits. However, with transportation shut down to prevent the virus from spreading, this is also impacting agriculture. Socrates forecasts the trend. It does not sort out the fundamental causes behind those trends. There is a clear distinction between the two.
QUESTION #3: Dear Martin,
as a retired bond dealer and fund manager I subscribe to your Facts of socialism against
capitalism –but couldn`t it be that some Ultra RICH ( companies ) have the idea to Profit from this fight by buying up the whole shop for Peanuts if f.instants the Indices are
crashing down to a 1/10 of the current value —THAT WOULD BE A CAPITALISTIC POWER GRAB? -Like in Formula ! you surpass your Opponent out of the wind shadow.
KEEP UP THE PRESSURE –TKU for your work
ANSWER: This is far greater. Forcing a company’s share down to buy cheap is an old ploy as we both know. But this is a play to undermine the entire economy for political gain. Every socialist political party is pitching this to be the worst disaster warranting emergency powers. This goes beyond that for the very players are losing even Warrant Buffet lost $80 billion in market value on by March 23rd. If the socialist seize control of the economy, even the capitalist will lose. The rise of Eurobonds in a free market means that the outstanding negative $12 trillion in individual government bonds will crash. There go the pension funds.