War has now entered the video game stage. Ukraine has placed a literal price tag on Russian lives, paying soldiers roughly $2,200 for capturing an enemy combatant and around $330 for killing one in close combat when confirmed by video. This is the monetization of death.
What better way to entice the youth than to turn war into a video game? Call of Duty-aligned missions are provided, as the Ukrainian government is providing incentives for death and destruction. The new bonuses are part of Ukraine’s broader transformation of its military into a contract-based force with higher pay, clearer service terms, and direct rewards for battlefield results. Frontline monthly pay reportedly averages about $6,700 and can exceed $10,000 depending on mission risk and performance. A captured Russian soldier brings 100,000 hryvnias, roughly $2,200, while killing an enemy soldier can bring 15,000 hryvnias, roughly $330. If multiple soldiers participate in a capture, the reward is divided among them.
The mathematics of war explains why a living Russian soldier is worth more than a dead one. A prisoner can be exchanged for Ukrainian POWs, providing Kyiv with leverage in future negotiations while allowing families to see loved ones return home. Captured soldiers also become intelligence assets, revealing information about troop movements, logistics, morale, and battlefield tactics. From a purely military perspective, one prisoner can produce far greater strategic value than one casualty. That is precisely why Ukraine’s incentive system pays substantially more for captures than kills. Modern warfare has become an exercise in cost-benefit analysis where even human lives are assigned a financial value based on their perceived utility to the state.
This is what happens when war becomes permanent. Governments begin reducing human life to accounting entries. A prisoner has value because he can be exchanged. A dead man has value because he removes one more body from the battlefield. The military bureaucracy then assigns a number to each outcome, and suddenly killing becomes an incentive structure. The same people who lecture the world about morality are now openly creating pay scales for death.
Ukraine has already gamified drone warfare through its e-Points system, where units earn points for confirmed destruction of enemy personnel or equipment and use those points to buy more drones, ground robots, and electronic warfare gear through the Brave1 marketplace. Business Insider reported that more than 181,000 pieces of equipment have already been delivered through that system this year. The battlefield has become a marketplace. Kill, confirm, collect, upgrade, repeat.
“E-Points have already changed the approach to warfare. This is about clear incentives, fair rewards, and the rapid scaling of effective solutions. Military units receive resources based on results: the more targets they destroy, the more points they earn. This is a direct incentive that enables units to strengthen their capabilities with new technologies,” said Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Mykhailo Fedorov.
This is the future of war. The drone operator earns points. The infantryman earns cash. The commander receives measurable performance data. The government gets propaganda footage. The dead become statistics on a dashboard. This is why drone warfare is so dangerous. It removes the final psychological barrier between the man pulling the trigger and the human being dying on the screen. Once killing becomes remote, verified, rewarded, and gamified, war no longer resembles anything the old generals understood.
The West created this nightmare by refusing to negotiate. They have thrown hundreds of billions into Ukraine while pretending this is about defending democracy. Now the war has produced bounty systems, drone leaderboards, prisoner incentives, and video-confirmed kills. This is not civilization. This is barbarism with software.
People keep asking when World War III will begin. They are asking the wrong question. Europe is already behaving as though it is at war. I have warned for years that the politicians in Brussels would never allow peace because the sovereign debt crisis requires an external enemy. Every week, another European government announces more military spending, another mobilization plan, another emergency measure, another speech warning the public to prepare for conflict. This is no longer speculation. It is policy.
Now Poland’s foreign intelligence chief, Col. Paweł Szota, has made one of the clearest admissions yet. He warned, “The level of Russian aggression is very high, and the risk of military confrontation is real.” He added that Poland “must operate as if war with Russia is inevitable“ because waiting until conflict begins would be too late. Those are extraordinary statements from the head of a NATO intelligence service. Governments do not talk this way unless they are already planning for the next stage.
Szota explained that Russia “is systematically pushing red lines, testing NATO’s responses,” and argued that the Kremlin views Poland and NATO’s eastern flank as “an obstacle to achieving its imperial ambitions.” He also warned that Moscow could continue the war in Ukraine for years, sacrifice its own economy, and expand hybrid operations against NATO members, including provocations in the Baltic region. Europe is no longer speaking about diplomacy. It is openly discussing escalation scenarios and military contingencies.
This is precisely what our computer has been forecasting. The 2026 Panic Cycle was never simply about financial markets. It marked the acceleration of geopolitical instability. Governments always require a crisis when they cannot solve the debt problem. Europe is entering an economic depression while military budgets are exploding. Germany is debating conscription once again. Poland is rapidly expanding one of the largest armies in Europe. NATO members are increasing defense spending toward 5% of GDP. Civil defense campaigns are appearing across the continent. These are not the actions of governments expecting peace. They are the actions of governments preparing their populations psychologically and financially for war.
Once governments convince themselves war is inevitable, they begin making decisions that ensure it becomes inevitable. Every mobilization by one side is interpreted as aggression by the other. Every sanctions package invites retaliation. Every troop deployment produces another deployment in response. History shows that wars often become unavoidable long before the first shots are fired because political leaders eliminate every possible path back to diplomacy.
I have repeatedly stated that the sovereign debt crisis and the War Cycle are converging. Europe cannot finance its welfare state, its Green agenda, and endless military expansion simultaneously. Something has to give. Throughout history, governments buried under debt have repeatedly turned toward external conflict because war postpones domestic political reckoning. It creates an excuse for deficits, emergency powers, censorship, and capital controls while redirecting public anger toward a foreign adversary.
Ukraine has become the catalyst, not the destination. The computer has consistently warned that 2026 marks the beginning of the Panic Cycle, 2027 carries the highest risk of broader international war, and the economic consequences will intensify into 2028 as recession and civil unrest spread. Europe is no longer preparing to avoid war. Its own intelligence chiefs are now publicly telling their citizens to prepare because they increasingly believe war is coming. That should concern every investor far more than the daily fluctuations in the stock market.
The employment picture continues to soften despite every attempt to paint the economy as resilient. ADP reported that private employers added only 98,000 jobs in June, below expectations of roughly 118,000 and down from May’s 122,000. Nearly all of the hiring came from the service sector, particularly education and health services, while leisure and hospitality barely managed to add jobs despite the FIFA World Cup taking place across North America. Manufacturing remained weak, and natural resources and mining continued to shed workers.
The report exposes an economy that is slowing rather than collapsing. That distinction is important. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson admitted that it is taking people longer to find work while some industries are simultaneously struggling with labor shortages. That is precisely the type of distortion that emerges late in an economic cycle. Businesses are becoming increasingly cautious about expanding payrolls, yet structural shortages remain because the labor force no longer matches where demand exists. This is not the healthy labor market politicians continue to advertise.
Looking beneath the headline, the gains were concentrated in a handful of industries. Education and health services accounted for nearly half of all new jobs, while financial activities added modestly and information technology posted only small gains. Small businesses generated most of the hiring, adding roughly 53,000 positions, while medium-sized companies added 29,000 and large firms only 25,000. Wage growth continues to cool. Workers who remained with the same employer saw annual pay gains of 4.4%, while job changers received 6.6%, suggesting the intense wage competition that followed the pandemic has eased considerably.
The financial markets immediately interpreted the weaker report as increasing the odds of lower interest rates. That is the standard Keynesian response, but it completely ignores the sovereign debt crisis that is unfolding globally. Markets have become conditioned to believe every sign of economic weakness guarantees monetary easing. The problem is that inflation has not disappeared, geopolitical tensions continue to threaten commodity prices, and governments everywhere remain buried under unprecedented debt. The next Federal Reserve chairman cannot simply slash rates because Wall Street demands it. As I have explained before, if inflation begins to accelerate again, policy makers will be forced into a position they would rather avoid.
Our computer has been warning that 2026 would be a Panic Cycle year marked by increasing volatility rather than outright economic collapse. This report fits that model perfectly. Employment is no longer accelerating, consumers are becoming more cautious, and confidence is beginning to erode. The labor market is usually one of the last pillars to weaken before broader economic conditions deteriorate. Once businesses stop hiring, consumer spending inevitably slows, corporate earnings come under pressure, and governments experience declining tax revenues at precisely the moment debt servicing costs continue to rise.
The official government employment report will be released shortly, and it may differ from ADP because the methodologies are not the same. Nevertheless, the broader trend is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Hiring has slowed, job seekers report that it is taking longer to find work, and businesses remain reluctant to expand despite years of government spending and monetary stimulus. This is exactly the type of environment our computer has projected as we move toward the more volatile period ahead.
Just to clarify, this conference is open to all. I was asked to present a session on “how the world works” as a way to pass knowledge on to the next generation, and I’m happy to say I’ve committed to doing it. So here it is.
Please note: the book will be given only to those who attend the conference in person. For anyone unable to attend, a recorded video will be made available after the event. Since we’re keeping costs low, we won’t be live-streaming—so the video will be offered separately, and you won’t need a conference ticket to purchase it.
The book itself will also go on sale to the general public after the conference concludes.
President Trump delivers remarks to the assembled press pool before departing Joint Base Andrews en route to the Theodore Roosevelt Museum dedication ceremony. This is President Trump’s first flight aboard the new Airforce One.
President Trump makes note of the inaugural flight and discusses the airplane, then begins to answer questions on current events. At 10:00 of the video, President Trump is asked about Acting DNI Bill Pulte and his ability to review and declassify further intelligence information of material interest to the American people. 😉 President Trump says “We’re gonna declassify almost everything … I told [Bill Pulte], ‘You can declassify whatever you want.’” WATCH:
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Several people have inquired about a Paul Sperry article [SEE HERE] and if CTH had any insight. While I generally refrain from discussion based on speculation, perhaps enough time has passed where my preferred lack of attention on the matter provides room for a quick outline.
Within the Sperry article, this fragment surfaces:
…”These well-placed sources also say that diGenova has cultivated several new witnesses, including whistleblowers from the intelligence community and the FBI, and that his team has also uncovered significant new evidence, including a massive FBI document spanning several hundred pages that reportedly exposes new malfeasance in the bureau’s probe of Trump’s alleged ties to Russia, codenamed Crossfire Hurricane, which was begun before the 2016 election.”…
“New malfeasance” is not exactly how I would characterize the likely described material.
What Sperry’s sources seem to be outlining based on description, likely pertains to the FBI contractor issue from 2015 and 2016 where access to the NSA database was defensively investigated after the NSA compliance officer raised flags about unauthorized use.
You may remember that somewhere between 1,000 and 9,999 illegal searches were conducted repeatedly using the same identifiers, between November 2015 and April 2016. The source of those searches was attributed to “FBI contractors.”
The period in question (’15 – ’16) when combined with the description given by FISA Court Presiding Justice Rosemary Collyer [first graphic above], indicated the queries were political in nature – conducted on GOP Presidential candidates; essentially, political surveillance.
The discovery of the process triggered the NSA Director to question the FBI Director about the nature and purpose of the FBI contractor queries. That questioning triggered a defensive response from the FBI to justify what had taken place.
Later, as part of Office of Inspector General Michael Horowitz review of unauthorized violations of the FISA (702) process, the OIG reviewed the FBI use of contractors to include the issue originally outlined in early 2017. [second graphic above]
The document(s) described to Paul Sperry would appear to be the result of the FBI internal review and justification, as well as explanations given to the OIG. That “several hundred-page FBI reports” is apparently now under diGenova review.
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U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has made it official. Delivering an official statement today following a discussion between the United States, Mexico and Canada, USTR Jamieson Greer informed the group the USA will not be renewing the USMCA trilateral trade agreement. [SOURCE]
[SOURCE]
Unfortunately, yet predictably given how much false information has been pushed on this issue, the Canadian team will now believe they have a period of ten consecutive years of negotiation before the trade deal is over. This is structurally and completely false. The Canadian media will likely continue selling this false hope.
In reality, with the non-renewal announcement now made, President Trump and USTR Greer can now complete the bilateral trade discussions with Mexico (noted in the announcement) and then move to stage two.
Stage two will be the United States announcing a complete withdrawal from the USMCA, which triggers a six-month countdown clock. The formal notification of withdrawal will likely happen once the U.S. and Mexico complete the bilateral free trade agreement.
I understand that I am somewhat of a nerd on this USMCA construct and the Trump approach toward it. Therefore, it is unfair of me to judge perspectives of pundits. I have studied the granular details for several years, read dozens of transcripts from the USTR office, watched every interview and statement from President Trump and USTR Greer; yet I am still gob-smacked at the inability of the Canadian media to recognize what is evident and explain what is about to take place.
There is a possibility in this non-renewal phase the Canadian people might just start to question why they are being misled by their government and the media; however, I am not optimistic they will realize it yet.
As noted by this article from Barrons, the denial is off the charts. [SEE HERE]
President Trump has said repeatedly he does not see value in retaining the USMCA (CUSMA) and the only purpose it served was to eliminate NAFTA. The USMCA had one job, eliminate NAFTA.
Both President Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer have been very clear; Trump in direct words, Greer in direct action.
President Trump has said the USMCA was not a trade agreement he wanted to retain, while USTR Greer has been building a bilateral free trade agreement with Mexico for 18 months. No effort has been extended toward Canada, because the last stage, stage #3, is where a U.S-Canada bilateral trade agreement will be introduced.
Stage #1 – Announce the non-renewal of the USMCA.
Stage #2 – Complete the bilateral trade agreement with Mexico.
Announce the formal withdrawal from the USMCA, trigger the 6-month countdown.
Stage #3 – Begin negotiating with Canada while the 6-month doomsday clock is ticking. This is optimal leverage.
No part of this process should be a surprise. The Canadian government is willfully obtuse, but they are not stupid. They are hearing, reading and seeing the same things as me. They know what is coming. The Canadian government, with the assistance of the Canadian media, are willfully lying to their domestic audience.
The Canadian electorate are angry at the USA. The Canadian electorate should be angry at their media and government.
For some bizarre reason, and I mean this with great seriousness and sadness, the Canadian people do not comprehend the nature of their economic relationship with the United States.
Canada doesn’t sell 75% of their products to the United States. The United States buys 75% of Canadian products.
The USA is the customer in the relationship. Canada is the seller. The customer holds the leverage in this relationship, not the seller.
The customer is under no obligation to purchase goods from a hostile seller: who ridicules them, belittles them, shouts at them, makes each visit uncomfortable for them, tells them how stupid they are, and is generally abusive to them.
For some unknown reason, Canadians just cannot see the nature of this relationship. There is a very weird abusive psychology behind it, created by the Canadian government. It is the strangest thing I have ever witnessed.
{{Steps off Soapbox}}
Bottom line, you all know what is going to come next. {GO DEEP} I love, genuinely love and respect our Canadian Treepers, but Trump is going to unload all of that above sentiment over the next several months.
I doubt seriously anyone of relative importance in Canadian politics has the awareness or capability to grab the people that matter by the scruff of the neck and tell them to ‘knock it off‘ and find some humility. It’s no longer a Canadian trait.
…During this period, President Trump carries massive leverage against Canada. He will likely probe their trade position and willingness to comply with reciprocity after the non-renewal announcement. The outcome of those probes will determine the timeline of his exit announcement.
During this non-renewal phase, we may even see President Trump tease the exit, then retract, then tease the exit again. Each time Trump tests the Canadian government with statements, the Canadian economy will pulsate and weaken; it will drive the Canadian government to either extreme anger, or defeated compliance.
Timing the completion of the U.S-Mexico deal within the probes of Canada will be super interesting. At some point as the U.S. closes in on the deal with Mexico, Canada is going to realize they are naked without any agreement.
The worst-case scenario for Canada is President Trump announcing the USMCA exit on the same day he announces a completed bilateral deal with Mexico. (more)
Last point. Expect the U.K and EU to financially backstop Canada and purchase sovereign debt in an effort to support them financially. It will not be enough, but they will try to offset Trump’s leverage. Keep watching.
Everyone once in a while the cultural marxist way to describe a middle eastern attacker gets a new euphemism. Today’s update comes from politically correct Scotland.
“Tanned European man”
I wonder how long it took them to come up with that one?
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
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