Russia is now advising psychological counseling for women who do not intend to have children, which is precisely the type of response governments default to when they refuse to confront economic reality. They search for cultural or emotional explanations when the issue is economical.
Russia’s fertility rate has fallen to roughly 1.4 children per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement level, and total births have declined to near post-Soviet lows at just over 1.2 million annually. This decline has been persistent, not cyclical, and the population is aging rapidly as deaths continue to exceed births. At the same time, the war has removed a significant portion of young men from the population.
The same pattern is unfolding across all developed economies. Europe’s fertility rate is now near 1.3. Spain and Italy are closer to 1.1. Germany is around 1.4. France, once the exception, has fallen sharply and recently recorded more deaths than births for the first time in decades. Japan has been below replacement for years and continues to contract. Even countries that implemented aggressive family subsidies, such as Norway and Hungary, have failed to reverse the trend.
Globally, fertility has collapsed from more than 5 children per woman in the 1960s to just above two today, and the developed world is already well below replacement. The common explanation offered by governments is psychological or social. They speak of changing values, delayed adulthood, or lifestyle preferences. That explanation collapses under scrutiny because it ignores the economic structure that determines behavior.
People do not make long-term commitments, such as having children, without confidence in their financial future. Children represent the largest long-term investment a household can make. When confidence declines, that investment is postponed or abandoned.
At the same time, dual-income households became the norm not by choice but by necessity. A single income no longer supports a family in most developed economies. This fundamentally changes having children because both parents must remain in the workforce to maintain financial stability. Long ago, children helped to secure a family’s financial future, but the opposite rings true today.
Russia’s situation simply reflects these dynamics in a more concentrated form. Economic uncertainty, war, sanctions, and structural inefficiencies amplify the same forces present elsewhere. When surveys show that a large percentage of women do not plan to have children in the near term, that is not a psychological condition. It is a rational response to economic instability amid war. Women in Russia must now face the harsh reality that their husbands will face a compulsory draft, and they will be left raising children alone.
Historically, birth rates rise during periods of expansion and confidence. The post-World War II baby boom occurred because housing was affordable, employment was stable, and future prospects were positive. The economic structure supported family formation. Today, the structure works in the opposite direction. Housing costs, taxation, childcare expenses, and job insecurity create an environment in which the cost of raising children exceeds the perceived benefits. Governments attempt to offset this with subsidies, but those programs do not address the core issue, whixh is the declining return on productive activity relative to cost.
This is why policies focused on incentives have failed. Hungary introduced substantial financial benefits for families. Norway expanded welfare support. France has long provided family subsidies. None of these measures reversed the long-term decline because they do not change the underlying economic equation.
The demographic consequences are significant. A declining birthrate leads to a shrinking workforce, increasing dependency ratios, and pressure on pension systems. Governments respond by raising taxes or increasing borrowing, which further reduces the net income available to working households. This creates a feedback loop that reinforces the decline.
When confidence in the future declines, long-term investments decline. Children are the most fundamental long-term investment in any society. The decline in birth rates is therefore not a social anomaly but a direct reflection of economic confidence. Russia proposing psychological counseling illustrates how far removed policy responses have become from reality. This is not a question of convincing people to want children. It is a question of creating an economic environment where having children is viable.
Categories:Civilizati
The Pentagon is now requesting more than $200 billion in additional funding tied to the war with Iran, and the Secretary of Defense stated plainly that “it takes money to kill bad guys.” That statement may sound crude, but it is one of the rare moments where Washington actually tells the truth about war, because war has always been about capital, and the numbers now emerging are already confirming the pattern that has unfolded in every major conflict.
Within the first week alone, the United States spent approximately $11.3 billion, and more comprehensive estimates quickly pushed that figure toward $12.7 billion and beyond, with daily costs running in the range of $500 million or higher. These figures do not include troop deployment, equipment replacement, or reconstruction of depleted stockpiles, which historically account for the majority of total war expenditures, and that is where analysts always underestimate the true cost. The ripple effect of war through the global economy is another topic.
The United States is already operating with a military budget approaching $900 billion to over $960 billion depending on how it is measured under the latest authorization cycles, and that figure alone represents nearly 35% of total global military spending. When a government is already spending at that level before a major conflict escalates, any additional war simply layers on top of an already massive fiscal structure rather than creating a temporary expense.
Another $200 billion is not the cost of the war. That is the opening bid, as first numbers presented to Congress are always understated because they reflect immediate needs. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars followed the same trajectory, beginning with relatively modest projections and ultimately costing trillions.
The data coming out of the current conflict already shows the same dynamic. The Pentagon initially reported costs focused on munitions alone, yet analysts noted that these estimates excluded entire categories of spending, including logistics, personnel, and equipment replacement, which means the actual cost is already far higher than what is being publicly discussed. When high-cost systems such as long-range missiles, interceptor systems, and carrier strike group operations are deployed, the burn rate of capital accelerates dramatically, and those costs compound as the conflict continues.
It often costs millions of dollars to intercept weapons that cost tens of thousands to produce. Interceptors such as Patriot and THAAD systems can cost between $4 million and $12 million per unit, while the drones they are designed to destroy may cost a fraction of that.
Can we afford a war? Janet Yellen once said America could afford perpetual warfare. Yet, the US national debt has now exceeded $39 trillion, rising rapidly with deficits well above $1 trillion annually. War does not occur in isolation from fiscal policy. It accelerates existing trends, particularly the expansion of government debt and the diversion of capital away from productive investment.
From the perspective of the Economic Confidence Model, this is exactly what we expect to see at this stage in the cycle. The 2020.05 turning point marked the beginning of a major shift in confidence, where governments expanded aggressively and fiscal discipline deteriorated. By the time we reached the 2024.35 phase, geopolitical tensions were rising across multiple regions, and capital was increasingly moving toward government as uncertainty in the private sector intensified.
Now moving into the 2026 wave, the model has been pointing to rising instability, and war becomes both a consequence and a driver of that shift. Governments expand military spending as confidence declines domestically, and that expansion further concentrates capital within the public sector. The private sector does not benefit from this in any meaningful long-term way. War spending does create economic activity in the short term, but it does not create sustainable growth. It destroys capital and then requires additional capital to rebuild what has been destroyed. Every missile fired, every aircraft deployed, every ship sent into a conflict zone represents capital consumption, not capital formation.
The request for $200 billion to replenish stockpiles illustrates another reality that is always ignored. War does not end when the shooting stops. The financial obligations continue for years through the replacement of equipment, the expansion of industrial production, and the long-term care of personnel. That is why the true cost of war is always measured over decades, not months.
The FBI has now openly admitted that it is purchasing location data on Americans, confirming what many suspected for years. Director Kash Patel testified that the agency “does purchase commercially available information” and uses “all tools” to carry out its mission, which includes data capable of tracking people’s movements without a warrant.
This is being framed as a legal technicality, but that misses the entire point. The Constitution requires a warrant to obtain this type of information directly from telecom companies, yet by purchasing the same data from private brokers, the government simply bypasses that requirement. Lawmakers have already called this an “outrageous end-run around the Fourth Amendment,” and that is exactly what it is.
What we are witnessing is not new. Governments throughout history always expand surveillance when they begin to lose confidence domestically. The key detail here is not that the FBI is collecting data. It is how the data is being obtained. This information is sourced from the private sector through a multibillion-dollar data broker industry that aggregates location data from everyday phone apps, advertising systems, and digital platforms. The government is not hacking phones. It is simply buying what corporations already collect. That is what creates the legal gray area.
Data has become a commodity. Once something becomes a commodity, it can be bought and sold. Governments, like any other participant, will purchase what they need if the law allows it. The problem is that the law has not kept pace with technology, leaving a gap large enough to drive surveillance through.
This also ties directly into what I have warned about for years regarding financial surveillance. Governments began by monitoring bank accounts, tracking transactions, and implementing reporting requirements under the justification of preventing crime. That expanded steadily. Now we are moving into full behavioral tracking through digital data. The progression is always incremental, never abrupt.
The involvement of artificial intelligence makes this far more significant. Lawmakers have already warned that the ability to analyze “massive amounts of private information” changes the nature of surveillance entirely. It is no longer about targeting individuals. It becomes about pattern recognition across entire populations. That is a very different level of control.
The argument that the data is “commercially available” is also misleading. Just because something can be purchased does not mean it should be used without restriction by the state. The Constitution was designed to limit government power, not to be circumvented by market transactions.
The issue is that the legal framework itself is outdated and being used to justify practices that would have been considered unconstitutional in a previous era. This is how systems evolve. Technology advances, laws lag, and governments exploit the gap. By the time the public recognizes what has happened, the infrastructure is already in place.
From a confidence perspective, this is a warning sign. When governments begin to rely more on surveillance than on economic growth and stability, it reflects a shift away from maintaining confidence through prosperity and toward maintaining control through information.
Video P
QUESTION: You said that in the Iraq War, they dragged out Bush to claim victory in just 6 weeks yet it took 8 years to finish. Do you see Trump declaring victory soon as well?
Paul
ANSWER: There is no question that President Donald Trump wants to declare victory ASAP. The problem is that Tehran also gets to vote on that subject and so does Netanyahu. It is true that the US has eliminated Iran’s navy, and much of its missile stockpile has also been destroyed, along with the assassinations of the Ayatollah and top leaders that was Netanyahu’s objectives. On the surface, it appears that Trump is nearing the goals his military leaders. However, he has not accomplished regime change, which has been Netanyahu’s #1 goal. If Trump attempts to exist, he may find that Netanyahu will take action to drag the US in deeper.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel “acted alone” in attacking an Iranian gas field, as tensions mount over strikes on energy infrastructure across the region. This is my point. We are NOT in full control of this war not matter what verbiage is used to not legally call this a war. Iran has retaliated striking the gas fields of Qatar. Let’s be clear here, while the US and Israel claim they devasted Iran. they are now using the more sophisticated missiles and they have been planning for this for a long time. We publicly said that a second carrier group was being sent and this too was a signal for they to prepare for the end-game war.
Videu has played Trump for a fool. He has achieved his goal drag American into this war spending billions. Some of the objectives that President Trump continues to espouse simply cannot be achieved without physical boots on the ground. There is no way to secure the claimed uranium without a physical presence. Netanyahu has been claiming three state were pursuing nuclear weapons since he testified before Congress in 2002. He should let Israel do that since they have been playing the nuclear card since for at least 24 years.
Trump may be forced to send in ground troops to try to secure the shoreline of the Strait of Hormuz. Something else on the table is sending in troops to seized their Kharg Island. Seizing the island holds enormous risk when the support for Trump in the war is marginal at best. Seizing Kharg Island may ignite a full-scale war by Iran against energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. A widening conflict in the Middle East involving the destruction of oil fields ports, and natural gas storage depots could send crude prices soaring which our computer has been warning we may yet see $200 oil. This combined with our Economic Confidence Model projecting global recession between 2024 into 2028 has been spot on. If Trump send boots on the ground, it may be late April into May/June.
Keep in mind that we entered Afghanistan in the war on terror. Bin Laden was killed in 2011. But we did not leave Afghanistan with a tail between out leges for 11 more years. Iran is going to look at how we have fought wars and that includes Iraq. They have been preparing for a long time. You have had Netanyahu running around screaming they have nukes soe we must destroy Iran. If they had nukes, we would not be invading. It is unlikely that Iran has any nuclear bomb. What they could have done is construct suitcase-dirty-bombs and spread them around the USA, EU, and perhaps even Israel.
The one thing I have come to comprehend in my study of various conflicts, is that you do NOT necessarily need a god or some supreme leader to fight an on going was of attrition for time is on Iran’s side, the one thing that is required to keep going is not some god, but a devil. As long as you can hate an adversary, then you will continue to fight. I totally disagree with Netanyahu’s strategy of decapitating the heads of so0me group or nation, for such assassinations only feed the image of the Devil. The USA and Israel are the Devils and anyone who thinks this will end is a fool. This has created another generation of terrorists.
As far as UAE is concerned, it was the largest airport in the region with some 90 million passengers passing through. It was part of the Abraham Accords and even conducted joint military exercises with Israel. A Saudi academic on TV accused UAE as operating in the interest of Zionists in the Arab world. He also accused the UAE of funding activists in Yemen who operated against Saudi’s interests. Over the last 18 months, there has been an unreported alliance forming between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.It is essentially a NATO-like treaty with a mutual defense clause like Article 5 aligning all three nation states. The Saudis bring the unprecedented finance, Turkey brings the largest military to the deal but it is also a member of NATO so it brings more than the 2nd largest army in NATO, it brings intelligence. Pakistan brings the nuclear weapons since it is also the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world and it also has ballistic missiles. So why the Neocons have been focused on Iran and Iraq for nuclear weapons, they missed the fact that Pakistan has in fact brought a nuclear alliance to the Sunni Muslims which is not so friendly to Israel.
UAE was deliberately not invited to this ne Middle East NATO framework. Saudi Arabia on TV even said publicly that UAE is a problem. They have sought to overthrow UAE as the financial capital of the Middle East. This is why Tehran rained down more missiles on UAE than they did on Israel. What is unfolding here is the Neocons seemed to have also not been invited to the party. They have been too arrogant in the presumption of power to pay close attention to a new alliance that will reshape the Middle East from here on out.
The danger of targeting the leadership in Iran is the risk of creating a vacuum whereby that just may be filled not by the Neocon backroom deals, but China and Russia for the excessive bombing and assassinations carried out in Iran has left behind that dark image of the Devil.
Iran is not completely wiped out. They have proxies and sleeper cells along with strategic missiles where they have used the cheap ones so far. How wars are fought is changing. Iran is clearly waging an economic war of attrition and time is on their side.
The Wall Street Journal just published an eye opening report on how NATO is not prepared for war and night is the USA if it attempts to invade with boots on the ground. A single team of some 10 Ukrainians, acting as the adversary, counterattacked the NATO forces. In about half a day they mock-destroyed 17 armored vehicles and conducted 30 “strikes” on other targets. Multiple sources told the story of one commander, who observed the drill and concluded, “We are f—.” They always seem to prepare to fight the last war. But that never happens. Drones and surveillance has change warfare just as they once thought a destroyer, then an aircraft carrier, and of course nuclear weapons would prevent war.
Everyone has an opinion. Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong. Opinions are are always questionable because we are human and prone to not just mistakes, but this can also be biased that means it is skewed to one side or the other. But in time of war, TRUTH is always the first victim. Socrates has no human opinion. That is what has made it so valuable in times of crisis. The Timing Array mapped the rally perfectly. No human can make such a forecast from a gut perspective.
Unfortunately, it looks like Trump has gotten himself into a real jam. He has trusted Netanyahu who could care less about the United States or even Israel. This is all about his personal hatred of Iranians and his Biblical justification for genocide. The computer is still warning we may yet see $200 oil before this is over.
Never forget, Britain was the major power during the American Revolution. Washington fought a gorilla war and won. These Neocons, including Netanyahu, think having the biggest military means victory. History wars that such arrogance is often punished. Carthage was the major power and was defeated by Rome. Persian was the biggest power and was defeated by Alexander the Great. Th examples from history and endless.
QUESTION: Marty, many people know about your forecast of Russia, 1987, 2007 high in real estate, Nikkei, the collapse of communism and so many, but I think even you forgot your forecast that oil would collapse to $10 in 1998 and then swing up to $100. I remember even Bloomberg covered that forecast that nobody would believe. You have been the master forecaster for you have projected what you call slingshots many times. I asked AI if you made that forecast and it confirmed you made that forecast back in 1998.
Do you still see oil rising to $200 in the years ahead?
Josh
ANSWER: Oh yes, I do remember that. It was Mark Pitman at Bloomberg who was astonished by that forecast. Yes, I still see oil is rising to $200 in the years ahead. Academics will never understand such forecasts. There is no random walk and there certainly is no efficient market nonsense. Markets always overshoot and undershoot the logical expectations.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
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