I have warned that once geopolitical tensions ignite, they do not remain contained, and what we are now witnessing is the steady expansion of conflict lines as Turkey is being recast from a strategic NATO partner into a geopolitical threat by the very alliance it once helped anchor.
The European Union has now openly shifted its tone, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen effectively grouping Turkey alongside Russia and China, stating that Europe must ensure it is not influenced by “Russia, Turkey or China,” which is an extraordinary statement when directed at a NATO member and signals a clear break in strategic trust, especially when such language aligns closely with broader geopolitical narratives emerging from the Middle East.
Not so coincidentally, tensions are escalating rapidly between Turkey and Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Israel faces a widening circle of adversaries and must prepare for emerging threats across the region. Turkish officials have responded by accusing Israel of deliberately seeking its “next enemy,” with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stating that Israel “cannot live without an enemy.” Bibi has remained in control by posturing Israel as on the defensive against external enemies, yet he has become the aggressor. It is Netanyahu, not Israel, who could not survive without an enemy to ward off.
When you step back and examine Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, this is a nation that has never accepted a subordinate role within Europe. Turkey has long viewed itself as a regional power with deep historical roots tied to the Ottoman Empire, and Erdoğan has made that posture explicit by declaring that no one can “threaten or bully Turkey,” reinforcing Ankara’s willingness to confront both Europe and its traditional allies when it perceives its sovereignty to be at risk.
What makes this situation far more dangerous is that Turkey is not a minor player that can simply be pressured into compliance, because it possesses one of the largest and most capable militaries in NATO, second only to the United States in manpower, with hundreds of thousands of active personnel, advanced drone capabilities, and a strategic geographic position controlling access between Europe, the Black Sea, and the Middle East, which makes any deterioration in relations far more consequential than policymakers appear willing to acknowledge.
Europe continues to depend on Turkey for migration control, regional security, and energy transit routes, yet it is now publicly labeling the nation as a threat. This is precisely how alliances fracture and friends turn into foes.
The growing hostility between Turkey and Israel introduces an additional layer of risk, because both nations operate militarily within overlapping regions such as Syria.
Europe’s decision to move against Turkey also risks pushing Ankara further away from the Western sphere and toward alternative alliances, including Russia and China, thereby accelerating the fragmentation of the global order and weakening NATO cohesion at a time when it is already under strain.
Broader conflicts are not triggered by a single event, but by a series of shifts in rhetoric, policy, all building momentum until the system reaches a breaking point. The reality is that Turkey is no longer treated as a reliable ally by Europe. As Israel elevates Turkey within its own threat framework, Europe appears to be following that trajectory, signaling a deeper realignment that will have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and the future of the Western alliance.
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I have said for years that governments and institutions always begin with what people will accept and then gradually expand from there. What we are now seeing in educational technology is perhaps one of the most disturbing developments, because it targets children under the guise of learning.
Studies have now confirmed that roughly 90% of commonly used school apps are transmitting tracking data, even when they are not actively being used, and many contain hidden third-party trackers operating in the background. This is not simply about helping a student complete homework or communicate with a teacher; this is continuous data collection that records behavior, interaction patterns, and device activity regardless of whether the child is even aware it is happening.
For many reading this, particularly those who did not grow up in a digital classroom, it is important to understand how pervasive these platforms have become, as students today are required to use them for nearly every aspect of their education. Assignments, testing, communication, textbooks, and grading have all moved into apps and online systems, meaning participation is no longer optional, it is mandatory. Parents assume these tools exist to support education, yet behind the curtain, they are functioning as data collection systems layered into the daily routine of children.
I see this as no different from what we witnessed with Pokémon Go, where people believed they were simply playing a game, but in reality, they were contributing to a massive data collection operation. The difference here is that children are not choosing to participate, they are required to, and instead of mapping physical locations, these systems are mapping behavior, attention spans, learning patterns, and interaction habits from a very early age.
What is being built is not just an academic record, but a behavioral profile that follows the individual over time, capturing how they think, how they respond, how long they focus, and how they engage with information. Once that data is collected, it does not simply vanish, it becomes part of a broader ecosystem that can be analyzed, shared, and monetized in ways that are rarely disclosed in plain terms.
Many of these platforms rely on third-party integrations, which means the data is not confined to a single provider but is distributed across multiple entities, each extracting value from it. This creates a web of data collection that is nearly impossible for parents to fully understand or control, and the more these systems are adopted, the more normalized this becomes.
From my perspective, this is how control expands, not through force, but through normalization. When data collection is embedded into something like a game, people participate willingly, but when it is embedded into education, it becomes institutional. That is a very dangerous shift, because it removes the ability to opt out without consequence.
We are moving into a system where data is the new currency, and the earlier it is collected, the more valuable it becomes. Starting that process in childhood creates a lifetime of behavioral data that can be used to predict, influence, and potentially control outcomes in ways that most people do not yet fully grasp.
I have said for years that people misunderstand the global monetary system. It is not driven by trade balances. It is driven by capital flows and access to dollar liquidity. The discussion of a currency swap between the United States and the United Arab Emirates shows how the system actually works under stress.
The United States is now considering a currency swap with the UAE as tensions around Iran rise. This is not about trade policy. It is about liquidity. When uncertainty increases, capital begins to move. Countries need dollars to stabilize their financial systems and maintain confidence.
Currency swaps are often presented as technical tools. In reality, they are lifelines. They allow a foreign central bank to access U.S. dollars directly. This bypasses stressed markets and helps prevent a liquidity crisis that could trigger capital flight.
This is exactly what happens during geopolitical conflict. The Iran situation has raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. That region is critical for global energy flows. When energy is threatened, markets react immediately. Currency volatility rises and capital seeks safety.
The UAE is a strong economy, but it is still exposed. Its currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, meaning it must maintain sufficient dollar reserves to function properly. When global stress increases, even strong economies seek direct dollar access. That is why a swap line becomes important.
There is also a geopolitical layer. Currency swaps are tools of influence. When the United States provides dollar liquidity, it reinforces alignment. If access is restricted, countries look for alternatives. That can include increasing use of other currencies like the Chinese yuan. The UAE has stated it would consider using the yuan if the U.S. denies them the opportunity to swap, but the issue has become polarizing.
“The war in Iran has already cost us dearly,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. Said to Treasury Secretary Bessent. “In addition to lives lost, we’re talking about over a billion dollars a day in taxpayer money, we’re talking about higher gas prices, higher prices overall, and now we understand that the UAE is asking you to provide them a swap line through the Exchange Stabilization Fund.”
The key point people miss, because this is not about whether a country is rich, it is about whether it has access to dollars when the system comes under stress. This is precisely what I have always explained about currency swaps, because they are not favors or political gestures, they are lifelines, and when a country fears losing dollar inflows, especially one tied to oil exports through a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, it must secure liquidity or risk instability in its currency, its banking system, and ultimately its entire economy.
This is also where many misunderstand de-dollarization. The world is not abandoning the dollar. It is trying to create options as nations want flexibility as geopolitical risks rise. Currency swaps are central to that process because they determine access to liquidity.
Confidence drives markets. When confidence falls, capital moves quickly. Without liquidity, currencies weaken, and systems come under pressure. Governments respond with tools like currency swaps to restore stability.
The fact that this swap is being considered tells you pressure is already building. These agreements are not routine. They are signals that policymakers expect volatility and a continued crisis.
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