Posted Posted originally on: Oct 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

The latest inflation figures should put an end to the ridiculous claims that inflation has been defeated. The Producer Price Index surged 1.3% in September alone, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, while wholesale prices are now rising at an annual rate of 6.3%. Economists had expected an increase of approximately 0.6%, yet the actual number was more than DOUBLE their forecast. The Consumer Price Index released the previous day showed inflation accelerating to 3.7%, and now we see the pressure building at the producer level as well. Washington keeps assuring the public that inflation is under control while the cost of producing and distributing virtually everything continues climbing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale energy prices jumped 10.8% in September, with gasoline prices at the producer level surging 20.3%. Food prices increased another 1.2%, while the index for final demand goods rose 2.6%, the largest monthly increase since that series began in 2009. Even excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.7%, demonstrating that the problem extends beyond the oil market. Businesses are being hit with rising costs at virtually every stage of production, and those increases do not simply disappear because some economist sitting in Washington believes inflation should return to 2%.

The retail sales report released alongside the inflation data is equally revealing. Retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating expectations of approximately 0.3%, and the financial press immediately began celebrating the supposed resilience of the American consumer. Yet gasoline station sales surged 7.1%, and retail sales excluding gasoline increased only 0.2%. The control group used in calculating GDP, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, managed an increase of just 0.1%. Consumers are spending more money, but a considerable portion of that increase reflects the higher price of necessities rather than any meaningful improvement in their standard of living.

This is the great deception in the way economic statistics are presented to the public. Retail sales are measured in dollars and are not adjusted for inflation. If gasoline costs another 20% and the public continues purchasing roughly the same amount because they must drive to work, the government records higher sales. That does not mean consumers have suddenly become wealthier or more confident. It means they are surrendering more of their disposable income to purchase what they were already buying. The same applies to groceries, utilities, insurance, and countless other expenses that cannot simply be eliminated from a household budget.

Americans have already endured an enormous increase in the cost of living since 2020. The pandemic-era monetary expansion helped create a massive inflationary surge, and those price increases were never reversed. When inflation temporarily declined from 9% to 3%, politicians celebrated as though they had somehow restored purchasing power. They had done NOTHING of the sort. Prices remained elevated, and every additional monthly increase compounds the damage. A family that could once afford a mortgage, two vehicles, groceries, and occasional savings is now being forced to make choices between expenses that were previously manageable on the same income.

The energy situation is particularly troubling because the conflict involving Iran has disrupted petroleum markets and pushed fuel costs higher. Diesel is essential to agriculture, trucking, construction, and manufacturing. A farmer cannot refuse to operate his equipment because fuel has become expensive, and a trucking company cannot deliver goods without diesel. Those businesses must either absorb the additional costs, reduce operations, or pass the increases along to their customers. Higher energy prices eventually work their way through the entire economy, and today’s producer inflation becomes tomorrow’s pressure on consumer prices. That pass-through is neither automatic nor uniform, but the squeeze on business margins is already apparent.

Now the Federal Reserve is confronted with another problem of its own making. Inflation is accelerating, wholesale prices are rising faster than consumer prices, and government borrowing continues expanding. Kevin Warsh can raise interest rates in an attempt to restrain demand, but higher rates will not produce additional oil or reduce the cost of shipping goods through a disrupted international energy market. They will, however, increase financing costs for businesses, homebuyers, and consumers already struggling to manage their expenses. The Fed is being asked to correct problems that monetary policy alone cannot resolve.

Washington has accumulated more than $40 trillion in federal debt and continues spending without any serious plan to restore fiscal discipline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent must find buyers for that debt while the government competes with the private sector for available capital. Higher inflation also encourages bond investors to demand greater yields because nobody wants to lend money for ten or thirty years only to discover that inflation has destroyed the real value of their investment. The government wants lower interest rates to reduce its borrowing costs, but the bond market must consider inflation, sovereign risk, and international capital flows. Politicians cannot simply command investors to ignore those realities.

The September figures show wholesale inflation accelerating to 6.3% while the apparent strength in retail sales is being heavily influenced by expensive gasoline. This is hardly evidence of a healthy consumer economy. Inflation is again gathering momentum, and the government has fewer options than it wants to admit because its own debt and spending have become part of the problem.

Posted Posted originally on: Oct 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Fannie Mae has sharply raised its mortgage rate forecast for 2027, and the revision should put an end to the fantasy that Americans can simply wait another year for cheap money to return. Economists now expect the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to reach 7.4% during the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain around 7.5% throughout 2027. Only recently, Fannie Mae was forecasting 6.8% for the end of this year and 6.7% for next year.

I have explained that the artificially low mortgage rates during the pandemic were an anomaly created by extraordinary monetary intervention. People became accustomed to borrowing at 2% or 3% and somehow concluded that this was normal. It was NEVER normal. The Federal Reserve suppressed interest rates, purchased enormous quantities of mortgage-backed securities and government debt, and helped create one of the most distorted real estate markets in American history. Home prices exploded because buyers could suddenly borrow more money at artificially low rates, and now those inflated property values remain while the cost of financing has more than doubled.

The September inflation report should explain why mortgage rates are moving in the opposite direction from what real estate agents and politicians have been promising. Inflation has accelerated to 3.7%, gasoline prices have surged, and energy costs are filtering throughout the economy. Meanwhile, Washington has accumulated more than $40 trillion in debt and continues borrowing without any serious intention of balancing the budget. Investors are demanding higher yields to hold government securities, and mortgage rates respond primarily to the bond market rather than whatever overnight rate the Federal Reserve decides to announce.

The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising, and mortgage lenders must price loans according to the cost of capital, inflation expectations, and the risk of holding mortgage-backed securities. Kevin Warsh could cut the federal funds rate tomorrow, but that would not automatically bring mortgage rates down. The Fed does not control the entire yield curve, and the Treasury market is increasingly reflecting the enormous demand for capital coming from governments that refuse to stop borrowing. Washington wants cheaper money, but the international bond market has no obligation to provide it.

Consider what this means for the average homebuyer. A $350,000 mortgage at 3% carries a monthly principal and interest payment of approximately $1,476. At 7.5%, that same loan costs approximately $2,447 per month, nearly $1,000 more before property taxes, insurance, maintenance, or association fees. Yet home prices have not returned to their pre-pandemic levels. The buyer is being asked to finance a vastly more expensive property at more than twice the interest rate, while wages have failed to keep pace with the cumulative increase in the cost of living.

This has created two entirely different real estate markets. Existing homeowners who locked in mortgages below 3% have little incentive to sell because purchasing another home would mean surrendering their cheap financing. First-time buyers face inflated property prices, higher borrowing costs, rising insurance premiums, and property taxes that have climbed alongside valuations. Those who purchased homes with cash or accumulated substantial equity are in a completely different position from younger households attempting to enter the market. The result is fewer transactions, homes sitting longer in many markets, and sellers gradually discovering that buyers cannot afford yesterday’s asking prices.

Pending home sales fell 8.5% in September compared with a year earlier, while mortgage demand continues to weaken. Fannie Mae’s revised forecast reflects a market already struggling with affordability, not merely some theoretical possibility of higher rates next year. Buyers cannot qualify for mortgages simply because a seller believes their property should be worth another 20%. Real estate ultimately depends upon the purchasing power of the buyer, and that purchasing power has been severely damaged.

The real estate industry continues telling people to buy now and refinance later, but that assumes mortgage rates will decline substantially in the foreseeable future. Nobody can guarantee that outcome. The government is the largest borrower, inflation remains elevated, and capital is being demanded by governments and private industry simultaneously. There is no economic law requiring mortgage rates to return to the artificially suppressed levels of the pandemic, regardless of how badly politicians, realtors, and homeowners would like that to happen.

The housing market must eventually adjust to the price of money rather than expecting the price of money to adjust to inflated housing values. That adjustment will not be uniform because some regions remain supported by population growth and cash buyers while others face mounting inventory and weakening demand. Fannie Mae has now acknowledged that higher mortgage rates may persist through 2027, but the greater problem is that an entire generation was encouraged to believe the abnormal conditions of 2020 and 2021 represented a permanent new reality. They did not, and the longer sellers and buyers wait for those conditions to return, the longer this market remains trapped between what people want for their homes and what buyers can actually afford.

Posted Posted originally on: Oct 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

Hyundai Motor Group has announced plans to invest $15.5 billion in India through 2032, further demonstrating how the global automobile industry is shifting toward emerging economies. The South Korean manufacturer intends to expand production, strengthen research and development, and transform India into a major manufacturing and export hub. This is occurring as European automobile manufacturers struggle with declining competitiveness, expensive energy, and government mandates that have undermined an industry that once dominated global manufacturing. India, meanwhile, is attracting the very investment that Western governments seem determined to drive away.

Hyundai already has annual production capacity exceeding 1.4 million vehicles in India through its manufacturing operations, including Kia. The company is expanding its facilities and allocating approximately $700 million toward research and development. Its newly inaugurated Pune plant, built on a former General Motors facility, further shows how production capacity is being redeployed internationally. This is not merely about assembling inexpensive vehicles for the domestic market. Hyundai wants India to become a center for engineering, design, technological development, and exports. The capital is being committed for years into the future because management sees a market capable of supporting long-term growth.

I have written extensively about the decline of the automobile industry, particularly in Germany, where politicians have sacrificed manufacturing competitiveness to satisfy their insane climate objectives. The European Union decided to phase out the internal combustion engine while imposing costly environmental regulations and letting energy prices undermine industrial production. Volkswagen, once a symbol of German industrial strength, has been forced to confront factory closures and restructuring. The automobile industry supports far more than assembly workers. It sustains steel producers, chemical companies, electronics manufacturers, transportation networks, machine-tool producers, and thousands of smaller suppliers. Destroy the automobile industry and you begin dismantling an enormous portion of the industrial economy.

India is moving in the opposite direction. Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched Make in India in 2014 with the objective of expanding domestic manufacturing and attracting foreign capital. The automobile industry is now one of the clearest examples of that strategy. India has become the world’s third-largest passenger vehicle market, with approximately 4.5 million passenger vehicles sold during fiscal 2026. Total automobile production across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and other categories reached approximately 34.7 million units. Those figures represent an enormous industrial ecosystem that continues expanding as incomes rise and more households enter the consumer economy.

Hyundai is hardly alone. Suzuki has continued expanding its Indian production capacity, Toyota is planning another manufacturing facility, and Tata Motors has strengthened its partnership with Stellantis to develop vehicles for more than 50 international markets. That agreement is particularly important because India is moving beyond simply providing inexpensive labor. Indian companies are increasingly participating in engineering, vehicle architecture, research, and product development. The more technical expertise that develops domestically, the greater the economic benefit retained within India rather than being transferred entirely to foreign manufacturers.

I recently wrote that Indians are actually experiencing their economy grow in real time. The Western world has largely forgotten that. When factories open, infrastructure expands, employment opportunities increase, and families begin purchasing their first automobiles, economic growth becomes visible throughout society. An automobile purchase is often one of the most significant financial decisions a household makes after housing. Rising vehicle ownership is therefore an important reflection of expanding purchasing power and the development of a consumer middle class. India has a young population, growing domestic demand, and enormous potential for further motorization compared with mature markets where vehicle ownership is already widespread.

The contrast with Europe could hardly be greater. Brussels is obsessed with its 2030 emissions targets and the 2035 restrictions on new combustion-engine vehicles while European manufacturers face fierce competition from China and increasingly from other Asian producers. Germany is struggling to preserve industrial employment, yet its politicians continue imposing regulations that increase production costs. India is building factories, attracting foreign manufacturers, and encouraging the development of domestic supply chains. European politicians seem to believe prosperity can be legislated into existence through environmental targets while ignoring the capital investment necessary to sustain an industrial economy.

There are obviously challenges. India remains heavily dependent upon imported petroleum, and rising energy costs threaten manufacturers and consumers alike. Infrastructure, logistics, bureaucracy, and the availability of skilled labor remain important obstacles. Foreign investment also does not guarantee that every Indian worker will immediately enjoy higher living standards. Nevertheless, these are the challenges of an economy attempting to expand its productive capacity rather than one deliberately restricting it. India is building the industrial foundation necessary to support a larger middle class over the coming decades.

The international automobile industry is telling us where it sees the future. Manufacturers are not committing billions of dollars to India out of charity or political loyalty. They are investing because they see growing consumer demand, opportunities for exports, and the possibility of producing vehicles competitively for an expanding global market. Capital looks for opportunity, and the automobile industry is particularly sensitive to changes in labor costs, energy prices, taxation, regulation, and consumer confidence.

India does not need Germany, Japan, or China to collapse in order to succeed. There is room for another major automobile manufacturing center, particularly one serving a domestic market of more than 1.4 billion people. Hyundai’s $15.5 billion commitment demonstrates that multinational corporations increasingly recognize India’s potential as both a consumer market and a global production base. While much of the developed world is debating how to preserve industries it has burdened with taxes and regulations, India is attracting the investment required to create new ones. That is how economic power gradually shifts from one region of the world to another.

Categories:India

Posted Posted originally on: Oct 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |

QUESTION: Marty, do you have any direct contact with Trump? Is there any possible way to counteract the Democrats’ pro-war stance with NATO and the EU?

Don

ANSWER: No. I believe the Neocons are closing in, and the last letter I sent got no reply. That has never happened before. They are trying to create a bubble around him.  I do not see anyone in DC understanding that China and North Korea as well as Iran will coin Russia against Europe. Nobody seems to ever thing about the next step and they have no interest in even listening to such a scenario. They just dismiss it and assume Russia will just fall and China will wait for their turn. The question of diverting the US from WWIII is just not something they even want to contemplate no less take some action.

While I believe that Trump shifted on Iran to nothing before the election coming to terms that they are operating under a regime change and meeting with Xi, but I cannot say I accomplished that with direct contact with Trump himself.

Look at how many politicians jumped on the bankwagon with the masks, distancing, and lockdowns all for COVID which was a complete scam set in motion by the Globalists and the Climate Change nut-jobs. These morons are all on board with this same type of bullshit that Russia can be taken down, there will be no nuclear war, and Putin will surrender without firing a shot and simply say here, the country is yours for the taking.

People are so gullible. Look at Canada, Justin Trudeau and Carney live in a fantasy world. The World Bank puts Canada’s 2025 GDP per person at US$55,698. Mississippi, the poorest state in America, sits around US$55,877. New York State stands at $123,369 per person. The GDP of the EU stands at €18.8 trillion with 452 million people is €41,600 or  $48,867.52. and Carney wants to join the EU? Is this so Canada can bailout the EU and impose a military draft to defend his globalist dreams?

Julius Caesar said over 2,000 years ago that people believe what they want to believe. Nothing has ever changed. Humanity is led by the manipulations like a herd of sheep.

Maybe thousands of letters to the White House saying just publicly admit the Track Record of Socrates and demand he listen, might get through the Neocon security bubble that they will not be able to cover-up that many letters.

I’m the foolish optimist. I keep trying to defeat Socrates, but I have been told many times that I am the fool on the hill who sees the sun going down; The man of a thousand voices talking perfectly loud but nobody ever hears him, Or the sound he appears to make. “The Fool on the Hill” was written and sung by Paul McCartney, and the core meaning of the song is: a person deemed a “fool” by the world is often the one who truly sees through the essence of the world. There is a lot of truth in that statement.

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