Argentina | Centinel2012

Posted originally on Oct 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Question: Why is the $20 billion to Argentina not mentioned in the government budget debacle? Is this not more reckless spending?

Answer: It’s unclear how much of the $20 billion will actually be used, or whether all of it will go to the swap line vs. debt purchases vs. standby credit. There is a risk that Argentina may default, restructure, or be unable to repay. That raises questions about how the U.S. would recover or manage losses.

The U.S. is coordinating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which already has a large exposure to Argentina. Yet, Argentina is currently the IMF’s largest debtor with an alarming $41.8 billion owed.

The $20 billion swap line to Argentina’s central bank is a currency swap—it is not a bailout, although there are political motives. China could be the one stepping in and bailing out Argentina, ruining America’s alliance, and propping up the yuan over the dollar, and Washington does not want to see Argentina look toward non-dollar solutions. Beijing has strategically used debt diplomacy in recent years to expand its influence. In fact, China provides more in loans to emerging economies than the World Bank.

Argentina and China agreed to a bilateral currency swap worth RMB 70 billion (approx. $11 billion) in 2009. By 2022-2024, Argentina expanded access to the swap facility, reaching $18 billion in total, with $5 billion actively activated and renewed for direct use in 2025-2026. Argentina was deeply dependent on those swap lines and used Chinese debt to repay IMF debt, restructuring along the way, and falling deeper into the hole. Up to 95% of Argentina’s liquid reserves depended on Chinese swap funds during certain periods of time. The nation repaid China $7.5 billion through an IMF loan in 2023, but still owes around $18 to $24 billion. The U.S. addition of $20 billion is merely a way for Argentina to pivot from China to U.S. reliance.

In addition, the U.S. is indicating willingness to purchase U.S. dollar-denominated Argentine bonds (i.e. sovereign debt) in either the primary or secondary markets. The support would also include “standby credit” via the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) as needed. The ESF largely operates outside of congressional oversight.

The US is now simply standing in line beside the IMF when the time comes to restructure Argentina. The default risk remains valid. Confidence in the dollar must remain high. This is not charity but an option for the US to maintain dollar dominance in Latin America.

Extraordinary Interview with Javier Milei, President of Argentina

November 20, 2024 | Sundance November 20, 2024 | Sundance

Glenn Greenwald appears for an interview with Tucker Carlson on the topic of the Biden administration directly making a decision as they exit the White House to attack Russia and provoke a direct war between U.S-led NATO and Russia.

Greenwald notes the accurate context of the recent decision to provide, launch, target and direct ATACMS missiles to hit targets inside Russia. This is not the U.S. providing Ukraine with weapons for use. This is the USA using the auspices of Ukraine geography to launch missiles into Russia that can only be launched, directed and targeted by U.S-NATO members.

Ukraine does not have the targeting systems or satellites to use these longer-range ATACM missiles for strikes into Russia. Ukraine is merely the launch geography for the U.S/NATO to launch missiles directly into Russia. President Vladimir Putin specifically said he has clear eyes on what this deployment means. WATCH:

On an ancillary note, having spent three months inside Russia this summer and having the associated contacts therein, the Russian government is currently in the process of shutting down their nation in preparation for what comes next. All of the previous rules and regulations for entry visas are essentially gone. You will not read this anywhere else, but I can assure you Russia is isolating in preparation for war. This is not a good sign at all.

Having spent some time in the weeds this morning, I’m not sure the current trajectory is reversible before President Trump’s inauguration. President Trump is going to face a considerable challenge. Without doubt the Intelligence Community control agents in the Biden administration are monitoring every call and intercepting every contact that President-elect Trump might have in the next 6 weeks, in order to ensure their objectives are accomplished.

This action is coming from the people deep inside the IC and State Dept who are committed to fomenting a serious conflict with Russia and Vladimir Putin as the White House is about to change hands. We previously said to watch out for this lame duck session.

In response to previous discussion about this, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had ‘clear eyes’ on what long-range missile deployment inside Ukraine really meant. Ukraine does not have the targeting systems or satellites to use long-range missiles for strikes into Russia.

Longer-range missiles have been used by U.S-NATO inside Ukraine. The ATACMS originate from the U.S-NATO and they are deployed with the targeting of U.S-NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly stated that if such weapons were used, Russia will not pretend or ignore that this is direct provocative engagement by NATO against Russia. Putin is currently organizing affairs inside Russia prior to his response.