Tag Archives: Current Events

Mar 9 2026

February Jobs USA


Posted originally on Mar 9, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

The latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics once again highlights the persistent inconsistencies that appear when comparing government labor data with private payroll figures. According to the BLS, nonfarm payrolls fell by roughly 92,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%. Analysts had expected modest job growth, so the negative headline came as a surprise and suggests the labor market is beginning to show clearer signs of slowing.

What makes this report particularly interesting is how sharply it diverges from the private sector data released earlier in the week. The ADP National Employment Report estimated that private employers added about 63,000 jobs in February, an improvement from January’s extremely weak reading of roughly 11,000 jobs. While still far from robust growth, the ADP figures pointed to modest hiring rather than the contraction implied by the official report.

Looking deeper into the BLS data, the sector breakdown reveals that hiring was concentrated in only a handful of areas while several cyclically sensitive industries declined. Health care and social assistance continued to add jobs, along with government employment and portions of the education sector. Construction also managed small gains despite weather disruptions. However, manufacturing payrolls declined, retail employment fell, and professional and business services, which tend to weaken early in economic slowdowns, also posted losses. Leisure and hospitality hiring slowed sharply compared with the pace seen throughout 2024 and early 2025.

This gap between the two measures has been appearing more frequently in recent years and highlights the structural differences in how the data are compiled. ADP draws from actual payroll processing data covering millions of workers, whereas the BLS relies heavily on surveys and statistical adjustments, including the birth-death model used to estimate employment from new firms. These models can introduce significant volatility, and revisions months later often alter the original picture substantially.

The broader trend, however, is consistent across both reports. Job creation has slowed materially compared to the earlier post-pandemic period, and the labor market is gradually losing momentum. From a cyclical perspective, this aligns with the broader economic shift unfolding as we move deeper into the current phase of the business cycle. Employment tends to lag the economy, which means weakening payroll data often appears only after growth has already begun to cool beneath the surface.

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Dec 11 2025

October 2025 Partial US Economic Data Blackout


originally on Posted Dec 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

GDP 3

Governments never suspend economic data because things are going well. When a government stops publishing the very numbers it insists are the foundation of policy—GDP, CPI, PPI, employment—you are looking at the final stage of the collapse in confidence. The US government would be eager to publish this data despite the shutdown if the figures were optimistic.

GDP, inflation, PPI, and the jobs report are the four pillars the government uses to claim the economy is “strong” or “transitory.” Rest assured, those at the top will have access to the data. The absence of data in the public sphere tells you more than the data themselves ever could.

Governments will become more authoritarian, more secretive, and more desperate as this wave continues. Once confidence breaks, they will do anything to prevent the population from realizing the depth of the crisis they themselves created. They manipulate statistics when times are tough; they suspend them when manipulation is no longer enough.

This aligns perfectly with the Economic Confidence Model as we move toward 2026—the political panic cycle. Governments cannot maintain the illusion of competence when capital flows shift against them. By refusing to publish these numbers, they are admitting, indirectly, that the economic deterioration is accelerating faster than they can spin. They fear the headlines, the market reaction, and above all, the realization by the public that the emperor has no clothes.