Tag Archives: Current Events

Apr 6 2026

March Jobs Report – USA


Posted originally on Apr 6, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

The March 2026 employment report is being celebrated by the press as a “blowout” number, yet once again they are focusing on the headline and ignoring what is actually taking place beneath the surface. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs for the month, far exceeding expectations that were clustered around 60,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%.

The prior month was revised to a loss of 133,000 jobs, meaning what you are seeing is not acceleration but volatility. When you strip away the headline number, the first major warning sign is the collapse in labor force participation. Roughly 396,000 people exited the labor force in March alone, pushing participation below 62%, the lowest level since the pandemic era. This is precisely how governments manipulate unemployment statistics. If people stop looking for work, they are no longer counted as unemployed, so the rate declines even as the underlying economy weakens.

Then you look at wages, which rose only modestly, roughly 0.2% for the month and about 3.5% annually, marking the slowest pace in years. This is critical because it confirms what we have been warning about, this is not inflation driven by demand, this is cost-push inflation driven by war, energy, and policy. When wages stall while prices rise, that is the very definition of stagflation.

The composition of the jobs tells the same story. Healthcare accounted for roughly 76,000 of the gains, largely a rebound from strike activity, while construction and manufacturing added modest numbers. Government employment declined by about 18,000 and financial sectors also contracted, which is a red flag because those are forward-looking industries tied to capital formation.

Even more troubling is that hiring itself remains weak. The broader trend shows job growth averaging only a fraction of prior years, with some estimates suggesting as little as 15,000 to 20,000 per month over the past year. That is an economy treading water.

The Federal Reserve will likely sit on its hands, because it has no real control here. If it cuts rates, it risks fueling inflation through energy. If it raises rates, it risks accelerating the downturn. This is the trap created by sovereign debt and geopolitical mismanagement.

Mar 9 2026

February Jobs USA


Posted originally on Mar 9, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

The latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics once again highlights the persistent inconsistencies that appear when comparing government labor data with private payroll figures. According to the BLS, nonfarm payrolls fell by roughly 92,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%. Analysts had expected modest job growth, so the negative headline came as a surprise and suggests the labor market is beginning to show clearer signs of slowing.

What makes this report particularly interesting is how sharply it diverges from the private sector data released earlier in the week. The ADP National Employment Report estimated that private employers added about 63,000 jobs in February, an improvement from January’s extremely weak reading of roughly 11,000 jobs. While still far from robust growth, the ADP figures pointed to modest hiring rather than the contraction implied by the official report.

Looking deeper into the BLS data, the sector breakdown reveals that hiring was concentrated in only a handful of areas while several cyclically sensitive industries declined. Health care and social assistance continued to add jobs, along with government employment and portions of the education sector. Construction also managed small gains despite weather disruptions. However, manufacturing payrolls declined, retail employment fell, and professional and business services, which tend to weaken early in economic slowdowns, also posted losses. Leisure and hospitality hiring slowed sharply compared with the pace seen throughout 2024 and early 2025.

This gap between the two measures has been appearing more frequently in recent years and highlights the structural differences in how the data are compiled. ADP draws from actual payroll processing data covering millions of workers, whereas the BLS relies heavily on surveys and statistical adjustments, including the birth-death model used to estimate employment from new firms. These models can introduce significant volatility, and revisions months later often alter the original picture substantially.

The broader trend, however, is consistent across both reports. Job creation has slowed materially compared to the earlier post-pandemic period, and the labor market is gradually losing momentum. From a cyclical perspective, this aligns with the broader economic shift unfolding as we move deeper into the current phase of the business cycle. Employment tends to lag the economy, which means weakening payroll data often appears only after growth has already begun to cool beneath the surface.

C

Dec 11 2025

October 2025 Partial US Economic Data Blackout


originally on Posted Dec 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

GDP 3

Governments never suspend economic data because things are going well. When a government stops publishing the very numbers it insists are the foundation of policy—GDP, CPI, PPI, employment—you are looking at the final stage of the collapse in confidence. The US government would be eager to publish this data despite the shutdown if the figures were optimistic.

GDP, inflation, PPI, and the jobs report are the four pillars the government uses to claim the economy is “strong” or “transitory.” Rest assured, those at the top will have access to the data. The absence of data in the public sphere tells you more than the data themselves ever could.

Governments will become more authoritarian, more secretive, and more desperate as this wave continues. Once confidence breaks, they will do anything to prevent the population from realizing the depth of the crisis they themselves created. They manipulate statistics when times are tough; they suspend them when manipulation is no longer enough.

This aligns perfectly with the Economic Confidence Model as we move toward 2026—the political panic cycle. Governments cannot maintain the illusion of competence when capital flows shift against them. By refusing to publish these numbers, they are admitting, indirectly, that the economic deterioration is accelerating faster than they can spin. They fear the headlines, the market reaction, and above all, the realization by the public that the emperor has no clothes.