Posted originally on Jul 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
France was on the brink of its Fifth bankruptcy in 1720. France defaulted in 1558 under Henry II, following the costly Habsburg-Valois Wars (also known as the Italian Wars), the outright repudiation of debt, and currency devaluation. Then in 1648, a Debt Crisis occurred under Louis XIV (Early Reign) with the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648) and the Franco-Spanish War (1635–1659). Louis XIV suspended payments and manipulated currency. Then, in 1661, there was another financial collapse under Louis XIV, when Finance Minister Nicolas Fouquet was arrested for corruption. Jean-Baptiste Colbert later reformed finances, but debt remained high.
Then, in 1715, France fell into bankruptcy following the death of Louis XIV. The War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714) left France deeply indebted. The regency of Philippe d’Orléans implemented the Visa of 1715, a partial debt repudiation. This brings us to 1720 and the collapse of the Mississippi Bubble (John Law’s system), for which history blamed him without examining France’s chronic debt problems. John Law’s speculative financial scheme collapsed, resulting in hyperinflation of paper money and a banking crisis. The French government defaulted on its obligations.
This was followed by the 1770 Bankruptcy under Louis XV. The Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) and financial mismanagement led to another debt crisis. The Finance Minister Étienne de Silhouette and later René de Maupeou imposed austerity and partial defaults.
Then, just 19 years later, this brings us to the debt crisis that sparked the 1789 French Revolution. The Pre-Revolution Financial Crisis was when France was effectively bankrupt under Louis XVI, leading to the Estates-General and the French Revolution (1789). The revolutionary government later repudiated royal debt.
Then, 23 years later, we come to the 1812–1813 Financial Crisis under Napoleon. The Napoleonic Wars drained French finances. The government resorted to forced loans and currency debasement. Just 5 years later, we come to the 1818 Post-Napoleonic Debt Restructuring. After Waterloo (1815), France struggled with reparations and debt. The Duc de Richelieu negotiated loans to stabilize finances. It is a wonder why anyone lends to governments that always want war.
We arrive at the next Revolution in 1848 and the 1848 Financial Crisis during the Second Republic. The February Revolution led to a credit crunch. The government imposed emergency financial measures, as it was unable to meet its debts, given that this was a socialist revolution against the wealthy.
Never learning from the past, which they always seem to assume is gone, we again arrive at the 1871 Post-Franco-Prussian War Bankruptcy Threat. Here, France had to pay 5 billion francs in reparations to Germany after losing the war. The government took massive loans (e.g., Morgan Loans) to avoid default. This was also why France demanded reparations from Germany after World War I, which resulted in bringing Hitler to power in 1933.
Then there was the Great Depression. Here, France was forced to restructure again in 1936, with the Franc Devaluation and Debt Restructuring.The Great Depression weakened France’s economy. The Popular Front government devalued the franc and restructured debt.
Then there was the 2010 EU Debt Crisis, which most people look at in relation to Greece and stop there. The 2010s European Debt Crisis (Near-Default Risk) contagion affected France, which faced high deficits but avoided sovereign default. Debt-to-GDP rose sharply, but the country barely maintained its creditworthiness and is once again incurring deficits, all to wage war on Russia.
Here we go again. We will see massive sovereign defaults in Europe as they wage war on Russia at the behest of NATO and the Neocons.
🚨ARMAGEDDON ALERT: Top Computer Models Predict A "100% Chance Of Nuclear War In The Next Year" If The Insane Leadership Of The European Union Is Not Removed, Warns Respected Economist Martin Armstrong
Posted originally on Jun 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You are pessimistic about a resolution in the Iran-Israel conflict. Why is this different from Ukraine or even Vietnam?
Jake
ANSWER: This conflict between Iran and Israel is far more serious because it is Religious, not Ethnic, philosophical, or Conquest. The Ukraine conflict is ethnic. Ukrainians wrongly hate Russians because Stalin took their food and starved millions. What they REFUSE to admit was that this was retribution by Stalin’s right-hand man Kaganovich, who was from Kiev and was a Jew who was in charge of the operation that most saw as retribution for Ukrainian neo-Nazis who were slaughtering Jews.
There are four primary distinctions between war and its underlying causes. I will address this in a report on the 2025 Cycle of War, many have asked for an update. I will address how each can be resolved and what history teaches us. Wars unfold for different reasons internationally, whereas civil wars, more often than not, unfold because of unfair and oppressive taxation that favors one group over another.
There is also a strong correlation between migrations and civil war, as well as disease. Many plagues have followed invasions by the Mongols, bringing the Black Plague to Europe. Alternatively, returning Roman soldiers from waging war on Persia brought the Antonine Plague, which even claimed the life of Emperor Lucius Verus. Here is his coin celebrating his victory over Parthia (Persia).
The Plague of Cyprian (249-262 AD) most likely originated in Ethiopia. Evidence strongly suggests it was brought into the Roman Empire via troops returning from campaigns on the eastern frontiers, once again involving Persia. It was probably the war against the Sassanid Persians or conflicts in the region. Here is a coin of Trebonianus Gallus (251-253AD) appealing to Apollo Salvtari, who they hoped would protect society. Descriptions by St. Cyprian (Bishop of Carthage) suggest symptoms consistent with a viral hemorrhagic fever (like Ebola or a filovirus) or possibly a severe form of influenza or typhus. Some scholars also propose a re-emergence or mutated form of smallpox or measles. The exact pathogen remains uncertain.
Bishop Cyprian of Carthage, whom the plague is named after, and Dionysius of Alexandria) report that bodies were being piled in the streets. There was widespread fear and social disruption. The worst was the significant depopulation of cities and countryside, with an estimated loss of between 10% and 20% of the entire population—the impact on the Roman army and government function was profound. Even the emperor Hostilian died from this plague.
This catastrophic pandemic hit during the tumultuous Crisis of the Third Century. This caused massive mortality, further crippled the economy and military, fueled social unrest, and contributed to the empire’s near-collapse. It coincided with barbarian invasions and political instability.
The Europeans who invaded America brought diseases, and we cannot pinpoint a single exact percentage of the Indian population that died from disease. However, the overwhelming consensus among historians, anthropologists, and epidemiologists is that introduced European diseases killed somewhere between 80% and 95% of the Indigenous population of the Americas within roughly a century to a century and a half after contact. This represents a loss of tens of millions of lives and constitutes one of the most profound demographic disasters ever recorded. It fundamentally reshaped the societies, cultures, and landscapes of the entire hemisphere. (Sources: Alfred W. Crosby Jr. The Columbian Exchange; Noble David Cook Born to Die; Charles C. Mann *1491*; William M. Denevan The Native Population of the Americas in 1492)
The returning soldiers from World War I also brought back the Spanish Flu. In summary, roughly 675,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu, representing about 0.65% of the population at the time, with the majority of deaths occurring during the final stages of WWI and the immediate months following the Armistice. Again, just
Posted originally on Jun 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Iran has been the target for decades. Biden, Harris, and Clinton—all the Democrats have said that they would attack Iran if given the opportunity. It appears that Donald Trump is attempting to mitigate a potentially irresolvable situation. As he bluntly told reporters: We basically — we have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f‑‑‑ they’re doing.”
A portion of the nation believes Trump acted like a dictator by attacking Iran without Congressional approval. I explained how former President Barack Obama decimated the War Powers Resolution Act when he decided Libya was overdue for a regime change. The War Powers Act, or War Powers Resolution of 1973, grants the POTUS the ability to send American troops into battle if Congress receives a 48-hour notice. The stipulation here is that troops cannot remain in battle for over 60 days unless Congress authorizes a declaration of war. Congress could also remove US forces at any time by passing a resolution.
Libya is one of seven nations that Obama bombed without Congressional approval, yet no one remembers him as a wartime president, as the United States was not technically at war. Over 26,000 bombs were deployed across 7 nations under his command in 2016 alone. Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Pakistan were attacked without a single vote. Donald Trump’s recent orders saw 36 bombs deployed in Iran.
The majority of those bombings happened in Syria, Libya, and Iraq under the premise of targeting extremist groups like ISIS. Drone strikes were carried out across Somalia, Yemen, and Pakistan as the Obama Administration accused those nations of hosting al-Qaeda affiliated groups. Coincidentally, USAID was also providing funding to those groups.
The 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) was initially implemented to hunt down the Taliban and al-Qaeda after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Obama broadened his interpretation of the AUMF and incorporated newly formed militant groups that were allegedly expanding across the entire Middle East. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism believes there were up to 1,100 civilian casualties in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. Thousands of civilians died in Syria and Iraq but the death toll was never calculated. At least 100 innocent people died in the 2016 attacks in Afghanistan alone.
The government will always augment the law for their personal agenda. The War Powers Resolution was ignored and the AUMF was altered. Congress was, however, successful in preventing Obama from putting US troops on the ground and fighting a full-scale war. In 2013, Obama sought congressional approval for military action in Syria but was denied. Obama again attempted to deploy troops in 2015 but was denied. Congress has to redraft the AUMF to specifically prevent Obama from deploying troops in the Middle East. “The authorization… does not authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces on the ground in Syria for the purpose of combat operations.” Obama attempted to redraft the AUMF on his own by insisting he would prohibit “enduring offensive ground combat operations” or long-term deployment of troops. He was met with bipartisan disapproval as both sides believed he was attempting to drag the United States into another unnecessary war.
The United States should not be involved in any of these battles, but here we are. Those living in fear that Donald Trump is a dictator fail to recognize that past leadership had every intention of sending American men and women into battle unilaterally without a single vote cast.
Posted originally on May 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Hi Marty:
Long time no see, hope you’re doing well. I’m forwarding a short article to you. The one virologist who’s been right about Covid from the get go is Geert Vanden Bossche. He was world renowned until he went against the narrative. For over a year he’s been predicting a highly lethal Covid variant that would attack highly vaccinated countries. I read at Zerohedge last week that they call this strain “razor blade throat”. Maybe this ties in with your disease cycle in 2026. Looking forward to seeing you in the fall.
Atb,
Chris
REPLY: In all the studies I have run through the computer, no matter how I rephrase the inquiry, it always returns the same answer – Migration & War = Deadly Disease Cycle. I have input all the major plagues into the computer database from ancient times. The last “plague” that we were all taught in history class was the famous Spanish Flu of WWI: A Perfect Storm. WWI directly facilitated the virus’s global spread, intensity, and lethality. An estimated 50-100 million people died from the Spanish Flu – far more than the roughly 20 million military and civilian deaths from WWI itself.
A simple correlation of wars and migrations to disease demonstrates beyond opinion that these events have always been a major killer in wars (e.g., more soldiers died from disease than battle in many conflicts prior to the 20th century). Recent conflicts (e.g., Syrian Civil War, Yemeni Civil War) have seen the collapse of healthcare systems and the resurgence of diseases like cholera, polio, and measles. War is a powerful engine for disease spread. WWI provided the specific conditions – massive global troop movements, unprecedented crowding, malnutrition, shattered healthcare, and censorship – that turned the 1918 influenza virus into the deadliest pandemic in modern history. The connection between war and infectious disease is undeniable and devastating.
Emperor Lucius Verus’s campaign in the East, specifically against the Parthian Empire, for which this coin celebrated his victory, was directly linked to bringing the Antonine Plague (also known as the Plague of Galen) back to the Roman Empire around 165-166 CE.
Ancient historians like Cassius Dio and Ammianus Marcellinus specifically state that the plague broke out during the siege of the Mesopotamian city of Seleucia (near modern Baghdad, Iraq) in late 165 or early 166 CE. The plague rapidly infected the Roman legions. When Verus and his victorious army returned to the Roman Empire in 166 CE, they brought the plague with them.
The plague spread like wildfire throughout the Roman provinces and reached Rome itself. It raged for years (possibly decades, with recurrences), becoming one of the deadliest pandemics in antiquity. Estimates suggest it killed millions, including a significant portion of the Roman army and population. It’s widely believed to have contributed to the weakening of the Empire during the reign of Marcus Aurelius (who also eventually died from it in 180 CE).
Creating WWIII on top of this gain-of-function COVID-19 disease, will be the devastating impact that our computer is projecting heading into 2029, which will probably be Phase I, with Phase II heading into 2032, but the final Phase will
COVID-19 does not appear to be an intentional biological weapon. It was most likely a gain-of-function creation that leaked out. Back in 1546, De Contagione (treatise on syphilis) was written more than 300 years before the germ theory of disease emerged. In that work, Girolamo Fracastoro wrote: “There will come yet other new and unusual ailments in the course of time. And this disease will pass away, but later it will be born again and be seen by our descendants.”
Not only is 2032 the 6th Wave of 51.6-year groups, totaling 309.6 years, but there is also a fractal of 6 waves of 309.6 years, which encompasses 1857.6-year groups. At the end of the last 309.6-year wave in 1722.4, there was also the Great Plague of Marseille (1720-1722), which was the single most devastating plague event during this timeframe. There was also the famous Smallpox, which was a constant, major killer, with the Boston Epidemic (1721-1722) being a historically significant event due to the inoculation controversy, similar to how we now have the vaccinated being more vulnerable as we advance.
The period 1700-1725 was dominated by the Great Northern War and the War of the Spanish Succession. These were massive, multi-theater conflicts involving most of the major European powers and their colonies. They fundamentally altered the European balance of power, marking the dramatic rise of Russia under Peter the Great and Great Britain as major powers, while significantly weakening Sweden and exhausting France. Russia ultimately won that attempt to conquer it, marking the end of the 309.6-year wave. Typhus & “Camp Fever” were the diseases that were spread by lice in crowded, unsanitary conditions that were major killers in armies and among displaced populations during the frequent wars of the period, like the Great Northern War (1700-1721) and the later War of the Austrian Succession (1740-1748).
Going back to the previous wave that peaked at 1413.76, the population saw a virtual decline of 50% due to the Black Plague, also spread by war following the Mongol invasion of Crimea. They catapulted dead bodies into the Italian fort, and they fled, taking the plague back to Europe. Yes, I have said there remains the risk of a 50% decline in population as the Sixth Wave of the Economic Confidence Model concludes. This is historically standard. This is traditionally the combination of war and disease. The Black Plague or Death was the half-way point in this 1857.6 year wave.
Trump is being played like a fiddle. I do not know who in his camp is feeding him the Neocon agenda. I am screaming as loud as I can for the USA to stay out and let Europe exterminate itself and the EU. It will not win, and we have to stand back and let it happen. If we do not, China and Russia will join forces because they know this is NOT a war with Ukraine, they are an expendable proxy of NATO, as are Poland and Romania. This war will exacerbate the disease cycle, as it has always done throughout history.
This gain-of-function disease, COVID-19, may be the new Black Plague. I believe that those who will be the most vulnerable will be those who have been vaccinated. That’s just my opinion – not the computer. The computer has not identified the actual disease agent. Our politicians are IGNORANT of history, and if they ever bothered to look, disease ALWAYS spreads with migration. Just open a history book, and they might read that overwhelmingly, the historical consensus is that disease was the primary killer of Indigenous peoples in the Americas following European contact, responsible for a vastly greater number of deaths than warfare. Pre-contact population estimates for the Americas range widely (40-100+ million), but post-contact decline was catastrophic. Scholars generally agree that 80-95% of the Indigenous population died within the first 100-150 years after sustained European contact due to disease. This represents one of the most devastating demographic catastrophes in human history due to migration, and Europeans brought diseases unfamiliar to the American Indigenous population.
———- Forwarded message ——— From: geert vanden bossche from geert’s Substack <gvdb@substack.com> Date: Thu, May 29, 2025 at 7:26 AM Subject: Nobody seeing the drama unfolding right before our eyes?
I’m sure at least some of you have become aware of new COVID-19 (C-19) outbreaks in several Asian countries (Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Japan).
Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for moreNobody seeing the drama unfolding right before our eyes?geert vanden bosscheMay 29READ IN APPI’m sure at least some of you have become aware of new COVID-19 (C-19) outbreaks in several Asian countries (Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Japan). But even in Australia, NB. 1.8.1 is now spreading, and it has already made landfall in the US as well. These outbreaks are continuing to rise rapidly and at least Taiwan has been reporting a sustained increase in severe and fatal cases too.While critics are rightfully concerned about the many direct side effects of the C-19 vaccines, few are aware of the threat posed by the large-scale and out-of-control gain-of-function experiment that has been triggered by irrational human intervention in highly C-19 vaccinated populations. After psychotic infection-prevention measures and insane C-19 mass vaccination drove viral escape from anti-SARS-CoV-2 (SC-2) immunity, making the virus more infectious, ongoing vaccine breakthrough infections now appear to be evolving in a way that facilitates immune deficiency against SC-2 altogether, thereby facilitating increased viral virulence of newly emerging, highly transmissible SC-2 lineages. As I always said: This is not going to have a happy ending (in highly C-19 vaccinated populations).Thanks for reading geert’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Pledge your supportgeert’s Substack is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell geert’s Substack that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won’t be charged unless they enable payments.Pledge your support
Posted originally on May 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
German troops have been permanently deployed for the first time since World War II. A brigade of 4,800 German soldiers is now positioned in Lithuania on NATO’s eastern flank. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is eager to wage war on Russia, stating, “The security of our Baltic allies is also our security.”
“Anyone who threatens an ally must know that the entire alliance will jointly defend every inch of NATO territory,” Merz said. The 45 Armored Brigade, headquartered in Rudninkai, will also include hundreds of civilian staff members and is expected to operate at full capacity by the end of 2027 with over 5,000 soldiers. Lithuania announced earlier this month that it is increasing its military spending to 6% of GDP, or approximately $1.2 billion.
Germany firmly believes it has unlimited funds to spend on the war. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul announced that Germany will spend 5% of its GDP on NATO, claiming the nation was offering “the five percent that President Trump demanded.” Merz, who served in the Bundeswehr, declared that “the government will in the future provide all the financing the Bundeswehr needs to become the strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Germany has already allocated a billion to the war in Ukraine. Two-thirds of the Bundestag Parliament voted to remove military spending from the Constitutional debt brake. The AfD opposed this plan, as did their opposite, Linke. The nation had implemented strict spending guidelines in its Constitution. They have been fearful of accumulating debt and previously had a fixed debt brake at 0.35% of GDP. Now, any amount over 1% of GDP will not face a borrowing cap. Therefore, Germany can now spend any amount on defense with no concern for the future.
History repeats because the desires of man never change. Unfortunately ,the models indicate that the third time will NOT be a charm.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 