Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted Jun 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; I watched the National Geographic special called Genius on the life of Einstein. I could not help but see the parallel with you from fighting the establishment, going head to head with the academics, and how the FBI tried to trump up charges against him to send him to prison. He also said the same thing you do, curiosity was your driving force. That’s what you said on stage in Hong Kong when the only question that gave you pause was what to advise the youth. You said always challenge what is being taught.
Did you pick up where Einstein left off? Your reversals are mindboggling and clearly demonstrate that there is a hidden order behind everything. Einstein’s lifelong quest was for the unified theory. Did you discover it?
Is that the key to enlightenment? Curiosity?
Sorry for the deep questions, but they are fascinating.
See you in Orlando also
ANSWER: I did not see the whole series Genius. I hope to buy it. I caught the end on recommendations of friends. Yes your question is deep, yet interesting. Einstein and myself overlap only where it involves TIME. Einstein’s quest to reach the unified theory is somewhat different, yet related.
The Grand Unified Theory (GUT) is a model in particle physics whereby the Standard Model, which defines the electromagnetic, weak, and strong forces, are merged into one single force. The laws in particle physics do not match the Standard Model. This has been the quest to find the single answer that unified all. However, unifying gravity with the other three interactions would provide what is called the “Theory of Everything” (TOE), rather than a GUT which is an intermediate step towards a TOE.
Consequently, Einstein’s theory of gravity, called general relativity, can explain everything from the movements of planets to the physics of black holes. However, it simply doesn’t seem to apply on the scale of the particles that make up atoms. To predict how particles will behave, we need the theory of quantum mechanics. Quantum mechanics explains the way particles function, but it simply doesn’t apply on any scale larger than an atom. The elusive solution for combining the two theories is the Grand Unified Theory (GUT).
Not to leave everyone behind here, Gravitational Time Dilation is the phenomenon that the further you move away from gravity the faster time passes. This was predicted by Albert Einstein originally in his Theory of Relativity and it has since been confirmed by tests of general relativity. Therefore, TIME is not a constant. This is what Einstein meant by saying “reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.”
Interesting that you ask if I have picked up where Einstein ended. Perhaps. But it was a different direction – just TIME. My curiosity has been in the field of TIME. I have explored how TIME transcends everything so it does not matter what one generation does for they cannot escape the Time Dilation (cycle of time). In other words, the business cycle is continuous regardless of the passing of one generation to the next because it is produce by the synergy of the collective whole while individually we possess the power to join the mob or leave it. TIME expands and contracts and it is all determined by the frequency of each object being observed. I keep my Dali clock to remind me that TIME is not constant, but relative.
The business cycle exists as a pulse for centuries on a consistent foundation being the product of human nature interacting with the universe of influences from nature to man-made. It does not matter the government or type of government. The clock keeps ticking. Waves of innovation and dark ages come and go and each is dependent upon the other. This is the pendulum I speak of. There is night and day, male and female, God and the Devil. There must be two opposites to make the universe function. The system requires opposites to move; never just one side.
Electricity can be transmitted distances ONLY by adding a cycle (Alternating Current) whereby without a cycle, DC (Direct Current) quickly dissipates due to the resistance of the medium through which it is trying to pass. The cycle is the key to using electricity. We need the wave motion between two extremes to perpetuate our existence. It cannot be sunny and bright every single day with no rain and still survive. The Earth turns to an ice age and then reverses with global warming as a natural cycle set in motion by the beat of the Sun. If the Earth ever became totally covered in snow and ice, it would fall into the White Earth effect and die reflecting sunlight unable to ever warm back again.
This is what brought me to my question. How does energy move be it natural sun light or the boom and bust of an economy? My conclusion was straight forward: Energy cannot move in a linear fashion. It must move through a medium and in doing so it travels in waves. Hence, cyclical analysis is really the study of TIME variations based upon the medium through which energy must pass. This is where I overlap with Einstein albeit we are looking at two distinctly different end results.
Einstein’s famous formula establishes the mass–energy equivalence, which states that anything having mass has an equivalent amount of energy and vice versa. Therefore, this formula states that the equivalent energy (E) can be calculated as the mass (m) multiplied by the speed of light (c = about 3×108 m/s) squared. Consequently, anything having energy exhibits a corresponding mass “m” given by its energy “E” divided by the speed of light squared “c²”. Since the speed of light is a very large number in everyday units, the formula implies that even an everyday object at rest has a very large amount of energy intrinsically within it even with a modest amount of mass (i.e. atomic bombs).
Einstein’s famous equation, E = mc², teaches us that matter and energy are interchangeable, merely different forms of the same thing. We have a giant example of that in our sky we call the Sun, which the global warming people totally ignore. The Sun is powered by the conversion of mass to energy.
I have explored the existence of an energy force within society that is behind the business cycle. I can measure the amount of energy within the collective movement of society to ascertain over-bought and over-sold conditions that cause the business cycle to reverse course. I can create models and use math to measure something you cannot see or touch yet we experience the effects. Hence, I can measure something that is invisible indirectly through its effect.
Consequently, I have expanded the question asked by Einstein. He sought the unification as a predictive end result. I have sought not the result, but HOW does energy move and in what manner for I can start from the result and work backwards. Light moves in particles, but also in a wave form. Einstein saw the dual nature of light and that it was both a particle and a wave, which has been proven providing the foundation for understanding electromagnetics and quantum mechanics. Einstein believed light is a particle (photon) and the flow of photons takes the shape of a wave. That is where my curiosity begins and this is where we overlap.
I have concerned my research with how waves move through time-space for this is the core mechanism that unified everything. This is how energy moves at the very essence of it all regardless of the scale (quantum mechanics v Standard Model). Understanding this critical nature is the key to everything TOE. Therefore, the true implication of what Einstein said that “reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one,” to me opens the door to TOE. It is how energy moves that is the TOE.
A sidewinding snake illustrates how moving side to side in a cyclical wave formation moves in a straight line in a linear sense as light move ahead but also in waves. We have the illusion of moving forward in a linear fashion, yet it moves sideways to achieve movement lacking legs. Light moves in waves yet it is composed of particles (photons) that appears to be moving in a straight line or a beam.
Now, to me, the Theory of Everything (TOE) begins right there. It is HOW energy moves regardless of the medium or TIME since TIME itself is not constant but it too moves in waves. We are trapped in our reality, which creates the linear illusion of TIME. We cannot see beyond this reality, yet we can measure how TIME moves in waves. This is the ultimate Paradox of Existence.
I began my study of cycles at the beach counting the waves and noticing that each wave was not the same and that there was a rhythm to the waves and when the big wave would appear and start to break further out from the shore. You will see this video I took which illustrates that the energy moving through the water is cyclical in amplitude. Note that some waves break further out from the shore and most break at the shore. This is because the wave which breaks further from shore is caused by a greater amplitude in the energy passing through the medium (water).
It is just an illusion that it is the water which is moving. In fact, the water remains still and it offers the medium through which the energy passes. This can be illustrated by placing a ball on the surface of water and you will see it remains in place even though energy waves pass. This proves that energy moves through the medium and does not cause the medium to move with the energy. Electricity passes through the medium (wire) but it does not cause the copper to move within the wire as the electricity passes.
Consequently, the 51.6 year Economic Confidence Model is composed of 6 8.6-year wave building in amplitude creating the big wave at the end. Hence, not every wave is the same and there is a difference between turning points (waves) and the big wave (volatility/panic). Perhaps now you can see why the ECM builds in intensity until it culminates in the big wave. There is order to the universe if you just look with your eyes and mind open.
Remember, if you change the frequency, you produce a different effect. This is a rule never to forget.
For you see, in Quantum Mechanics, it is possible to forecast where a particle will appear known as the Wave Function Ψ(x,t) that is effectively cyclical analysis. In essence, this is the proof that everything is cyclical in nature right down to the movement of particles. Consequently, my goal has been to forecast outside of Quantum Mechanics irrespective of gravity.
Hence the first question became, what is the medium through which energy passes around us? It was this understanding that energy required a medium to move at all that led to the theory of Aether (ether) in physics. This was the proposed existence of a medium that filled a space with a substance or field that allowed the transmission of electromagnetic or gravitational forces. The assumption was there had to be a medium even though we could not see it, measure it, feel it or taste it. Since the development of Einstein’s special relativity, theories using a substantial aether fell out of use in modern physics, and were replaced by more abstract models.
Einstein himself said: “We may say that according to the general theory of relativity space is endowed with physical qualities; in this sense, therefore, there exists an aether. According to the general theory of relativity space without aether is unthinkable” Since that time, aether theories have been discredited because there has been no evidence to prove its existence. Instead, quantum mechanics has filled the void.
Dark Matter is nothing at all like the aether. It’s something that behaves exactly like an ordinary particle of matter, but it is “dark” because it lacks an electric charge or strong interaction with known matter particles. Particle physicists have probably more than a billion different candidates for Dark Matter. The idea of Dark Matter was really forced upon everyone only after decades of observations of galaxies and clusters convinced people that regular matter simply wasn’t enough. Once it became clear that indeed something had to exist as a medium, the idea was accepted.
Dark Energy is the second component conceptually closer to the original idea of aether, which was not a particle, but a smooth component that fills space. Unlike the aether, Dark Energy looks the same no matter how you move through it and it is again “dark” because it has nothing to do with electromagnetic radiation. Dark Energy was also forced upon scientists by observations. In 1998, the discovery that the universe is accelerating was a shock to theoretical physicists who knew it was possible in principle, but almost nobody actually believed it.
Perhaps Dark Energy emerges as a synergy resulting from the behavior on scales smaller than atoms in the realm of Quantum Mechanics, that can produce energy and matter that appears out of nothingness, although only for the tiniest fraction of an instant. The constant brief appearance and disappearance of matter could be giving energy to otherwise what we thought was empty space in the Universe.
Consequently, Dark Energy creates a new fundamental force within the Universe where scientific theories allow for the possibility of such forces. The force might even be temporary, and some believe it is causing the universe to accelerate for some billions of years before it weakens and essentially disappears.
There is still much we don’t know about the medium Dark Matter and Dark Energy because science has not yet determined exactly what they are and their detection is still not DIRECT, but INDIRECT by their effects on gravitational fields in the universe. Make no mistake, they are by no means random or arbitrary any more than market behavior. Both Dark Matter and Dark Energy make very specific predictions for what those gravitational effects should be, which astronomers have tested and verified. Hence, despite being unable to measure Dark Matter and Dark Energy directly, their exist can be verified by indirect observation through their impact and effect.
Energy requires a medium through which it can travel. In economics, we are the medium – human emotion and this is why the majority must always be wrong. We have our own cycle of progress so we begin by purchasing the high and selling the low. If we learn from our mistakes, we progress in our personal cycle so we then sell the high to the new-comer and buy the low when he throws in the towel.
Therefore, like Dark Matter and Dark Energy, the business cycle can be confirmed by measuring its effects even though you cannot see it, touch it, or taste it. The business cycle is the wave form but then there is a separate component within the wave composed of a cycle within a cycle of energy in markets we call volatility. There are two primary components to a wave – the particles and the wave so to speak in light terms. Then there is the Schema Frequency interjecting TIME. What constitutes the business cycle is the entire global economy. You cannot look at just one country and forecast the future. Everything is connected. It was World War I and II that shifted the capital flows to the USA. The United States was bankrupt in 1896 when J.P. Morgan lent it $100 million in gold. Without those wars, the United States would still be mostly agrarian.
Now, the proof of the importance of cycles is the blunt reality that everything in the universe has its own inherent frequency. Physics suggests that a sound wave can break glass. Some have said some opera singers with a very strong voice have broken glass. In reality, every piece of glass has a natural resonant frequency—the speed at which it will vibrate if bumped or otherwise disturbed by some stimulus, such as a sound wave—as does every other material on Earth. If you match that frequency, you can shatter the object. Sonic and ultrasonic weapons (USW) exists. Sonic weapons can injure, incapacitate, or even kill an opponent. Some sonic weapons are currently under research and development by the military as the police.
Some sonic waves can repel crowds without killing them. Cycles are extremely powerful if you understand wave motion. There are electromagnetic rail guns using just electricity that will shoot a bullet (projectile) at a speed of Mach 7 (seven times the speed of sound) for 100 miles. The next war will be much different from what anyone imagines. It is not all just nukes.
My criticism of academics is simply this. They promote stagnation and demean both imagination and curiosity. For your see, our knowledge is confined by the limitation of all we now know and understand. All progress takes place ONLY from those who embrace curiosity and imagination thinking out of the box (reality) for here there is no limitation whatsoever since it encompass the entire universe and all there ever could possibly exist. Curiosity may have killed the cat, but what a boring life it would be if there were no risks and no means to learn from our mistakes.