La Palma Volcano & 6th Wave

Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Sep 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, if I understood your forecasts on volcanos, you said this would increase post-2020 but the big one was not until after 2032. Is this all hype about La Palma Volcano?


REPLY: There is normally a rise in volcanic activity with solar minimum. There is a plain correlation with that. I have written about how Napoleon was defeated by a Volcanic Winter. This eruption of La Palma Volcano seems to be on target. There is roughly a 22-year cycle to that particular volcano.

The known eruptions have been 2021 (Sep – ongoing), 1971, 1949, 1712, 1677-1678, 1646, and 1585. This volcano conforms to the 8.6-year frequency. It has been 51.6 years from 1871 to 2021 so it is on target. This one can build bigger. There is a risk it could extend into 2022 since this is the 6th wave from 1712.

There are a number of volcanos on the watch list right now. The main threat of volcanos is creating volcanic winters.

How much Vitamin D should we be taking?

The discussion is based on world wide medical studies> Its a must watch if you’re interested in your health.

There is No Danger from Carbon Dioxide Causing a Global Catastrophe!

This ad was in the Wednesday July 28, 2021 Washington Times Newspaper

The properties of carbon dioxide have been mischaracterized and distorted by leftist politicians, professors, and even scientists who are influenced by left-leaning institutions that provide funds for research. Be aware of reporting from your favorite conservative sources to see if they use this information to set the record straight. Essentially, the information contained in the attachment effectively contradicts with accurate scientific facts the long-running media narrative about humans causing climate change with the use of fossil fuels which add carbon dioxide to Earth’s atmosphere. The information that you will see is self-explanatory and will likely make it more difficult for the human-caused climate change narrative to persist.

Pass this on to your friends …

Sam Horowitz

The Guardian Outlines “Project Pegasus” an Expose’ into Multiple Governments Using Spyware Created by An Israeli Surveillance Company Called NSO

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2021 | Sundance | 124 Comments

In the United States we have the National Security Agency (NSA). The NSA collects all available metadata on almost all electronic devices worldwide that can be reached. Access to that database underpins the “Fourth Branch of Government,” the most powerful branch, the U.S. Intelligence Branch.

In addition to a global scraping of metadata, the NSA also collects the domestic private information of all Americans.  This was the essential background story that NSA Contractor Edward Snowden broke several years ago.   We now know this to be an accepted fact.

The United States internal political debate shifted from ‘should they do this’ to ‘how can we manage the people who do this‘?

The results over the last ten years of trying to manage the exploitation of this database have been a case study in failure.

Year after year, the NSA admits their control over the database is structurally flawed, essentially non-existent.  The fourth amendment protections of U.S. citizens have been erased, and now even U.S. government contractors are using the NSA database to monitor whoever and whatever they want.  Again, I repeat: ‘The Fourth Branch of government is a public-private partnership”.

However, beyond domestic exploitation, the NSA database is presumably only used by, accessed by and available to, the foreign allies that make up the “Five Eyes” partners. The U.S., U.K, Australia, Canada and New Zealand make up the allies within the Five Eyes intelligence apparatus. These allies have access to the same NSA database as U.S. operatives.

Putting aside how the NSA database is exploited inside the U.S. for a moment – if you are a government outside the Five Eyes system; and you wanted to spy on your own citizens and political enemies the way the NSA conducts surveillance on its own citizens; you would need some other access point to spy on your opposition. That’s where an Israeli company called NSO comes into the picture.  {Guardian Report}

NSO creates tech software, spyware, that allows governments to spy on cell phones.

As the Guardian notes, [NSO] “sells surveillance technology to governments worldwide. Its flagship product is Pegasus, spying software – or spyware – that targets iPhones and Android devices. Once a phone is infected, a Pegasus operator can secretly extract chats, photos, emails and location data, or activate microphones and cameras without a user knowing.”

Due to the nature of the product they sell, NSO works with the Israeli government to vet the purchaser of the spyware they sell.

The Pegasus’ cell phone surveillance technology is a tool for governments who cannot build out the technology on their own, and they do not have access to the NSA database. Pegasus is marketed as an alternative to data collection that allows the government agency to specifically target individual cell phones and spy on what that phone is doing.

Returning to the Guardian report, “Claudio Guarnieri, who runs Amnesty International’s Security Lab, said once a phone was infected with Pegasus, a client of NSO could in effect take control of a phone, enabling them to extract a person’s messages, calls, photos and emails, secretly activate cameras or microphones, and read the contents of encrypted messaging apps such as WhatsApp, Telegram and Signal.”

The Guardian, and a group of allied leftists in media, has been granted access to a leaked massive batch of 50,000 phone numbers that the Pegasus software was operating in.  [Likely some Bradley Manning type leftist in the Israeli government leaked the information (my guess)]  As a result, the media are going through the phone numbers to determine: (1) who was targeted; and (2) by whom?  Many journalists are on the list [READ FULL ARTICLE].

As you read the article keep something in mind.  The leftists doing the investigation, ie. “The Pegasus Project”, are quick to point out foreign governments they oppose who purchased the Pegasus software (Poland, Hungary, Mexico etc).  The spin from the Guardian is that brutal governments are using the Pegasus spyware to monitor, track and even target for assassination enemies and journalists; as well as just monitor their domestic political opposition.

What the Pegasus group is claiming might actually be correct and true; however, I find myself shrugging at the incredulity they attempt to drum-up while simultaneously ignoring the fact the United States Government, via the NSA, has been doing this for years and it doesn’t seem like anyone cares.

President Trump was under almost every kind of intelligence surveillance including exploitation of the NSA database for years, even during his term in office.  The Guardian didn’t care and all the leftists on the Pegasus Project didn’t flinch an inch….

The U.S, U.K, Australia, New Zealand and Canada do it all the time.  However, as soon as Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), start doing it…. well, hell, the leftist media light their hair on fire.

Hypocrisy much?

Oh, wait, that’s right…. ‘Ideology much’.

Lost City Discovered & a Tablet That Changes History

Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted Jul 16, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Perhaps it is appropriate that by the end of this month we will have another Indiana Jones movie – the fifth and probably the last. Archaeologists have discovered a 3,000-year-old lost city that some have thought was just legend. This is the largest city ever discovered called “The Rise of Aten,” which was unearthed by a team of archeologists led by Zahi Hawass under the sand on the western bank of Luxor, about 300 miles south of Cairo. I made that trip to Luxor and trekked through the Valley of the Kings across the river. It was about 125 degrees that day, and while a group all fly down to Luxor from Cairo. I was the only one who left the hotel to venture to the tombs. I walked down into the tomb of King Tut, and it was amazing. Once inside, it was cool. So I appreciate how grueling it is to dig in the sand in search of something in such heat.

The archaeologists first excavated the site in September 2020 in an attempt to search for King Tut’s mortuary temple. They soon uncovered mud brick formations that turned out to be a large city dating to the golden age of pharaohs 3,000 years ago. The preservation was incredible. Not only were the walls almost complete, but there were rooms filled with tools of daily life.

The city was founded by King Amenhotep III, the ninth king of the 18th dynasty who ruled from 1391 to 1353 BC. The city was active during the king’s co-regency with his son, Amenhotep IV, who changed his name to  Akhenaten, meaning devoted to the sun. Akhenaten abandoned his name, but also his religion, and his capital in Thebes (modern Luxor). Akhenaten built the short-lived city of Akhetaten, where he ruled alongside his wife, Nefertiti (her bust survives in the Berlin Museum), and worshipped the sun.

After his death, his young son Tutankhamun became ruler of Egypt and turned his back on his father’s controversial legacy. It has been a mystery why Akhenaten abandon Thebes, which had been the capital of ancient Egypt for more than 150 years. Climate change was starting at this time, and about 100 years later, we have the invasion of the Sea Peoples driven by the cold weather in the north. But this seems to be some sort of religious upheaval.

Then there is Dr. Daniel Mansfield and his team at the University of New South Wales in Australia. They have just made an incredible discovery while translating a 3,700-year-old Babylonian tablet. What they discovered was that the Babylonians were doing trigonometry long before the Greeks. Most historians have always credited the Greeks with creating the study of triangles’ sides and angles. This tablet presents indisputable proof that the Babylonians were using the technique 1,500 years before the Greeks.

Summerian Debt Cancellation

Consequently, the debt cancellation practice began in Mesopotamia and can be traced back to 2400 BC, extending into 1400 BC. The noted historian on this subject, Michael Hudson, I believe is absolutely correct when he states that general debt cancellation was one of the principal characteristics of Bronze Age societies in Mesopotamia. There were numerous debt cancellations in the Mesopotamian cities that used the words for these debt forgiveness decrees or cancellations such as amargi in Lagash (Sumer), nig-sisa in Ur, andurarum in Ashur, misharum in Babylon, shudutu in Nuzi.

(See: Michael Hudson’s Debt Cancellations)

Debt Foregiveness

People have often asked about the Jewish practice of debt forgiveness. That too has been proven to have preexisted and dates back even before Babylon. Debt cancellation or forgiveness actually was a tradition that began under the Sumerian rule in Mesopotamia. The Jewish tradition appears to have been adopted by the Sumerians. Do not forget that Abraham came from the Sumerian city of Ur, located in southern Iraq today. Therefore, he would have grown up with that tradition. It appears that so much knowledge existed from the time of the Sumerians, which has not been fully credited nor explored.

There is so much knowledge of cycles, the planets, and comets that existed long before the Greeks. This Babylonian tablet recorded Haley’s Comet. It was the Babylonians who embarked on a major correlation study plotting everything against everything else and came up with Astrology.

Additionally, the latest issue concerns material that arises on the black market rather than from an archaeological dig. For example, during the first Gulf War in Iraq, the bombings uncovered a city previously unknown. The archives of all the text appeared on the black market. Academics boycott such things rather than try to save them. Private people use private funds for research and treat the subject as if it were a Communistic state where only they should have such cache to play with. This is something I seriously disagree with, for there are never public funds available for such projects.

In this particular case, thousands of tablets were on the black market. I bid to get the entire collection; I do not recall what my bid was, but it was many millions of dollars. There was a Norwegian collector of manuscripts, Martin Schoyen, whose collection contains over 13,000 documents. I met Martin in Zurich for dinner. Since he was a specialist in documents, we reached an agreement that my interest was economic. Martin even had an original Magna Carta. So the deal we struck was that I could use the economic text in return for bowing out of the bidding.


What made this find so valuable was that it contained a legal code predating Hammurabi, which academics teach was the first legal code. Here we have the Legal Code of (ca. 2100 BC), which is the oldest known written law code that predates Hammurabi’s law code by about 300 years. Martin Schøyen provided the translation. Schoyen’s private efforts have contributed greatly to our knowledge base as government funding for translation lacks the funds to save material on the black market. When the Legal Code of Hammurabi (ca. 1792-1750 BC) was first discovered in 1901, his laws were heralded as the earliest known examples. Subsequent to that discovery, older collections of legal codes have been unearthed. There are even older Babylonian copies of the Legal Code of Ur-Nammu (ca. 1900-1700 BC).

When I say we have THE largest database known to humankind, I am not exaggerating. You cannot create models if you lack the data to input them. How can you forecast a debt crisis or list the possible outcomes without understanding how such a crisis has been resolved throughout history or how they appeared in the first place? People can pretend to do what we do, but how is that possible without the data?

Hammurabi’s Law Code was obviously created because of a wave of inflation seeking to fix wages and prices, and it established that ALL agreements must be in the form of a written contract. Richard Nixon tried to impose Wage and Price controls in 1971, just like Hammurabi.

These discoveries show that history is still unfolding. Such finds should change the textbooks in college, but that may yet take many more years. They are still teaching theories from the fixed exchange rate system, which ended in 1971.

Biden for President – Indefinitely!

Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Post ed Jun 30, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Biden for President – Indefinitely!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted May 23, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, do you believe in UFOs?


ANSWER: Yes, but I am not sure they are exclusively from other planets. It is hard to explain why they have not made contact at some point in time. However, perhaps they did make contact a very long time ago and there may be two versions of visitors. Einstein’s equation E=mc2 proves that time travel into the past is possible theoretically and scientists say that if it is still impossible for us to put this into practice, it doesn’t mean that time travel is impossible. It would seem that if centuries from now humans discover time travel, then this would seem more logical that they are here only to observe. That would account for the multitude of incidents whereas aliens would have to travel a long way to observe a primitive culture.

An uncle of mine was a pilot during World War II and he said they encountered advanced ships frequently that could even fly circles around the plane while moving. Then you do have those who believe and refer to the Bible with the passage that at the last judgment the “elect from the four winds, from one end of the heavens to the other” implying the universe, not just the earth. 

There are many interpretations. It could easily be an admixture of two types of sightings.

Google MUM Search Engine – Is it Dangerous?

Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Posted May 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: What is your opinion of this new Google MUM AI search engine?


ANSWER: It is for complex searches, and it is using a neural net. What you must understand is that a neural net is capable of finding things within a database. It is not capable of original analysis. IBM’s Watson was touted as having the ability to cure cancer. It failed. It could beat anyone in Jeopardy, and it could play chess. But a neural net will never actually provide true thinking in an original context.

I was creating AI during the early 1980s. I created a program to mimic a politician and let my kids play with it. It would store your answers and keep a conversation going. For example, it might ask if you have a pet. You respond, “Yes, a dog.” “Oh, boy or girl?” “It’s a girl.” “What’s her name?” “Napoleon.” It would record that info, so the next time my daughter would go on the computer, it would ask, “How is Napoleon?” She came home from school one day and saw I had the computer apart. She began to cry, thinking I kill it.

I learned how to create an AI system that would seem alive. It would have a personality. Curse at it, and it would curse back. But it wasn’t alive. It could not think for itself.  To accomplish the next level, I had to teach it how to analyze on its own. That could never be accomplished through a neural net. It takes more definitive power than just that. Still, it will never become conscious. It will not wake up one day and decide it hates my guts for some reason and wants me dead.

Google’s MUM will advance searching. However, it will not suddenly become conscious out of nowhere and rule the world. We have really evil people for that.

Fourth Industrial Revolution Failure

Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Apr 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: As a programmer and a client of Socrates, I can tell this is not some neural net or deep learning AI program. What you have created goes far beyond that. Do you care to share your design?


ANSWER: No. I fooled around with neural nets back in the 80s. I could see they would never accomplish what was necessary for global analysis. The same was true about Deep Learning. Those are solutions for one-dimensional objectives, in my opinion. IBM spent untold amounts on its Watson. They thought it would be able to cure cancer. It failed.

What makes Socrates unique is that I had to TEACH it how I would analyze. It is not as simple as throwing in all the data and hoping something will create itself, as in neural nets. You can do that with a simple problem like creating an AI program to determine if making a loan will have a higher probability of default or not. You feed in all the past history and sort according to income, purpose, etc. That will work most of the time. However, what happens if there is an economic shock such as shutting down businesses due to COVID? Or perhaps a war emerges. No program created in such a manner will ever be able to forecast those external factors.

Even all the high-frequency trading programs are one-dimensional. The collapse of Archegos Capital is indicative of what happens with a one-dimensional program which inevitably will be used with personal opinion. Even the Long-Term Capital Management collapse was the same problem. They even wrote a book about that – “When Genius Failed.” These one-dimensional programs will work nicely until there is an outside external force that they can not see coming.

To accomplish what Socrates does is far beyond anything you can imagine. The variables are off the charts, and seeing the future even with the arrays involved 72 separate models. We must understand that most AI programs that people write are still very one-dimensional and lack nonlinear concepts.

Unfortunately, 99% of all programs that people claim are Artificial Intelligence are really just expert systems. For example, you could take every disease and list its symptoms. Then you add a query and the program would simply look up the disease based upon the symptom. This would probably be better than seeing most doctors for that is why they always say get a second opinion. This type of program is not AI, for there is no true independent thinking process taking place. Nevertheless, this is what is typically marketed as AI. This has created in and of itself a false impression of what Schwab calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Even facial recognition is simply a pattern comparison. Nothing is truly taking place other than a lookup system with a database.

What is online is a small fraction of what Socrates does. We intend to provide a desktop program that will be able to tap into language and voice capabilities. We can deliver voice via the internet, but trying to accept voice input from the client over the internet is a different problem altogether.

When Schwab boasts about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, he is clueless as to what that would even entail. You will not find even one mainstream media outlet that would dare to write a story that Socrates even exists. The analysis would change everything, for it is not based upon “opinion,” which they love to provide. Additionally, Schwab would block any press on Socrates because it also forecasts that this cabal of his fails in the end. Everything Schwab envisions is still one-dimensional. He has no idea of the complexity of the nonlinear design necessary to really provide a valid methodology for forecasting.