Fourth Industrial Revolution Failure


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Apr 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: As a programmer and a client of Socrates, I can tell this is not some neural net or deep learning AI program. What you have created goes far beyond that. Do you care to share your design?

HS

ANSWER: No. I fooled around with neural nets back in the 80s. I could see they would never accomplish what was necessary for global analysis. The same was true about Deep Learning. Those are solutions for one-dimensional objectives, in my opinion. IBM spent untold amounts on its Watson. They thought it would be able to cure cancer. It failed.

What makes Socrates unique is that I had to TEACH it how I would analyze. It is not as simple as throwing in all the data and hoping something will create itself, as in neural nets. You can do that with a simple problem like creating an AI program to determine if making a loan will have a higher probability of default or not. You feed in all the past history and sort according to income, purpose, etc. That will work most of the time. However, what happens if there is an economic shock such as shutting down businesses due to COVID? Or perhaps a war emerges. No program created in such a manner will ever be able to forecast those external factors.

Even all the high-frequency trading programs are one-dimensional. The collapse of Archegos Capital is indicative of what happens with a one-dimensional program which inevitably will be used with personal opinion. Even the Long-Term Capital Management collapse was the same problem. They even wrote a book about that – “When Genius Failed.” These one-dimensional programs will work nicely until there is an outside external force that they can not see coming.

To accomplish what Socrates does is far beyond anything you can imagine. The variables are off the charts, and seeing the future even with the arrays involved 72 separate models. We must understand that most AI programs that people write are still very one-dimensional and lack nonlinear concepts.

Unfortunately, 99% of all programs that people claim are Artificial Intelligence are really just expert systems. For example, you could take every disease and list its symptoms. Then you add a query and the program would simply look up the disease based upon the symptom. This would probably be better than seeing most doctors for that is why they always say get a second opinion. This type of program is not AI, for there is no true independent thinking process taking place. Nevertheless, this is what is typically marketed as AI. This has created in and of itself a false impression of what Schwab calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Even facial recognition is simply a pattern comparison. Nothing is truly taking place other than a lookup system with a database.

What is online is a small fraction of what Socrates does. We intend to provide a desktop program that will be able to tap into language and voice capabilities. We can deliver voice via the internet, but trying to accept voice input from the client over the internet is a different problem altogether.

When Schwab boasts about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, he is clueless as to what that would even entail. You will not find even one mainstream media outlet that would dare to write a story that Socrates even exists. The analysis would change everything, for it is not based upon “opinion,” which they love to provide. Additionally, Schwab would block any press on Socrates because it also forecasts that this cabal of his fails in the end. Everything Schwab envisions is still one-dimensional. He has no idea of the complexity of the nonlinear design necessary to really provide a valid methodology for forecasting.

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases


Excellent Physics Written by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer Published on June 8, 2020

The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth’s ve most important, greenhouse gases, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines having strengths as low as 10􀀀27 cm of the HITRAN database were used to evaluate the dependence of the forcing on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order 10􀀀22 W for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4. For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the per-molecule forcings are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O and CH4, than those of H2O or CO2. Doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4 increases the forcings by a few per cent. These forcing results are close to previously published values even though the calculations did not utilize either a CO2 or H2O continuum. The change in surface temperature due to CO2 doubling is estimated taking into account radiative-convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as water feedback for the cases of xed absolute and relative humidities as well as the eect of using a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at various latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with modelled intensities.

A sample from Page 6 in the paper

A sample from page 35 in the Paper

Click on the Download box below to get the full 37 page paper it is worth reading if you are a serious researcher on climate physics.

The Real Vortex & Astrology


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Feb 25, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you ever use astrology?

EK

ANSWER: No. Astrology I believe really dates back to at least the Babylonians. They conduct a research project catalog everything and attempted to correlate it to events. Clearly, astrology originated in Babylon far back in antiquity, with the Babylonians developing their own form of horoscopes around 2,400 years ago. Then around 2,100 years ago, it appears that astrology spread to the eastern Mediterranean, becoming popular in Egypt, which at the time was under the control of a dynasty of Greek kings. The oldest know astrologer’s board has been discovered which dated back prior to 2,000 years ago.

To me, it is still one-dimensional. We really live in a vortex as illustrated here. It is kind of looking at markets only in a single currency. The reality is far more complex. To me, you are measuring just to the planets, but we travel through the universe as well. The combinations are exponential.

The origin of what creates the cycles from the beginning of time may be like throwing a stone into a standing pool of water. At the very instant the stone hits the water, the amount of energy force is thereby set in motion. The waves are all predetermined.

I believe that based upon physics, the universe will expand only to a point whereby the energy of the movement will decline and then the internal gravity will cause it all to reverse direction and implode back to its original, and then it will start all over again. I believe the 8.6-year frequency which I have measured in economics to nature, was set in motion from the origin. There is nothing in this theory that is against divine creation. There is disagreement on that issue. Some argue the universe will keep expanding and perhaps run out of gas along the way. Others, like me, believe it is more like throwing a ball in the air. The resistance will eventually slow the upward movement and gravity will seize control and bring it back down to earth. I believe that is the more likely course of action simply because that is how everything else functions right down to a pendulum and cyclical activity.

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases


Excellent Physics Written by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer Published on June 8, 2020

The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth’s ve most important, greenhouse gases, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines having strengths as low as 10􀀀27 cm of the HITRAN database were used to evaluate the dependence of the forcing on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order 10􀀀22 W for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4. For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the per-molecule forcings are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O and CH4, than those of H2O or CO2. Doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4 increases the forcings by a few per cent. These forcing results are close to previously published values even though the calculations did not utilize either a CO2 or H2O continuum. The change in surface temperature due to CO2 doubling is estimated taking into account radiative-convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as water feedback for the cases of xed absolute and relative humidities as well as the eect of using a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at various latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with modelled intensities.

A sample from Page 6 in the paper

A sample from page 35 in the Paper

Click on the Download box below to get the full 37 page paper it is worth reading if you are a serious researcher on climate physics.

The Absence of Randomness


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: A follow-up up to your blog post – look at these striking similarities. A coincidence? Probably not, eh?

BC

REPLY: Yes, excellent find. Once you understand that everything is cyclical, to me it is sort of like the movie the Matrix. Suddenly he sees the code to everything. Once you understand that energy itself moves in a cyclical manner no matter what be it the waves in the ocean, light to even sound, then you will see the world in its true form. It can NEVER be reduced to a single dimension as the environmentalists do focusing only on CO2. That is so naive like believing in witch-doctors. The world is complex and we must look at all the permeations of interaction. History repeats because it is not random.

There are many dimensions to cyclical waves. But they all conform to clearly established rules. There is no such thing as a random walk. Anyone who says that is admitting they are incapable of multidimensional thinking and multitasking.

Personalized Robots


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Jan 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Great Conjunction Next Week


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Dec 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Numerous people always ask if astrology is incorporated into Socrates. The answer is no. From what I can say is that what I see is a complex network of numerous variables that keeps the global econo0my functioning. Trying to say that something will happen in the market because of a planetary convergence that people have been tracking for centuries is subjective to me. That said, planetary conjunctions may not be the cause of some event, but they may be part of a complex network that is behind events.

Next week we have the solstice, which will be the shortest day of the year. That comes every year and does not produce anything on a regular basis. However, this time we have Saturn and Jupiter that will appear to almost kiss this winter solstice, creating the illusion over the centuries that it is a major star appearing out of nowhere. Here, these two gas giants will look as though they’re are virtually one in the night sky in an event known as a “great conjunction,” which happens roughly every 20 years.

Nonetheless, this year’s great conjunction will be exceptionally close coming in just a tenth of a degree apart. The last time Saturn and Jupiter appeared as one star was July 16, 1623, back when the famous Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei observed it. However, this great conjunction varies in closeness and those events where it is this close take place only every 397 years.

This 397-year cycle is very interesting. It coincides with the 300-year cycle in weather caused by moving into a solar minimum. These events have marked when the climate has turned cold. During the 1600s, they called that the Little Ice Age. Note that in 829, that was also the peak in the mini-Ice Age where the Nile River frize i9n Egypt. On the 1226 event, it was also believed that the rare Christmas star was shown. This does not appear to be true but it may have marked the crucifixion of Christ.

Events in the heavens have traditionally been seen as omens of some event or another.  The appearance of a comet at the time of Julius Caesar’s death promoted his divinity for political purposes. His nephew Octavian, later to be given the name Augustus by the Senate (27 BC-14 AD), issued coins with the comet that appeared at the time of Caesar’s death with the legend: DIVVS IVLIVS (Divine Julius). This was self-serving and used as justification of his rule as the first Emperor of Rome beginning the Imperial Era. But that was not Halley’s Comet.

Halley’s Comet has been recorded as early as 467 BC by the Greeks. The Chinese chroniclers also mention a comet during this year. However, the Chinese astronomer Shiji also recorded its appearance in 240 BC. The Babylonians recorded its appearance in 164 BC in two clay tablets in the British Museum. Again, the Babylonians recorded its appearance once more in 87 BC. It was this appearance that lasted for about one month that was celebrated on the coinage of Tigranes II the Great, an Armenian king who is depicted here on coins with a crown and a curved tail. It was portrayed as ushering in a New Era of the brilliant King of Kings. Tigranes II the Great issued the earliest coin depicting Haley’s Comet which is represented by the star in his crown.

Halley’s Comet appeared around 12 BC and it was recorded in the Book of Han by Chinese astronomers of the Han Dynasty. They tracked it from August through October during 12 BC. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio, a comet appeared almost suspended over Rome for several days at the time of the death of Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa who was Augustus’ close friend. He issued a coin depicting Agrippa with a comet above his head.

There has been considerable debate about whether Halley’s Comet was also the Star of Bethlehem. The appearance in 12 BC, is not that distant from the conventionally assigned date of the birth of Jesus Christ which has a range of 6AD to 4AD. This is based mostly on the biblical story of Herod the Great. Not long before Herod’s death, which is generally attributed to have occurred in 4BC but even that is in dispute.

Referencing the Haley Comet connection, some theologians and astronomers have also to suggested that this might explain the biblical story of the Star of Bethlehem and provide a more documented confirmation of his birth coinciding with the time of the death of Agrippa. However, there are also records of other comets that appeared closer to the date of Jesus’ birth.  In a 1991 article in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, astronomer Colin Humphreys proposed that the Star of Bethlehem was actually a slow-moving comet, which Chinese observers recorded in 5 BC.

So as you can see, correlating events in the heavens with events on earth has been a pastime for centuries. What does this mean for next week? Besides the fact that the Electoral College must get the final votes to Washington on December 23rd next week where electors could still upset the apple cart, what comes through from this 397-year cycle is the exceptionally cold weather were are having this winter.

In addition to the colder weather, simultaneously there are also droughts. The Hunger Stones marking droughts appeared in 2018. I have been warning that we are witnessing major droughts around the world. The droughts that have been recorded on the Hunger Stones dating to 1417, 1616, 1707, 1746, 1790, 1800, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, 1892, and 1893, which covers a period of 476 years.

I have been warning that while there are colder winders, not warming, and we have droughts in the summer, this is by no means caused by humans. This is a clear historical trend if anyone bothered to look at the contemporary sources during these periods

Teaching Children to Think


QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thank you so much for sharing the connections Socrates is making between seemingly unrelated ideas. I’m a high school/collegiate science teacher and am wondering if Socrates has identified any correlations between coming astronomical phenomenon (like lunar phases or planetary alignment) to war or the economy. The information you’ve provided on the Sun has been amazing!
BTW, my students and I use the information you blog about as the foundation for the conversations in our Socratic seminars.
Thanks for all you do!
MC

REPLY: I have not used astrology even though my understanding has been that it was devised by the Babylonians who sought to correlate events on earth to events in the heavens, as well as the movements of the earth and animals. I am not so certain that specific events in the markets can be forecast by that method because things change and there are more complexities involved today. Nevertheless, they may align with what I have to say from time to time. The cycle of the sun 300 years aligned with our 309.6-year cycle. It is interesting that these solar cycles are getting weaker. The climate change that appears to be on the horizon is not global warming, but global cooling.

There is no discussion of even how the poles flip. I worked out the cycles on that from the data that was sent to us to see what Socrates would come up with. It turned out to be a 720,000-year cycle, so unfortunately we do not have an account of what took place the last time. Nonetheless, we are in line for that change perhaps post-2032. The poles flip every 11 years on the Sun. But, nobody lives there to explain the impact. There is no discussion of the sun cycle nor the movement of the poles in this climate change scenario they put forth where they claim we will all die after 7 years.

I am thrilled that you are teaching your students how to think. I really wish more teachers stopped the brainwashing and open their own eyes to the agenda being forced upon the youth for nefarious purposes.

Gamma-Rays – Solar Minimum – Volcanoes – Human Immune System


QUESTION: Disease cycle and two way streets
I had a small light come on for me that is big. Here it is, what if during the Disease cycle that is linked to the sun cycle is a two way street? What if at the same time that solar output is low and weather is unstable leading to pestilence. Here it is, something that I have not seen none if very little discussed about the effects of the extra Gamma Radiation that occurs at this time also due to the weak magnetosphere from what I briefly looked at this type of radiation lowers the immune system so there you have it I connected some dots what do you think?
Peace
LP

ANSWER: There have been many studies on the impact of UV and gamma radiation during solar changes and events. Gamma-rays are a form of electromagnetic radiation, as are radio waves, infrared radiation, ultraviolet radiation, X-rays, and microwaves. Gamma-rays can be used to treat cancer, and gamma-ray bursts are studied by astronomers. I have also reported that our correlation models also show that solar minimums correspond to increased volcanic activity. Volcanic winters take place during solar minimums. It certainly seems that gamma-rays may be the reason volcanoes erupt more during these periods. This certainly also reduces food production and increases disease, presumably because of a rise in malnutrition. However, since gamma-rays are also used to treat cancer, there is at least a basis to warrant further investigation if the increase in gamma-rays during solar minimums impact certain susceptible people or those with particular DNA sequences.