Posted originally on Jan 27, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

COMMENT: Well, these economists and market soothsayers will never match Socrates or your Economic Confidence Model. Consumer Confidence just collapsed to a 12-year low. Amazing how you can forecast recessions years in advance.

LK

ANSWER: These people reject even the idea of a regular cycle, for that means that they cannot manipulate society. If they cannot manipulate the economy to retain power, OMG, then the future requires fiscal management, not mismanagement.

US consumer confidence has plummeted in January to the lowest level in 12 years on more pessimistic views of the future. The press will tout that Americans are worried about the nation’s economy, inflation, and a weakening labor market. But they are also concerned that we have NOT freed ourselves from these Neocon Endless Wars.  The figure was the lowest since May 2014 and fell short of all economists’ estimates.

The capture of Valerian I (253-260AD) was the first time a Roman Emperor had ever been captured in battle. Bankers were not sure if they should even accept Roman coinage. That set in motion the Crisis of the 3rd Century AD. Can you image if Trump was captured by China or Russia and the uncertainty that would set off globally?

I have researched the centuries and the common denominator is CONFIDENCE. Once a government loses the confidence of the people, it can no longer survive.

We are in a recessionary trend GLOBALLY into 2028. Europe is now insisting that they no longer need the United States. They can conquer Russia all by themselves for the 6th time. The next ECM turning point will be July 2026. Just review how many markets are all showing high volatility or Panic Cycles in July. TIMING is everything.