Posted Oct 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Americans are heading into the November 3 midterm elections with confidence in Congress at historic lows. A new Gallup poll found that only 14% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest approval rating recorded immediately before a midterm election since Gallup began tracking the measure in 1974. Only 15% of registered voters believe most members of Congress deserve reelection, while just 43% believe their own representative should remain in office. That is the lowest reading for support of one’s own representative in Gallup’s final pre-midterm surveys dating back to 1994. Americans have traditionally criticized Congress while maintaining a more favorable opinion of their own representatives. Now even that distinction is deteriorating. The dissatisfaction extends across party lines, with congressional approval at 29% among Republicans, 13% among independents, and only 4% among Democrats.
The economy remains central to this discontent. Gallup found that 38% of Americans identified an economic issue as the nation’s most important problem, including inflation, the general economy, and gasoline prices. Another 26% specifically cited government or poor leadership. These concerns are closely connected. Households are paying substantially more for food, insurance, housing, energy, and everyday necessities than before the pandemic. Politicians continually speak about inflation as though the problem disappears when the annual percentage declines. The average family does not experience the economy through a government statistical release. They see the price of groceries, their mortgage payment, the cost of automobile insurance, and whatever money remains after taxes. Slower inflation does not reverse years of lost purchasing power.
Housing affordability has become another major economic dividing line. Younger Americans who did not purchase property before the enormous increase in prices and mortgage rates face a completely different financial environment from those who already own homes. Families with accumulated assets can help their children with down payments or even purchase homes outright, while those dependent entirely upon wages struggle to enter the market. The result is an economy increasingly divided between those who own appreciating assets and those attempting to acquire them. Washington can celebrate economic growth and employment statistics, but those figures do not necessarily reflect the financial circumstances of ordinary households.
The national debt is another issue that cannot be separated from the broader loss of confidence in government. Washington continues financing substantial expenditures through borrowing while interest payments consume an increasing share of federal resources. Both political parties have contributed to the accumulation of debt over successive administrations. The consequences do not disappear when control of Congress changes. The federal government must continually refinance its obligations while funding entitlement programs, defense expenditures, and countless other commitments. Politicians debate how to distribute additional spending while rarely confronting the long-term financial consequences of the obligations they have already created.
There is a historical pattern worth examining. Gallup reports that the president’s party has lost House seats in 11 of the 13 midterm elections since 1974. The exceptions occurred in 1998 and 2002, when congressional approval was comparatively high at 44% and 50%. In every midterm during that period when congressional approval was below 30%, the president’s party lost House seats, although the extent of those losses varied. This historical relationship illustrates how public dissatisfaction has influenced previous elections, but it does not determine the outcome in 2026. Congressional districts, individual candidates, turnout, and local political conditions remain important.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist survey conducted October 19–20 found that 52% of likely voters supported Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 44% supporting Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26 reported a similar Democratic advantage of 53% to 44% among likely voters. These are national measurements rather than results for individual congressional districts. They show that voters can express overwhelming dissatisfaction with Washington while still maintaining distinct preferences between the parties.
The Marist survey also found that 44% of likely voters viewed their congressional vote primarily as a vote against President Trump, compared with 21% who considered it primarily a vote in his favor. Another 35% said the president was not influencing their decision very much. Midterm elections frequently become referendums on the administration occupying the White House, even though Congress independently controls legislation, appropriations, and oversight. The danger in reducing every election to a judgment on the president is that members of Congress can escape scrutiny for their own voting records and financial decisions.
The coming election will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats, including special elections. Republicans currently hold narrow congressional majorities, meaning changes in relatively few competitive districts could substantially alter the legislative balance. The next Congress will influence federal spending, fiscal policy, trade, oversight, and the administration’s domestic agenda. A divided government could produce greater negotiation or prolonged gridlock, depending upon the willingness of elected officials to compromise. Neither outcome can be established from national polling alone.
What makes this election particularly significant is the combination of economic dissatisfaction and declining institutional confidence. Americans are confronting elevated living costs, an enormous federal debt burden, geopolitical uncertainty, and continuing disputes over the proper role of government. The Gallup findings suggest that many voters are dissatisfied not merely with particular policies but with the performance of Congress as an institution. The political establishment has enormous authority over taxation, borrowing, military appropriations, and the regulatory framework affecting the economy, yet public confidence in its ability to manage those responsibilities has deteriorated dramatically.
The November 3 midterms will provide a clearer measure of how Americans translate these frustrations into political choices. Whatever the composition of the next Congress, the underlying economic problems will remain. Inflation has already reduced purchasing power, the federal debt continues to require financing, and housing affordability remains a major obstacle for younger generations. Washington can change which party controls the committees and who occupies the leadership positions, but that alone does not repair the national balance sheet or restore lost purchasing power. The real test will be whether elected officials can address the economic conditions driving public dissatisfaction rather than simply treating another election as a contest for political control.
Categories:Politics
