Posted originally on: Nov 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, first I must thank you for coming to Paris. Unlike in the United States, you were on French national TV. You truly made an impression here.
My question is this: you said that the EU consumes more than 50% to feed the bureaucracy. The view here is that our economy is doing extremely badly, as you warned would happen at your talk here. People need to know that this idea of socialism is what is collapsing. No matter what happens, the government is completely run by a group of incompetents who juggle billions while families struggle just to put food on the table. Macron, as you said, blamed Trump for the rise in energy, but he omits his support for Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia that started the rise in fuel costs.
Are we headed to a new Sixth Republic? Would you advise establishing a new government?
Andre
ANSWER: In 2025, France’s total public expenditure reached €1.7141 trillion, with public spending equal to 57.3% of GDP—the highest share in the European Union. This is the core problem: the government consumes 57.3% of the economy, leaving minimal living standards for the people. The protests began with a major movement known as “Block Everything” (Bloquons tout), which held its first major day of action on September 10, 2025 (2025.693). Cyclically, this could reach a major crest as late as August 12, 2027.
However, the protests in France became large-scale and nationwide starting on October 17, 2026 (2026.794). What began as a student movement over school conditions escalated into a broad national upheaval involving hundreds of thousands of people and significant violence. In the short term, this could continue into December 16, 2026.
This coming week may see renewed conflict. Macron’s mistake is what all government do when they are threatened with collapse – they lash out at the the people and try to suppress them, but this does not solve the problem – it only postpones it. We are headed into a world recession into 2028 and this will magnify the unrest. The risk that the French government will fall turns up in 2028/2029.
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The economy is not working. GDP is falling and Europe is desperate for war. You are hearing all the government telling people to stock up for what is their intended war. They will create some sort of false flag to claim they have been attacked by Russia.
Here is Former Defence Select Committee Chair, Tobias Ellwood, talking about how this government is not doing enough investing in military in the UK. Clearly war is in the air in Europe. Escalation is somehow “guaranteed” despite Putin having said repeatedly that he is NOT interested in a greater war with Europe.
The idea that a threatened ruler starts a war to hold onto power is an old observation in political thought. The concept is a recurring theme in history and political science, articulated by various thinkers and observers.
A quote attributed to Plato captures the essence:
“When the tyrant has disposed of foreign enemies by conquest or treaty, and there is nothing to fear from them, then he is always stirring up some war or other, in order that the people may require a leader.”
Henry Kittredge Norton (1928) in his book Back of War, he described it as an “old trick” where a governing power, “threatened by rising discontent and opposition within the borders of its own country, precipitates a foreign war to reunite the country and vindicate its own authority.”
Political scientists have documented this dynamic in many specific cases. I am NOT pulling this out of thin air. Even recently, Saddam invaded Iran in 1980 partly as a “pre-emptive strike to shore up his personal rule” against internal threats. He also reportedly told interrogators that a principal reason for invading Kuwait was his belief that he needed to keep his restive army occupied.
The entire reasoning behind the 2nd Amendment in the US Constitution was to thwart this problem of governments using military power because it is just there. The Price of Savoy was one of the most outstanding generals who influenced Montesquieu who in tuen influenced the Founding Fathers that a standing army is dangerous for the state will always use it because it is there. No war has been authorized by a Declaration issued by Congress since WWII. This proves the very point that Savoy made that kings created war because they had an army that needed to do something.
Idi Amin (Uganda) back in the 1978 war with Tanzania is cited as an example where Amin’s primary goal was to deal with a threat from his own military forces, not a foreign adversary.
Hérault de Séchelles (1791) during the French Revolution, summarized the logic succinctly:
“War will justify all your steps; for, in brief, it is at home that war must be made on rebels before it can be carried abroad.”
When I say the EU is desperate and Russia is the best enemy money can buy, they face the same choice. The EU will crumble and break apart, or they create war with Russia to retain power. This is a well-established principle in political theory and a recurring pattern in historical analysis.
Categories:WarCivil Unrest
