Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Oct 22 2025

High-Crime Blue Neighborhoods to Become Police-Free Zones


Posted originally on Oct 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Violent Crime

Brooklyn’s 73rd Precinct is dangerous territory. In the past year, felony assault increased by 26%, grand larceny jumped 30%, burglary is up 40%, and robbery increased by 23%. Liberal lawmakers are implementing a new solution and eliminating all police presence.

Former Mayor Bill de Blasio pushed to defund the police. The New York Police Department (NYPD) has struggled to retain staff amid soft-on-crime regulations and reduced financial assistance from the local and state government. High-crime areas will now be guarded by community group members. Crime will continue to run rampant but the numbers will decline as there will be fewer arrests.

Twenty unarmed community members will monitor the area from noon to 6:00 PM. Cops will line the perimeter to handle high-level offenses but they are not permitted to wear their uniforms. In fact, liberal judges will likely fine them for enforcing the law so they’re unable to act until after a crime has been committed.

Liberal activists believe police-free zones will provide them with safety, dangerously believing the theory that police officers are far more threatening than actual criminals. Seattle piloted a similar program in 2020 amid the George Floyd fallout from June 8 to July 1. Overall crime rose 77.5%. Underreporting rose as calls for police service declined 31% since residents feared community backlash. Two teens died, sexual assaults went unreported; the mayor was forced to cancel the program as citizens began to flee.

Minneapolis erected a George Floyd Square from May 2020 to July 2021 where volunteers handled 70% of all 911 calls. The city praised the measure as 200 calls were de-escalated and over 10,000 visitors flocked to the memorial site. However, violent crime in the zone spiked 21% and it became an open-air drug market. It cost the city $1 million to cleanup the mess but they hailed the program as a success.

Democrats thrive on lawless chaos. Anger in motion becomes civil unrest that opens the door for the government to take control of that chaos. Citizens who cannot afford to leave these zones must live in fear as criminals overtake their streets while politicians surrounded by personal armed security pat themselves on the back.

Oct 21 2025

The Countdown is On: One Month Until the 2025 World Economic Conference


Posted  originally on Oct 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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MA War Cycycle at 2011 Conference

We’re officially one month away from the 2025 World Economic Conference — the most anticipated economic event of the year!

This year’s conference promises to be unlike any before. With markets in flux, debt spiraling, and geopolitical tensions rising, understanding the global economy has never been more critical. At the WEC, you’ll gain exclusive insight into Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) — the same model that has accurately forecasted turning points for decades.

Why Attend?

  • Exclusive economic forecasts from Martin Armstrong
  • Deep insight into the ECM, the world’s most accurate long-term cyclical model
  • Forecasts on capital flows, inflation, debt, and geopolitics shaping 2025 and beyond
  • Network with attendees from over 30 countries, including investors, policymakers, and entrepreneurs
  • “You don’t have to agree with me — just follow the model. It’s never been wrong.” – Martin Armstrong

Seats are filling fast, and this is your opportunity to hear directly from the man whose models have guided governments, institutions, and investors through decades of global change.

Reserve your spot today — visit the Events page to secure your ticket before it’s too late. In-person tickets are extremely limited and likely to sell out.

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And don’t miss the next Marty and Mike Podcast dropping this Friday where Martin and Mike dive into the latest market shifts and what to expect heading into the conference.

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The World According to Martin Armstrong is also available on Amazon for those interested in reviewing the major predictions on the Economic Confidence Model and the full story behind 20 predictions that came to fruition:

    • Dow 40,000 (Predicted: Dec 2019 / Verified: May 2024)
    • Trump’s 2016 win (Predicted: Aug 2015)
    • Brexit (Predicted: 2015)
    • The COVID crash (ECM turning point: Feb 21, 2020)
    • The rise of populism, crypto, and civil unrest
    • The collapse of trust in government and media
    • The war cycle peaking into 2024-2025
    • Sovereign debt crisis beginning 2023
    • The downfall of woke corporations
    • The failure of negative interest rates

The countdown has begun — the world is changing, and the insights you gain at the 2025 WEC could make all the difference. We hope to see you there!

Oct 21 2025

The EU to End All Russian Gas Imports by 2027


Posted Oct 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  
Crude Oil Production

The European Union will phase out all Russian oil imports by January 1, 2028. New contracts will be prohibited after January 2026; existing short-term contracts must cease by June 2026 and long-term contracts by January 2028. The EU still believes it can target 45% renewable energy by 2030 and reduce its reliance on fossil fuel entirely. These conditions are perfect for inflationary price spikes and bottlenecks leading to extreme volatility. Europe has dismantled its economy to support Ukraine.

Cutting Russian gas imports reroutes the flow of capital across Europe and the globe. Alternative sources must be developed, infrastructure must be built, and agreements must be implemented. Gaps will lead to serious volatility, but these bureaucrats have no understanding of the larger implications.

There is no concrete plan B. Europe is back and forth on whether it wants to rely on the US. The US itself was begging other nations for oil under the Biden Administration and is prone to massive shifts since the two party system has two drastically different views on energy. Norway has become the bloc’s top pipeline gas supplier and is expected to deliver 120 billion cubic meters annually through 2027. New LNG contracts exist with Qatar and African suppliers. The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) has been expanding to 20 bcm per year and runs through Bulgaria and Greece.

Moscow supplied the EU with 40% of all gas imports before the conflict began in 2022 and offered gas at a historically low price. Trade was beneficial to everyone involved before Brussels decided to engage in economic warfare through sanctions on behalf of a nation that is not in the union. The union now imports around 6% of its current oil supply from Russia, but is heavily relying on the US and Norway. The US is charging up to 25% more on average. Norway’s gas production is not sufficient enough to power all of Europe singlehandedly. Europe is consuming around 400-450 bcm annually while Norway is only producing around 120 bcm. The US is naturally a safer bet than the Middle East or Africa due to geopolitical woes, but again, Europe is paying a premium and politicians are not eager to rely on America.

From the perspective of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM), this announcement is a turning‑point signal. Structural shifts like this rarely unfold smoothly. They are the precursors to non‑linear movements in commodities, currencies, and equities. Markets will price in expectations, fears, and geopolitical risks long before the physical supply is affected.

Energy is power. Power drives capital. The EU successfully drove capital away by decimating its energy sector through Russia and net zero initiatives.

Oct 21 2025

China Halts US Soybean Purchases


Posted  originally on Oct 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

soybeans

The United States did not export soybeans to China this September amid the trade war. This is the first time since November 2018 that China declined to purchase from the US. Distrust has peaked and neither nation will rely on the other for essentials. Chinese tariffs on US agricultural goods are now around 34% when factoring in VAT and MFN duties. American farmers who heavily relied on Chinese demand are currently harvesting 4.3 billion bushels with few available buyers.

China became the top buyer of American soybeans because of comparative advantage. China moved from farms to factories in recent decades and began to rely on American agriculture. Washington did not consider the repurcussions when it weaponized trade.

This impacts the entire economy. People believe this will only impact Midwest “MAGA” conservative farmers but no sector exists in a bubble. Kansas, Iowa, and North Dakota, for example, export 70% of soybean output to China and the loss of revenue has rippled from the local economy to the state. Loan defaults and foreclosures are anticipated. Land values are plummeting. Then the federal government under the USDA must cover one-third of export-related losses. Billions in revenue have been eradicated.

China is turning to Brazil for 85.2% of soybean imports, up 29.9% YoY. Argentina removed tariffs on grains and secured 9% of Chinese soybean demand. China is holding 40 million tons of soybeans in its strategic reserves so that it cannot be used as political leverage.

The USDA believes net farm income for row crop producers will decline around 20% form last year, largely due to the loss of soybean revenue. The American Farm Bureau reported that exports to China in the first half of the year fell from 985 million bushels to 218 million on the annual with purchasing now coming to a complete halt.

Soybean prices in the US are down 40% from their three-year highs. South America is seizing the opportunity to corner the market with Paraguay and Bolivia increasing production along with Argentina and Brazil. The entire supply chain is shifting and taking capital along for the ride. We are looking at a serious issue for US agriculture if trade talks fail ahead of Brazil’s next harvest. Capital control and trade restrictions could be a possibility in the not-so-distant future.

Oct 21 2025

Europe Preparing to Confiscate Private Accounts for War?


Posted  originally on Oct 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

  

The European Union is planning to cancel paper currency and move to CBDC to carryout:

  1. Claiming they wish to elmininate the American credit card system of VISA and MasterCard they claim for economic independence when in truth the European monetary system is collapsing.
  2.  They are seriously claiming national security insistenting that Putin wants to invade Europe when there is NOTHING there of indepndent monetary value to justify such an invasion. They have no energry, gold, or rare earths. It is a Marxist utopia that is imploding just as Communism did in Russia and China. Who wants to step into that mess. It will collapse all by itself. Noe the Eu wants to claime the threat of a Russian invasion to justify their confiscation of private accounts to fund their war with Russia,
  3. To prevent capital flight from the EU trapping all capital for their use.
Digital Euro

The ECB ADMITS that it has been investigating the issuance of a digital euro — a CBDC for the euro-area, which would be a digital form of central-bank money, accessible to households and businesses. The “preparation phase” for the digital euro began back on November 1st, 2023.

Christine LaGarde, who whgen the head of the IMF, threaten all the has havens if they di not turnover the accounts of Europeans that she should remove them from SWIFT. She had also threatened the Vatican. How she has been pushing for a Digital Euro to ensure that nobody can frin €100 euro bill without given the state their 65%. This past September 2025, an EU gathering of finance ministers reached a “compromise” on how the digital euro would work — including limits on how much each person could hold, and giving national finance ministers a say in the issuance decision.

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European Union finance ministers agreed on a roadmap for launching a digital euro currency that aims to become an alternative to the now dominant U.S.-based Visa and Mastercard systems. Their discussions on a digital euro, creating an electronic wallet backed by the European Central Bank, is ramping up rapidly because the EU is now keen to impose capital controls so they can just cponfiscate money out of your account at will and you cannot withdraw cah because they in tend to cancel all paper currency. To accommodte the poor, they have already declined that having a bank account is a huiman right.

Moreover, they claim that they also want to reduce its dependence on other countries in key areas like energy, finance and defence. That targets Europe’s reliance on U.S. credit cards and as a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s global push for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar. Yet, the ECB, the main sponsor of the project, has failed so far to secure legislative approval for it. The bankers are complaining it may hollow out banks’ coffers, cost too much or curtail privacy. How do banks lend out money if it is tied up in wallets that the government controls?

The ECB President Christine Lagarde ainsists that she has reached an agreement on the next steps. She has proposed that the EU finance ministers have a say on whether a digital currency is issued and how many such euros each resident will be able to hold, which is seen as crucial for assuaging fears of a run on bank deposits. They was 100% capital controls but does that completely alter the very need for banks? She will allow an opportunity for a discussion in the Council of Ministers.

EU Break up

The attempt to confiscate private assets to fund a war with Russia is so anti-democratic, it is following the path of Karl Marx and as such the EU is not worth saving. It is in the final throwa of climing to life. The most accurate and widely accepted answer is that the European Union (EU) was officially established on November 1, 1993, when the Maastricht Treaty came into effect. It does not appear that the EU will be able to suring much beyond 2030. The Virtual Euro began functioning as an electronic currency for banking and financial transactions. The “Cash” Euro: January 1, 2002. This is the date most people remember, when euro banknotes and coins entered circulation.

If you do not move your money out of Europe before 2026, you may find yourself trapped unable to even buy gold.

Oct 21 2025

The Telegraph Exposes its Stupidity & Bias


Posted  originally on Oct 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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COMMENT: This is what the Telegraph reported:

“Yet again, Donald Trump has changed course on Ukraine. In a heated meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, the US president reportedly swore and shouted at the Ukrainian leader, demanding that his country submit to Vladimir Putin’s peace terms or face destruction. After Mr Trump suggested only weeks ago that Kyiv could win back all its territory from Russia, Memphis Barker, our Senior Foreign Correspondent, discusses where this latest volte-face leaves Ukraine.”

I just felt the need to say, like that old song, You are the bridge over troubled waters. Just for the record, anyone serious reads you because you actually understand what is taking place and who the players are. Even when the fake news isn’t trying to be bogus, their hatred of Trump blinds them to everything else.

LC

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REPLY:  It’s a shame that there isn’t a bomb that just exterminates journalists. That might actually save humanity. At the first meeting at the White House, I passed on info directly from Ukraine that Boris Johnson flew to Ukraine 3 days before and instructed Zelensky to insist that the signing must take place in Washington and not Kiev. He was to create a scene and embarrass Trump into keep funding Britain’s Proxy War with Russia. That is why the first meeting was a shouting match.

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This is why NO MAINSTREAM PRESS would dare interview me. They do not want to report the truth – it’s always hate Trump, change your sex to reduce the population, walk to work, and of course, it’s always Putin, Putin, Putin. The word “NEOCON” to them is the same as “SOURCE.” These people are totally irresponsible, and if there is World War III, they created it just like Pulitzer, who made so much money creating the Spanish American War, he left it to Columbia University to wstablish the “Pulitzer Prize” for good journalism, named after the father of Yellow Journalism? You can’t get more hypocritical than that.

Obama Peace Prize

Well, perhaps handing Obama the Peace Prize for being Black despite the fact he asked Congress to invade Syria – all in the name of “PEACE” which is the Neocon version of conquest. If you kill all your enemies real or immagined, then there will be peace when they rule the world. The Obama peace prize was the lowest point in history for the commission. I would never leave a bunch of money to any university to create some prize in my name. They would turn it into some Transgender Award for walking to work in your 15 minute city and somehow that promotes sound economics and peace simultaneously.

Oct 20 2025

Only 46% of Americans have Adequate Emergency Savings


Posted originally on Oct 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Roll Cash

Three to six months of emergency expense savings has been the standard caution. Rising inflation, lower purchasing power, and a contracting job market have put a dent in American household savings, and it is safe to say this trend is common among all nations grappling with the cost-of-living crisis. At present, 46% of Americans have enough emergency savings tucked away to cover three months of expenses.

A Bankrate survey found that nearly a quarter of Americans do not have anything saved, while 30% have some savings but not enough to cover three months of expenses. About 19% of respondents said they could cover three to five months of living through emergency savings, and 27% have enough to cover six months. Eighty-five percent of respondents said they need at least three months of emergency savings to feel comfortable, but again, only 46% have that amount saved.

Baby Boomers are relatively fine—41% could comfortably cover six months of expenses. A quarter of Millennials believe they have six months covered, while only 20% of Gen X and 10% of Gen Z could say the same.

Living expenses continue to rise, purchasing power continues to decline, wages are stagnant, and the people are unable to save. The issue here is that the economy is not as robust as data would indicate. In fact, one in three adults tapped into their savings accounts between February 2024 and February 2025. Over 80% of those who took out savings did so to pay for the essentials. Consumers have already tapped into credit, as 33% of Americans have more credit card debt than emergency savings.

Millions of people are unprepared for an economic downturn. This is not the result of poor financial planning but the outcome of abrupt fiscal policy changes. The average person could not have fathomed the current prices of goods. Cheap credit during the pandemic provided the illusion of a government backstop. The Fed lowered rates as the people took on more debt, believing it was “cheap” debt, but everything comes at a cost. This will eventually fall on the banks when the time comes and they are unable to collect. More importantly, civilization becomes utterly unsustainable when the majority are unable to meet expenses. This plays into a larger role of what’s to come as we reach the sixth wave in 2032—the people will have nothing to lose but the current system that has failed them.

Oct 20 2025

Could France’s Nuclear Program Protect Europe?


Posted originally on Oct 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

World Nuclear War 4

French President Emmanuel Macron believes his nuclear arsenal has the power to protect all of Europe. Macron firmly believes that France does not need the United States, especially under Donald Trump, and continues to reassure Europe and NATO that his nation could supplement the United States’ potential absence from the alliance.

The United States has the second-largest nuclear weapon stockpile in the world. As of January 2025, the US held 3,700 warheads, including 1,770 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). There are an additional 1,300 retired warheads waiting to be dismantled, and a further 1,938 warheads in reserve, which brings the total number of nuclear devices (on file) to 5,000.

Macron in Military Parade

America continues to upgrade and replace its nuclear weapons at a rapid pace. There is a reason the world points to America as the hub of the military-industrial complex. The Department of Defense budgeted $49.2 billion specifically for nuclear weapons in FY2025 alone and the Department of Energy budgeted another $32.7 billion for warhead maintenance and modernization. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US will spend nearly $1 trillion on its nuclear weapons program from 2025 to 2034.

In stark comparison, France has 290 nuclear warheads. The number in its arsenal remained relatively unchanged year-on-year. France plans to spend €5–6 billion per year ($5.4–6.5 billion) on its nuclear weapons program in 2025. Although the figure represents about 15% of the national defense budget, it is a drop in the bucket compared to America’s $81.9 billion annual nuclear budget.

France’s nuclear arsenal is not large enough to act as a global deterrence. The US military has strongholds throughout the world—the Middle East, Europe, Asia, South America, and Antarctica. It gained the title of the world’s global police force for a reason. America’s military presence can be felt and is feared. NATO would be extremely vulnerable without America’s nuclear and financial support.

Oct 20 2025

One in, One Out – Migrant Shuffling across the UK and France


Posted originally on Oct 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Refugees Just Men

France’s Emmanuel Macron and the United Kingdom’s Keir Starmer implemented the “one in, one out” program that has become the most blatantly ridiculous migration plan in modern history. France will take in migrants who attempt to enter the UK from French waters. In turn, France will send back an equal number of migrants to the UK in an equal swap.

How does this solve the migrant crisis? It doesn’t solve the crisis—these men are adamant on keeping the borders open. France has agreed to process all returned migrants, and those “vetted” will be permitted to return to the UK. The only qualifications are that they must pass a vague security check and have no record of attempting to enter the UK in the past. The program is designed to target single males, who represent the main demographic of “asylum seekers.”

UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood deemed the measure a “breakthrough” for migration. After all, the UK claims it needs to implement digital IDs to sort out migrants. The last administration attempted to broker the Rwanda scheme to combat illegal immigration and spent 700 million pounds on the measure. The result? FOUR migrants were deported.

“Those costs include £290million payments to Rwanda, chartering flights that never took off, detaining hundreds of people and then releasing them, and paying for more than a thousand civil servants to work on the scheme,” former Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced. She dubbed the program a “asylum Hotel California” where people may come but never leave. “They just stay in the asylum system. Even if they’ve come here unlawfully for economic reasons and should be returned to their home country, they won’t be because the law doesn’t work,” she later added.

The Labour Government decided to maintain “asylum Hotel California.” The total number of “asylum seekers” returned to France under the current scheme was last slated at 26, while the total number returned to the UK is 18. The UK invested £100 million in enforcement support and will fund the majority of the program.

The UK processed 49,341 intruders within the first six months of the year, marking a 27% annual increase. An alarming 88% arrived via small boat, bypassing the once-feared British Navy via canoe. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is using France as a “safe third country” to legalize mass migration and is abusing tax dollars to repopulate the nation.

Oct 20 2025

Did Trump Force Zelensky to Back Down?


Posted originally on Oct 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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COMMENT: Marty, we realize you have no respect for the Nobel Peace Prize after they gave it to Obama for absolutely nothing.  However, we should all nominate you because we also know you have been working the back channels in Washington and Moscow. It seems like Trump followed your recommendations for Zelensky to back down from no territory to surrendering the Donbas, as you have poinently argued would end the war. I have a friend who was with an embassy in Moscow. He said what they did to you gave you more credibility than anyone else from the Russian view.

We also know you have been trying to beat your own computer. If anyone can do it, it has to be you.

Tell Scotty to hold off on beaning you up just yet.

Paul

REPLY: I have been getting that a lot lately. They will never nominate me. I am that evil white man Hillary talks about. I assume that having a bronze statue is more practical. Pigeons need a place to perch and shit.

I cannot verify that Trump took my strategy to insist that the Minsk Agreement be honored if he refused to exit NATO to force the EU to heel, and to threaten an executive order prohibiting any American funds from being invested in Ukraine. My recommendations would shift the burden to Ukraine and the EU, where it belongs.

say the EU and Ukraine will reject any deal Trump does with Putin, so her bloodthirsty coniving needs to be circumvented. By demanding that the Minsk Agreement be honored, she cannot say this is Trump, and they had no say. The EU agreed and signed this deal, and then lied and never honored what they signed. Flipping this back onto the lap of Kallas, we would disarm her from claiming the EU was not part of any deal.

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Minsk Agreement 2 13 2015