Posted originally on Sep 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION #1: Hi Martin,
Since the international war array started picking up in 2022 but peaks in 2026 with a panic cycle, do we in fact expect a serious deflagration potentially nuclear but very short lived and closing by 2027 since it’s the peak? Would that mean a very swift demise of European stupid leaders and we’re done for the following few years until the US and China want to face off?
Best,
PH
QUESTION #2: Marty, I was at your 2011 Philadelphia conference when you said that war would start in 2014 and that ended up with the Ukraine Revolution and Kiev attacking the Donbas, starting the Civil War. I believe you said this will build in intensity, similar to the ECM going into 2028. Do you have any updates on that?
Roger
ANSWER: Keep in mind that just as the Economic Confidence Model is NOT in the computer arrays, neither is the War Cycle. The array is ENTIRELY the product of Socrates with ZERO human interference. Then there are two primary databases. One is only wars between nations, and the other is purely domestic civil unrest that can emerge as revolutions, as in the cases of the American Revolution, the US Civil War, the French Revolution, the 1848 European Revolutions, the 1917 Russian Revolution, and the revolutions in Asia.
Under NO circumstances do I ever interfere with the cyclical forecasts of Socrates. That would defeat my own objective. Sociales is reliable BECAUSE it is NOT biased. Being human means we have some predetermined hardwiring toward something. I tend to be personally in favor of freedom and against controlling government actions. I cannot allow that to color my judgment, so the best way is for me to look at Socrates, which will enable me to do the timing forecasts.
Here are two separate models. The ECM was derived from a list of panics. That is what makes this so accurate worldwide compared to Benner or Kondratieff, which were based on the economic data of the 19th century, when the dominant sector was commodities – agriculture. Because this was a list of PANICS, the sector differed, but the reaction was the same. As I have said, the 1960s taught me that panics occurred in stocks, collectibles, real estate, and gold, and eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system by 1971. This made sense to me, for what I witnessed was that the instrument did not matter. The common denominator was the human response.
That is what the ECM is all about and why it has been accurate. In 1932, not only did we see political change with Hitler coming to power precisely on the Pi Target, but FDR was also elected in the same year. Both sought a change in the economic trend that had been in motion—the Great Depression. Their motives may have been different, but the people responded the same, seeking political change.
Japan’s economy was hit hard by the global Depression, exacerbating social unrest and militarist sentiments. In May 1932, after the assassination of Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai by naval officers amid economic and political instability, Admiral Makoto Saito was appointed as a compromise leader to stabilize the government. The Depression’s impact strengthened militarist factions, influencing Japan’s shift toward aggressive expansionism. Prime Minister Makoto Saito came to power in May 1932. In September 1932, Saito’s government signed the Manchukuo Protocol, formally recognizing the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo in Manchuria. This followed the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931 (the Mukden Incident), which had been orchestrated by the Imperial Japanese Army without government approval.
Here, we see a significant political change in 1932, which coincided with the economic collapse and decline in commodities, as well as the US stock market. The reason behind each leader may be different, but the common threat is political change.
Separate from Socrates, the War Cycle builds in intensity as does the ECM. Here, the third wave, since the low of 1964 and the Tonkin Gulf Resolution of August 7th that year, brings us to a peak in 2028. When we look at the two forecasts of Socrates for 2026 for International War and 2028/2029 for Civil Unrest, and then look at this in the contaxt of the major Sixth Wave projecting to 2032 with the likelihood of the fall of our Republican forms of government worldwide, it appears the the World War III is just a prelude to the civil unrest that will ultimately bring down governments.
I am trying to merge these models into a coherent book that I hope will be out for the WEC in November. This is not an easy project. I am addressing the typical criticisms of those who refuse to believe in cycles and look at events as random and unpredictable. They are like a horse with blinders on pulling a carriage, unable to see anything other than what is directly in front of their nose. This will be the 40th Anniversary of our World Economic Conference. I seriously doubt I will make it to the 50th. So, it is time to pass on what I have learned before Scotty beams me up.
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