Posted originally on Jun 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Switzerland-based Credit Suisse Services AG pleaded guilty to conspiracy to defraud the United States by enabling ultra-wealthy Americans to hide assets in offshore accounts. The agency admitted to hiding over $4 billion from the IRS in at least 475 offshore accounts between 2010 and 2021.
As reported by the DOJ: “Credit Suisse Services AG entered into a non-prosecution agreement (NPA) with the Justice Department’s Tax Division and U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia in connection with U.S. Accounts booked at Credit Suisse AG Singapore. Under the NPA, Credit Suisse Services AG agreed to cooperate with the Justice Department in ongoing investigations and to pay significant monetary penalties for maintaining accounts in Singapore on behalf of U.S. taxpayers who were using offshore accounts to evade U.S. taxes and reporting requirements.”
Credit Suisse openly helped clients conceal assets from the IRS and took measures to ensure that the tax authority would not target their clients’ funds. The agency concealed income, falsified records, fabricated fake donations, and serviced over $1 billion in accounts out of compliance with US regulations.
The practice has become commonplace. The Singapore branch was found guilty of the precise crime in 2023 in a $2.6 billion scheme that ran between 2014 and 2023, but the agency received a mere slap on the wrist. The bank continued to serve undeclared accounts. The agency is receiving a slap on the wrist once more as it is required to pay $510.6 million in penalties, restitution, forfeiture, and fines. This is basically the cost of doing business, and potentially an advertisement for Credit Suisse.
This is the game. Big institutions are protected while smaller players are thrown in prison. If the average American failed to file their taxes, or misses a deadline for that matter, the government penalizes them by seizing up to 100% of the unpaid tax. If the amount unpaid exceeds $65,000, the US government will revoke your passport. If the US government deems that someone intentionally evaded taxes, as is the case with Credit Suisse, they send them to prison for up to five years, with the average sentence for knowingly evading taxes being 16 months. Credit Suisse may have paid the fine, but the bankers involved will face zero repercussions. The banks always claim ignorance, the regulators balance fines with cover-ups, and the press accepts the payout as punishment.
Posted originally on Jun 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, with so many markets all showing sharp rises in volatility of panic cycles in 2026, ahead of what appears to be a significant turn in 2027, the rumor is that your computer will be correct. According to my military sources, Ukraine is expected to fall by August or by 2026. They say the real numbers are suppressed and that the kill ratio is more like 20 Ukrainians to one Russian. The fake propaganda comes from Ukrainian intelligence, and the Biden Administration instructed the US intelligence not to contradict Ukraine to keep the propaganda flowing. I was told that Ukraine is imploding. The attack on the airbases in Russia has not changed the game. It was a desperate attempt to pretend Ukraine is winning. Russia is in no hurry for peace because this is a war of attrition that they are winning. The West is out of patriot missiles, artillery shells, and tanks. Ukraine has gone through everyone’s stockpiles, leaving NATO incapable of war with Russia before 2027, which seems to be what Socrates is saying. They are probably taking Socrates’ for real projections of time, based on what I hear.
Do you agree with these statements?
PC
ANSWER: Ukraine is essentially on fire, and Russia is in no hurry to negotiate peace, for Ukraine will burn itself out. This is a war of attrition, and Russia is outlasting Ukraine and all of NATO. Russia has expanded its military and its arms production, and it is far superior to NATO; it is laughable. The politicians of Europe are being misled by the NEOCONS who have never won a single war since WWII.
There were three main objectives of Russia that the West has constantly ignored. (1) Ukraine does NOT enter NATO, (2) Ukraine is not militarized, and (3) Ukraine must be de-Nazified. That third objective I can only see being possible by just killing all the Nazis in Ukraine, but honestly who are lurking behind smiles like Kaja Kallas, who has come out and said the EU will not honor any peace deal that Trump negotiates. She is the daughter of Siim Kallas, a former Prime Minister of Estonia, and Kristi Kallas, a physician. However, her family has a history of political involvement, which is the source of the problem.
Her mother and grandmother were deported to Siberia during the Soviet occupation because of her family’s ties to the Nazis. I should emphasize that her grandfather, Johannes Kallas, was investigated post-war but never prosecuted, for he served as a deputy chief of police in Tallinn under the German occupation (1941–1944). He was not formally a member of the Nazi Party. This role was collaborating with Nazi Germany. Kaja Kallas herself or her immediate family held Nazi sympathies. Many saw the Nazis as liberators from the Soviets.
Her personal hatred of Russia was because her mother and grandmother were sent to Siberia. Estonia was occupied by the Soviet Union (1940–1941), then Nazi Germany (1941–1944), and again by the USSR (1944–1991). In 2021, she stated:
“I cannot be held accountable for the choices of my grandparents’ generation, just as young Germans today are not responsible for what happened during WWII.”
Nevertheless, as Prime Minister of Estonia, she came out and said that Russia was too big and should be broken up. That was a deeply biased personal view, and this is the problem with this de-Nazification demand of Putin. It is hard to imagine how that will be possible when people like Kallas hate the Russian people for the very sins of previous generations who were communists. As a Russian or Chinese, if they want to return to the glory days of Communism, 99.9% will say no way. People like Zelensky and Kallas refuse to let go of this hatred of the Russian people for the days of Lenin and Stalin.
The hatred of the Russian people for the days of Stalin, who was a Georgian and not a Russian, is just overwhelming. Merkel deliberately lied to Putin and signed a peace deal only to allow Ukraine to build an army and thereby militarize. Then you have the EU that wants to bring Ukraine into NATO to create war with Russia. Sorry, but the computer warns that Russia will win, and this will be the third loss for Europe.
Just about every intelligence agency tunes into Socrates because it is not based on personal biases or opinions. In times of war, the truth is rarely ever reported. This is when an AI machine can offer the best advice, as there is no human interaction to influence the outcome.
Posted originally on Jun 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, this feud between Trump and Musk has caused me to wonder about Musk. Then, all of these forecasts are using tools you warned do not work because they rely solely on linear analysis. The Tax Foundation said Trump’s bill would result in a $2.6 trillion increase in the deficit. The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model claimed that the bill would raise deficits by $2.8 trillion. Then Yale’s Budget Lab claimed that over a 30-year window, the bill would add $10.8 trillion to the national debt. None of these organizations even understands that there is a business cycle. I find all of this chatter is no different from the climate change projects, as you said, one degree up this year means that will continue forever, and we will all die in 50 years.
Does Socrates have any view that is more reliable than these fake academic prognostications that are never right even once?
Rich
ANSWER: These forecasts are totally worthless. The CBO’s projections for the federal budget deficit were about $900 billion in 2019, and it was expected to exceed $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. The deficits for 2020, 2021, and 2022 were $3.1 trillion, $2.7 trillion, and $1.3 trillion, respectively. They are incapable of forecasting. How many millions do these fake forecasts cost? We will do it for 10% of their budget. They are all based not just on linear analysis, but on the classic assumption that all things remain equal. They NEVER understand that there is a natural inherent business cycle.
Socrates examines everything, and nothing ever remains the same. We have a Directional Change in the annual budget in 2026, and then you see the big target is 2027. Just looking at the French government, which is in its 5th Republic. France changes government like the Biden Administration changed the definitions of a woman from women’s rights for abortion to his appointment of Jackson to the Supreme Court, who said she could not define what a woman is. The French government is expected to fall in 2027, potentially taking the EU with it.
When you look at the chart for the annual budget deficit, we peaked with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Look at the 1998-2002 period. We had a balanced budget. I was asked by the Wall Street Journal to write about how this was accomplished. In sum, the manner in which President Clinton (1993-2001) was able to balance the budge was (1) the economy recovered in 1994 with capital pouring into the United States as it fled South East Asia resulting in the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997, (2) US Interest rates rose sharply in 1994 attracting huge capital inflows including those from Japan, and (3) Clinton shortened the maturity of the debt funding it short-term to cut interest expenditure.
The National Debt rose from $4,064.6 billion in 1992 to $5,807.5 billion by 2001. The shift in funding slowed the rate of growth. Interest rates at the Fed dropped by 6.5% in 2000 to 1.75% in 2001. When Clinton took office, the Fed Discount Rate stood at 3.5%. The rise began in 1994, which helped to attract foreign capital, especially from Japan, and it peaked in 2000 with the Dot Com Bubble on the heels of the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle that followed the collapse of Russian debt.
However, because Clinton shifted from long-term to short-term, which reduced the interest expenditures, now look at how the debt exploded when the rates went back up to 6.5%. This is what I mean by the Fed can no longer control inflation, for the biggest borrower is the government.
Posted originally on Jun 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
No matter what country we are looking at, we are witnessing the same timing on a global level. When I was compiling interest rates from around the globe and studying the global monetary system, I stumbled upon something very curious. There would be economic events and civil unrest around the world long before there were connections with the nations on the opposite side of the world. The old hatred between Cambodia and Thailand is rising again. We will see the same with Singapore and Malaysia. We are witnessing a rise in tension in Korea and Japan. Then there is Pakistan vs India. Of course, then there is China and Taiwan. The computer has projected World War III, and this is global. It may be simultaneous, but not always related.
Here is the timing array for Thailand. Note that the volatility would start to rise here in 2025 to be followed by a Panic Cycle in 2026 and then the turning point in 2027. This is the same profile that warns us that the government of France may also fall in 2027.
So stay tuned to Socrates. It’s the only real AI with more than a 40-year track record, and it is NOT a language model that will tell you to commit suicide or develop a personality. It is restricted to the financial markets and global economic trends – EXCLUSIVELY!!!!!
Posted originally on Jun 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Have you lost respect for Musk?
DD
ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. Look, both Trump and Musk act on instinct, you might say, but Musk lacks the experience. Trump is a negotiator, and he goes with the flow. He does not see any catastrophic shame in changing his mind quickly. Musk, on the other hand, is more of a visionary-entrepreneur. He has his vision and pursues it relentlessly. That is good for creating companies. However, he lacks the experience of dealing with Washington. Trump understands the government is not a business. Trump also understandsthat you cannot change the politics of Washington without a revolution. Musk is stirring the waters in which politically powerful resistance sells. He cannot sweep that away even with money. It will take the people to rise up and that will not happen until it impacts them. Musk cannot change the system with polls on X.
Musk’s claim that the Epstein files have not been released because Trump is in them was outrageous. I was really shocked by such a vindictive statement. That was over the top when everyone I know familiar with this case has never implicated Trump, and the Democrats would have loved that since they had the files. I am concerned that Musk may not be ready for prime time.
Posted originally on Jun 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Joe Biden’s former White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre spent nearly three years demanding that the American people turn a blind eye to the ongoing failures of Biden’s health and policies. Jean-Pierre is now seeking personal fame in her forthcoming book, “Independent: A Look Inside a Broken White House, Outside the Party Lines.” As a publicity stunt, Jean-Pierre announced that she had left the Democratic Party to become an independent.
“Until January 20, I was responsible for speaking on behalf of the President of the United States,” she said in a statement, according to The Associated Press. “At noon on that day, I became a private citizen who, like all Americans and many of our allies around the world, had to contend with what was to come next for our country. I determined that the danger we face as a country requires freeing ourselves of boxes. We need to be willing to exercise the ability to think creatively and plan strategically.”
Her role and only responsibility was to deliberately mislead the American public and spew out propaganda to dissuade the pubic from knowing the truth. Her “determination of the danger we face” is meaningless and beyond hypocritical. Perhaps she realizes that no one will now hire her. Biden himself noted that she was granted the position because he wanted to appoint a gay woman of color. She deserves to be subpoenaed to appear before a Congressional committee investigating one of the most extensive cover-up scandals in recent history.
“She made a joke about being an independent last year and now it’s a book. All ideas are monetary — even the dumb ones,” said one of the former staffers, as reported by Politico. Biden introduced her to the public as a DEI hire. Jean-Pierre was the LEAST transparent press secretary in the history of the United States. The few questions she did acknowledge were answered with blatant lies.
“The President has delivered historic economic growth, created millions of jobs, and made investments in infrastructure that are benefiting Americans in every state,” she touted. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics altered its data after Biden left office and admitted that the economy contracted. He sent jobs offshore. He passed the largest spending bill in American history under the premise of reducing inflation, which completely exacerbated the problem. “This administration is focused on lowering costs for families, strengthening our supply chains, and making sure America leads in the industries of the future,” she insisted. Biden later admitted the Inflation Reduction Act was a ruse to promote the climate change agenda.
She repeatedly mocked reporters for questioning Biden’s mental health, insisting he was “as sharp as ever.” “The reality is, that report, that part of the report does not live in reality. It just doesn’t. It is gratuitous. It is unacceptable, and it does not live in reality,” she commented after Robert Hur determined Biden was a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” who was unfit to stand trial. “We have released thorough reports from his medical team every year since he’s been in office. … As it relates to, you know, something like a cognitive test … the medical team said it is not warranted in this case. … We have put forward a thorough, transparent annual report on his health. So they have said that is not warranted. It is not necessary,” she insisted. When Trump demolished Biden during the debate that led to Kamala’s rise, Jean-Pierre insisted Biden merely had “a cold and a bad night.”
Independents frequently agree with policies from the GOP. That is not the stance of Jean-Pierre, who is merely switching her party affiliation to deter the ongoing backlash against the Biden Administration as new whistleblowers come forward every week. She identifies as an Independent, but she is from the same party that would permit someone to identify as a dog or a fish. This woman never belonged in politics and is a prime example of why DEI hires are never based on skill. Her departure is a reminder that no one wants to be affiliated with the deceased Democratic Party.
Posted originally on Jun 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Daily Beast, another LEFT-WING propaganda outlet, pretends that this strike means Ukraine is winning. I think every one of these journalists should be drafted, handed a gun, and sent to Ukraine to defend what they boast about. Sorry, Putin is the smartest leader in the room. He has drawn so many red lines, and the EU has crossed each one, trying to compel him to attack NATO. Despite the NEOCON propaganda that Western media keeps spouting, this attack does not mean Ukraine is winning on the battlefield, which takes soldiers.
Anyone with real sources knows that this is a proxy war, and the EU does not care if a single Eastern European is left alive as long as they take a Russian with them. Europe is collapsing economically, and without war, the EU will crumble and divide. The two economies that are actually shrinking are Japan and Germany. A source who was there in Brussels stated plainly that it is now Germany and Merz who are the most aggressive, pushing for war. The entire financial system built on perpetual debt that is NEVER paid off is coming to an end. They need war as a distraction, or the people will be storming the Parliaments.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Ukrainians are doing everything possible to strike Russian military targets, while Russian invaders continue attacking civilians. Johnson is probably one of the most loathsome politicians out there. I do not know how he sleeps at night. He is responsible for the deaths of more than 500,000 Ukrainians since he hopped on a plane to instruct Zelensky that he was not allowed to sign a peace deal.
“Ukrainians are unbreakable and technologically brilliant. They’re doing everything they can to hit military targets, while Putin indiscriminately slaughters civilians. Time for the UK and EU to back Lindsey Graham’s secondary sanctions bill. Time to tighten the noose around Putin and end this war.”
The UK government’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 97.6% and has been steadily rising. The UK claims that it has never formally defaulted on its sovereign gilt debt by refusing to make a scheduled interest or principal payment. However, the 1720 South Sea Bubble restructuring and the 1932 War Loan conversion involved significant unilateral changes to debt terms that harmed creditors, leading some historians and economists to argue they indeed represent forms of selective or de facto default/restructuring.
There are clearly economic reasons behind this thirst for war coming out of Europe, egged on by the Neocons on both sides of the Atlantic. The computer warns that the EU will fail and collapse. There is another problem nobody is talking about, and that is that all the migrants they let into Europe brought with them ethnic feuds. The EU politicians thought they would allow these people in and then send them to war. This is not going to work out as they hoped. There is a higher probability that we will see rising civil unrest in Europe.
The EU is correct that if Ukraine falls, there goes Europe. However, that does NOT mean Russia invades Europe. There is NOTHING there worth taking. Instead, the collapse of Ukraine is more about the collapse of the Western political hegemony. This will lead to the crumbling of the EU internally with division – not some invasion by Putin.
Ukraine is the great EU gamble. The hopes of conquering Russia to get the $75 trillion in natural resources to resurrect Europe as the pinnacle of economic power. The collapse of Ukraine really means the collapse of European debt, and the division will erupt just as you see in the American Democratic Party and its internal Civil War.
We will create a private blog to discuss the timing of the end of the Euro.
Posted originally on Jun 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: OK. I do not know how Socrates does it, but you said at the WEC that Trump’s term would be divided in half. You saw it working first and then encountered real trouble in the second half. You even hinted that he might not finish the term. Do you have any updates on that comment?
PAK
ANSWER: This blow-up between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is truly a disaster since Musk was Trump’s right-hand man. Musk has spent the past week attacking the GOP’s tax-cut bill just as Trump was pushing for its passage. This is becoming very confusing behind the curtain for many. The GOP was counting on both men. This appears to be what the computer has been warning about, suggesting that it did not see clear sailing for Trump during his 4-year term.
In all fairness, I am not sure what Musk expected. To put out this comment seems to be boring your bridges entirely, and this accomplishes nothing. Musk responded to Trump’s decision to cut subsidies for EVs but not for fossil fuels. He posted, “Whatever,” followed by, “Keep the EV/solar incentive cuts in the bill, even though no oil & gas subsidies are touched (very unfair!!), but ditch the MOUNTAIN of DISGUSTING PORK in the bill.” This does create the image of a potential conflict of interest.
This feud has escalated to insults ranging from pending legislation, why Musk left the White House, and how Trump may owe the fact he’s there at all to Musk’s millions. Trump immediately threatened Musk’s contracts, and Musk threatened to kneecap a key tool of the US space program. Musk then even suggested Trump should be impeached for a third time. You do not air your dirty laundry in public. I am surprised by Musk’s actions. This has implications for the financial markets.
Musk has lambasted the GOP bill and said that it will push the national debt close to $40 trillion as a budget-busting “abomination.” Trump, who said he’s “disappointed” by Musk’s sniping, claimed the end of electric-vehicle tax credits (and Tesla’s coming $1.2 billion loss as a result) is what drove his former adjutant away. “Such ingratitude,” Musk retorted. “Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House, and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate.”
This is a blow to the future that the computer has targeted. I have dealt with Washington, and Musk seems to be naive. The only way to make serious reform regarding the deficits and debt is through political reform, and this is not the way to achieve that. He has just made himself toxic in the eyes of the GOP.
The comment that the reason the Epstein files are not released is because Trump is in them is going too far. The reason those files have not been released is that all the BS that people think those who went to the island are pedophiles is absurd. I was warned when dealing with Wall Street decades ago:
BE CAREFUL, THEY USE GOOD-LOOKING GIRLS TO GET INTO YOUR OPERATION.
Epstein’s operation was blackmail. They did not use six-year-olds. That would be a pedophile. Using a 17-year-old, which is legal outside the USA since we arbitrarily have the highest age, was for entrapment. The question they are trying to find out is whether the people on the list were blackmailed, but by whom and for what purpose? Did Bill Gates become involved with Epstein to set someone up, allowing Gates to apply pressure? That is just speculation. His wife divorces him over Epstein, but why? Who was Epstein working for?
The circumstances around Jeffrey Epstein’s controversial 2007 plea deal in Florida remain heavily scrutinized, and the question remains unanswered whether the case was explicitly dropped because prosecutor Alexander Acosta claimed Epstein “worked for intelligence.” That remains hanging out there unexplained.
I have said before that Epstein was creating a sophisticated operation for blackmail. Wall Street used Elliot Spitzer to take down AIG head Hank Greenberg because he refused to allow AIG to issue guarantees for Goldman Sachs’ mortgage-backed securities. They used Elliot Spitzer as the DA of NY to remove Hank Greenberg from AIG, which opened the door for the 2007-2009 Crash. Removing Hank Greenberg made the whole Mortgage-Backed CDO Lending possible and the collapse of the Great Financial Crisis. Spitzer was fed info I believe to remove Greenberg by Goldman Sachs. It was Goldman who then sold the idea to AIG when Greenberg was removed.
Spitzer was just a pawn. He thought he was really cleaning up Wall Street. Then, when Spitzer turned on Wall Street, guess what? The Patriot Act ordering banks to report anything suspicious turned up checks Spitzer wrote to a hooker. So the Terrorist laws were then used to get rid of Spitzer to save Wall Street Investment Bankers.
Do you also remember the former head of the IMF, who also stood in the way of the agenda to remove countries from SWIFT if they did not hand over all people with accounts? Dominique Strauss-Kahn became a target when he was the IMF chief and began to comment critically on the role of the world financial system. I was personally invited to Washington, where Edmond Safra of Republic National Bank paid for the IMF dinner that rented the entire National Gallery. I was invited to demonstrate to me how the NY Investment bankers had the IMF in their pocket.
Strauss-Kahn was conveniently sent a maid to create a sex scandal to shut him up when he saw the corruption in the IMF. They removed him under false accusations and cleared the way for the IMF to become a tool of the bankers and the Neocons. That is how the whole Long-Term Capital Management crisis developed because they bribed the IMF to keep the loans going to Russia so they could buy their bonds by paying outrageous amounts of money.
Anna Chapman was a Russian Spy caught in New York City. She was swapped for American spies in 2010 and made headlines in New York. She was stunningly beautiful as well as stunningly successful. Well, if you are going to betray secrets, this is far better than the rubber hose treatment. Anna showed up in Ukraine to train with the soldiers leading the rebellion. She has become known as Vladimir Putin’s weapon of mass distraction.
Epstein’s targets were not a bunch of friends from the local pub. They were all powerful people. Not the type that, if you were into 17-year-olds vs 23-year-olds, which I doubt most middle-aged men would know the difference just looking at them, raises serious questions of blackmail.
Take Prince Andrew, whose life has been destroyed. Did you know that had he had sex with that girl in London, it would be legal? From the age of 16, a person is considered to be able to give consent to all sexual activity with other people aged 16 or over. The Legal age is 16 in most countries. So why did Epstein create an island in the USA where the legal age is the highest? Something is just not right.
Maxwell is in prison for soliciting girls, but again, there were no customers on the list. Why? Her father was part of the club who conveniently fell off his yacht and drowned just in time. The widely held understanding of the events surrounding Robert Maxwell’s death in 1991 is well known.
The Fraud: By the time of his death on November 5, 1991, Maxwell was deeply implicated in massive financial fraud that involved the Club. He had secretly plundered hundreds of millions of pounds from the pension funds of his own companies (including Mirror Group Newspapers and Maxwell Communications Corporation) to prop up his crumbling empire, cover personal debts, and maintain his lavish lifestyle, as they always say.
He was under intense scrutiny, but had not yet been formally charged or summoned to court for fraud at the moment he died. Investigations by banks, auditors, and regulators were accelerating rapidly, and the severe financial irregularities were becoming impossible to hide. He was facing imminent exposure. Key lenders (like banks) were demanding repayments he couldn’t meet, and the true state of his companies’ finances and the missing pension funds were about to become public knowledge. This would inevitably have led to formal legal action, including potential criminal charges and summons.
On November 5, 1991, Maxwell’s body was found floating in the Atlantic Ocean near his luxury yacht, the Lady Ghislaine, off the Canary Islands. He had last been seen on deck the night before. The official inquest concluded his death was accidental (drowning, likely due to a heart attack or stroke, causing him to fall overboard). This was met with significant skepticism. Given the scale of the fraud about to explode and the powerful enemies he had made (including intelligence agencies he allegedly worked for/with, angry investors, and pensioners), he either committed suicide to avoid disgrace, bankruptcy, and prison. Or, he was murdered by the Club.
Maxwell was at the epicenter of a massive, unfolding fraud scandal involving stolen pension funds. His right-hand man was Bill Browder, who then went into partnership with Edmond Safra and lost perhaps 90%, as the FT reported. The fund collapsed by $4 billion to at best $60 million, and HSBC stopped even providing net asset values. Browder’s name does not appear on Epstein’s list.
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