Aug 29 2025

Security Guarantees for Ukraine – EU Prepares to Enter War

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Peace talks are a moot point between Russia and Ukraine. Security guarantees for Ukraine have been at the forefront of Ukraine’s discussions but they are actually a premise to determine how other nations will officially enter the war. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed an ambitious security guarantee that would require allies to decide within 24 hours whether to deploy troops to Ukraine if Russia attacks.

“Allies” could use any excuse to send their men and women to the battlefield under this premise. Zelensky has been urging for Article 5 protection—an attack on one is an attack on all—despite Ukraine not being a member of NATO. Entering the conflict under Article 5 is voluntary, but the situation can only remain voluntary for so long when other members become further embedded in the conflict. Ten European nations have already offered to send troops to Ukraine. Zelensky insists that long-term restrictions on its military should be eliminated.

Ukraine would ideally like to join NATO, but NATO has never been willing to accept Ukraine as a member of its alliance. Instead, paying NATO members will offer Ukraine the very same protections they enjoy as the globalist powers abandon domestic sovereignty for a needless war. Europe knows it is crumbling under its own foot due the surmounting sovereign debt crisis, and rather than accept fault, the plan is to conquer Russia to bypass defaults. The computer indicates that this plan will fail.

I am preparing a report on the sovereign debt crisis for the 2025 World Economic Conference that will discuss this plan in further depth.

New_York_Post_Mr._President_Putin_is_THE_dictator_and_9_o

The European Union cannot admit its socialist experiment has failed, so it needs a distraction. Historically, when governments are bankrupt, they turn to war, and this is not a new strategy but human nature coming into play. The neocons in Washington are eager to play along and drag the US into Europe’s proxy war. The cost of living is skyrocketing among all developed nations, and rather than acknowledging failed policies or changing course, the West has decided to create a common enemy–Russia. Russia is the reason that the people are voting against their failed policies, according to the West and mainstream media. Russia is the reason that energy prices are rising, as they certainly cannot blame climate policies that have murdered the energy sector. Taxes are rising because of Russia. The forces that be would like the people to redirect their anger to the common enemy rather than revolting as they see the rising civil unrest and growing private debt burden.

Meloni said “there are clearly no easy solutions when it comes to stopping a war and building peace,” but she now realizes that peace is not an option. She showed potential at the beginning of her term, but has fallen under the thumb of Brussels. All of Europe, aside from Hungary’s Orban, has bowed to Brussels. The war will not be enough for the continent to hold on to its decaying union.

Aug 29 2025

The Sixteen Thirty Fund – Hidden Online Propaganda

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The Sixteen Thirty Fund is a dark money nonprofit that funnels hundreds of millions of dollars to left-leaning political causes. The group spent over $410 million in 2020 alone on media campaigns in an attempt to persuade voters to support “progressive” causes such as migration, climate policies, and abortion. George Soros, Pierre Omidyar, and Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss are known donors to the fund, although the group is not required to disclose their donations publicly.

Not only is the group permitted to operate anonymously, but those paid to promote their messages also operate in secrecy. WIRED magazine recently announced that the Sixteen Thirty Fund has been paying over 90 online social media influencers up to $8,000 a month to support Democratic causes. These content creators operate under the “Chorus Creator Incubator Program,” and they are provided with specific propaganda tools such as “advocacy training,” message briefings, newsroom events, and are often asked to partner with politicians and other left-leaning organizations.

Both sides advertise and push subtle messaging in the media; however, the Sixteen Thirty Fund has prohibited those in the Chorus Creator Incubator Program from disclosing their involvement with the fund. The elites who are promoting causes that they themselves do not abide by insist on anonymity. The 40+ million followers of these influencers do not know that these videos and posts are paid and curated by the leftist billionaire elite.

As a stipulation for payment, the Sixteen Thirty Fund required their minions to route all interactions with lawmakers through their organization to control the narrative.

Traditional political advertisements are disclosed as advertisements. “Paid for by…” However, the new form of media control is through “unique” social media messaging. Moreover, the majority of these social media platforms are already controlled by the leftist billionaire elite. Aside from Elon Musk’s X, all major channels can remove content at whim, and we saw their broad reach during the COVID-19 pandemic when every platform was scrubbing the internet of content that went against the left mainstream media narrative.

Propaganda is far more subtle in today’s day and age. The people controlling the narrative do not care about these causes. The people paid to push these messages do not understand that they are working for the very people they claim to detest.

Aug 29 2025

The Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding in Europe

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

COMMENT: Thank you for the private blog on the sovereign debt crisis. With both the UK and France in trouble and the possibility of the IMF bailing out these two major countries, everything you have been warning about is coming to a head. I was impressed. There was over $20 trillion in the room at the last WEC. This year’s WEC will be more than just an ‘I told you so’ event. Can’t wait. You certainly have a lot to cover.

REPLY: Well, between War, Sovereign Debt Crisis, shift in capital flows, risk of cancelling paper currencies, and even the rise in volcanic activity on target with Socrates’ forecast, we are looking at a profound shift with wildcards coming in from many directions. This year is our 40th anniversary since the first World Economic Conference was held in Princeton in 1985. Thank God for Socrates. It monitors everything and performs the work of over 1,000 analysts to provide us with a clear picture of what lies ahead.

I still had some hair back then and was probably 20 pounds lighter. We have the videos of that one, and there I was forecasting, look at the volatility we will experience in the decades ahead. That was undoubtedly an eye-opener at the time.

We did every country, and the charts were all hand-drawn for that conference back in 1985.

Here are some of the Reports for this Year’s WEC

Why_The_Majorityy_Must_Be_Wrong WEC 2025

Aug 28 2025

25 Nations Suspend Postal Service to the US

Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Twenty-five nations have declared a temporary suspension on all postal shipments to the United States amid tariff uncertainty. As of August 29, 2025, the United Stated will remove the de minimis exemption from law that allowed goods under $800 to enter tax-free. Tariffs range between 10% to 50% on the declared value, or $80 to $200 per parcel. Goods above $2,500 are subject to a Merchandise Processing Fee and additional formal customs checks. Processing delays and increased costs were incurred immediately, but now, a growing number of nations have decided to simply discontinue parcel service.

In Europe, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Czechia, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Portugal, and Ireland suspended services. In the Asia-Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand have halted services as well. Canada has also curbed its mail exports. All of this has been implemented at the federal level, whereas previously, individual postal carriers determined whether or not they would service the US.

“Despite discussions with U.S. customs services, no time was provided to postal operators to reorganize and assure the necessary computer updates to conform to the new rules,” France’s La Poste said in a statement. The Australia Post said the temporary partial suspension has been necessary to allow us to develop and implement a workable solution for our customers.” Italy’s Post Italiane noted that “the absence of different instructions from U.S. authorities,” forced the suspension of services. The United States did not consider the logistics of suddenly transforming import regulations.

American consumers are watching their orders decline in real-time. Items in transit are being returned of delayed, especially if they arrive after August 29. This is a fatal blow to small businesses that rely on international orders. American consumerism composes two-thirds of all GDP and other nations eagerly line up to sell their goods. Any downturn in trade is a negative for all parties involved.

The situation is still developing, but any suspension in parcel delivery will hurt the global economy. The United States did not give the world sufficient time to prepare for this new regulation. The EU, Japan, Canada, and others have the experience and infrastructure to integrate compliance changes and digital customs data, but other nations with less developed postal infrastructure are unlikely to quickly adapt their systems. These nations have been forced to halt services due to logistics rather than a punishment to the US as all parties involved will face consequences.

Aug 28 2025

Labour Party Approval Sinks to New Low

Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The United Kingdom’s Labour Party is experiencing the lowest approval rating since the last general election, with only 20% approving of Keir Starmer’s administration. What we are seeing in Britain is part of a broader global cycle of political discontent. Politicians are losing credibility because they are offering nothing but recycled policies that fail to address the economic storm at hand.

Starmer, like so many others in power today, has no real solutions. He inherited a fragile economy already crippled by decades of mismanagement, and instead of reversing course, he doubled down on the very same failed ideas. The endless promises of “green jobs” and “renewable energy revolutions” have failed. Energy costs remain high, industry continues to flee, and average households are struggling with the global cost of living crisis. The public feels betrayed because they were sold the illusion of prosperity under the Labour Party.

A Reform UK spokesperson accused Starmer of “cosying up to the EU and leaving [Britain] entangled in reams of retained EU law which Kemi Badenoch failed to scrap will not resuscitate Britain’s struggling economy.” Brexit may have occurred but the current administration has not broken ranks with Brussels. Starmer is forcibly pushing the UK into a war and compromising domestic policies for globalist ambitions.

If you come to the UK illegally, you will be detained and deported. End of story. pic.twitter.com/D7sgHcS4cG
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) August 26, 2025

The Reform UK Party is now leading the polls with 28% of the vote. Nigel Farage is offering the people a new opportunity under an administration that would prioritize domestic issues. Farage has called Starmer’s economic approach a “mad experiment” and has criticized government spending and excessive taxation. He has promised to save Britain’s energy sector and repeal all net-zero policies that cost over £40 billion annually. Farage published a piece on The Telegraph explaining the severity of the nation’s migrant crisis. He believes that the UK has spent £10 billion over five years on the migrant crisis and described the rise in crime and expenses as a “national emergency.” Farage has also expressed caution regarding sending UK troops to Ukraine.

The model suggests that as we approach the next critical political/economic wave, confidence in political leaders worldwide will erode. The people are turning to candidates whom the mainstream media paints as extreme because the world has awakened to the failed globalist policies that are destroying their nations. The people want national sovereignty that cannot be achieved through the establishment.

Aug 28 2025

What Happens When Governments Cannot Sell Their Debt?

Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

QUESTION: Marty, you have mentioned that at some point in history, when Italy could not pay off its 30-day short-term paper because it could not sell the new debt to pay off the old, as they do today, they converted 30-day paper to long-term. I cannot find the details on that. Could you please explain this, as it is a risk here in Europe today?

Bret

ANSWER: Yes, that was during the Panic of 1893 that became a Global Contagion. Italy, when faced with similar circumstances to what we see today, did not officially default in the classic sense of failing to pay. Still, it executed a coercive debt restructuring that is widely considered a selective default or soft default in 1893-1894. This is what we refer to as a forced loan.

Italy was facing a run on its short-term debt and unable to roll over the maturing paper because there were no buyers, the Italian government, led by Prime Minister Francesco Crispi, did not formally declare a default. Instead, it passed a law (Legge 11 luglio 1894, n. 386) that forcibly converted the short-term Buoni del Tesoro into a new long-term bond.

The law mandated that holders of the short-term Treasury notes could not be repaid in cash upon maturity. Instead, they were forced to exchange their maturing short-term paper for a new long-term government bond, called the “Rendita Italiana 5%” (5% Italian Annuity).

This new bond had a 5% coupon but was issued at a price below par (effectively giving a higher yield to compensate, somewhat, for the forced nature of the deal). Crucially, it was a perpetual bond, meaning it had no final maturity date.

The Italian government unilaterally changed the terms of its debt. Investors lent money for 30 days, expecting to be repaid in cash at the end of that term. The government broke that promise.

Investors had no choice. They could not get their cash back; their only option was to accept the new long-term instrument. While they received a new security, it was illiquid (perpetual) and its value was uncertain. This action caused significant financial losses for many Italian banks and citizens who held the paper.

I would expect that Europe will pull this one off when it can no longer issue new debt to pay off its old debt. We are living in a perpetual Ponzi scheme. There is ONLY one way this ends, and that is a default or a forced loan.

Aug 27 2025

The Insurrection Act – Can the POTUS Deploy the National Guard to America’s Cities?

Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The National Guard’s deployment to Washington, D.C., was a successful endeavor. For the first time, the city went twelve days without a homicide. Carjacking decreased by 83%, robberies fell 46%, and overall violent crime fell 22%. The same program may be implemented in Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York, but Democratic leaders insist it is unconstitutional.

“Chicago is a killing field,” the POTUS commented, calling Mayor Brandon Johnson “grossly incompetent.” Governor JB Pritzker is threatening to sue if Trump sends troops to his state. “First thing we’re gonna do is take him to court because it’s illegal. It’s unconstitutional,” Pritzker said. “Frankly, it’s un-American to send troops into an American city the way that he wants to to fight crime. There is literally a law on the books that says he’s not allowed to do that.”

Insurrection Act, codified at 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–254 does permit the president to deploy federal troops or the National Guard to states. Now, D.C. is not a state and the National Guard answers to the president directly. Trump was easily able to mobilize troops into D.C. after declaring a “crime emergency.” Deploying troops to other states may prove difficult without a specific request from the governor or evidence of a rebellion or denial of civil rights beyond the scope of local authorities.

252. Use of militia and armed forces to enforce Federal authority

Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States in any State by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion.

10 U.S.C. § 251:

Allows the President to deploy troops if requested by a state’s legislature or governor to suppress an insurrection within that state. This clause requires state consent and applies to insurrections against state governments.

10 U.S.C. § 252:

Permits the President to deploy troops unilaterally to any state to suppress insurrections, domestic violence, unlawful combinations, or conspiracies that make it impracticable to enforce federal laws. This clause does not require state consent.

10 U.S.C. § 253:

Authorizes deployment to any state where insurrection, domestic violence, or conspiracies result in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect those rights. This also does not require state consent.

Could the president declare a “crime emergency” in other American cities to bypass Democratic governors? It remains to be seen. However, one must question whether these governors are protecting their political party or their constituents.

Pritzker and Johnson insist Chicago is safe, but residents have taken to social media to prove otherwise. Pritzker posted a video of himself walking through one of the nicer areas of Chicago to claim the city was safe. Residents took to social media immediately to challenge him to come to their side of town without armed security. “Tell Brandon Johnson and Pritzker, if Chicago is so safe, with Brandon Johnson especially, let’s leave his 150 police detail. Fire them and walk around with no police detail. And Pritzker, no security,” one resident told reporters. “Come in my community, the South Side of Chicago. Come over there, and let’s see you say how safe it is. You can’t even sit in your car alone. If you sit in your car, you know there is a chance you’re going to get carjacked, robbed or shot. So tell him to come around in my neck of the woods and talk that.”

“We just had four mass shootings in a span of one month. Fourteen people got shot and four dead. We just had senior citizens laying shot, bleeding in the streets. And let’s not forget the gentleman who we saw, who was on Facebook Live, get robbed and shot while he was sitting in his car. So we don’t care about anything these people are saying,” one resident told Fox News.

The same situation unfolds every single time that a blue candidate is put into office. The Democrats are so desperate for voters that they are hoping pro-crime policies will convince the people that they are for less government intervention. The truth of the matter is that America’s cities are not safe and local law enforcement does not have the manpower or legal tools to quell the problem.

Aug 27 2025

70,000 Monks Nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize

A group of 70,000 Cambodian Buddhist monks conducted a peaceful march to nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Some of the monks broke their vows of silence to discuss the reason for their nomination.

On July 28, 2025, Thailand and Cambodia ended their five-day war over territorial disputes. Although neither country officially declared war, the conflict displaced over 131,000 people in Thailand and 4,000 in Cambodia. At least 32 people had lost their lives as of July 26, according to the Associated Press. Critics claim Trump does not deserve the nomination, as there was no official war to end.

Trump’s full post to Truth Social:

"Just spoke to the Prime Minister of Cambodia relative to stopping the War with Thailand. I am calling the Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, right now, to likewise request a Ceasefire, and END to the War, which is currently raging. We happen to be, by coincidence, currently dealing on Trade with both Countries, but do not want to make any Deal, with either Country, if they are fighting — And I have told them so! The call with Thailand is being made momentarily. The call with Cambodia has ended, but expect to call back regarding War stoppage and Ceasefire based on what Thailand has to say. I am trying to simplify a complex situation! Many people are being killed in this War, but it very much reminds me of the Conflict between Pakistan and India, which was brought to a successful halt."

On July 26, 2025, Donald Trump publicly posted on social media that he was speaking with leaders from both nations to “request a Ceasefire, and END to the War, which is currently raging.” Trump immediately halted trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand at a time when both nations were looking at a possibly 36% tariff hike.

Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Manet, and Thailand’s acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, both thanked Donald Trump after announcing the ceasefire. Hun Manet posted a letter to Facebook, in which he took the time to thank the US president for restoring peace in the region. The prime minister also declared that Trump should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for ending what could have been an extremely deadly conflict.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee would likely not select Donald Trump for the award, but there are tens of thousands of people in Asia who adamantly believe he deserves recognition.

Aug 27 2025

Merkel Shows NO Remorse for Refugee Crisis

Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Ten years ago, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel began the migrant crisis after uttering, “Wir schaffen das” (“We can do this”) and declaring that Germany was a safe haven for all refugees. In a recent interview with ARD, Merkel was asked to reflect on her 2015 decision that permanently altered the European landscape. To the surprise of no one, she feels no remorse.

“It was clear to me that this would be something truly challenging,” Merkel said. She congratulated herself for not using force to prevent refugees from entering. Over 800,000 Syrian refugees entered Germany in 2015 alone. The cultural landscape of Europe is unrecognizable today and budgets have imploded in an effort to maintain the migrant population.

Merkel does have one regret—strengthening the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party. The AfD campaigns on the promise of securing domestic interests first and foremost, which no other political party is willing to do. The people of Germany have turned to the AfD Party at a record pace because they have witnessed the failed policies of recent history, with the migrant crisis being only one of countless variables ailing Deutschland.

Merkel only received 16,233,642 votes during the 2013 election, which was 37.2% of the popular vote of Germany. So the majority of Germans never wanted these policies to start. She assumed she could revitalize the German economy to shift from export-dominated to domestic consumption. That was another failed fantasy, similar to the EU’s attempt to end wars by creating a single unified government. The immigrants, whom she thought would boost the German economy, added to the deficit. She declared that there would be no limit to the number of Syrian refugees accepted, and expected to be honored like a pious deity for her actions. She had no plan or budget for how to accommodate such a large influx of newcomers.

People, mostly unaccompanied males, from throughout the undeveloped world flocked to Germany and spread out around Europe. The majority have never left. Brussels, at the guidance of globalist entities, later forced all of Europe to open their borders. This is a crisis that the continent will be grappling with for years to come, but make no mistake about it—Angela Merkel alone is directly responsible for starting the migrant crisis and permanently altering European civilization.

Aug 27 2025

Merkel Shows NO Remorse for Refugee Crisis

Centinel2012

De Oppresso Liber

Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Security Guarantees for Ukraine – EU Prepares to Enter War

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The Sixteen Thirty Fund – Hidden Online Propaganda

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

The Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding in Europe

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

We did every country, and the charts were all hand-drawn for that conference back in 1985.

Here are some of the Reports for this Year’s WEC

25 Nations Suspend Postal Service to the US

Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Labour Party Approval Sinks to New Low

Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

What Happens When Governments Cannot Sell Their Debt?

Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Merkel Shows NO Remorse for Refugee Crisis

Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

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Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

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We did every country, and the charts were all hand-drawn for that conference back in 1985.

Here are some of the Reports for this Year’s WEC

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Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

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Posted originally on Aug 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

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Posted originally on Aug 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

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