Posted originally on Aug 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT FROM DC VISITOR:
D.C. was clean and safe. There were some National Guard troops walking around, but most of them were just kids fooling around and taking pictures in front of monuments like the rest of the tourists.
The city was skewed heavily to the left. I saw a few anti-Israel and anti-Trump protestors who seemed a little unhinged. The people I spoke with said the city was in absolute chaos during the George Floyd/BLM protests and that the National Guard and ICE raids were nothing in comparison.
I also went to the Spy Museum, which was a lot of fun. They had a wall honoring Ukraine with a picture of Putin in the crosshairs of a gun scope. The Cold War was the pinnacle of US espionage in recent history, and Russia and the USSR were used interchangeably. I skipped the 9/11 hall because it was a giant lie–we know what happened. The museum also claimed that only rogue spies in the US used torture mechanisms in modern days. There was one sentence on MKUltra and no mention of Project Monarch or any of the psychological warfare tactics.
I think they should send troops to the other big cities where crime has been allowed to run rampant in recent years. It felt safe to walk around at night, which is more than I could say about Philly or NYC. I’m sure the criminals cleared out because law and order were actually required and visible. Violent crime shouldn’t be downplayed. It’s preventable, and it would be nice if America became a high-trust society where we don’t fear other civilians on the streets. The troops and NG weren’t bothering anyone, but their presence alone probably commanded some basic civility.
Posted originally on Aug 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has come under fire for stating that it would be unwise to send troops into Ukraine. “We are the only European troop contributor to station a combat-ready brigade in Lithuania. Doing that and also stationing troops in Ukraine would probably be too much for us,” Wadephul told the Table Today Podcast.
Sending troops to Ukraine is highly unpopular in Germany among the citizens, despite the government’s eagerness to support Ukraine with manpower. The foreign minister suggested that Germany could provide military and technical support without entering Ukraine. Critics claim he is simply attempting to appease the people and betraying Ukraine by not offering to send men into combat. He also voiced another unpopular opinion—working with the United States to potentially provide security guarantees.
“We are now hearing signals from Washington that they are prepared to do so [provide security guarantees], and this must then be worked out together with the Europeans, with Germany naturally having to play an important role,” Wadephul said in the interview, adding Berlin could provide military and technical help, among other things.
The Bundeswehr deployed 4,800 troops to Lithuania, and again, critics believe it is ridiculous to say that the military is stretched too thinly to deploy others directly to Ukraine. It will cost Germany an estimated 800 million euros annually to maintain their current presence in Lithuania. No one thinks of the cost involved with sending troops into Ukraine, which is of little importance compared to the broader implications of sending troops and then actively forcing the entire nation and the European Union to fight on behalf of Ukraine.
The neocons are waiting for that “push comes to shove” moment. The people are extremely vocal about their point of view on the matter. Those looking at the numbers and logic alone are warning against deployment. Anyone who understands history is keenly aware that German is on the brink of completely entering a war against Russia that it is unprepared to fight. The entire EU will become involved in the war if Germany sets foot into Ukraine, as Germany is the economic powerhouse supporting the bloc, and France, the second most powerful in terms of finance, has similar wartime ambitions. It appears that push will come to shove by next year on 2026.45 when our computer indicates a central turning point between the EU and Russia.
Posted originally on Aug 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Ousted World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab has been cleared on any criminal wrongdoing following an ongoing investigation into fraud. “Following a thorough review of all facts, the Board has concluded that … there is no evidence of material wrongdoing by Klaus Schwab,” the board announced.
As mentioned in earlier posts, the WEF after an anonymous whistleblower claimed Schwab conspired with USAID to steal tens of millions in funding. Back in April, the WEF said its board unanimously supported the decision to initiate an independent investigation “following a whistleblower letter containing allegations against former Chairman Klaus Schwab. This decision was made after consultation with external legal counsel.” The board then sought to repair its relationship with Schwab and restore his dignity, along with the pious name of Davos.
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe acted as an interim chairman, and now that Schwab’s name has been cleared, the WEF has appointed its new leaders– Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, and Andre Hoffmann, vice-chair of Roche Holding. In a joint statement, the men blatantly stated their plan to combine government and business:
“ The world is more fragmented and complex than ever, but the need for a platform that brings together business, government, and civil society has never been greater. We believe the Forum can serve as a unique catalyst for cooperation, one that fosters trust, identifies shared goals, and turns dialogue into action.”
Stakeholder economics is at the forefront. It is of no coincidence that the corporation that purchased a large share of residential real estate during the pandemic is now at the helm of the same company wishing to usher in 15-minute cities—you will own nothing “turns dialogue into action.”
Anyone reading this blog is well-informed on Larry Fink and BlackRock. Billionaire André Hoffmann of Switzerland is an interesting selection as Roche Holding, founded by his grandfather, is one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. He is a major proponent for climate change efforts, yet his company has been accused of environmental breaches in the past.
Hoffman has been extremely critical of Trump and even denied the results of the 2024 US Presidential election. “I define myself as an idealist, and I would say that the couple of days after [Trump’s victory, it] was really quite difficult to pick [myself] up. This is a knockout,” says Hoffmann, speaking a few weeks after November’s US election. “Fifty-one per cent of Americans feel that a corrupt old man is going to make their life better? I’m sure it’s not true.” He criticizes RFK Jr. for investigating mRNA vaccinations and believes the people should blindly trust “the science.”
Larry Fink will work to force the corporate world to abide by ESG policies that he himself once decried. He will work on normalizing digitization of assets. Hoffman will focus on the health component of globalist dominance and control through weather manipulation theory. These men wield tremendous power individually but now plan to collaborate with the backing of the WEF to continue Schwab’s mission of the Great Reset.
Our computer had forecast that the WEF would enter a declining trend with the 2024 ECM turning point. This staged coup happened about 37 years after the first Davos meeting (8.6 x 4.3). From our model’s perspective, this was right on time. Now, Schwab and the WEF are working to repair ties.
Posted originally on Aug 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for participating in our board meeting. We had come to the same conclusion that all of this talk of BRICS and de-dollarization was being promoted by people in the conspiracy category, lacking any honest experience in international commerce. Before the meeting, we called one, and our Chairman listened. They could not answer any real economic question. The claims that this is the end of dollar hegemony only exposed their lack of expertise.
Trump’s tariffs, Biden’s sanctions, and the freezing of Russian assets were all supposed to kill the dollar as Russia, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa were to construct parallel financial systems as if they would no longer sell to the United States. Then there was the mention of backing by gold. Our chairman was very impressed that you could answer every question. You pointed us in the right direction with common sense and your real-world experience.
Thank you once again. As you said, us is about one third of the entire world consumer market, and global financial transactions to IPO are predominantly in dollars. Our Chairman will be at your WEC personally this time.
SFD
ANSWER: Thank you. Because this is such an important topic and I do not have the time to attend every board meeting internationally, I thought it best that I lay out the gist of our discussions. Your company is in the global business, and it is pathetic how the majority of these people preach the same nonsense without understanding world commerce. The US dollar’s dominance in international finance is clear despite BRICS, but its share varies across different areas. Before World War II, countries issued their debt in British pounds in order to sell it in London.
U.S. Multinational Dominance: U.S. companies earn massive profits overseas. This is the PRIMARY reason why these analysts do not understand world commerce. Apple, Microsoft, and Pfizer all generate more than 50% of revenue abroad. In 2022, U.S. multinationals earned $1.6 trillion from foreign affiliates (BEA data). Then there is the Intellectual Property (IP) and Services such as our firm with offices around the world. The US is a net exporter of IP, royalties, and high-value services (e.g., Google’s ad revenue abroad).
The US traditionally runs a goods deficit (manufacturing) of $1 trillion/year but a services surplus of $300 billion if we look at the accounting based on the ownership of companies rather than location, US overseas affiliate sales ($6 trillion/year) dwarf foreign affiliate sales in the US ($4.5 trillion/year). Now throw in the net IP receipts ($100 billion surplus), the U.S. likely shows a net Trader Surplus on an ownership basis.
When combined with services, IP, and overseas profits, the overall balance shifts to a surplus. The US benefits disproportionately from globalized production because its firms capture value through branding, R&D, and IP—elements obscured by traditional trade metrics. This highlights why trade deficits alone are an incomplete measure of economic health. Looking at the ownership-based accounting better reflects where value is captured in global supply chains. I have argued this in Washington, but it goes in one ear and out the other.
Global Trade Invoicing & Settlement (Primary Focus):
Approximately 40-50% of all global trade (exports) is invoiced in US dollars. This means the prices of goods traded internationally are set in dollars, regardless of the countries involved. Over 80% of global trade finance (letters of credit, etc.) is conducted in dollars!!!!! Around 88% of global foreign exchange (FX) transactions involve the US dollar on one side (according to the BIS Triennial Survey). This underpins trade settlements and makes the whole stupid argument of de-dollarization laughable, for they are mixing geopolitical with economics.
SWIFT data (payment messages) accounts for roughly 46-48% of international payment messages (by value) that are denominated in USD (as of mid-2024). This is a key indicator of actual settlement currency. Given that the latest consumer spend at the end of 2025 amounts to $55.5 trillion, of which the American consumer is now $17.9 trillion, US consumer spending accounts for 32.3% of the entire world! So, will BRICS displace the dollar? Come on. They said the same BS about the Euro. The United States is the LEAST socialist country, and that above all accounts for its Dominant Share of the world economy. Despite having only about 4% of the world’s population, the U.S. consistently accounts for nearly one-third of global consumer spending. This underscores the immense size and importance of the U.S. consumer market to the global economy and thus the dollar.
The dollar’s dominance does impact consumer spending globally because many goods that consumers buy locally are imported in other countries. If those imports were invoiced and paid for in dollars, fluctuations in the dollar’s value could affect local prices (inflation/purchasing power). This is why your key commodities like oil, metals, and grains are predominantly priced in dollars. Changes in the dollar affect the cost of energy and raw materials globally, impacting production costs and ultimately consumer prices for a vast array of goods. When the US is about 1/3rd of the world’s consumer spending and about 50% of all world trade, that is why they are priced in US dollars rather than the pesos.
The next HUGE area these one-issue analysts ignore is the Debt & Financial Markets. Countries and corporations borrowing in dollars face repayment costs affected by dollar strength, influencing their economies and potentially consumer spending power within those countries. This has often been one area that I get called into a lot. Currency Pegs/Reserves have been a critical issue over the years. Many countries manage their currencies relative to the dollar or hold significant dollar reserves, influencing their domestic monetary policy and economic stability. This includes Foreign Exchange Reserves. The dollar constitutes about 59% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks (IMF COFER data Q1 2024).
Approximately 75-80% of emerging market (EM) external sovereign bonds are denominated in US dollars. For corporate EM bonds, the share is slightly lower, around 60-70%. As I pointed out, before World War II, EMs would issue their debt in British pounds because that was where there was a market to sell their debt. Today, the pound has been replaced with dollars, and the FINANCIAL CAPITAL OF THE WORLD is now New York – not London or Paris.
Of the Sovereign Debt issues globally (Government Issuance), that works out to be 75-80% USD-denominated (e.g., IMF, BIS, and J.P. Morgan EMBI Index data). For example, as of 2023, over 75% of EM government bonds held by foreign investors were in USD. Turn to the corporate world. There we see 60-70% USD-denominated corporate debt issues (e.g., Bank for International Settlements data). This is even higher in sectors like commodities or multinationals.
New York City is unequivocally the world’s leading global financial center, and its banks play a dominant role in key aspects of international banking. This ensures the dollar’s role in global transactions. The vast majority of international trade and finance is conducted in USD. NYC banks are at the heart of that system. On a clearing basis alone, the Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS) in NYC clears roughly $1.5 trillion daily in cross-border USD payments. That represents a massive share of global USD flows.
Then there is the Correspondent Banking network. Major NYC banks act as correspondent banks for thousands of banks worldwide, facilitating their international USD transactions. Investment Banking (Capital Markets) takes place in the heart of the NYC-based banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup) and this consistently dominates global aspects of Mergers & Acquisitions, Equity and Debt underwriting (IPOs, bond issuances), and Sales & Trading (especially of US Treasuries, the world’s most profound and most important bond market). Even if we look at the global investment banking fee revenue, you will find that more than 50% takes place in New York City.
Europe and Britain, along with India and Switzerland, cancelled their currency. The $500 and $1,000 Canadian banknotes were withdrawn from circulation and are no longer legal tender as of January 1, 2021. However, they can still be redeemed at banks or the Bank of Canada for their face value, and they may hold additional value for collectors. Trump has proposed bringing back the $500 bill. Yet, while Roosevelt stopped issuing high-denomination bills, they are still valid. This is a MAJOR issue that the dollar remains the reserve currency around the world – it is TRUSTED!!!!!! While 60% of all U.S. bills circulate abroad, about 80% of $100 notes dominate foreign holdings due to their high value and portability.
The dollar is involved in roughly 40-50% of trade invoicing, over 80% of trade finance, and about 46-48% of international payment settlements. Research has shown that allocating world commerce according to ownership rather than location results in the US having a trade surplus, not a deficit.
The dollar remains the undisputed dominant global reserve and transaction currency, involved in the vast majority of cross-border financial flows. All of the nonsense about “de-dollarization,” with some countries (like China, Russia, Brazil) increasing the use of other currencies in bilateral trade agreements, is a distraction. Such a shift is gradual and hasn’t significantly eroded the dollar’s overall global share, and cannot until the economic changes, and that will not come until AFTER 2032.
Anyone who says the BRICS are displacing the dollar cannot possibly have any experience in world finance.
Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Do you think the EU and Zelensky will yield?
PF
ANSWER: I believe Trump has made it clear that all support would be withdrawn. That includes intelligence. He has to play hardball. I think Trump told Merz no troops in Ukraine. I believe he knows that the EU, UK, NATO, and Zelensky cannot be trusted. I have been warning about the economic implications for the EU moving forward. It is disastrous. With economic growth at 0.5% and NATO demands 5%, you are looking at a European depression.
Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
I have to admit that what I have seen from the Western Press is nothing but absurd propaganda and complete ignorance of the concept of strategy. They love to say Trump failed after previously pushing for a ceasefire and threatening severe consequences for Russia if Putin did not stop the war. President Trump appeared to back off that demand. WHY? If I were Putin, there would be no way I would agree to a ceasefire because the last time that only opens a window to rearm Ukraine. These morons are complete idiots at best, may be able to play checkers, but certainly never chess. I do not see any intelligence commenting on any network with the slightest concept of strategy.
Trump offered a security guarantee, and Steve Witkoff had told CNN that Russia agreed to “Article 5-like” protections for Ukraine during Friday’s summit. This is precisely what I have been saying. Putin has been there since 1999, and he has shown ZERO interest in taking all of Europe. That is the NATO/NEOCON Bullshit that was true with Khruschev when it was a war of Communism vs Capitalism.
Every source I have says the same thing that Putin may be the most intelligent man on the world table. Even the declassified document from Bill Clinton, dated November 19, 1999, said the same thing.
The Neocon propaganda will not relent. They keep up this endless desire to conquer Russia. If all my sources say the same thing, surely Putin must understand the same thing. That is why if I were him, NEVER would I agree to a ceasefire. Trump repeatedly expressed optimism that “We’re gonna have a lasting peace” after his meeting with Putin. That is his desire. The Russian people also do not want war, just as the average European or American. Leaders – not the average person- create wars.
Even Field Marshall Goring testified to that at Nuremberg. That is how it always works. You have to bullshit the people, demonize your opponent, to manipulate people to think they are doing the right thing. It is always the same routine. A friend who works with veterans, at dinner, told me that working with World War II vets compared to Vietnam Vets is like night and day. The Vietnam Vets were lied to, abused, and were chemically poisoned. The high rates of cancer among Vietnam veterans are not coincidental. They are a direct consequence of widespread exposure to the dioxin-contaminated herbicide Agent Orange during their service. The carcinogenic properties of dioxin, combined with other risk factors prevalent during wartime service, have led to devastating health outcomes decades later. While the VA now provides compensation and healthcare for these service-connected illnesses, the human cost remains immense. I have been told that they are angry compared to World War II Vets who believed they saved Europe.
My sources do not believe Zelensky nor ANY European leader, and especially NATO, whose ONLY purpose in its existence has been to create war. You have NATO demanding 5% of GDP when the entire growth rate of the EU for 2024 came in at +0.5% (27 countries), whereas the growth rate for the whole of the Euro area was just +0.4% (EA20). This demand from NATO will fulfill our model forecasting for an economic decline into 2028. The EU is looking at war as its ONLY option; otherwise, the people will be storming their parliaments with this type of massive economic contraction.
Trump met with the European warmongers led by Sir Keir Starmer. The leaders of France, Finland, Germany, and Italy, alongside the heads of NATO, the real leader of the pack, as well as the EU, muscled their way into this meeting. All seven leaders said they will ALWAYS be on the side of Ukraine and that the conflict with Russia must end. All my sources have warned that they will stab Trump in the back in the blink of an eye. Trump agreed with the calls for “long-term” peace, but Europe is not genuine in this regard.
While Trump had promised Putin he would call after the meeting, he picked up the phone and called Putin during the meeting. I am thoroughly disgusted at the dishonesty of Europe in this regard, and they cannot be that stupid to think that the West did not organize this entire war. They obviously only care about clinging to power rather than actually representing the people. As I said all along, all they had to do was honor the Minsk Agreement, and there would never have been a war.
I am so glad I am 75 and not 18. But my greatest lament is for my grandchildren. Zelensky was a NeoNatzi pretending to be Christian, and he is Hitler 2.0 because Ukraine still celebrated Bandera as a hero who was engaged in ethnic cleansing. Ukraine should not be totally abandoned. They attacked the pipeline to Hungary, and when Hungary accused Ukraine of an “outrageous and unacceptable” attack that disabled a Russian oil pipeline supplying this NATO ally, Zelensky’s arrogant response was an outright lie – Russia had started the war. So Hungary should send its complaints to Moscow instead.
Many Ukrainians are still Neo-Nazis and hate Russians. They still march with images of the ethnic cleanser Bandara, who had Polish, Russians, and Jewish pregnant women cut open, removed their babies, and sewn in live cats. This has all been documented. This is our own fault. The CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis simply because they were also ethnically cleansing all Russians. They were NEVER prosecuted, so Uktaine is still invested with bitter ethnic hatred with ZERO chance of resolution.
Ukrainian Revolution (January–February 2014)
Protests turned violent in January 2014 after the government passed draconian anti-protest laws and police brutally dispersed demonstrators. The deadliest phase occurred from February 18–20th, 2014, when snipers and riot police killed over 100 protesters in Kiev, yet as Olive Stone demonstrated, it was the Ukrainians killing their own people because Victoria Nuland said the US would not intervene unless the protesters had been killed. Then on February 21st, 2014, Yanukovych fled Kyiv after signing a short-lived EU-brokered agreement. The next day, parliament voted to remove him from office.
The very next month, in May 2014, the Ukrainians began to attack Russians on the street, beating them and killing them. They wanted all Russians dead, and the Western Press turned a blind eye. The hatred in Ukraine of non-Ukrainians goes back to the ethnic cleansing they engaged in when they were Nazis. They hate Russians, along with all other minorities, they hate and do not trust. Make no mistake about it: if Russia loses, the Ukrainians will massacre all Russians in the Donbas territory, and the Western Press will never report anything. The West ignores the fact that the Ukrainians carried out a massacre of ethnic Russians who lived in Odessa as soon as the 2014 Revolution, and that is what started this entire civil war that the Western Press will not address.
Oleksandr Turchynov was installed by Victoria Nuland et el as the unelected Acting President of Ukraine (February–June 2014). His government ignored the killing of Russians in Odessa. When they moved to separate, it was no different than what took place in Chechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, with similar ethnic differences that plague the Balkans, as Bismarck warned back in 1888, he instituted this civil war, claiming it was a response to escalating violence orchestrated by pro-Russian separatists after the Odessa Massacre.
The 2014 Odessa Massacre of Russian-speaking civilians who were killed by the Ukrainians on the streets was the resurfacing of the Nazi Ethnic Cleansing. When the civilians fled for safety into the Trade Union Building, the nationalist Ukrainians burned them alive. That was the turning point. It revealed that the Donbas had to separate, for the Ukrainian hatred of Russians was out to annihilate every last one of them – not their submission to Kiev. Victoria Nuland told them to call it an anti-terrorist action because they sought a democratic solution to vote for their freedom.
The 2014 Odessa Massacre is ignored by the Western Press because they are too busy promoting World War III. For the first time in history, an organized massacre of civilians was carried out and even filmed by numerous people. The West was silent and cheered the deaths of Russian civilians. This has been documented in extraordinary detail, and the Ukrainians did not even fear any negative consequences in world opinion because the Neocons also hate Russians.
The historical record shows that Oleksandr Turchynov, as Acting President of Ukraine (February–June 2014), initiated the civil war, claiming that he was acting against terrorists simply because they were defending themselves, their language, which was then outlawed, and their religion.
Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, which was a strategic military base similar to the US base in Japan at Okinawa. Russian military personnel and equipment were located there. It was an invasion. Following the Odessa Massacre, the Russian population of the Donbas declared “independence,” leading to violent clashes with Ukrainian police. It was formally on April 13th, 2014, when Turchynov announced an Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) as the excuse to justify civil war. As Al Jazeera reported on April 13th, 2014, “Ukrainian security forces have launched an ‘anti-terrorist’ operation to end the grip of separatists on an eastern town, according to the country’s interior minister.”
There are just no independent journalists left in the West. Mainstream gets its talking points from the Neocons, including Fox News quoting the Institute for the Study of War, started by Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law. All you have to do is look at the press reporting in 2014. It was the UNELECTED government installed by Victoria Nuland and her Neocons, who then directed them to attack the Donbas to draw in Putin.
Here, the Associated Press states at the beginning, “Ukraine’s acting President,” meaning unelected, since the Ukrainian people NEVER voted for war. Ukraine had just gone through a revolution, but the Donbas wanted to split from Ukraine because they hated Russians who had lived in the Donbas and Crimea for hundreds of years. The media never looked at the facts or the truth and has constantly promoted World War III.
Vide
There was a peace deal, and that was all agreed to, that the Donbas would be allowed to vote and separate just as Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. That was the way out, and it was NOT Putin or Russia that killed that deal – it was the West, where Merkel admitted that they never intended to honor that peace deal. Yet the Western press constantly puts out the Nocon propaganda promoting war and claims it is Putin who cannot be trusted.
The press is hell-bent on promoting World War III and they do not give a shit about the people and assume that Russia can be defeated in the blink of an eye. They never consider that no war in history has unfolded as expected.
Zelensky claimed that Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits surrendering territory.
On top of all of that, Zelenskyy claimed that Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits surrendering territory or any territorial deals. In other words, there can be NO PEACE DEAL. No matter what they tell Trump, they will stab him in the back, and the computer will be correct again – WWIII is on the horizon.
All of the European leaders came to Washington to back Zelensky, that there will BE NO PEACE in Ukraine. They all met FIRST at the Ukrainian Embassy to strategize to get Trump to reject any peace deal, for they want to conquer Russia because the EU will collapse economically. These people are insane, and they are playing with billions of lives all for a failed EU government that was never designed correctly from the outset.
The models are starting to warn about Europe in the future. We still have Panic Cycle in 2026 in both our war models and in the Euro. Sources are reporting that NATO is feeding the propaganda that Russia is weak, they can be utterly destroyed, and these stupid European leaders think that war will never reach their soil. The excuse I have heard is that Putin would NEVER use nukes because it would blow back on him.
As the Telegraph just wrote:
“Sir Keir Starmer and the leaders of Europe have agreed to stand united. Defying Vladimir Putin’s bloody imperialism, they will back to the hilt Volodymyr Zelensky’s insistence that he will not trade land for peace.
Except there is one small problem. Instead of presenting their ironclad unity to the Kremlin, they’ll be doing so to Donald Trump, urging him to impose further sanctions on Russia and not to cave to more of Putin’s demands.”
There is ABSOLUTELY no intent ever to have peace with Russia – NEVER!
When we are dealing with the direct threat of the total destruction and breakup of Russia, I would be pushing every single button if their intent is total destruction.
We have Panic Cycles in Both War & the Euro for 2026
These European Leaders with Zelensky will Stab Trump in the Back to Ensure We Get WWIII
originally on Posted Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
You are the carbon that they wish to eliminate. “You will eat bugs,” as the infamous Klaus Schwab line goes, was merely the beginning of what the globalists intent on ushering in the Great Reset have planned for the masses. Food production is bad for the environment, therefore, the people must resort to lab-created synthetic products.
All of this may sound like it is coming from a dystopian novel but the plans have been enacted. I reported on lab-grown meat facilities that are growing in number and popularity. The latest synthetic product is carbon butter—a butter-like substance made using carbon dioxide, hydrogen, and oxygen to synthesize fat molecules without animals, oils, or plants.
Savor, the startup company in Batavia, Illinois that is creating this product is backed by none other than Bill Gates. “So you’re using this gas right now to cook your food and we’re proposing that we would like to first make your food with— with that gas,” said Kathleen Alexander, co-founder and CEO of Savor.
“This is pretty novel, to be able to make food that looks and tastes and feels exactly like dairy butter, but with no agriculture whatsoever,” said Jordan Beiden-Charles, food scientist for Savor. “It’s really just our fat, some water, a little bit of lecithin as an emulsifier, and some natural flavor and color,” Beiden-Charles said.
“Traditional agriculture” leaves too large of a carbon footprint for these globalists who wish to control the food supply. Savor claims that synthetic butter will taste exactly like traditional dairy butter, and no one will know whether they’re eating the real deal or a lab-grown product. The company plans to release chocolates created with carbon butter ahead of the 2025 Christmas season, with retail stores expected to carry the product by 2027.
“Our plan can’t be to simply hope that people give up foods they crave. After all, humans are wired to want animal fats for a reason—because they’re the most nutrient-rich and calorie-dense macronutrient—in the same way we’re wired to crave sugar for an instant energy kick. What we need are new ways of generating the same fat molecules found in animal products, but without greenhouse gas emissions, animal suffering, or dangerous chemicals. And they have to be affordable for everyone.”
Gates goes on to say that palm oil is destroying the planet. “If animal fat is the superstar of some meals, then palm oil is the team player that can work to make almost all foods—and non-edible goods—even better,” he noted. A separate company funded by Gates called C16 is focused on lab-produced palm oils.
What impact will these synthetic products have on human health? No one knows. No one cares. Agriculture is taboo in their eyes and must come to an end.
Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey indicates that the number of migrants declined by 1.6 million since Trump took office, with the total foreign-born population falling by 2.2 million. The bureau estimates that the illegal migrant population in the US now stands at 14.2 million.
The true illegal population remaining in the US is unknown. FAIR estimated in March 2025 that the figure could stand at 18.6 million. The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) put the figure at 15.8 million, representing a 50% increase since 2021. The total foreign-born population reached 53.3 million in January 2025, according to most estimates, with illegal migrants composing around 29% of that figure.
Under Biden, new arrivals were averaging 120,000 per month, but over the last six months, America has seen the illegal population declining by 270,000 on a monthly basis. “The best evidence we have is that the illegal population is now falling at a rate that even exceeds the massive growth that we had in Biden’s four years,” CIS research director Steven A. Camarota said. Camarota indicated that if the current trend persists, the nation could see the total foreign-born population decline for the first time in nearly 100 years.
“It’s likely that this represents a savings in money for the taxpayer,” he said. “It will take pressure off schools and hospitals and other services. It’s likely it will potentially create job opportunities for Americans.”
Less than a year ago, cities were scrambling for housing solutions for migrants. State and city budgets had toppled, and the number of arrivals steadily soared to the point where it was absolutely fiscally impossible for any local, state, or even the federal government to adequately maintain the illegal population.
The open border policy was absolutely treasonous. This authorized invasion cannot be solved overnight. Some estimates believe it could take over a decade to deport everyone who entered under Biden-Kamala-Schwab, with some estimates believing it will take 30 years. Again, no one knows exactly who or how many people entered the borders, and this effort could halt under a new administration.
Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Children across Europe are learning firearm skills as governments prepare for an inevitable global conflict. Schools in Lithuania are implementing a tech-savvy course for children to learn how to operate drones, as the next war will not be fought with direct combat.
The defence and education ministries issued a joint statement stating that they plan to “expand civil resistance training” by teaching over 22,000 children how to fly drones. The program will be offered to children between eight and ten years old, with adjustments for grade level. Children will not only learn how to fly drones, but they will also learn how to build and manufacture simple drones and drone parts.
Adults throughout the nation will. We plan that 15,500 adults and 7,000 children will acquire drone control skills by 2028. In September we will open drone control centres in Jonava, Tauragė and Kėdainiai, and we will open six more drone training centres in other regions of Lithuania by 2028 and will also be expected to learn this new crucial survival skill,” Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė proclaimed.
The government plans to spend €3.3 million on the initial education program, which will include training equipment, control and video transmission systems, and a mobile app.
Ukraine is also teaching children UAV technology in the classroom and has implemented drone flying competitions and obstacle courses into the regular curriculum.
Russian children are learning the same technology. In fact, Russian defense companies are headhunting teenagers who exhibit advanced video game skills that could be translated into drone operation. Berloga, a video game launched in 2022, requires the player to defend themselves against swarms of bees using drones. Hundreds of thousands of Russian children play this game, and many earn extra credit on exams for successfully advancing in the game. The top players are recruited into advanced competitions where headhunters lurk to find the next generation of UAV operators. “We were forbidden to say that it was needed for the war, and we invented civilian applications. It’s a children’s program … A project must always have a dual purpose, especially when you’re a school student. It’s an unwritten rule I’ve observed at every competition,” one anonymous source told the Guardian.
European nations are preparing the youth for war. Those in power are well aware that this war is escalating to the point that it will last long enough for primary school-aged children to become future soldiers.
Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have to commend you. You are the only true analyst who has genuine sources. You have maintained that Putin has wanted peace, not to take all of Ukraine. A close friend of mine in the German government admitted that you have some of the best sources because you speak to all sides. He said that Trump got Putin to agree to NATO-like guarantees for Ukraine without joining NATO. They said precisely the opposite, and he confirmed that it has been the narrative from NATO. He said you are correct. My friend said you are highly respected and you have routinely refused to take any formal position in any government since the days of Ronald Reagan.
Thank you for being so genuine.
Alex
REPLY: Let me explain something. Academics in economics try to use formulas and are myopic in their perspective. They rely entirely on linear analysis and NEVER understand the implications of how we are all connected. For climate change, they used COVID to lock down the world, and every government was calling it a “lockdown,” which is exclusively an American prison term. That demonstrated that the entire COVID scam had a central point where everyone was quoting the exact phrase, no matter what country.
Then the Neocons wanted sanctions imposed on Russia under the same theory they always deploy, thinking that if they cut off the revenue of Russia, the country will collapse. NEVER do they realize that since we are all connected, they would undermine the German economy and ensure that Europe itself may collapse before Russia ever will. They even blew up NordStream and tried to blame that on Putin, which he could have just turned off the valve.
Bloomberg questioned Larry Summers, who wrote in the Washington Post on December 6th, 2015, admitting that economists cannot forecast the next recession.
“While the risk of recession may seem remote given recent growth, it bears emphasizing that since World War II, no postwar recession has been predicted a year in advance by the Fed, the White House or the consensus forecast.”
Roger Babson was not the only analyst to predict the 1929 stock market crash correctly regarding timing. He was the most famous and vocal of them all, while others were predicting a crash starting in 1926 to 1927 and lacked the timing. Famously warned of an “economic hurricane” in September 1929, stating “sooner or later, a crash is coming” at a business conference.
Roger Babson delivered his famous warning about an impending stock market crash on September 5, 1929, at the Annual National Business Conference in Babson Park, Massachusetts. The all-time high was September 3rd, 1929.
Roger Babson’s 1943 Revised Edition of “Looking Ahead: Fifty Years’ Work” (Harper & Brothers, New York) updated his earlier 1939 predictions to account for World War II. His key forecasts even predicted that the war would end by 1946 when it was still 1943. He also forecast a massive post-war economic boom fueled by pent-up demand, technological advancements from the war, and reconstruction. As a trader, he understood the boom bust cycle that economists try to eliminate. He warned there would be a boom that would lead to over-speculation and a significant bust (“panic” or depression) between 1950-1955, driven by excessive debt and inflation. He said that would then be followed by another period of strong growth.
From the Long-Term perspective, he argued that despite predicting cyclical downturns, he remained fundamentally optimistic about the long-term future (1943-1993). Babson laid out what he saw as unprecedented technological progress and efficiency across industries (manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, and communication). He also forecast a dramatic increase in productivity and standards of living.
By far, the most famous forecaster was the Economist Irving Fisher, who forecast with linear analysis that the market had reached an entirely new plateau as if it would NEVER go back down. This is why the economic forecasts have always been wrong because they have ZERO trading experience and do not understand society or market behavior.
Babson was a trader, like me. There is something about trading that is hard to explain. Nobody taught me how to trade, I somehow had a natural inherent instinct for trading. I could look at a chart and know where it would go next. Because I understood that instinctive trait, I could see the reasoning behind people like Babson and Jesse Livermore’s trading decisions.
Most people know I used to race cars in my younger days. Because I got divorced and kept my kids, my mother insisted it was not a good profession to pursue. So I quit to raise my kids. When I went to watch the new F1 Movie, I could see the crash coming and was white-knuckling the chair. If something is in your blood, you can’t get it out. I have a friend who offered to let me drive their F1 just for fun. Those days are gone. Friends laughed at me because I have a bunch of sports cars. I reply, I’m not married. If I were married, there would have to be 12.
The point is, trading is instinctive like racing. You have to pay attention to every car around you. If someone just slightly leans to the left an inch or two, that reveals what he is thinking. I see the same connection in trading where you MUST pay attention to all markets and economies around. You cannot forecast silver, never looking at any other market.
The ONLY academic I ever met who impressed me was Milton Friedman (1912-2006). I was speaking at a trading conference in Chicago. I can’t recall if it was Market Technicians or COPUTRAC. Milton came to listen to me. When I was finished, he walked up and said it was the best speech he had ever heard and that I was doing what he had just dreamed about. I was a trader – not an economist. Because of that meeting, Milton transformed me into a Reluctant Economist. Milton envisioned a floating exchange rate system in 1953. He saw how a floating exchange rate would impose restraints on the government. He was 30 years ahead of his time—no other academic thought out of the box like Milton.
When I was shocked when Milton explained that what I was doing was important in economics, Milton pointed out that Keynes did not have a degree in economics. Neither did Adam Smith, David Ricardo, nor every other famous name of the 19th century, since it was just a sideline as part of moral philosophy. Keynes was a mathematician. I believe that was where the economy took a drastic turn. It became all about math formulas detached from understanding cycles or how things worked. Milton was not looking at a raw math formula. He needed to understand what was behind the numbers. It was John Law (1671-1729), who was a trader on the floor of the Amsterdam bourse and laid out the fundamental law of supply and demand by sheer observation.
The John Law’s Paradox of Value, which I maintained, was later plagiarized and popularized by Adam Smith as the diamond-water paradox.It took a trade to observe this. The paradox became: Why do essential goods like water have low market value, while non-essential luxuries like diamonds command high prices?
John Law first articulated this in his 1705 work Money and Trade Considered, noting:
“Water is of great use, yet of little value; because the quantity of water is much greater than the demand for it. Diamonds are of little use, yet of great value; because the demand for diamonds is much greater than the quantity of them.”
William Paley (1743–1805) was a Cambridge philosopher/theologian (like Malthus and Keynes himself), so Keynes dubbed him the “first of the Cambridge economists” to trace a local intellectual lineage. Others had considered Malthus the first Cambridge economist. Keynes seemed to prefer Paley, who was a moral philosopher and theologian, best known for Natural Theology (1802). His Principles of Moral and Political Philosophy (1785) included economic ideas that impressed Keynes:
He argued that spending on luxuries could employ the poor, aligning with Keynesian “wasteful spending” as preferable to hoarding.
However, Paley was not a systematic economist. His work was ethical, not analytical like Smith’s.
It was Milton who transformed me from just a trader into a Reluctant Economist. I believe all because my father took the family to Europe in 1964 for the whole summer, which introduced me to currency. You had to convert your currency every time you crossed a border, but it taught me that MONEY is a mental yardstick of value. They would give you a quote in the local currency, and I had to convert that in my head to dollars to determine if the value was fair (before pocket calculators and smartphones).
All because I had a client who was a collector, Walter Zengerle, who knew I understood currency. The Bretton Woods fixed rate system collapsed in 1971, and FX futures started trading in 1972. They did not teach currency in school. This was all new. Walter came to me and asked if I would come to New York and look at a problem. He figured out it had to do with currency. Franklin National Bank started Mastercard. It was the first bank to fail because of the floating exchange rate system involving the Italian Lira. After that, every problem with currency turned into getting the guy who did Franklin National Bank.
As President Nixon called in Milton Friedman because he was the ONLY one to have contemplated a floating exchange rate system in 1953, nearly 30 years before. What I was observing in how markets traded, and just as in racing, the slightest nudge would indicate what that driver was thinking about, and how you had to watch every driver around you simultaneously, that was what I saw in trading as well. I was forged in the fire of the free markets. There was no place for math formulas or theories. You had to comprehend that you were in an F1 race in the financial system, and there was no room for mistakes or theories.
Thus, I was being called in during the 1985 formation of the G5, and just as Milton anticipated, the floating exchange rate system was indeed applying pressure in politics. I was very proud and honored to have been called in by President Reagan. The night of the 1987 Crash, my staff stayed for hours to prepare a special report to get on the president’s desk, so he had a real idea of what would come to pass. They were shocked when I said the low was in place and new highs would be made by 1989. I’m sure they thought I was being too optimistic to get a job. I stated, No charge. That seemed to confuse them even more.
As an old fellow analyst said, most thought I was completely nuts. I had spoken to a famous retail adviser that day and said Look, do not come out and predict a depression – PLEASE! He said, Come on, Marty. You’ve got to be kidding. He took the Great Depression route.
Many people thought that the forecast was not possible. But the very day of the low was precisely the turning point on the ECM to the very day (1987.8 = 292 days – 273 days until the end of September, leaving 19 days). My sources have always been the best because my clients are top-notch. We have the biggest and the smartest clients in the world who are not looking for some pretend guru – just the facts. No matter what country, we all share the same mindset. We all know that we are all connected and see the world as a whole, not pitting one party against another.
I have explained that I knew that the Neocons tried to prevent President Reagan from meeting with Gorbachev. They could not call him a communist, so they just said you can never trust a Russian. In their world, all they want is death and destruction. They cheer that as glory – they win.
I try very hard to beat my own computer. I have never succeeded so far. I am pushing to remove Zelensky. That MUST be the first step toward peace. I fear that NATO and the EU, with the UK, will make for a false flag operation. Economically, they are screwed, and to take any proposal from me to solve this crisis results in them losing their dream of absolute power. They designed the EU to ensure there was no democratic process in which unelected officials cannot be voted out of office.
The anti-democratic and Marxist agenda of the EU is collapsing just as Communism collapsed all by itself. This is why they need war, and I fear that the best we can do is postpone it until 2026. Zelensky can be removed, but not Ursula, who has NEVER been elected to anything. Zelensky is wiring out money every month, and that is why he tried to shut down the anti-corruption unit to cover his war crimes. He knows his days are numbered, and he cannot live in Ukraine; he will be assassinated after he no longer has US and UK bodyguards.
My father taught me well. He handed me Aristotle to read when I was probably 12 or 13. He said if he was good enough to teach Alexander the Great, he was good enough for me. The most valuable lesson my father taught, as he fought with General Patton from North Africa to Berlin, is NEVER judge your enemy by what you think. He will ALWAYS respond according to what he thinks. If you do not understand your enemy, you cannot defeat him.
It is crucial to speak to all sides. If you do not, you will never survive. Marcus Vetter, who shot the Forecaster movie of me, met some of the terrorists while filming the Heart of Jenin movie. He told me the same thing. These people will send some gullible kid to blow themselves up, but would never do that themselves.
Geopolitics = a Poker Game
Would you dare play a hand of poker and never even attempt to see how your opponent plays? If that is your strategy, you will lose. This is what the Neocons preach – never speak to the enemy. Their reasoning is straightforward. They are the aggressor, and they never want peace. But, like the terrorists Marcus encountered, they send other people’s children to die and would never themselves go into battle. I see no difference between them and some terrorist leader – both cowards.
It is the entire WORLD we must understand – not just domestic rhetoric.
I CANNOT ACCEPT ANY FORMAL POSITION IN ANY GOVERNMENT I WILL LOSE MY INDEPENDENCE, WHICH IS THE KEY
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