COMMENT: Marty, I respect that you do not want a Nobel Prize. But this is not about you. Putin just warned Germany that if it allows Zelensky to use NATO weapons to attack Moscow, he will attack Berlin. They said this is plain and simple. Everyone should be writing to nominate you for a Nobel Peace Prize for your model has called every turn in this debacle, and perhaps world leaders will listen to you if you get that Nobel Prize. I know you do not do this for notoriety or money. Hell, you don’t even sell advertising. Yield on this point. Please!
PY
ANSWER: I understand. But I think the Neocons would never allow them to nominate me. Go ahead. Flood them with letters. I bet it will have no impact. The Neocons are in complete control of Europe.
Posted originally on May 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
German troops have been permanently deployed for the first time since World War II. A brigade of 4,800 German soldiers is now positioned in Lithuania on NATO’s eastern flank. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is eager to wage war on Russia, stating, “The security of our Baltic allies is also our security.”
“Anyone who threatens an ally must know that the entire alliance will jointly defend every inch of NATO territory,” Merz said. The 45 Armored Brigade, headquartered in Rudninkai, will also include hundreds of civilian staff members and is expected to operate at full capacity by the end of 2027 with over 5,000 soldiers. Lithuania announced earlier this month that it is increasing its military spending to 6% of GDP, or approximately $1.2 billion.
Germany firmly believes it has unlimited funds to spend on the war. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul announced that Germany will spend 5% of its GDP on NATO, claiming the nation was offering “the five percent that President Trump demanded.” Merz, who served in the Bundeswehr, declared that “the government will in the future provide all the financing the Bundeswehr needs to become the strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Germany has already allocated a billion to the war in Ukraine. Two-thirds of the Bundestag Parliament voted to remove military spending from the Constitutional debt brake. The AfD opposed this plan, as did their opposite, Linke. The nation had implemented strict spending guidelines in its Constitution. They have been fearful of accumulating debt and previously had a fixed debt brake at 0.35% of GDP. Now, any amount over 1% of GDP will not face a borrowing cap. Therefore, Germany can now spend any amount on defense with no concern for the future.
History repeats because the desires of man never change. Unfortunately ,the models indicate that the third time will NOT be a charm.
Posted originally on May 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Questioning the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was illegal until now. The dawn of Make America Healthy Again has pulled back the curtain on the insidious Big Pharma industry’s human experiments on the general population during the pandemic. The FDA notified Pfizer and Moderna that they must expand warning labels to note the side effects of the vaccine.
Not only was it incomprehensible to the establishment to question the validity of the vaccine, but one could not mention the blatant side effects that were occurring worldwide after the untested vaccine was pushed onto the masses. The FDA, the same industry that mocked people for looking into holistic alternatives, has been forced to admit that people are dying as a result of the largest bio experiment in human history.
Vaccine manufacturers must now reveal the risks of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, and pericarditis, inflammation of the sac-like lining surrounding the heart. Specifically, males aged 16-25 are at risk of serious complications. Insurance claims found that myocarditis and pericarditis occurred in 1 in 125,000 doses from 2023-2024 in children and adults under 65. For males under 25, one in 250 recipients experienced complications.
These are merely the insurance claims, and rest assured, insurance will attempt to cite any other factor besides the COVID-19 vaccine. The “experts” still believe that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risk of heart failure, which is only one of numerous reported side effects.
The Department of Health and Human Services will no longer recommend the vaccine to children, teens, and pregnant women. Unbelievable that we permitted the “science” and government to force the global population to undergo this dangerous experiment. Those of us who refused to accept the vaccine were banished from society.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified information that found the Biden Administration had officially labeled vaccine skeptics “domestic violent extremists.” “Prominent narratives include,” the report stated, “the belief that COVID-19 vaccines are unsafe, especially for children, are part of a government or global conspiracy to deprive individuals of their civil liberties and livelihoods, or are designed to start a new social or political order.” Those who did not blindly follow the narrative were thought to be aligned with “QAnon” and a danger to national security. Free speech, especially online, was to be censored to protect the narrative, as the Biden Administration insisted that skeptics would become violent.
“Some of the examples that are focused on here have to do with those who oppose the COVID vaccine mandates, those who oppose the mask mandates, and parents who were concerned that their children going to school may be forcibly vaccinated with the COVID vaccine without the consent or awareness of parents,” Gabbard stated, as all independent thought surrounding COVID was considered dangerous.
The FDA will no longer automatically approve vaccines without clinical safety trials. We were told that we were endangering the public, conspiracy theorist right-wing extremist anti-vaxxers, and yet, those at the top deliberately misled the world and coerced them to put this unknown substance in their bodies. Biden pardoned Fauci, and the pharmaceutical companies were granted immunity. No one has been charged with a crime.
Posted originally on May 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The two certainties in life are death and taxes. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) recently discovered that the living are paying taxes to the dead. In fact, the agency recently eliminated a staggering 12.3 million Social Security recipients who would be over 120 years old if they were still alive today.
In March 2015, authorities were alerted that the Social Security database had not been updated for 6.5 million Americans over the age of 112. There were, in fact, only 35 Americans at or over the age of 112 in 2015. The Social Security Administration’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) believed that some Social Security numbers (SSNs) were being illegally used to open bank accounts, apply for jobs, and report wages. Over 4,000 E-Verify employment checks were sent out to people allegedly over the age of 112, and tens of thousands of false wage reports were used with these SSNs.
Ten years ago, when the matter made headlines, the Social Security Administration claimed it would be too costly to update its electronic database to create a death master file. The SSA would have needed to manually match death reports against current Social Security benefit recipients and input findings in an electronic file called Numident.
The Inspector General (IG) found that from 2008 to 2012, not a single death was recorded on the Numident. “SSA did not establish controls to annotate death information onto the Numident record of number holders who exceeded maximum reasonable life expectancies and were likely deceased,” the IG stated in its report.
This has been a massive waste of funds. In one example, from 2006 to 2011, SSNs assigned to people over the age of 112 accounted for $3.1 billion in wages, tips, and self-employment income. Lawmakers and regulators were aware of the problem but failed to act.
The issue received bipartisan support in 2015, although now it has become a partisan issue as Elon Musk and DOGE are involved. This issue has been costly. When the Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan programs came out, the SBA issued 3,095 loans to borrowers over 115, as they were marked as alive in the database. In one instance, a 157-year-old requested and received $36,000 in federal loans.
DOGE spent 11 weeks investigating the matter and finally marked 12.3 million individuals as “deceased.” Around 7.2 million were between 120 and 139 years of age, 4.8 million were between 140 and 159, and 124,000 SSNs were over the age of 160. It took only 11 weeks to correct a known issue that had been permitted to occur for a decade.
DOGE is still investigating, as there are “complex cases” where individuals have numerous birth dates on file. Removing migrants from Social Security will follow. This move comes after DOGE cut 7,000 positions at the Social Security Administration. Reports state that these 12.3 million Americans were only receiving a small portion of funds, as if that is acceptable. Taxpayers are monitored and patted down annually to ensure they’re reporting every penny of their earnings, while the government spends what they collect unchecked. Negligence is sugar-coated as oversight, as bloated governments cannot function properly.
Posted originally on May 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
We know we are approaching a major high in Bitcoin when Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), a publicly traded media company controlled by the U.S. president’s family, announced a plan to purchase $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin on Tuesday. This is a warning that we are in the throes of a typical bubble that will not end nicely.
As a trader, you come to understand that every market, no matter what, acts the same because it is NOT the instrument, be it tulips, stocks, commodities, or bonds – it is human nature and the madness of crowds. A crash becomes inevitable when 97% of the people are all long and they run out of fresh buyers. Like the Russian collapse, because all the bankers were long and the hedge funds, then they tried to sell and discovered that they were the market. When they try to sell, the broker says there is NO BID! Bitcoin is a trading vehicle like everything else. It is no exception to the rules of markets. It is just the next Tulip or Dot.COM or AI craze.
I would NOT invest in Trump Media and Technology Group. It appears to be a brief rally, but this decision is misguided and emotional. They are risking the company on a speculation and are all caught up in the typical bubble, assuming the majority is correct. Why not convert your cash to yuan or euros when your expenses and revenue are in dollars? I can’t even recall the number of companies that came crawling to me for help after making the same risky FX trades.
The problem remains, the majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is why no market is ever exempt from the inevitable boom and bust cycle. This is also when it only takes a minority to bring down a government or a market.
Posted originally on May 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Art can be a tangible commodity, but what happens when that art exists only as a concept? Italian artist Salvatore Garau created a statue entitled,Io Sono (“I Am”) that sold for $18,300. The sculpture itself is invisible.
“You don’t see it, but it exists,” Garau stated. The artist focuses on “immaterial sculptures” that exist by thought alone. Still, he believes that Io Sono must be displayed in a private home with climate control and provided with 5 x 5 ft of space. This piece of art could rise in value if consumers believe it to be worth more and are willing to pay more. The coverage this concept has received in the news has certainly caused it to become a conversation piece, and therefore, someone out there may be willing to spend more to have an invisible statue that exists as a concept.
The fine art market has become one of the most effective, sophisticated tools for laundering money. Unlike real estate, stocks, or precious metals, the art market is unregulated, unstandardized, and cloaked in confidentiality. It is considered upscale and a tool utilized by those who already have wealth and need a place to park it. Unlike financial instruments, which must pass through reporting requirements, art often changes hands privately, across borders, and without disclosure of the buyer or seller. In this case, the art does not even need to exist, and yet it still was sold through an official fine art auction house.
Art is not valued like stocks. There are no earnings, dividends, or tangible utility. There is only perception. A Picasso, a Basquiat, or a Warhol are not just artworks; they are safe havens for capital, especially for oligarchs, cartel bosses, and political elites looking to move funds discreetly. A $15 million painting hung in a Zurich vault is more secure and less traceable than a Swiss bank account, which is no longer secure.
Mar-A-Lago was once valued beneath Hunter Biden’s “art.” Hunter Biden’s artwork is estimated to be worth up to $500,000. His personal friend, Kevin Morris, purchased a few pieces and also gave him a loan of $2 million to cover Hunter’s late tax payments. Most of his buyers remain anonymous, but the known art collectors are all associated with the DNC. Hirsh Naftali, for example, was appointed by Joe Biden to be the Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad after he expressed interest in his son’s artwork.
Art as an asset is entirely subjective and based on confidence. It holds no inherent value but the public perceives its value and prices it accordingly. Art does not generate income nor does it create economic output. Art is purely speculative and becomes a bubble when confidence peaks.
We saw this in the late 1980s Japanese bubble when Japanese investors were buying Van Goghs and Monets at astronomical prices. That bubble burst along with their real estate and the Nikkei index. We saw it again leading up to 2007–2008, and now, as the sovereign debt crisis looms globally, we’re beginning to see the same flight again. Art can act as a temporary store of value unless you have some extremely rare piece from a renowned artist.
Governments are keen to tax everything, and one day, that could include art. The secrecy and mystery that once caused art to be a store of wealth could collapse if governments act. Since art is primarily used as a temporary asset by those who are already at the top, governments are not yet looking in that direction. Once capital gains taxes are implemented, it will be game over for much of the art world.
Posted originally on May 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The US represents only 5% of the global population, and yet, Americans are responsible for 25% of all global consumption. Americans consume around 25% of the world’s oil, 27% of global aluminum, 23% of all coal, and 19% of copper. Nations are still standing in line to offload their goods to Americans.
There are more people on the continent of Europe than in America, but they spend significantly less per capita. Total consumer spending for the entire 27-bloc European Union reached $9.589 trillion in 2023, and with a population of around 450 million, this came out to around$21,300 per person. This figure went down to €18,768 in 2024. Per capita consumer spending in the US hit $51,500 last year, as the average American spends twice as much as the average European.
China’s middle class is growing and will one day surpass America. At the moment, the average Chinese person spends 28,227 yuan or $4,800. Their population size rivals Europe and America, but the money is simply not there. Spending rose 5.3% in China from 2023 to 2024, when you account for inflation, it rose around 5.1%. Even if one adjusts for purchasing power parity (PPP), the US spending per capita is 7X greater than China’s.
Private consumption averaged 55.2% of Europe’s GDP from 1995 to 2024. Spending remains the single largest factor in the European economy. Economic uncertainty and inflation are causing consumers to spend less and this will severely harm Europe’s economy. Even small changes in consumer spending can offset the European economy.
Nations always go to war when they need funding. Russia is the wealthiest nation in terms of natural resources. This conquest is the same as when Japan went into Manchuria; it is why Europe wants to go into Russia.
Posted originally on May 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Canada has expanded its Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) program to include children and teenagers. A Special Joint Committee on Medical Assistance in Dying submitted a report to the House of Commons in February 2023 that recommended the government begin extending MAID services to “mature minors” WITHOUT parental authorization. Carney’s government is allegedly considering this blatant eugenics program that would allow the government to euthanize children.
Common law dictates that a “mature minor” is a person under 18 years of age who is deemed competent to make informed decisions about their own healthcare. There is no set age for which a minor is “mature.” Instead, healthcare providers assess each patient on a case-by-case basis and decide who is “mature” enough to make decisions regarding their treatment plan. Parents must accept their child’s autonomy to accept or deny treatment if their child’s health care provider gives them the authority.
The Canadian government has already created a coloring book for children entitled “Me and My Illness.”First, they created a coloring book for children to process the potential death of their loved ones through medically assisted suicide, and then they created a suicide coloring book for CHILDREN. The book encourages children to focus on their pain, highlighting how their illness isolates them from society and makes them different. Later in the book, children are provided a “decision-making toolkit” explaining “small” and “big” medical decisions.
What does dying feel like?
“You might worry that dying is painful. The way a person’s body stops working depends on their illness and where it is in the body. Many illnesses cause the body to slow down gradually until it stops. Other illnesses make the body stop more quickly. Usually, the stopping does not seem to be painful, but some people feel pain from their illness even when they are dying. Doctors and nurses do their best to help people feel as comfortable as they can. Every illness and every person is a little bit different.”
The book is absolutely atrocious and heartbreaking with journal prompts asking: “If you were to die, how would you like people to remember or celebrate you? Write or draw your ideas in your sketchbook.”
A flyer has been circulating Canada that promotes MAID for children and teens without parental consent. “One in 10 people will wait more than 4 months for counselling. The waiting period for MAID is only 3 months,” the flyer notes.
The Canadian government continues to expand what ailments fall under MAID. Beginning in March 2027, the government will begin eliminating people with mental illnesses that are treatable. The government will also begin euthanizing those “too poor to live with dignity,” as well, but the conservatives are considered the Nazis.
Mark Carney is following the World Economic Forum handbook to a tee, picking up where Justin Trudeau left off and working to reduce the population. Children and teens have undeveloped brains and cannot possibly comprehend the recourse of suicide. The government has already been sending MAID advocates to hospitals across the country to encourage sick patients with often treatable ailments to end their lives. Parents will have absolutely no say if their child lives or dies as the Canadian government stoops to a new deplorable level of pure evil.
Posted originally on May 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: What is your view of Frank Knight’s view of risk versus uncertainty?
HL
ANSWER: Frank Knight, an influential economist and founder of the Chicago School from which Milton Friedman emerged. He is known for his work on risk and uncertainty, and he articulated a key distinction between the two concepts in his 1921 book “Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit”. The widely cited quote is:
“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term ‘risk,’ as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different.”
Knight argued that risk refers to situations where outcomes are unknown but probabilities can be calculated (e.g., gambling or insurance), making it measurable and manageable. On the other hand, uncertainty describes scenarios where probabilities cannot be determined due to a lack of historical data or predictable patterns (e.g., unprecedented market shifts). This distinction underpins his theory of profit, where entrepreneurs bear uncertainty (not mere risk) as a source of potential economic reward.
This framework remains foundational in economics and decision-making theory, emphasizing the role of unquantifiable unknowns in shaping entrepreneurial behavior and market dynamics. I, being a trader rather than an academic, however, disagree insofar as nothing is truly UNCERTAIN. The problem with classical economists is that they have not explored ancient history, assuming the data is inconsistent or nonexistent. Then this view is compounded by the idea that the economy is random, and we can manage it, which was first presented by Karl Marx.
I have said many times that when I was in school, in economics class, they said it was random, and this government can smooth out the booms and busts under Keynesian Economics to prevent another Great Depression. Then I went to Physics class and was told that NOTHING is random. I concluded that someone was lying, and it was the economists. They refused to investigate the business cycle and presumed they could manage it.
Anyone who had actual experience disagreed with the classic economists. Arthur Burns was the Fed Chairman when Bretton Woods broke. He concluded that the business cycle existed and always won. Then there was Paul Volcker, the next Fed Chairman. Paul also came to the same conclusion that the business cycle existed despite the classic economic theories.
I had a conversation with Paul Vocker, who told me my Economic Confidence Model was correct and agreed that the business cycle was about 8 years. This flies in the face of classical economists.
I knew that Roman coins were attainable. I bought my first one for $10 in the 1960s. When they removed the silver from the coinage in 1865, I saw the connection to the very same event that marked the start of the Third Century Crisis.
When I assembled the coinage to answer a gnawing question: How did Rome fall? Was it like a 747 coming in for a landing gradually, or was it abrupt? I discovered it fell from 50 %+ silver to 0.2% in just 8 years.
I discovered no such thing as random walks down the street. That is put out by people who cannot see the cycles before their eyes. Turn the economy down, and politics will always flip, no matter who is in power. The EU is fighting to stay alive, so they are interfering in elections to defeat anyone who is anti-EU. This will only blow up in their faces. The economy will always force a response, and human nature has never changed in 6,000 years. Whoever is in power will always respond similarly to the same old economic pressure.
Read Hammurabi’s Legal Code. It is wage and price controls in response to an economic crisis. Even the Bible outlawed socialism. Attacking the rich and class warfare has been a problem since ancient times and it has always resulted in the collapse of such economies. Nothing has changed – ever. So, where is the UNCERTAINTY?
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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