Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Apr 1 2026

California’s $91 Billion Warning


Posted originally on Apr 1, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Leaving California

California is now facing the consequences of policies that ignore reality. Between 2019 and 2023, the state lost a staggering $91.4 billion in income as residents relocated elsewhere, with another $11.9 billion leaving in just a single year. This is not a minor shift. This is a structural problem that is accelerating, not stabilizing.

What is driving this exodus is not complicated. California has one of the highest income tax rates in the country at 13.3%, and it treats capital gains as ordinary income. At the same time, housing costs remain among the highest in the nation, with median home prices still hovering well above $700,000 in many regions and far higher in major metro areas. When you combine taxation and cost of living, you create an environment where even high earners begin to question whether it is worth staying.

What is unfolding now is not just population loss. It is the migration of productive capital. Texas alone absorbed nearly $28 billion from California migrants. That represents businesses, investments, and long-term economic activity shifting away from California’s control. These are not low-income households leaving. These are higher earners, entrepreneurs, and investors who contribute disproportionately to the tax base.

You can see this reflected in the composition of those leaving. Higher-income households account for a significant share of outbound income, meaning a relatively small number of people are responsible for a very large portion of the loss. That is what makes this trend so dangerous. When even a small percentage of top earners relocate, the financial impact is magnified.

At the same time, California continues to face budget pressures despite high tax rates. The state has swung from large surpluses to deficits in a very short period, highlighting just how dependent it has become on a narrow base of high-income taxpayers. When that base begins to shrink or becomes more volatile, revenue becomes unpredictable.

There is also a broader business impact that is often overlooked. Companies are increasingly choosing to expand or relocate operations outside of California, citing regulatory burdens, energy costs, and taxation. When businesses leave or scale back, they take jobs and future investment with them, reinforcing the cycle of decline.

The danger is that once this process begins, it feeds on itself. As the tax base erodes, governments attempt to compensate by increasing taxes further or introducing new policies aimed at capturing more revenue. That approach does not solve the problem. It accelerates it. Each new measure signals to remaining taxpayers that conditions are unlikely to improve.

California is no longer operating in isolation. It is competing directly with other states that are actively positioning themselves to attract wealth. Lower taxes, lower costs, and fewer regulatory hurdles are not just policy choices. They are competitive advantages. This is why the trend continues despite efforts to counter it. Governments can pass new laws, increase spending, or attempt to attract investment, but if the underlying environment remains unfavorable, capital will continue to move. California is no longer the exception. It is becoming the example.

Apr 1 2026

UK Rental Prices Reach All-Time High


Posted originally on Mar 31, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Housing

According to the latest figures, rents in the UK have now reached 36.1% of average earnings, the highest level ever recorded. At the same time, average monthly rents have climbed toward roughly £1,300–£1,400 depending on the dataset, with London far exceeding that level. Once housing consumes more than one-third of income, discretionary spending collapses, and the broader economy stalls.

What the press consistently ignores is that this crisis is not being driven by “greedy landlords” or speculation. It is a supply crisis that has been building for decades. Britain now has roughly 1.6 million fewer affordable social homes than it did in 1981. That is a staggering figure. Governments have simply failed to replace what they once built, and then they layered on regulations, taxes, and energy mandates that drove private landlords out of the market.

We have already seen approximately 200,000 rental properties disappear in just a single year as smaller landlords exit due to rising costs, taxes, and regulatory burdens. This is exactly how governments create shortages. They attack the supply side and then pretend to be shocked when prices rise. It is the same pattern we see repeatedly throughout history, whether in Rome, France, or modern Europe.

At the same time, the cost of borrowing has risen sharply. Interest rates surged after 2022, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for many. That forced more people into the rental market, increasing demand precisely as supply was shrinking.

The situation is further complicated by the broader cost-of-living crisis. Real incomes have been under pressure for years, with essential expenses rising faster than wages. When you combine declining real income with rising housing costs, you are effectively squeezing the middle class out of existence. This is not sustainable, and it feeds directly into the civil unrest cycles we have been warning about going into 2026 and beyond.

Even when we see temporary relief, such as a slight slowdown in rent growth or a modest increase in housing supply, it does not solve the structural problem. The system is broken. You cannot regulate your way out of a supply shortage. You cannot tax your way to affordability. And you certainly cannot restore confidence by constantly shifting the rules.

What is unfolding in the UK real estate market is part of a much larger global trend. Governments are losing control of their economies because they refuse to address the real issue, which is the sovereign debt crisis and the need to maintain confidence. Instead, they are turning to regulation, digital oversight, and intervention, all of which only accelerate the decline.

Real estate has always been a reflection of confidence. When people believe in the future, they invest, they build, and they expand. When confidence collapses, they retreat, supply contracts, and prices rise in a distorted manner. That is precisely what we are witnessing today in Britain.

Categories:BRITAINReal Estate

Apr 1 2026

Sending Children to War — History Repeats in Iran


Posted originally on Mar 31, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Iranian child soldier during Iran-Iraq war, 1980. [1453x1058] : r/HistoryPorn

There are moments in history that expose the true nature of a regime, and what we are seeing now coming out of Iran is one of them. Reports indicate that the government is once again preparing for the possibility of deploying children into conflict, even going so far as to produce uniforms sized for minors. This is not propaganda, this is preparation. When a state begins organizing for the use of children in war, it is no longer operating within any civilized framework. It is operating purely on ideology and survival.

According to recent reports, Iran has been mobilizing youth structures tied to the regime, signaling that minors could be drawn into the conflict if escalation continues. The fact that children’s uniforms already exist tells you everything you need to know.

Iran is no stranger to putting children in harm’s way. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the regime openly used child soldiers. They sent young boys to clear minefields, often with nothing more than a plastic or brass “Key to Heaven” around their necks, promising them entry into paradise if they died. Thousands of children were sacrificed under the banner of ideology.

Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Training Children for War - NCRI

Iran drove Iraqi forces out by 1982. The conflict could have ended years earlier, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. Instead, Ayatollah Khomeini chose to prolong the war in pursuit of a broader ideological goal, the overthrow of the Iraqi Baathist regime and the expansion of the revolution. That decision led to years of unnecessary bloodshed, including the deaths of countless children sent to the front lines.

And now we are seeing the same mindset re-emerge. When a government begins to prepare children for war, it is not because it has run out of options. It is because it prioritizes ideology over human life. It reflects a system that is willing to sacrifice its own population to maintain power or pursue a broader geopolitical objective. That is always the hallmark of regimes that are under extreme pressure, both internally and externally.

The Economic Confidence Model has been warning that we are entering a period of rising geopolitical instability into 2027 and beyond. What we are seeing in Iran fits that pattern precisely. As tensions escalate, governments begin to take more extreme measures, and the line between military necessity and ideological fanaticism begins to disappear. The use of children in war is not a sign of strength. It is a sign that a regime is willing to cross any boundary to survive.

Once a government begins sacrificing its own future generation, it has already entered a dangerous phase. Iran has done this before. The evidence is undeniable. The only question now is whether the world will recognize the warning signs, or once again look back years from now and ask how such a tragedy was allowed to happen again.

Apr 1 2026

Grandmother Falsely Imprisoned Thanks to AI Biometrics Fail


Posted originally on Mar 31, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Red Light Camera

A grandmother, Angela Lipps, was arrested at gunpoint in her own home after facial recognition software flagged her as a suspect in a bank fraud case in North Dakota, a state she had never even visited. Authorities relied on AI-generated matches from surveillance footage and compared those results to her driver’s license and social media photos. That was enough to issue a warrant.

She was jailed for months, extradited over 1,000 miles, and held without meaningful review until her attorney presented simple bank records proving she was in Tennessee at the time of the alleged crime.

The case collapsed almost immediately, but by then she had lost her home, her car, and even her dog. This is what happens when governments begin to trust machines more than basic investigation.

AI is not intelligence. It is pattern recognition. It compares images, identifies similarities, and produces probabilities. It does not understand context, intent, or truth. Yet those probabilities are now being treated as evidence. That is where the system breaks down. Once a machine flags someone, the burden shifts onto the individual to prove innocence rather than on the state to prove guilt.

We have already seen this before. There have been multiple cases across the United States where facial recognition systems misidentified individuals, leading to wrongful arrests. In each case, the same pattern emerges. The software produces a match and investigators build a case around it instead of questioning it. Basic verification steps are skipped because the assumption is that the system is correct.

The problem is that people assume AI is the end-all, be-all of supreme knowledge. Every output is treated as fact. That is how you end up with someone sitting in jail for months for a crime they did not commit.

This ties directly into what we are seeing more broadly with artificial intelligence. Even inside the tech industry, there are growing concerns about how these systems are being deployed. The recent resignation of a senior figure at OpenAI raised alarms about the pace at which AI is advancing compared to the safeguards in place. Concerns were expressed about the risks of misuse, lack of oversight, and the potential for these systems to be weaponized in ways that were never intended. When those closest to the system begin warning about its misuse, it should not be ignored.

Governments are already expanding surveillance, tracking financial transactions, and building digital identity frameworks. AI becomes the engine that ties all of this together. It allows systems to flag individuals automatically, at scale, without human judgment.

Once that infrastructure is in place, the implications are enormous. You can be flagged, investigated, or even detained based on data patterns that may be incorrect. And by the time the mistake is discovered, the damage is already done.

What happened in Tennessee is a warning of what happens when accountability is removed from the process. It took minutes to prove she was innocent. It took months for the system to admit it was wrong. This is the risk of replacing judgment with algorithms.

Mar 30 2026

Finland to Audit US NATO Weapon Deliveries


Posted originally on Mar 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

PatriotMissile

The latest report underscores growing concern within NATO itself over whether weapons intended for Ukraine are actually reaching their destination, as Finland has now moved to audit deliveries amid uncertainty. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington “is not redirecting NATO-purchased weapons for Ukraine to the Middle East,” but notably “stopped short of ruling out the possibility.” At the same time, Donald Trump offered a broader and more revealing explanation, saying the United States is “constantly moving weapons between different parts of the world.”

The question of why NATO is fully committed to Ukraine yet far more restrained when it comes to Iran is a window into how modern geopolitics actually functions beneath the surface. What you are witnessing is not about morality, democracy, or even alliances in the traditional sense. It is about capital flows, regional control, and the strategic priorities of those directing policy behind the curtain.

From everything I have written over the years, the war in Ukraine has always been about Europe, not Russia. The objective has been to isolate Russia economically while simultaneously forcing Europe into dependency. By cutting off Russian energy and pushing sanctions, the EU effectively destroyed its own industrial base. Capital began to flee Europe and flow into the United States. That was the real outcome. The war became a mechanism to redirect capital flows, and that is why NATO is “all in.” Ukraine is the lever being used to reshape Europe.

Iran is a completely different equation. A direct, unified NATO engagement against Iran would risk destabilizing the entire Middle East in a way that cannot be contained. You are dealing with the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil flows. Any escalation there immediately impacts energy prices worldwide and risks triggering a broader regional war involving multiple actors. This is not Ukraine, where the conflict can be geographically contained. This is a choke point for the global economy.

Historically, NATO has always been strongest when operating within a clearly defined regional framework tied to Europe. Ukraine fits that model. Iran does not. Iran sits at the crossroads of competing interests involving not just the West, but also China, Russia, and regional powers. A unified NATO front against Iran would risk fracturing the alliance itself, particularly as Europe is already under severe economic strain. They simply do not have the capacity to sustain another major conflict.

NATO ECM A

There is also the issue of public tolerance. Europe can justify its involvement in Ukraine under the narrative of defending its borders and countering Russia. That argument resonates politically within NATO countries. Iran does not present the same narrative framework. A direct war with Iran would be far more difficult to sell domestically, especially given the economic consequences that would follow.

But the real underlying factor, as I have consistently explained, is confidence. The global system is being held together by confidence in governments, currencies, and institutions. Ukraine has been used as a controlled conflict to manage that system, to justify spending, to redirect capital, and to consolidate political power. Iran represents an uncontrolled variable.

Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen reinforced Europe’s role in undying support for Ukraine. “What has been promised to Ukraine must reach Ukraine,” Häkkänen stated. “We constantly assess how funds are being spent, and we believe the mechanism works. Of course, if problems arise, we will have to review this.”

Despite decades of the United States funding and effectively underwriting NATO’s military power, Europe has largely refused to join direct offensive operations against Iran. President Trump openly criticized NATO allies for failing what he called a “loyalty test,” pointing out that after trillions spent defending Europe, the alliance was “not there” when the United States needed support in the Middle East. The response from Europe has shown that NATO is not united.

This is where the future of NATO itself comes into question. If the United States continues to shoulder the financial burden while Europe selectively participates only when it serves its own interests, then the entire premise of the alliance begins to break down. Trump has already made it clear that alliances must provide tangible benefits, not just political symbolism. If Washington concludes that NATO is no longer a mutual defense pact but a one-sided obligation, then the pressure to reassess or even exit will intensify. Alliances do not collapse overnight, they erode when confidence disappears and when one side no longer sees value in maintaining the relationship. Should that realization take hold in the United States, the possibility of stepping back from NATO is no longer unthinkable.

Categories:War

Mar 30 2026

Virginia Permits ADULT MIGRANT MEN to Attend High School


Posted originally on Mar 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Reports emerging out of Virginia confirm that migrants, including those in the country illegally, are being allowed to remain in high schools up to the age of 22, placing adult individuals into classrooms with minors. What is being justified under the banner of “education access” has effectively created a loophole where grown adults can legally sit alongside teenage students. Yet another example of Democrats prioritizing open borders above all else.

We now have a situation where individuals far beyond what any reasonable person would define as “school age” are being kept inside high schools, funded by taxpayers, and justified under a complete distortion of the law. The 1982 Supreme Court decision was meant to ensure that children, not adults, would not be denied a basic education. It was about minors, about protecting kids, not opening the door for fully grown adults to sit in classrooms with 13- and 14-year-olds. Yet that is exactly what this has become. Virginia Code § 22.1-5 was intended to help non-English-speaking students integrate. Meanwhile, American youth legally must leave public school by the age of 20, or an extra two years after traditional graduation. Policymakers have twisted a child-protection measure into a loophole that now places adult migrants, including those here illegally, into environments designed for minors. You now have 12-year-olds sitting in classrooms alongside adult men from entirely different backgrounds and cultures, and we are told this is normal. It is not. This is a fundamental breakdown in the purpose of the law and a reckless abandonment of the very students it was meant to protect.

Virginia Code § 22.1-5(D) explicitly states: “School boards may accept and provide programs for students for whom English is a second language who entered school in Virginia for the first time after reaching their twelfth birthday, and who have not reached 22 years of age on or before August 1 of the school year. No tuition shall be charged such students, if state funding is provided for such programs.”

What could go wrong? In Fairfax County, a 19-year-old migrant has been accused of sexually assaulting multiple female classmates. These young girls were assaulted in the confines of their school, a place that should be a safe haven. Our children are no longer protected by the law. In fact, this new legislation outright puts children in danger and denies students the ability to learn in a safe environment. Even unvetted migrants who do not have proper documentation are permitted to attend high school in Virginia so long as they claim to be under 22. Any grown, able-bodied, working-age man can now collect government benefits under the guise of desiring a high school diploma.

Virginia lawmakers are actively moving to codify policies that ensure access to public education regardless of immigration status. The state receives funding for ESL programs, and open border policies are emboldened. Despite the molestation charges and obvious risks, lawmakers in Virginia are not concerned about the safety of children.

Parents cannot pick up their children from school without presenting proper ID and signing waivers. They cannot even walk inside the school without going directly to the main office where they are vetted. Now, schools are being asked to simply accept stated ages and backgrounds at face value while permitting ANY semi-youthful presenting individual to attend classes. You are effectively placing unverified adults into daily contact with minors and hoping nothing goes wrong. These migrant students will likely be older than the teachers in many classrooms. No serious institution would operate this way, yet this is now being normalized by the far-left who are using children as political social experiments.

Schools are supposed to be controlled environments where minors learn among peers. Now, children will be placed in proximity to adults whose backgrounds, histories, and intentions are completely unknown. No parent sends their child to school expecting that the system has quietly redefined who belongs in that environment. The Democrats are effectively weaponizing public schools, endangering children, and forcing taxpayers to foot the bill. What horrors must occur before this law is repealed?

Parents send their children to school under the assumption that it is a controlled, safe environment. You cannot maintain a functioning society if people no longer trust its institutions to provide basic safety.

Mar 30 2026

Iran Introduces 10 Million Rial Banknote


Posted originally on Mar 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

r/economicCollapse - Iran central Bank has introduced a 10 million rial banknote

What Iran is doing right now is something we have seen repeatedly throughout history whenever a currency begins to die. Governments start issuing larger and larger banknotes because the existing denominations no longer function in daily life. This took place in the Weimar Republic hyperinflation, where trillion-mark notes were printed, and again in Zimbabwe hyperinflation, where 100 trillion dollar notes became commonplace. The pattern is always the same. The currency loses purchasing power, prices rise uncontrollably, and instead of fixing the underlying problem, governments simply add more zeros. Iran introducing a 10 million rial note is the same historical signal that the currency is worthless.

The introduction of a 10 million rial banknote, now the highest denomination in the country’s history, is being presented as a practical measure to “facilitate transactions.” In reality, it is an admission that the currency itself has failed. When a nation must print larger and larger notes just to keep commerce functioning, that is not stability, it is a monetary breakdown.

The new 10 million rial note is reportedly worth roughly $7 USD at current exchange rates. A “million” denomination has become meaningless. People no longer think in terms of value but in terms of survival. The numbers grow larger, but purchasing power collapses.

The reality on the ground confirms this collapse in confidence. The Iranian rial is now trading around 1.4 to 1.6 million per US dollar on the open market, levels that reflect a dramatic erosion in trust. At the time of the 1979 revolution, the exchange rate was roughly 70 rials per dollar, meaning the currency has lost tens of thousands of times its value over time. Even in the past year alone, the decline has accelerated, showing that this is not a slow deterioration but a rapid phase of collapse.

Official figures place inflation near 48–50%, with food prices rising even faster. This is where the destruction becomes visible to the average person. Prices rise faster than wages, savings are wiped out, and the middle class disappears. When you combine a collapsing currency with inflation approaching 50%, what you are really seeing is purchasing power being annihilated. People are not becoming poorer because they earn less. They are becoming poorer because their money no longer holds value.

What is even more telling is the government’s response. Before introducing the 10 million note, they rolled out a 5 million rial note worth only a few dollars. First, the denominations increase incrementally, then they accelerate as confidence disappears. These are all clear signs of a failed currency.

There have long been reports of people rushing to withdraw cash, fearing further currency weakness and potential restrictions. The public knows their currency is worthless. People have withdrawn whatever they could, spent it quickly, or converted it into hard assets or foreign currency.

The underlying cause here is not mysterious. Iran has been financing deficits through money creation for years while facing sanctions and internal corruption. This combination destroys confidence in both the government and the currency. Printing money does not create wealth. It simply dilutes what already exists.

When governments lose control of their finances, they always turn to the printing press. But printing money does not solve the problem. The introduction of a 10 million rial note is not a solution. It is a symptom. Iran is now in a phase where the currency is no longer trusted, and  the entire economic system is at risk.

Mar 29 2026

Was Russia Holding Iran Back? 2024 Interview


Posted Mar 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  
Mar 29 2026

Forecasts from 2019 – Bullish on Dow – Almost Time for Gold


Posted originally on Mar 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Interview published on June 27, 2019:

“The game is on. Martin believes that gold’s recent advance was just the opening salvo. He wouldn’t be surprised to see it take a hit for now and then come screaming back to start making new highs. As Martin says, people are starting to wise up to the monetary debasement game. Confidence in the Government Con, as low as it might be now, is going to all but disappear. And that’s bad news for paper money of all descriptions. Following this line of reasoning it’s not hard to understand why the Dow will eclipse its current highs and hit 35000 in the not too distant future. Loss of confidence will keep money pouring into real assets, and the stock market still represents shares in somewhat real enterprises, although how real is open to debate. It’s all setting up for 2020 and Martin says the computer is predicting an outright Trump win. Let’s see what happens next!”

“The World According to Martin” compiles over a decade of interviews between Kerry Lutz and Martin Armstrong. Countless forecasts have come to fruition, including situations that seemed improbable if not impossible at the moment. Socrates’ unremarkable ability to decode patterns is truly unparalleled by any analyst or system.

KerryLutzBook
ArmstrongEconomicCodeBook
Mar 28 2026

Netanyahu’s War


Posted originally on Mar 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |