Posted originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
PrimaLend Capital Partners filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, beckoning the start of America’s personal loan crisis. The subprime auto lender catered to those “buy-here-pay-here” dealerships that cater to those with bad credit. The people cannot pay their loans and the subprime lenders are folding. Delinquencies are rising, repossessions are surging, and the auto-loan market is signaling stresses in the broader economy.
The same issue happened in September with Tricolor Holdings when it filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation. Primalend Capital Partners’ assets and liabilities are estimated to be between $100 million and $500 million, as this was no small lender. The auto loan market in the US has seen balances double over the past 12 years. Subprime borrowers have faced the steepest repercussions, with 6.6% of borrowers currently 60 days past due on auto loans, or the highest rate of delinquency on record.
Auto lenders have $1.66 trillion in outstanding loans across the nation, 5% of which are at least 90 days late, up 12.6% YoY. Vehicle costs have soared in recent years, with the average price for a new vehicle coming in at $50,000. Twenty percent of new car owners are paying over $1,000 monthly for their autos.
New car loans have hit 9%, but used cars have hit nearly 14% and buyers seeking buy-here-pay-here loans are willing to take on an even higher fee. Expenses on car repairs alone have soared 33% since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.
Vehicle repossessions are at their highest level since 2009 during the Great Recession. The trend naturally correlates to historic highs in consumer debt, which spreads into every facet of the economy. The big banks like Barclays and JPMorgan are also taking on hundreds of millions in losses related to these failures and credit stress is on the rise. Cars are essential for employment in the majority of the nation and subprime borrowers are willing to take on more debt, even when they do not have the funds, to access transportation. This is a massive red flag, especially given the rising rate of unemployment. Consumers have been stretched too thin and it will cause a ripple effect throughout the economy.
Posted originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Japan has strictly regulated, if not banned, the majority of defense exports for over three decades. Japan recently outbid Germany for a lucrative contract to export submarines to Australia, marking the first major defense contract in years. Japan also assisted the US in creating Patriot missiles that have been in high demand since the start of the war in Ukraine. Under new leadership, Japan plans to remove bans on defense exports.
The Liberal Democratic Party was aligned with the Buddhist Party Komeito and essentially took a pacifist stance. Critics accused Komeito of falling under Beijing’s influence and prioritizing amity to prevent the nation from increasing its adherence to and loyalty to NATO and the West.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, have taken a nationalist stance and plan to abolish any defense export restrictions. The “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology” currently provides guidelines for Japan’s defense trade.
The Three Principles:
Prohibition Principle: Transfers are prohibited in specific cases—such as when they would violate Japan’s treaty obligations, U.N. Security Council resolutions, or are destined for countries involved in international conflicts or subject to UN measures for peace and security.
Permissible Cases Principle: Transfers may be permitted only if they promote international peace, cooperation, or Japan’s own security, and must undergo rigorous, transparent examination. This process aims to support humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, peacekeeping, counter-terrorism, anti-piracy operations, and capacity building.
Control Principle: Every transfer requires strict controls against the equipment being repurposed for unauthorized uses or being transferred to third countries. Recipient governments must obtain Japan’s prior consent for any change in use or third-party transfers.
Japan must go through third parties to transfer or export weapons. Politicians must craft creative rhetoric to pretend that all defense trade adheres to the Three Principles. New PM Takaichi would like Japan to operate as a “normal” country that does not need to restrict defense to peacemaking obligations. China, Russia, and North Korea are now openly viewed as a threat.
Japan will not become a mega defense manufacturer overnight, but the move is quite a historic break from decades of postwar pacifism. The new administration plans to increase spending on military and defense to 2% of GDP by March 2026 as it prepares to protect itself beyond the shield of the US.
There are 42 million Americans at risk of losing access to SNAP food stamp benefits due to the prolonged government shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) does not have the ability to continue funding the program and funds will run dry on November 1. It is more alarming that one in ten Americans currently receives some form of government aid.
The USDA cannot pull funds from other sources such as school meals or formula for infants, despite the Democrats’ insistence that it taps into the $5 billion fund to cover the gap. “The contingency fund is a source of funds for contingencies, such as the Disaster SNAP program, which provides food purchasing benefits for individuals in disaster areas, including natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods, that can come on quickly and without notice,” the USDA pointed out. There is no national emergency; there is a political clash that has halted all funding.
“Senate Democrats have now voted 12 times to not fund the food stamp program, also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),” the memo continued. “Bottom line, the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 1. We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats. They can continue to hold out for healthcare for illegal aliens and gender mutilation procedures or reopen the government so mothers, babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive critical nutrition assistance,” the department said.
The federal government spends $9 billion per month to fund SNAP food assistance programs. Again, one out of every ten Americans is receiving aid from this program, up 12.3% on an annual basis. SNAP is the largest social support program in the United States. The average recipient receives around $190, but the payout largely depends on household size, geographic location, and certain deductions. The government believes that the average participant should spend 30% of their income on food, and benefits are typically calculated by subtracting 30% of net income from the federal maximum for household size.
For fiscal year 2025, a household of one qualifies with a net monthly income up to $1,255 and a gross monthly income up to $1,632, while a household of two qualifies with a net monthly income up to $1,704 and a gross income up to $2,215. Around 73% of households receiving benefits live at 100% below the poverty line. Two-thirds of households receiving benefits include children living with a single parent. Only 28% of households have earned income, while 61% receive additional unearned aid from the government.
There is a welfare crisis in this nation. There are those who need assistance due to age, disability, or a temporary supplement due to loss income or personal crisis. However, most of the people living on government welfare are not working full-time jobs. Kids have become currency for the welfare state as people receive more for reproducing. Two-thirds of SNAP recipients have children in the household. Those with children under 14 years of age do not need to work to receive benefits. Everyone else can either work part-time for 20 hours per week, volunteer, or continue education to receive government aid.
The national debt continues to reach record highs while the welfare state increases. Americans have the option to simply not work and live off of other taxpayers. There are those who need the assistance as they cannot work or paid into the system and need temporary reprieve. Yet, 1 in 10 Americans living off Uncle Sam is wholly unsustainable and indicative of a failed society.
Andrew Cuomo’s campaign just posted — and quickly deleted — this AI-generated ad depicting “criminals for Zohran Mamdani.”
It is 50 years since NYC had its last bankruptcy crisis in October 1975. President Gerald Ford initially opposed a federal bailout, leading to the famous October 30, 1975, New York Daily News headline: “FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD.” We will run the models using the Mamdani method for a possible victory. It looks like such a victory will deliver New York City its just dues as 2026 appears to be a fiscal crisis, and it will be 51.6 years from the 1975 Crisis.
Wall Street has been moving to Miami – the equivalent of NYC with sun, minus all the extreme Marxism that infects NYC.
I urge everyone to read my Peace Proposal that details the intricacies of restoring global order. The importance of restoring peace is paramount. Without peace, we will be forced to endure World War III—the destruction and loss of life is unfathomable. Share this document with whoever is willing to listen.
The core of the peace plan is as follows. Yet, it is essential to read the full proposal to understand why these solutions could restore peace and change the course of history.
A plausible scenario / Restoration Deal Package
Putting the above together, a possible realistic “Restoration Deal” (from Russia’s perspective) might look like this:
Russia agrees to end the Ukrainian War in return for the honoring of the Minsk Agreement, a freeze of conflict lines, and allow the Donbas to vote on their basic human right to decide their own fate
In return, the U.S. (and EU) lift key sanctions on energy, rare earth exports, and financial transactions in stages
Russia commits to independent oversight (by international monitors) of resource exports, pricing, and revenue accounting
What the U.S. might realistically demand
(and what Russia would have to give)
From the U.S. (and allies) side, the demands would likely include:
Full transparency, auditing, and verification (to ensure that Russia does not exploit the relief to fund further military aggression)
Oversight on technology transfers and security constraints
Guarantees that lifted sanctions are reversible if Russia reneges
Some quid pro quo on Ukraine: withdrawal, territorial concessions, ceasefire, no reparations payments for Ukraine
Human rights, protection of minority groups, recognition of international law norms, and any Ukrainians located in the Donbas should be compensated to vacate the region
Russia would effectively have to offer more than just trade goods—it would have to offer political concessions, oversight, and legal guarantees that would enable it to join the world economy as an equal partner
Would such a deal restore Russia’s economy?
These proposals will help stabilize and revive parts of the Russian economy, but it will take time to establish a full “restoration” since that is not possible in the short-term. Some likely outcomes:
Increased export revenues from resource and rare-earth deals
Inflow of foreign investment (if investor confidence returns)
Technology and capacity rebuild via joint ventures
Partial reintegration into global financial systems (banking, capital markets)
Pressure/drive for domestic reforms (if tied to the deal)
If Trump stops listening to these losers who have never won a single war to date yet have created the largest perpetual rolling debt for their personal hatreds. Perhaps we stand a chance for peace. In these meetings with Zelensky, Trump must abandon Europe and the Neocons and be the real peacemaker. Zelensky must be stripped of his arrogant, greedy power.
My ultimatum would be simple
(1)You will honor the Minsk Agreement and allow the people of the Donbas to vote on their human right to remain as part of Ukraine, which hates their very existence and has engaged in ethnic cleansing.
(2) If Zelensky refuses, I will impose sanctions on Ukraine, and NO American company will be allowed to invest in Ukraine to cut off his trillion-dollar rebuild dream to become the richest billionaire of Ukraine.
(3) If NATO or the EU refuses to honor the very agreement that they signed, the US will withdraw from NATO.
(4) We cut a deal with Russia, allowing American companies to enter joint ventures in Russia to exploit the rare earths and resources with a joint guarantee that their investments will be safe.
(5) All sanctions of Russia are to be lifted, including the Magnitsky Act, with the sole exception of sanctions that were against individual spies.
(6) Agree to do a joint venture in the Arctic and Antarctica for natural resources and accept Putin’s proposal for a tunnel to Alaska.
Bottom line
(1) Drop all Sanctions
(2) Allow Joint Venture in Russia Jointly Guaranteed
(3) Agree to establish free trade zones
(4) Allow the Tunnel from Russia to Alaska
(5) EU must honor the Minsk Agreement or the USA exits NATO
(6) Ukraine must allow elections and must honor the Minsk Agreement or executive order prohibits all investment in Ukraine by any American company directly or indirectly
(7) If the Donbas votes to separate as in Czechoslovakia and in the Balkans, then they are to recognized by the United Nations or US withdraws all support for the United Nations.
Economic decline produces tensions, and this is what we are witnessing on a global scale, primarily due in part to the crisis in sovereign debts that nations are increasingly finding more difficult to service. The risk of a sanction producing war is far greater during an economic contraction, especially when Russia looks at this as a confrontation with NATO rather than Ukraine.
Posted originally on Oct 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Companies are downsizing as the future looks bleak. Third-nation outsourcing is prevalent, and the domestic workforce is tightening. Several corporations shrank their workforce significantly this year in a trend that will continue as the economy turns down.
GEICO insurance company, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, reduced its workforce by 30,000 positions. Insurance may have seemed like a stable industry, but insurers are facing high competition and lower margins. The company believes it can save $20 billion annually by scaling its workforce and moving some of its operations to Florida. Many of these positions related to network management, data, security operations, and customer service are now automated.
Intel Corporation shed 24,000 positions this year but plans to continue layoffs through the rest of Q4. Intel believes it only needs to retain 75,000 “core employees” from the initial 99,500 it had at the beginning of the year. Semiconductor manufacturing is of the utmost importance, and resources must be redirected toward manufacturing. A downsizing of this size signals a complete structural change in the company.
At the beginning of the tariff debacle, UPS announced it was cutting 20,000 jobs. The market is extremely competitive, and margins have slimmed due to tariffs and supply chain issues. UPS believes it is “future-proofing” its company by relying more on automation than human workers. Warehouses and distribution centers have been the first line of attack for AI replacement.
Nissan was forced to close seven manufacturing plants due to weak sales. The company initially planned to slim its workforce by 11,000 but cuts nearly doubled to 20,000. The auto industry has been weakened on a global basis. Chevron also plans to cut its workforce by up to 20% by the end of 2026. Ford eliminated bonuses for 3,300 managers and eliminated 1,000 manufacturing jobs. Stellantis eliminated 900 workers and Tesla laid off 10% of its global workforce amid weakened EV demand and stiff competition from China.
Companies are seeking to increase their slim margins by streamlining operations and are quick to automate positions when possible. As noted last week, Amazon, the second-largest employer in the USA, believes it can cut its workforce by 600,000 within the next few years. Lowering the cost of borrowing will not entice companies to take on more debt. Conditions have changed and companies plan to cut costs rather than profits. It is clear which industries are facing challenging times ahead as the world economy turns down.
Posted originally on Oct 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Japan’s Prime Minister-in-waiting Sanae Takaichi has been dubbed Japan’s Donald Trump for her nationalist views. Japan does not have a massive refugee problem. The small nation has always sought to preserve its cultural identity throughout history, and as such, has maintained a high-trust society. Takaichi warned that Japan will not bend to globalist forces, pointing the finger at Europe and vowing to maintain Japan’s individuality.
“Unchecked immigration has led to serious social problems in parts of Europe. Japan must not repeat those mistakes,” Japan’s first female prime minister warned.
Takaichi pointed to Europe’s “open border” failure that led to unrest and a decaying society. Japan will continue to remain “socially stable and culturally intact.” The media is portraying her as anti-immigration, but there is a vast difference between immigration and illegal migration. “We will support foreign workers in sectors that truly need them, but only those who have the skills, discipline, and respect for our way of life,” she said in a separate interview.
Societies have historically crumbled through invading forces. Europe is the unfortunate case study for what happens when leaders abandon all national policies from migration to monetary concerns.
“Japan is a country with a beautiful culture and social harmony that must be protected. We welcome foreigners who respect our laws and customs, but will respond firmly to those who do not,” she added. Japan does not need to implement mass deportation programs because it never adopted open border policies. Globalist nations have been urging Japan to drop security and permit more unchecked “refugees” into its lands. Japan is standing tall amid Takaichi’s rule and prioritizing citizens over globalist causes.
Posted originally on Oct 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: You said that Trump is listening to the Neocons in his administration and in DC. Would you please name names? Why did Trump back off on the Tomahawks?
GW
ANSWER: I believe the Neocons influencing Trump are Rubio, Bessert (Ex-Soros now running Treasury), and Lindsey Graham, among others. I believe all are war mongers, and I believe that they have sold to Trump this idea that the US is all-powerful and can destroy Russia in the blink of an eye. They have convinced a PAWN to wrongly believe it is a QUEEN on the chessboard of geopolitics. I believe it was Rubio who sabotaged the Budapest meeting because they, NATO, and the EU do not want peace.
I have been dealing with governments for 50 years. They know I have back-channels in every direction. You cannot intimidate Putin into surrendering. If he did, he is either dead by the hand of a Russian Neocon, like JFK was assassinated by our Neocons (CIA), or there will be a third coup as they did to Khruschev after the Cuban Missile Crisis, and then against Gorbachev when the Russian Neocons feared he would accept the offer to join NATO. Putin made it clear that no self-respecting country can back down to such absurd pressure.
This is not Colombia or Venezuela. Russia is an equal partner in military power, and this Neocon tactic of always imposing sanctions is asinine and foolish. They cannot point to a single incident in which sanctions have ever worked even once. These neocons have NEVER won a single war. In the words of Trump, for anyone else, they are LOSERS!
For the life of me, in Trump’s language, the Neocons are a herd of losers who are the greatest threat to humanity, far more than Putin. For they never repent and can only see as far as the end of their nose. They are incapable of ever changing their mind, and they are certainly incapable of ever learning from their last mistake. Rubio has been a Neocon for as long as I know.
Let me explain something so nobody gets their hopes up. Yes, I was called in for a debriefing and I was asked to write a peace proposal. NATO’s Neocon leader Rutte admitted there was no peace proposal on the table. However, I was NOT called in by Trump directly. I did ask whether this was on the side, and I was told no, that President Trump sanctioned it. That does NOT mean they will act on the proposal I spent 4 days drafting. I was shocked that I was even asked – absolutely. They did listen, for they knew my position beforehand.
Trump can pretend he is not giving weapons to Ukraine but handing them to NATO, whom Trump stated that they can “do with them as they like.” I had expected more from him than this. That was a grave mistake. These Neocons have ensured that whatever possible dialogue between Putin and Trump has taken a shot in the head. Putin said that this is an “unfriendly act,” and Medvedev said rightly so that this is an “act of war.” Anyone who knows their military history knows that is a true statement and NOT Russia propaganda or threats.
Trump can rewrite history and claim this war would never have taken place under him, but that is not true. Trump was the first to give Ukraine lethal weapons on December 24th, 2017. The decision to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine during Donald Trump’s first term was the result of a broad consensus within his administration and pressure from Congress, rather than a single person telling him to do it.
The British counterfeited American currency to undermine the US economy, to disrupt its ability to fund the war, precisely what Trump is doing to Russia. Both Hitler and Napoleon also counterfeited British currency to undermine the UK economy, so they too could not fund the war against Germany under Hitler or France under Napoleon.
First of all, Tomahawks are capable of carrying a nuclear bomb. From a Russian perspective, they MUST respond assuming that they are carrying a nuke. Putin gave an interview, and he mentioned the Tomahawks. Putin bluntly stated that if Trump stupidly handed this NATO puppet Zelensky, the response would be “serious if not stunning.”
There is no question that if I were Putin, I would be forced to respond with such overwhelming force that Ukraine would be buried in the ashes of geopolitical insanity, only to be discovered by archaeologists a 1,000 years from now. There is no way these Neocons will ever invite Putin to their home for dinner. Just as Trump admitted that Zelensky and Putin hate each other, the same is true with these Neocons. It’s like expecting Iran and Israel to become friends.
We are closer to nuclear war today than we were in 1961 with Berlin and 1962 with Cuba. Zelensky is irrational, corrupt, and consumed with hatred. He has no business negotiating anything on behalf of the Ukrainian people when his polls have collapsed to 23%. He should not even be allowed to represent dogs in Ukraine, let alone people.
By 1961, both the US and the USSR had large, sophisticated nuclear arsenals and multiple delivery systems (long-range bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles). The Berlin confrontation was not in a distant theater like Korea, but in the heart of Europe, where US and Soviet troops faced each other directly with the only the Berlin Wall separating the two adversaries.
The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is rightly considered the moment the world came closest to nuclear war. The 1961 Berlin Crisis was a direct precursor. Khrushchev was emboldened after seeing what he perceived as Kennedy’s weakness during the 1961 Vienna summit. He then gambled again by placing missiles in Cuba in 1962, partly to pressure the US over Berlin. The end of the 51.6-year ECM cycle from that confrontation brought us to 2014 with the beginning of the Ukrainian civil war.
What we must understand is that back then, in the ’60s, it was just two players: USA vs. USSR. Today, this is a multipolar crisis with so many people with nukes from Israel and Pakistan, India, North Korea, and all of this has a central backstop – China. The idea that if we all had nukes, that would prevent WWIII. That has proven to be nonsense. Nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent. Putin tries to point out this crisis, and the West interprets it as him threatening the West, rather than as an attempt to warn it. Is this where you really want to go?
Our Neocons are a threat to humanity. They care nothing about the people or the nation. All they see is no different from a football game that they have to win at all costs. Never forget, Russia and China also have their Neocons. They should all be locked in a room, given a sword, and told to settle their disputes until only one person remains standing.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 