This is a must read book

There was a book written and then published by Broadway Books in 1997 titled The Fourth Turning an American Prophecy that was written by William Strauss and Neil Howe. There is also a web site available today for those that want the details of the book, just Google The Fourth Turning.  This section on social behavior is taken from the information contained in that excellent book.  These are not my ideas but after reading their book some thirteen years ago it is my belief that Strauss and Howe were 100% correct in their analysis.

This book is about people and how they collectively interact and respond to current events. This is not about “economics” nor is it about “government” and “politics” but it is how the people see and respond to those three always hot subjects. The key premise in the book is that “social” time is not linear.  So if “social” time is not linear then it must be cyclical and if it is cyclical then there must be a pattern to the cycles. Or another way of looking at this is that there are observed patterns of social behavior that seem to repeat themselves. Many philosophers have seen these cycles or patterns and many have written about them from various aspects.

Many of those that study these subjects have seen that large groups of people raised in a society seem to follow a common thread through life.  They are identified by words like a generation or a cohort and despite all the differences that exist between the individuals within a generation there do appear to be a common mood among them. The authors gave names to these generations, some of which we are familiar with. Currently we have the Boomers and the 13er’s and a few GI’s still around. My generation the old Silent generation lives up to its name as hardily anybody today knows that they fall between the GI’s and the Boomers. The authors of the Fourth Turning have done an excellent job of summing all the previous work on this subject going back thousands of years and giving the patterns logical sense.

The authors have found that all the previous work could all be summarized and brought together into one common line of thought or theory which they call the Four Turnings.  The Four Turnings, called a Saeculum by the Romans relate, according to the authors, to four repeating patterns that occur as a result of the four repeating generational “moods.” These social “moods” are based on how a generation or cohort was raised and is given an archetype name by the authors.  These archetypes follow one another in an almost unbroken chain going back well over 576 years now (from 2011) to the period of the English retreat from France in 1435 – 1459 which was a ‘crisis’ and both the end of the previous Saeculum and the beginning of the new one for them.

Since a generation is normally between ~20 and ~25 years long, four generations in a cycle make for a repeating pattern of between ~80 and ~100 years. However since the American civil war the pattern seems to be shortening.  That does coincide with advances in technology which maybe the reason. The Saeculum, and the archetypes (identified by Strauss and Howe) match well with what we can see looking back in time by studying the writings of the various periods. These behavior patterns or social patterns are historically well documented in the writing of the various periods. By the way the Saeculum is also the length of a long human life.  What this means is that there are few people alive at the end of a Saeculum that have first hand knowledge of the Last crisis.  Just like today where those GI’s still alive and who fought WW II as the privates and junior officers are now all well over 85 and all the leaders of that period are long gone.

We have now identified several elements that will need to be explained, however it should be noted that they are all interrelated and exist as a unit.  They can not be looked at individually outside the context of the “pattern.”  Keeping that in mind the Saeculum is the pattern. The Saeculum is made of the four possible combinations of Archetypes that can occur.  The Archetype is the reoccurring “mood” that results from the existence of the pattern contained in the Saeculum.  So the very existence of the current Saeculum is a result of the ‘crises from the previous Saeculum.

As defined in the previous paragraph a Saeculum contains four reoccurring patterns that start with the resolution of some Crisis. The authors have identified these four reoccurring patterns as a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling and a Crisis.  When the Crisis ends it is normally the culmination of some major defining war.  The last defining war was WW II which ended the Great Power Saeculum in 1945.

The change from one stage, or pattern, to the next the authors call a Turning hence the use of Turning in the name of their Book.  The other word used in the title Fourth comes from their prediction that in the early ‘00s we would enter into the Fourth Turning of the current Saeculum, which they call the Millennial Saeculum.  These are the four periods identified by the authors and the change from one to the next is the Turning they talk about.

The First Turning results in a High, an upbeat ear of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the previous old values regime then in decay.

The Second Turning results in an Awakening, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.

The Third Turing results in an Unraveling, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the new old civic order decays and the new values regime takes hold.

The Forth Turning results in a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the new values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one creating conflict.

These periods or moods create in society a particular way that the children of that society in that period of time are raised; the critical period for those children is the first 5 years of life.  That in turns creates, in those Children, a way that they look at things. Each of the generations born in the past 576 years has been born into one of these four identified periods, which were just explained.  Depending which one they are born in they become one of the four possible archetypes identified by the authors.  This pattern of beliefs that they have for life is based almost solely on the “social” events in play when they are born, they are:

A Prophet generation is born during a High, grows up as increasingly indulged post-crises children, comes of age as the narcissistic young crusaders of an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic mid-life’s, and emerges as wise elders guiding the next Crisis. Today these are the infamous Boomers who are now in control of all aspects of America from government through Industry the very institutions that many of them tried to destroy in the ‘60’s and early ‘70’s. Profits bring change. Since Teddy Roosevelt there have been 7 Profit Presidents.

A Nomad generation is born during an Awakening, grows up as under protected children during an Awakening, comes to age as the alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, and mellows into pragmatic mid life leaders. These are the Generation X or the 13th Generation (13er’s) that are now taking over mid level positions in Government and Industry.  Nomads make pragmatic leaders. Since Teddy Roosevelt there have been 2 Nomad Presidents.

A Hero generation is born during an Unraveling, grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as the heroic young team workers of a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as energetic mid-life’s, and emerges as powerful elders attacked by the next Awakening.  These are the born but yet to be named cohort, maybe the Millennial’s, that are the new Hero’s that like their older counter parts the GI’s, are going to be the ones that straighten out the mess that is coming. Hero’s bring stability. Since Teddy Roosevelt there have been 7 Hero Presidents.

An Artist generation is born during a Crisis, grows up as overprotected children during that Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-crisis world, breaks free as indecisive mid-life leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathic post-Awakening elders. Artists make for compromisers. Since Teddy Roosevelt there have been 3 Artist Presidents. These children have yet to be named as they are only now being born.

The four generations making up the Saeculum, as listed above, are also derived from the four cycles of life as the people grow from childhood into Elderhood. However, since the time of the Romans when four periods of life was considered the normal advances in medicine and public health have allowed more people to survive beyond Elder hood and so the authors added a fifth category which they call Late Elder hood.

We are seeing some of the issues with that, “extra life,” now with things like the rising costs of medical treatments and the costs of retirement; Social Security and Medicare. Although specific ages have been given here they are not fixed by any means and there is a fair amount of variability to them which gives the 80 to 100 years length to the Saeculum. Although identified the Late Elder hood grouping is not shown in their analysis but if advances continue especially those that keep an Individual mentally alert longer this four period Saeculum of the authors will no longer be valid.  That may actually be good for the remembrance of past crises may help to prevent or at least mitigate future ones.

Childhood (pueritia, ages 0 – 20); social role: growth (receiving nurture, acquiring vales)

Young Adulthood (iuventus, ages 21 – 41): social role: vitality (serving institutions, testing values)

Mid life (virilitas, ages 42 – 62); social role: power (managing institutions, applying values)

Elder hood (senectus, ages 63-83); social role leadership (leading institutions, transferring values)

Late Elder hood (ages 84 plus); social role: dependence (receiving comfort from institutions, remembering values)

The current split, or polarization, in the country is a result of the Boomer generation (The Prophets) moving as they grow older into all the key power positions in the government and the private sector.  They are both the liberals and progressives and they are also the conservatives and the Tea Party and since they are all Prophets they will feel very strongly about their beliefs and much like what happened during the American Civil War it is very, very likely that this split will result in a second American Civil War.

The Profits are very prone to become involved in causes and in many cases they do not see the ramifications of what they do.  For this reason the following thought was developed

David Pristash, “Passion of purpose does not constitute correctness of thought.”

Another civil war would be bad enough but throw in the Muslim issue with the War On Terror (WOT) that is now the “Overseas Contingency Operation” and the growing presence of Chinese influence and there is no telling how bad things could get if America turns to internal fighting.  Given that it’s American military power that keeps many of the word rouge states in line, taking that deterrent away spells big trouble for many parts of the world.

One last comment here that is my idea not found in the book, at least as I remember it. A strong case can be made that there are two primary drivers at work here.  The Hero archetype that builds a new social structure and then Prophet Archetype that tears it down.  In-between we have two secondary archetypes the Nomads and the Artists whose purpose it would seem is to mitigate the effects of the other two since they fall in-between them on both sides.