Domestic Demand Wanes in China


Posted originally on Jan 21, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

China Taiwan Map

China’s GDP advanced by 4.5% in Q4 2025, slightly down from the 4.8% in Q3. Economic output for the year was 5%, in line with the target and aided by a strong industrial output of 5.2% in December. Notably, retail sales grew at a slow pace of 0.9% for the month, and growth slowed 4.5% YoY, highlighting the decline in domestic demand.

When an economy is truly healthy, domestic demand leads. The consumer spends, business expands, imports rise, and you see balanced growth. Instead, what we are seeing is the opposite. External trade is carrying the headline numbers while the internal economy becomes more fragile.

Beijing is leaning on industrial activity and exports, and this is where the imbalance becomes glaring. China posted a nearly $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, with exports rising about 5.5% even as imports showed little growth. China is selling to the world because it cannot fully absorb production domestically.

You also see this in the real estate collapse and the investment drag. Property has been the primary store of wealth and confidence for the Chinese. Reuters noted property investment fell 17.2% in 2025 and that consumption and investment are dragging while exports remain robust.

This is precisely why I have warned for years that you cannot look at “trade surplus” as some trophy without understanding the internal dynamics. The surplus is exploding because domestic demand is not keeping pace. Imports are not surging because the internal consumer and internal business confidence are not driving the same kind of pull. This is the classic imbalance of an economy becoming dependent on external demand. China is still on the rise long-term, but they’re looking at an economy that has become one-sided, which can be dangerous in today’s landscape of trade wars, regulations, supply chain constraints, and war itself.

Ahead of Trump’s Arrival to Davos, Secretary Bessent Holds a Press Conference


Posted originally on CTH on January 21, 2026 | Sundance 

A large U.S. delegation, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio are traveling with President Trump tonight to Davos.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and all of the key members of the cabinet are already there.

According to the official WEF schedule, President Donald Trump’s address is in the mid‑afternoon Wednesday January 21, with the Davos session set for 2:30 to 3:15 p.m. local time (8:30 to 9:15 a.m. ET).

The entire world will be watching this speech considering the geopolitical events of the past year, the current trajectory of global relationships that has been scrambled by President Trump, and anticipation of this moment being the inflection point in Western political history.

On the tech side, all of the information bots under the control of Canada, the U.K, Australia and the global intelligence apparatus will be turned on to control and shape internet opinion of President Trump’s speech.  The need for control is a reaction to fear. Do not discount the stakes at play; this is beyond the trillions – this is everything.  For the opposition to President Trump this is a zero-sum conflict.

Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent held a press conference earlier today to absorb and address some of the key questions from the international media assembly (SEE BELOW).  Combined with feedback from Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer, the speech content is being finalized on the flight between President Trump and Secretary Rubio.

Trump’s Davos schedule, via the White House. Depart DC Tuesday evening

Wednesday in Davos:
2:10 PM – 8:10 am ET – Greets WEF leadership
2:30 PM – 8:30 am ET – Delivers his Davos speech
3:45 PM – 9:45 am ET – Bilats and meetings
5:25 PM – 11:25 am ET – Business reception

Thursday
10:30 AM – 4:30 am ET – Board of Peace Charter Announcement

Then back home.

President Trump Asked Directly if He Wants Peace Board to Replace The United Nations


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance 

During a press conference earlier today from the White House briefing room, President Donald Trump was asked directly if his “Board of Peace” organization is going to substantively replace The United Nations assembly.  In response to the question President Trump said, “Well it might.”

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Border Patrol and ICE Officials Hold a Press Conference Discussing Ongoing Targeted Operations in Minneapolis, Minnesota


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance

Border Patrol Commander at Large Greg Bovino and ICE Executive Associate Director of Enforcement and Removal Operations Marcos Charles hold a press briefing to discuss and answer questions about ongoing operations in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The questions begin at 16:18 of the video below.

Greg Bovino notes the difference in Minneapolis, Minnesota is that the leftist groups are more organized and in direct communication with the state and local government.  If you read between the lines what Bovino is saying is that anarchists, professional leftists and radical groups are in control of the government within the region.  There is no distinction between the political officials in Minnesota and the leadership of the activists. WATCH:

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DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Minneapolis Church Terrorism: “Arrests are Coming” – “Next Several Hours”


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance 

Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem discusses the current status of the DOJ review into Minneapolis, Minnesota.  The content of the interview was later shared on Noem’s X account with the message, “arrests are coming.”

The entire segment with Greta Van Susteren is worth watching, but I’ve prompted it to the section that matters.  WATCH:

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Howard Lutnick: “Globalism Has Failed”…


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance 

And so, it begins.  The fully engaged Trump MAGAnomic team begin their outlines to the World Economic Forum in Davos with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and the top line announcement, “Globalism has failed the United States of America.”

Appearing on an economic panel with various pontificating economic ministers of the elitist class, Secretary Lutnick begins to confront the panel and the audience with the big picture objective of the Trump administration.  Using real world examples, current citations highlighting the behavior of the assembled political representatives, Lutnick begins to tell them exactly what the reason are for President Trump’s policy.

Why would the EU destroy it’s own energy policy?  “Why would Europe agree to be ‘net-zero’ in 2030, when they don’t make a battery,” he asked.  Thus, the pragmatic realism of policy intersects with the hypocritical action and creates an outcome that no one can explain.  “So, if they go 2030, they are intentionally deciding to be subservient to China who makes the batteries,” he continued.  This makes absolutely no sense.

And he didn’t stop there.  WATCH:

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White House Press Briefing with “Special Guest” – 1:00pm ET Livestream


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt brings special guest to the podium for a 1:00pm ET press briefing.  Livestream links below.

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Oh Dear – The Wall Street Journal Just Realized, President Trump is Making U.N. Functionally Obsolescent


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance | 238 

This is funny.  The Wall Street Journal just realized the purpose of President Trump inviting world leaders to a new structure of global leadership.

As the outlet contemplates the mission of the “Gaza Board” they recognize the bigger intention, the nullification of the United Nations.

WASHINGTON DC – President Trump has expanded the mission of his proposed Gaza Board of Peace into a global body that would take on the role mediating conflicts currently held by the United Nations and carry a $1 billion fee for a permanent seat, according to a charter sent to prospective members.

[…] “Too many approaches to peace-building foster perpetual dependency, and institutionalize crisis rather than leading people beyond it,” the charter’s preamble says, calling for “a coalition of willing States committed to practical cooperation and effective action.”

[…] The expansive mandate underscored Trump’s accelerating push to replace the international system established by the U.S. after World War II, which he has attacked for years as ineffective, with a new structure built around himself that bypasses existing multilateral institutions. Earlier this month he pulled the U.S. out of 31 U.N. agencies and bodies, saying they operated “contrary to U.S. national interests.”

Countries that agree to join the board could serve for a three-year term, but that limit would be waived for countries that agree to contribute $1 billion in cash to the board, according to the charter, which was previously reported by Bloomberg. The charter doesn’t say how the fees will be used.

“It’s hard not to read this as an attempt to establish a precedent in Gaza that could be used elsewhere in terms of saying that Trump is going to be calling the global shots here, and you either fall in line or you’re not part of the process,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. (read more)

Figured that out all on their own, did they?

[…] “The Board of Peace is an international organization that seeks to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict,” it says.

[…] Around 60 governments have received invitations to join the board, but the reaction from most has been cautious so far. Asked Monday about the Trump plan, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters: “We’re talking to allies about the terms of the Board of Peace.”

France has been asked to join the board but plans to decline the offer for now because the charter goes beyond responsibility for Gaza and raises questions about the impact it would have on the U.N., according to a French official.

[…] Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on X he had been invited onto the board and had already accepted. Orbán has positioned himself as one of the loudest advocates for Trump’s peace efforts in Ukraine. “We have, of course, accepted this honourable invitation,” Orbán said.

The king of Morocco, Mohammed VI, and the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, also announced they would join the board, officials from each country said on social-media posts that didn’t mention the $1 billion fee for a permanent seat.

[…] As chairman, Trump would have wide authority over the new organization, with the power to appoint and remove member states, as well as a veto over its decisions. The charter specifies that the board’s decisions will be “made by a majority of the member states present and voting, subject to the approval of the chairman, who may also cast a vote in his capacity as chairman in the event of a tie.”

It also reserves for the chairman the “exclusive authority” to create other entities to carry out the board’s mission.

The charter specifies that “Donald J. Trump shall serve as inaugural Chairman,” and it appears to outline a succession procedure that ensures he or a handpicked successor would remain in the position indefinitely.

“Replacement of the Chairman may occur only following voluntary resignation or as a result of incapacity,” it says. In that event, “the Chairman’s designated successor shall immediately assume the position of the Chairman.” (read more)

“Complicated business, folks. Complicated business.” ~DJT

Trump’s Davos schedule, via the White House. Depart DC Tuesday evening

Wednesday in Davos:
2:10 PM – Greets WEF leadership
2:30 PM – Delivers his Davos speech
3:45 PM – Bilats and meetings
5:25 PM – Business reception

Thursday
10:30 AM – Board of Peace Charter Announcement

Then back home.

President Trump Previews His Trip to Davos and Creation of World Peace Board Using Gaza


Posted originally on CTH on January 20, 2026 | Sundance

President Trump talks to the media last night as he returns to the White House.  Several interesting responses to questions about Greenland, Norway, his upcoming trip to Davos and the creation of the world peace board using Gaza as the first assembly.  WATCH:

“Let’s put it this way, it’s going to be a very interesting Davos.”

WarRoom Live


Posted originally on Rumble on Bannon War Room on: January 19, 2026